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RJ’s 2010 NFL Picks – Week Ten

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I went 9-4 last week. That puts me at 72-58 for the season. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN. Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week Ten:

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 11

Baltimore (6-2) at Atlanta (6-2) – 8:20 PM [LINE: Atlanta by 1.5]

This should be an excellent game, which of course I’ll miss because my cable provider does not offer the NFL Network. Atlanta is undefeated at home.

RJ’s Pick: Atlanta by 6

 

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 14

Detroit (2-6) at Buffalo (0-8) – 1:00 PM [LINE: Buffalo by 3]

If you’re a Detroit Lions fan, the first half of the season has brought some good news and some bad news. The good news: The Lions have been competitive in every game they’ve played, they can put a lot of points up on the board, and their defensive front four are solid. The bad news: Their franchise quarterback is apparently made out of balsa wood, and their head coach seems to think sending a 307-pound defensive tackle out to try extra points without warming up is a good idea.

If you’re a Buffalo Bills fan, I’m so very, very sorry.

RJ’s Pick: Detroit by 5

 

Minnesota (3-5) at Chicago (5-3) – 1:00 PM [LINE: Minnesota by 1]

The Vikings barely beat Arizona at home last week. Their other two victories this season: barely beating the Cowboys at home and beating the Lions at home. The combined record of the three teams they’ve defeated is 6-18. Minnesota is winless on the road this season. I have no idea why they are favored in this one, but do expect a close game.

RJ’s Pick: Chicago by 3

 

New York Jets (6-2) at Cleveland (3-5) – 1:00 PM [LINE: Jets by 3]

The Browns have won two straight. Rookie QB Colt McCoy looked pretty good against the Patriots last week, but the Jets defense will offer a much greater challenge.

RJ’s Pick: Jets by 8

 

Tennessee (5-3) at Miami (4-4) – 1:00 PM [LINE: Pick ‘em]

I’m still not sold on the Titans. Sure they score a lot of points, but I just don’t view them as a true offensive powerhouse. Vince Young has improved quite a bit, but he’s still only the third best QB in the division (IMHO). They rely heavily on Chris Johnson to carry the offense, but he is not having the kind of season he had in his first two years in the league. And now their best receiver, Kenny Britt, is out for 6-8 weeks.

RJ’s Pick: Miami by 4

 

Cincinnati (2-6) at Indianapolis (5-3) – 1:00 PM [LINE: Indianapolis by 8]

The Bengals have lost five in a row. Is it time to fire Marvin Lewis yet?

RJ’s Pick: Indianapolis by 13

 

Houston (4-4) at Jacksonville (4-4) – 1:00 PM [LINE: Jacksonville by 1.5]

The loser of this matchup will be the only team with a losing record in the AFC South, the most competitive division in the NFL. The Texans have dropped two straight. Both teams have a shoddy defense, but at least Houston has a potent offense.

RJ’s Pick: Houston by 7

 

Carolina (1-7) at Tampa Bay (5-3) – 1:00 PM [LINE: Tampa Bay by 8]

Every year at least one team makes it into the second half of the season with a winning record and legitimate playoff hopes despite not really being good at all. For instance, in 2007 the Detroit Lions started the year 6-2, then proceeded to lose seven of their remaining eight games (and go 0-16 the following year). This year, Tampa Bay is definitely one of those teams. They are the only team in the league with both a winning record and a negative point differential (-33, to be exact).

That said, Carolina is absolutely horrible. So expect the extremely mediocre Buccaneers to go 6-3.

RJ’s Pick: Tampa Bay by 12

 

Kansas City (5-3) at Denver (2-6) – 4:05 PM [LINE: Kansas City by 1]

Denver is ranked 31st in the league against the run. Kansas City has the best rushing offense in the league. You do the math.

RJ’s Pick: Kansas City by 9

 

Seattle (4-4) at Arizona (3-5) – 4:15 PM [LINE: Arizona by 3]

The Seahawks have been outscored 74-10 in their last two games. Arizona has lost three in a row, including a loss to Seattle. This is a tough game to predict.

RJ’s Pick: Arizona by 8

 

Dallas (1-7) at New York Giants (6-2) – 4:15 PM [LINE: Giants by 13.5]

Wade Phillips is gone. Jason Garrett is the new Cowboys head coach. Can Garrett turn things around for Dallas? Probably not this week.

RJ’s Pick: Giants by 7

 

Saint Louis (4-4) at San Francisco (2-6) – 4:15 PM [LINE: San Francisco by 6]

I am officially picking the Rams to win the NFC West.

RJ’s Pick: Saint Louis by 3

 

New England (6-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2) – 8:20 PM [LINE: Pittsburgh by 4]

New England puts up the second-most points per game. The Steelers allow the fewest points per game. Pittsburgh will win, unless Tom Brady throws for 300+ yards, which he hasn’t been able to do all season.

RJ’s Pick: Pittsburgh by 1

 

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 15

Philadelphia (5-3) at Washington (4-4) – 8:30 PM [LINE: Philadelphia by 3]

McNabb vs. Vick? Or will Rex Grossman start under center for the Redskins? I don’t know for sure, since I’m writing this on a Tuesday night because of the stupid Thursday Night game. Oh, well.

RJ’s Pick: Philadelphia by 9

 

(Bye Week Teams: Green Bay, Oakland, New Orleans, San Diego)

 

If you’re interested, here is the full list of Danny Sheridan’s odds.
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About RJ

  • STM

    What game do you suggest I watch this week??

  • zingzing

    new england v pittsburg is a good game. two talented teams going at it.

    minnesota v chicago is (of course) the game i’ll be watching. one team has looked shitty beating a light schedule, the other has looked shitty beating a heavy schedule. both have their problems, but i think, despite rj’s prediction, that minnesota will pull it out. but if you want to see a bad-luck team in action, minnesota v chicago may be it. watch! as qbs gets hit and throw interceptions. watch! as receivers and running backs cough it up. watch! as coaches call ridiculous gambles and shit doesn’t pay off. watch! as easy tackles are missed and people run all over the field in e-w directions until there’s no more e-w to go.

    it’ll be an interesting game. go vikes! they can’t lose. or at least i’d never say they will. because they won’t. our defense is too good. except about the giving up points thing. and our offense is too talented. except they can’t get it together.

    still, chicago sucks. nearly lost to buffalo last week. we got this.

  • charlie doherty

    Unfortunately (for Pats fans like me) RJ, I think you will be right about the Steelers beating the Patriots this week. They can only survive so long with all the key losses they have had already (they just lost their very good field goal kicker Gostkowski for the season).

  • C2E

    Forgot to post yesterday. I’m also 72-58.

    Falcons over Ravens
    Vikings over Bears
    Jets over Browns
    Buccaneers over Panthers
    Titans over Dolphins
    Colts over Bengals
    Bills over Lions
    Texans over Jaguars
    Chiefs over Broncos
    49ers over Rams
    Giants over Cowboys
    Cardinals over Seahawks
    Steelers over Patriots
    Eagles over Redskins

  • Gray Hunter

    The Giants beat the Cowboys by 7? Are you crazy? It’ll be more like the Giants by 28. And I’m a Cowboys fan.

    Oh, heavy sigh.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Final Scores:

    ATLANTA 26, BALTIMORE 21 – RJ 1-0 [1-0 ATS]

    BILLS 14, LIONS 12 – RJ 1-1 [2-0 ATS]

    BEARS 27, VIKINGS 13 – RJ 2-1 [3-0 ATS]

    JETS 26, BROWNS 20 (in OT) – RJ 3-1 [4-0 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    MIAMI 29, TENNESSEE 17 – RJ 4-1 [5-0 ATS]

    COLTS 23, BENGALS 17 – RJ 5-1 [5-1 ATS]

    JACKSONVILLE 31, HOUSTON 24 – RJ 5-2 [5-2 ATS]

    TAMPA BAY 31, CAROLINA 16 – RJ 6-2 [6-2 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Gray Hunter:

    Looks like we were both wrong…Dallas is kicking their ass!

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    FINAL SCORES:

    DENVER 49, KC 29 – RJ 6-3 [6-3 ATS]

    SEATTLE 36, ARIZONA 18 – RJ 6-4 [6-4 ATS]

    DALLAS 33, GIANTS 20 – RJ 6-5 [7-4 ATS]

    SF 23, RAMS 20 (in OT) – RJ 6-6 [8-4 ATS]

    NE 39, STEELERS 26 – RJ 6-7 [9-4 ATS]

    EAGLES 59, REDSKINS 28 – RJ 7-7 [10-4 ATS]

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Nice to see I was basically right about this:

    “Pittsburgh will win, unless Tom Brady throws for 300+ yards, which he hasn’t been able to do all season.”

    Brady threw for 350 yards…and the Pats won.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Through ten weeks:

    79-65 straight-up

    74-63-7 against the spread

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week Ten:

    Allen 10-4
    Golic 7-7
    Hoge 7-7
    Jaworski 9-4
    Mortensen 5-9
    Schefter 7-7
    Schlereth 6-8
    Wickersham 8-6
    Accuscore 8-6
    Pick ‘em 6-8

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through ten weeks:

    Allen 74-70
    Golic 84-60
    Hoge 79-65
    Jaworski 84-49
    Mortensen 88-56
    Schefter 77-67
    Schlereth 89-55
    Wickersham 79-65
    Accuscore 89-55
    Pick ‘em 84-60