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RJ’s 2008 Election Predictions

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Four years ago, I offered my predictions on the presidential election. And I was pretty darn accurate. (A helluva lot better than those exit polls, amiright?)

This year, I'll offer my predictions on the presidential race, and also include my predictions for the Senate and House as well.

Since it's trendy, first I've got a map of the electoral vote in the popular colors, followed by a detailed breakdown by state and my predictions for the House and Senate races.

Here's the presidential race first, vote breakdown by state:

Alabama 9 – McCain 59, Obama 38, Others 3
Alaska 3 – McCain 55, Obama 39, Others 6
Arizona 10 – McCain 51, Obama 46, Others 3
Arkansas 6 – McCain 53, Obama 44, Others 3
California 55 – Obama 57, McCain 37, Others 6
Colorado 9 – Obama 50, McCain 47, Others 3
Connecticut 7 – Obama 57, McCain 41, Others 2
Delaware 3 – Obama 61, McCain 36, Others 3
DC 3 – Obama 93, McCain 5, Others 2
Florida 27 – McCain 48.5, Obama 47.5, Others 4
Georgia 15 – McCain 48, Obama 45, Others 7
Hawaii 4 – Obama 69, McCain 28, Others 3
Idaho 4 – McCain 65, Obama 31, Others 4
llinois 21 – Obama 60, McCain 37, Others 3
Indiana 11 – McCain 49, Obama 48, Others 3
Iowa 7 – Obama 54, McCain 42, Others 4
Kansas 6 – McCain 57, Obama 41, Others 2
Kentucky 8 – McCain 55, Obama 43, Others 2
Louisiana 9 – McCain 54, Obama 42, Others 4
Maine 4 – Obama 54, McCain 41, Others 5
Maryland 10 – Obama 58, McCain 38, Others 4
Massachusetts 12 – Obama 57, McCain 39, Others 4
Michigan 17 – Obama 53, McCain 43, Others 4
Minnesota 10 – Obama 53, McCain 41, Others 6
Mississippi 6 – McCain 55, Obama 43, Others 2
Missouri 11 – McCain 49, Obama 48, Others 3
Montana 3 – McCain 51, Obama 46, Others 3

Nebraska 5 – McCain 58, Obama 39, Others 3
Nevada 5 – Obama 48.1, McCain 47.9, Others 4
New Hampshire 4 – Obama 52, McCain 45, Others 3
New Jersey 15 – Obama 56, McCain 41, Others 3
New Mexico 5 – Obama 51, McCain 46, Others 3
New York 31 – Obama 60, McCain 35, Others 5
North Carolina 15 – McCain 49, Obama 48, Others 3
North Dakota 3 – McCain 50, Obama 48, Others 2
Ohio 20 – McCain 49, Obama 48, Others 3
Oklahoma 7 – McCain 61, Obama 36, Others
Oregon 7 – Obama 57, McCain 38, Others 5
Pennsylvania 21 – McCain 49.1, Obama 48.9, Others 2
Rhode Island 4 – Obama 59, McCain 38, Others 3
South Carolina 8 – McCain 56, Obama 42, Others 2
South Dakota 3 – McCain 54, Obama 44, Others 2
Tennessee 11 – McCain 55, Obama 42, Others 3
Texas 34 – McCain 54, Obama 43, Others 3
Utah 5 – McCain 62, Obama 34, Others 4
Vermont 3 – Obama 60, McCain 36, Others 4
Virginia 13 – McCain 48.6, Obama 48.4, Others 3
Washington 11 – Obama 55, McCain 41, Others 4
West Virginia 5 – McCain 56, Obama 41, Others 3
Wisconsin 10 – Obama 54, McCain 42, Others 4
Wyoming 3 – McCain 60, Obama 36, Others 4

National Popular Vote – Obama 49, McCain 48, Others 3

Total Electoral Votes – McCain 281, Obama 257, Others 0

Total States Won – McCain 28, Obama 22 + DC

End Result: John McCain becomes the 44th President, dozens of major US cities burn to the ground, both Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews commit suicide-by-cop.

Senate races: The Democrats pick up seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Alaska, North Carolina, and Colorado. The GOP picks up none. Net 6 seat gain for the Democrats. The Senate in 2009 is comprised of 55 Democrats, 2 "independents" who vote with the Democrats, and 43 Republicans.

House races: The Democrats pick up between 12 and 18 seats in the House of Representatives. Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker of the House. Small children who have an incapacitating fear of clowns must wait at least another two years before touring our nation's capital.

Please provide your own predictions and/or feedback in the comments section below!

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About RJ

  • Wow, RJ. Your results are remarkably similar to mine. And for the record, even though my article isn’t published yet, I did write it before yours made it into the BC queue.

    For those who aren’t aware, RJ did a remarkably accurate job with his past predictions. I wonder if the fact that we agree means that he’s lost it or that I’ve struck gold in my analysis of the flaws in the polling.


  • RJ –

    Wishing won’t make it so.

    But Republicans do have an ace in the hole…the Ace of Diebold. That’s the only way McCain will win…but that’s the way I think it will work out.

    BUT if you (and I) are wrong, stand by for a modest amount of…dare I call it gloating?…on the 5th.

    Hey – the Latinos (but NOT the Mexicans) have ‘Cinco de Mayo’ (only in America, not in Mexico).

    If Obama wins, maybe we’ll have, um,
    “mwezi wa kumi na moja Tano” – That’s Swahili for 5th of November! (I think)

  • Thanks for the quick publish, Dave. And I’m glad to hear that someone else is predicting something similar…

  • I think Glenn has shown us pretty clearly that the Demos have their excuses already lined up and ready to go, despite the fact that Diebold was cleared of every accusation in 2004 and has fixed their security vulnerabilities.

    Oh, RJ. I notice you didn’t break down the electoral votes by district in Maine and Nebraska. I think McCain will take upstate Maine – any thoughts?


  • Dave,

    It’s possible, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. And there’s always the possibility that Obama will take the Nebraska congressional district that includes Omaha, but I don’t believe that’s going to happen either.

    So I think McCain gets all of Nebraska’s EC votes, and Obama gets all of Maine’s EC votes. (That certainly simplifies things, too.)

  • bliffle

    Dave has simply rendered himself hysterically irrelevant with his latest contrivances.

    The reps have demonstrated willingness to cook the results, but IMO the Obama margin will be too large.

  • Franco


    Did you base this prediction on all the same factors you used in your 2004 prediction, or are there other factors you found necessary to employ this time?

  • Eric

    I think you’re right on. Except that I think the spread in FL and OH will be more than 1%. VA is the one that will be closest. Just curious, did you include any specific weighting based on the “PUMA factor”?

    Also, based on your predictions, I take it you’re also predicting a drawn-out contested fight in the courts too?

  • Franco,

    Not really, because there are different factors to take into account this time around. (This election has no incumbent, for example.)

    I didn’t have a specific formula, but here are some factors that I took into account:

    – Obama tends to under-perform on election day compared to his position in the polls (or at least that was the case in the primaries).

    – Undecideds are more likely to go to McCain (the “safe” choice) in the final days and hours, in my opinion.

    – Most of the public polls are probably over-sampling Democrats, which distorts the results somewhat. I believe the polling models are pretty much busted in this election year, for myriad reasons.

    – A small “Bradley Effect” may play a role in pushing some close states into the McCain column, particularly in states with more racially heterogeneous populations (like Virginia).

    – The Hispanic vote is going to win it for Obama in the states of Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

  • Steve-o

    Democrats/liberals are the funniest people on earth, and the slowest learners. If the Messiah wins, the disappointment after the honeymoon will be lovely to watch.
    I’m fine either way, I know better than to depend on government for anything. My goal is to adjust to any outcome and turn it to my advantage. If McCain wins, I’m starting a new business to add to my current two endeavors (They don’t take much time to run at this point).
    If Obama wins, I’m expanding my semi-retirement, going tax-free with my investments and enjoying life that way.
    It’s a win-win for me, even though an Obama victory will be a loss for the USA. I’ll be sorry to see that happen for all those still trying to make it in life, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. Adjust and move on.

  • zingzing

    wow! you’ve got mccain winning EVERY battleground state! imagine! the latest polls i see show obama ahead in (at the very least) four of those by at least 3% and another two that are tied. those are the most conservative numbers i could find. so mccain would have to perform pretty damn well nearly EVERYWHERE in order to win. it’s not that i don’t ever see that happening, it’s just that i wouldn’t bet money on it.

  • Cannonshop

    If “The Hill” had won the primary, and McCain won the GOP primary, I’d vote Hillary before I’d vote McCain (also, if she’d won, it’d probably be Giuliani or Powell as McCain’s Veep, not Palin.)

    It’s not that I like Hillary, but she’s practical pol enough that she probably wouldn’t push things that already failed once before.

    and she’s less of a Lib than McCain.

  • Interesting prediction, RJ. I disagree with it spectacularly.

    Barring the odd mini-surprise (a Ron Paul win in Montana, anyone?), 42 states have their communal minds already made up. That leaves eight battleground states that will decide this thing. The stark fact is that McCain has to win ALL OF THEM to clinch the presidency.

    Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana, despite polls which have looked good for Obama over the past few weeks, are probably going to stick with recent form and plump for McCain. I said earlier in the campaign that there was no way Obama was going to win Florida and I’ll stick my neck out and predict that that’s still the case. Virginia looks very good for Barack but I won’t be too gobsmacked if it flips at the last moment. Ohio really is anyone’s guess, again, at this point.

    But really, RJ, there is absolutely no way on this Earth that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. It’s a blue state. Even in ’04 when the Democrats fielded the Candidate from Hell, and it looked in the last set of polls as if Bush might just sneak it in PA, Kerry still won.

    I know you listed many factors that might help McCain do the seemingly impossible, but allow me just to share a cautionary tale based on one: the ‘safe choice’ effect.

    In the UK general election of 1992, Neil Kinnock’s Labour Party was poised to oust John Major’s Conservatives from power. The nation seemed to have wearied after thirteen years of Thatcherism, and virtually every opinion poll in the run-up to the election gave Labour a healthy lead.

    They lost.

    After the post-mortem, the pollsters came to the conclusion that the main reason they’d got it so horribly wrong was that ‘safe choice’ effect: enough people, in the privacy of the voting booth, had decided Labour was too great a risk and plumped for the devil they knew.

    Fast forward five years, and the Conservatives, trailing in the opinion polls once again, were counting on that same effect come election day. They campaigned vigorously on that theme: you can’t, they told the public, trust Labour.

    It was a landslide: the worst defeat the Conservatives had ever suffered in a general election.

    The electorate, having given the Tories another chance and perceiving that they hadn’t taken it, finally decided that they’d had enough after all.

    I see similarities between ’92 and Bush’s comeback win in ’04 (he was the safe choice). We’ll know (hopefully!) within 48 hours whether ’08 (McCain as the safe choice, but with the eight-years-of-Bush monkey on his shoulder) echoes the UK general election of ’97.

  • I have the Redskins covering.


  • So Matt, did the NFL deliberately schedule Steelers-Redskins for Monday night just to keep us all on tenterhooks that little bit longer…?

  • Yes, because not only do they predict the president almost every time, but McCain and Obama are going to be interviewed by journalistic shining beacon Chris Berman at halftime.

  • Jet

    Nebraska-McCain-3 Obama-2
    New Hampshire-Obama
    New Jersey-Obama
    New Mexico-McCain
    New York-Obama
    North Carolina-Obama
    North Dakota-McCain
    Rhode Island-Obama
    South Carolina-McCain
    South Dakota-McCain
    West Virginia-Obama


  • Interesting predictions, Jet. Thanks for posting.

    You might want to take a closer look at how Nebraska awards EC votes, though. Unless you think Obama will win two of the three congressional districts, but still lose to McCain statewide.

    Also, I think you’re dead wrong about WV. And I don’t see Iowa going for McCain. And I think if McCain wins VA, then he’s got NC in the bag.

  • Jet

    I screwed up labeling West Virginia and Iowa-They should go to McCain… sorry. However the EC totals are correct.

    I used a website where you can click the states to change their color to get the EC totals, but every 2-3 minutes the damned thing would reset so I had to type fast (not easy with a shattered right arm)

    As I said, the EC totals are right it’s the labeling that was done quickly and innacurately.


  • Jet

    Perhaps Doc can fix it for me?

  • Jet

    No, come to think of it I can see Iowa falling to McCain.

    Basically I gave the blue states that had early voting to Obama as I expect more working class and blacks to vote early. Here in Ohio the wait on early voting lines was up to 8 hours with an average of 5.

    I think the economy is the biggest factor in the rust belt and I expect it all to go to Obama, which is why I gave Indian to him.

    All reports from North Carolina say a massive movement toward Obama.

    There’s also the “godless” negative ads that may swing votes against the GOP

  • Dave –

    Diebold an ‘excuse’?

    REMEMBER all the PROVEN Republican efforts at voter suppression and election fraud in the other topic?

    And how, when ALL the Democratic fraud was added up, even without disputing ANY of it (I was able to dispute almost ALL of it), it amounted to less than ONE-HUNDREDTH the suppression and fraud the Republicans have been committing.

    NOT an excuse, Dave. A REASON.

  • Any chance of Obama getting WV disappeared over the weekend when his quotes to the SF Chronicle broke publicly. I’m pretty sure that coal miners will turn out en masse to make sure there’s still a coal mining industry in the future. There’s a fair chance it will cost Obama Ohio and Pennsylvania as well.

    But really, RJ, there is absolutely no way on this Earth that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. It’s a blue state. Even in ’04 when the Democrats fielded the Candidate from Hell, and it looked in the last set of polls as if Bush might just sneak it in PA, Kerry still won.

    As I said above, if they had time to do another poll it would show McCain gaining at least 5 points in Pennsylvania because of Obama’s SF Chron gaffes.

    But he doesn’t even have to win Pennsylvania. By my calculation he can win without Pennsylvania if he wins Ohio instead, as detailed in my election predictions.


  • Jet

    Somehow I don’t see him “running the table” with the toss up states…

  • Wow…predicting a win for McCain. Very ballsy RJ. I hope that you get this wrong of course. But I have to admit that some of the over-confidence out there among the Dems scares me a little. Guess we’ll both find out soon enough, huh?


  • Lou

    Has everyone gone crazy? Obama will not lower taxes on the middle class. The current tax rate of 35% is due to expire next year and he plans on letting this tax bill expire. This means that our taxes will adjust to a rate of 39.5% on our money – that’s 4.5% tax increase. All his talk about lowering our taxes is a smoke screen and the liberal media just won’t talk about it. He stands for bigger government which means more money from us. He will raise the capital gains tax which means less money for those of us who invested with the hope of some money to help subsidize our retirement. He has been a part of the most shady move to register as many voters as possible to get the most votes for himself – read the stories about ACORN. He attended a radical church for 20 years, where his children were baptized, has anyone researched what went on in this church? I did and it scares me to death.
    Most people I talk with just listen to whatever they hear without looking into both the liberal and conservative media. The internet and the majority of newspapers out there are liberal but if you look hard enough you can find the conservative media – like the New York Post. Try reading some of their editorials and you will see what I mean.
    What scares me even more about Obama is what this world will be like for my children. Terrorism is here to stay and for a man to claim he will negotiate with these people is crazy. They are not people of their words. Do we really need someone who will learn ON THE JOB when our security is at stake? My children’s grandparents and many grandparents that I know down in Florida need to give this some thought. I am not one for war, but if it protects my children and we can stop these terrorists from coming to our country and hurting our children this is more important than anything that has been discussed in the presidential race. I’m I crazy here?

  • Jet

    Lou, you realize that everyone that agrees with you read that so you didn’t change anyone’s mind. Those who don’t agree didn’t read past the first paragraph.

    …when will all of you learn?

  • Arch Conservative

    RJ I agree with your picks except for PA, NV and NH. I don’t see McCain winning PA but he may pull out NV, NH.

    Either way it’s going to be Jimmy Carter redux.

    Am I the only one that feels like going out and buying a gun upon hearing Keith Olbermann’s voice?

  • zingzing

    kill, archie, kill!

  • Lou

    Thanks Jet – I was venting in frustration.

  • Remember, if you kill yourself you only save one person from Keith Olberman’s voice.


  • The latest poll has McCain over Obama in Florida.

  • The most recent poll has McCain up 5 in Indiana.

  • Jet

    Why would someone in Poland be concernad about what happens in Florida?

  • Jet

    RJ, why do I get the feeling that I’m watching CNN and you’re watching Fox News?

  • Why do you think I’m in Poland, Jet?

    And I’m actually not watching TV. I’m reading polls.

  • Yeah, Jet… you definitely need to keep labeling your jokes.

  • Was that a Polish joke? I don’t get it.

  • Jet

    I never expected you to RJ… I never expected you to. …sigh

  • Care to explain, Jet? I’ll probably be up a while …

  • North Dakota close, but leaning McCain

    It’s actually pretty frightening that a solid-Red state like ND could even be close at this point.

  • Ohio tied, with the momentum in favor of McCain. But how many votes did ACORN manage to steal in the early voting?

  • Next you’re going to throw us a poll that says DC’s tightening…

  • Breaking: Obama wins 15 McCain 6–in some resort town: Dixville, Knox, somewhere on East coast. That is purely republican registered. They voted for Nixon over Kennedy 6-0. But JFK won. They picked a lot of winners, because most of the POTUS have been Republican.


  • Jet

    RJ, before you get too excited, you might want to look at this… Click Here.

  • M

    Considering I live in VA and know how VA works, I think it’s going to Obama this year.

    Northern Virginia “Fake Virginia” is blue, tried and true. More people LIVE in Fake Virginia.

    You also have to factor in the high black population in “Real Virginia” as well.

    And PA? Nah, PA is blue, and has been for YEARS. Ain’t gonna go to McCain.

  • No, DD, I’m trying to be realistic here. :-/

    The two main problems with my prediction are Virginia and Pennsylvania. I’m fairly confident about everything else; in fact, McCain may even be able to win in Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota, although I still believe it’s unlikely.

    Virginia is about 4 points in favor of Obama right now in the public polling, but it’s moving towards McCain. Now, Virginia is a Red state that hasn’t gone for a Dem in like 44 years. I understand that the demographics of the state have changed in recent years, but I still believe it’s gonna be damn close.

    Pennsylvania is still a long-shot. Current polling has Obama ahead by about 6 points. But with the recently-released audio about how Obama seeks to bankrupt the coal industry, and with Jack Murtha in trouble in his re-election race, and with the fact that Hillary whipped Obama here in the primary, and the fact that PA was ground zero for the whole “bitter clingers” controversy, I still believe McCain has a realistic shot of winning this one by the most narrow of margins.

    And, quite frankly, he needs to, if he wants to become the next President. Without PA, he’s most likely screwed.

  • HOLY SHIT! Obama only up by 3 in Minnesota???

    Up by 3 is down by 3 when they count the votes. Bad news for Al Frankenstein.


  • Jet

    If you run your cursor over the states you’ll get the latest poll results, and I consider CNN pretty reliable…

  • The two main problems with my prediction are Virginia and Pennsylvania. I’m fairly confident about everything else; in fact, McCain may even be able to win in Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota, although I still believe it’s unlikely.

    I think Nevada is a good bet for McCain. The others not so much.

    Virginia is about 4 points in favor of Obama right now in the public polling, but it’s moving towards McCain.

    4 points up for Obama is 2 points up for McCain when people get into the privacy of the voting booth, especially in Virginia.


  • Jet

    I understand in Kentucky and Alabama, McCain is in danger because some are writing in joe the plumber!

  • Not a problem. Most of those people can’t ready anyway and probably would have voted Obama by mistake.


  • 2% of Obama voters are supporting their candidate based on the premise that he’s qualified/experienced. 20% of McCain voters are supporting their candidate based on those reasons.


  • Jet

    By the same token only 21% strongly support McCain, while 63% strongly support Obama. Another aspect of that is a large majority are soft on McCain because they don’t want to see a President McCain in charge of nuclear arsenals and foreign policy.

  • Jet, your last begs the question of how many are voting AGAINST Obama rather than for McCain. My guess it’s a hell of a lot.


  • Jet

    Maybe in Texas Dave… Maybe in Texas

  • I’ve noticed that you like to repeat yourself, Jet, you like to repeat yourself …

  • Jet

    Some of what I say bears repeating…

    …I’m just not arogant about it


  • So, just in case Obama wins, I’m curious how easy it is to emigrate to the Czech Republic? Do I actually need to learn Czech, or can I just use hand signals and talk really loud?

  • Jet

    Oh you’ll just love it there, the pastries are to die for and the soccer players are really hot!

  • Jet, if you were any gayer, you’d be the Congressman from the 4th congressional district of Massachusetts.

  • Clavos


    Don’t know about the Czech Republic, but I’ve been selling boats in Croatia and Slovenia for a couple of years now, and have been over there a few times on business.

    The Dalmatian coast is gorgeous; Split, Croatia is a beautiful resort on the Adriatic Sea that holds its own with towns like St. Tropez and Monaco. Ljubljana, Slovenia, though inland, is on the Sava River. It’s the Slovenian capital and a very cosmopolitan, sophisticated city crawling with delicious young women.

  • zingzing

    rj, if you fuck with jet, i will have your babies and kill them. in a car. with your mother. but seriously, that joke, the one you made, it sucked. i hope you lose tomorrow. i pee pee on your… what do you value? well, i pee pee on that.

  • Jet

    You may not believe this, but I’m not really as swishy as you might think… I just like to have fun on occasion in the comments section.

  • Jet

    The nude beaches are great too… I’m told

  • Jet

    Surplus Russian nuclear subs Clavos?

  • zingzing

    election day. the day we all dream of. who will be the victor? your ignorant father or your drugged-up mother?

  • Arch Conservative

    “Breaking: Obama wins 15 McCain 6–in some resort town: Dixville, Knox, somewhere on East coast. That is purely republican registered. They voted for Nixon over Kennedy 6-0. But JFK won. They picked a lot of winners, because most of the POTUS have been Republican.”

    [Personal attack deleted by Comments Editor]

    The town is called Dixville Notch, not Dixville, Knox and it’s not “somewhere on the East coast, it’s in the northern part of my home state of New Hampshire. Also…it’s not a resort town. It’s a tiny little town in the middle of nowhere. Lastly, not everyone there is a registered Republican.

  • Arch Conservative

    your ignorant father or your drugged-up mother?

    those are just two examples of the average Obama voter zing…..

    you forgot

    the high on mushrooms self righteous college student who feels justified in lecturing you on how the world works because he took a poli sci class taught by some leftover flower child relic from the sixties who’s incapable of dealing with people his own age who don’t share his views so he’s hiding out on a college campus where he can spew his leftist propaganda to 18 year old kids that don’t know dick about how the world really works….

    I understand Obama has been touting this block of supporters..

  • Jet

    Soundl like someone needs arch supports?

  • RJ,

    Interesting read. The only problem I see with your set-up is that there are real battleground states. IMHO, any state that is within one percentage point or less for either major candidate should be a battleground state.

    Of course, then you wouldn’t have that counter-intuitive headline, would you? IMHO, you’r putting your balls on the table and there are so many people with hatchets around….

    But, like I said, interesting read, and interesting comments too.

    Jet, you’re several years too late for the used Russian sub market. The big fat drunk isn’t stumbling the Kremlin anymore. He’s dead. His replacement isn’t putting Russian subs on e-bay….

    If things go bad enough, though, you may be able to bid on used American subs.

  • bliffle

    Clavos says:

    “The Dalmatian coast is gorgeous; Split, Croatia is a beautiful resort on the Adriatic Sea that holds its own with towns like St. Tropez and Monaco. Ljubljana, Slovenia, though inland, is on the Sava River. It’s the Slovenian capital and a very cosmopolitan, sophisticated city crawling with delicious young women.”

    Indeed, it’s true!

    Almost irresistibly attractive. But as my friend A, who was born and raised in Split, says, it’s great until you need a doctor.

    But I bet that within a few years it will become the New Riviera.

  • I predict Obama winning 325 electoral votes.

  • Clavos, bliffle – Dubrovnik, a coastal city in Croatia, is for me one of the best places in the world.

  • zingzing

    now you guys are discussing where to go should the election not go your way? and you come up with croatia? interesting…

  • Years ago, a Minnesota governor, originally a dentist from Eveleth, near Duluth, went to Croatia after leaving office as MN governor. His name was Rudy Perpich. It was really funny seeing his name spelled as the Croatians do – Rudi Prpic. He was an advisor to the first Croatian dictator, Franjo Tudzman (sp? – it’s been a while).

    He was always a controversial fellow, both as governor, and for going to Croatia.

    It isn’t going to help you to run away from the States, no matter who wins or loses. The influence of the States is too extensive, both economically and culturally, to really escape. I wish I could escape it here. No way, and it sucks.

    It’s not that you guys are terrible – you folks are okay – but your culture is sick as all hell, and the idiots all over the world imitate the stupid things you all do….

    This is not said with contempt; it is said with sadness. I used to live amongst you guys once.

  • Not to worry, zingster. As assistant comments editor, I guarantee you that after the election is over and the pixel dust has settled, I’m still gonna be seeing the same old people still commenting from the same old IP addresses.

  • Jet

    Pixie dust?

  • For information on your voting status(i.e., registration, polling places etc.)

  • Cindy D


    If you make more than 250k you deserve an increase to 39.5%

    By “our” taxes you exclude every single one of us who is posting here.

    Shouldn’t you be posting on the Montblanc Mystery Pen site?

    In fact you can see your Obama vs McCain tax cut here.

  • Cindy D

    RE #56


    Here are the words of a conservative about what he learned while campaigning for Obama.

    My wife made me canvass for Obama; here’s what I learned.: This election is not about major policies. It’s about hope.

  • Jet

    No new taxes!?

    Who is going to pay for the hospitals
    Who is going to pay for the bridges
    Who is going to pay for the road repairs
    Who is going to pay for the new schools?
    Who will pay for new police officers?
    Who will pay for new firemen
    Who is going to pay teacher salaries?
    Who will pay for new police cars and firetrucks?



    … your kids will, that’s who.

    The GOP will put it on our national credit card, let someone else pay for it into the future when we’re gone!….. plus interest

  • Clavos


    Dubrovnik is, as you say, also a beautiful little city, with centuries of history – Hadrian is buried near there.

    Other lovely Croatian cities include Hvar and Korcula. I love all the islands lying close offshore of the Dalmatian coast.

    I’m acquiring a lot of clients in the former Yugoslav republics, so I’m getting lots of opportunity to see the whole area, which my clients are justifiably proud of showing off.

  • Leigh Boca

    Wow! I am happy to hear and see that mcCain is winning, and that your predictions are accurate. That reassures me for the upcoming events tonight. This year i have heard and figured that there is a lot of voting fraud. With all the new voters that have popped out of no where, you would think the predictions and results would be obvious, but again…Thank you RJ for reassuring me in the stability of our nation!

  • Vermont has gone for Obama.

    Kentucky has gone for McCain.

    No surprises yet.

    Also, Mitch Daniels (R) has won re-election as Indiana’s Governor.

    (Source: Fox News)

  • Mark Warner (D) has won election to the Senate in Virginia, as predicted.

    (Source: Fox News)

  • Lindsey Graham (R) has won re-election to the Senate from South Carolina.

  • Jet

    CNN has called Virginia for Obama

  • Jet

    Leigh, the new voter that “popped” out of nowhere are all people who were discouraged or unable to vote in the past.

    With more and more states allowing early voting, that has not changed.

    It’s funny that the losing side always screams VOTER FRAUD!!

  • McCain wins WV!

  • Jet

    Why the exclamation point for WV?

  • Jet #91 – Not on their website they didn’t.

  • Jet

    That’s because I’m watching the broadcast, not the website

  • Jet

    Early results have Obama ahead of McCain in N. Carolina

    Cnn has also just announced that Obama has an 8 point lead in Florida

  • Jet

    So far…
    FLA Obama 55-45
    N Carolina Obama 50.49
    Indiana McCain 51-49

    Early from CNN

  • Jet

    RJ, I apologize for posting without asking first on YOUR article. say the world and I’ll stop…

  • South Carolina goes to McCain.

  • Huh? No, of course you’re welcome to post here, Jet. I just don’t understand why CNN would call Virginia for Obama, but then not put that information on their website.

  • Jet

    I think they just backed off of that early prediction


    Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois, Connecticut, Maine, NJ, and Delaware (and DC, of course) for Obama.

    Oklahoma for McCain.

  • Susan Collins (R) wins re-election to the Senate from Maine.

    Jim Inhofe (R) wins re-election to the Senate from Oklahoma.

  • McCain wins Tennessee.

  • troll

    msnbc – yakking away about Pennsylvania and how McC’s strategy has crashed

  • Mitch McConnell (R) holds his Senate seat in KY!

  • Breaking: Obama 77/McCain 34

    Hey folks it’s OVER…CHANGE IS COMING…IT’S here.

    My sister and daughter have tickets to the Grant Park lakeside rally tonight. He just won North Carolina! There has been an African American tsunami of voters there.

    I am off to write an article and read my interview with McWhorter. Thanks


  • Jet


    Florida advantage Obama 56-43 Ahead by 517,000

    Virginia Mc Cain 5643 vote advantage

    N Carolina Obama !!! 56,000 %62-38

  • Kay Hagan (D) beats Elizabeth Dole (R) in NC!

  • Obama just won New Hampshire!

  • CallmeMaddy

    I love your prediction. Don’t think McCain will win, but I hope so.

  • Jet

    Latest CNN

    Ohio Obama 68-32Percent
    WVA Obama 56-43
    Georgia McCain 63-36
    New Hampshire 57-40

  • Jet

    You might want to revise your little map there RJ

  • Jet

    Anyone who has followed elections is aware that the candidates already know who won the election this morning from predictions.

    McCain has a hotel
    Obama has a huge park in Chicago

  • Jet

    FLA Obama 53-42
    N. Carolina Obama 58-41
    Indiana McCain 51-48
    Virginia McCain 56-43

  • Shaheen (D) beats Sununu (R) in the NH Senate race.

  • I haven’t gotten a single state wrong yet, Jet.

  • Okay, never mind:

    Obama wins PA

  • McCain wins Arkansas.

  • Jet

    New Hampshire has been called for Obama-CNN

  • troll

    when are those live bloggers going to start discussing the election – ?

  • Jet

    NC Hagen is beating the hell out of Liz Dole

  • Lamar Alexander (R) wins re-election to the Senate from TN.

  • McCain wins Georgia.

  • Jet

    CNN has called PA for Obama
    Cnn has called New Hampshire for Obama

    so far
    FLA Obama 85-48 up 178,000
    NC Obama 56-44 up 167,000

  • Saxby Chambliss (R) retains his Senate seat in GA.

  • Jet

    CNN electoral map Obama 102, McCain 34

  • Tom Feeney (R) lost his House seat in FL.

    Vern Buchanan (R) retains his House seat in FL.

    (Observation: I think Brit Hume is losing his marbles…I honestly believe he’s getting a little bit senile…)

  • Jet

    The panel has now said there’s no clear way for McCain to win.

  • Jet

    Kay Hagan has beaten Elizabeth Dole

  • Jet

    Obama ahead in popular vote, but Alabama is going to McCain… no surprise

  • Jet

    To Rhode Island, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York

    To McCain Wyoming, N. D.

    It’s been hinted that McCain may lose Arizona!!!!

  • Obama wins Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, NY, and RI.

    McCain wins WY, Kansas, and North Dakota.

  • Jet

    If Ohio or Florida are called for Obama, it’s over

  • I’m calling it a night. It’s early Wednesday morining here and I have to catch a bus into J-lem in not too long.

    Looks like the a-hole (or isa is t o-hole?) will win. Surprises may yet come out of left field.

  • Jet

    Obama is close to winning both Ohio and Florida

  • Jet

    You know…… I almost feel sorry for Rush Limbaugh………. almost

  • McCain’s only hope is to win VA, NC, IN, FL, and OH, and then pick off CO and NV. He can’t lose any of them.

    Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? Not so much.

  • Jet

    RJ are you… no… oh that right, I forgot you’re watching Fox News…. that explains it.

  • Why, Jet? Rush pretty much hates McCain.

    You wanna feel bad for someone? How about Bill Kristol. He liked McCain in the primaries and he wanted Palin on the ticket. Oops!

    The neo-cons are toast.

  • McCain just lost Ohio. This thing is now officially over. Barack Hussein Obama shall become the 44th President of the United States in January of 2009. God help us all.

  • Jet

    Sorry, I was more speaking of the Democrats on the verge of getting a 60 lead in the Senate

  • I’m not sure why you’re in a taunting mood, Jet. Oh, wait, you’re an obnoxious lefty…that explains it.

  • Jet

    And proud of it

  • The Dems won’t get to 60, but probably 58.

  • Jet

    CNN… Obama 174… McCain 69. CNN says to wait for a major prediction…

  • Roger Wicker (R) retains his Senate seat in Mississippi…

  • Zedd

    RJ honey, your obnoxious too. Jet is relentless, you are tragic and obnoxious. I’m convinced though that when you get some years under your belt, you’ll sober up. I think its good that a person your age is so engaged. I can’t be too annoyed by you because I remember the embarrassing things that I said in my youth. I still get flushed. You are an impassioned person. That is good. What will come next is that you will slow down and look for substance. You will actually learn how to recognize substance as opposed to a good come back. You’ll be aayite! Keep pushing.

  • Well, never mind … the Mississippi Senate race I mentioned in #148 is now too close to call …

  • You’re condescending and a poor speller, Zedd.

  • Keller (R) narrowly loses his House seat in FL.

    Rooney (R) knocks off embattled House incumbent Mahoney (D) in FL.

  • Jet

    I was going to report more but I didn’t want to gloat

  • Oh, wait, you’re an obnoxious lefty…that explains it

    rj, you called a woman a cunt in the bc commentary, resulting in a temporary ‘vacation’.

    you have no business flinging the obnoxious label around. you lost that right years ago.

  • Jet

    I consider it very telling that for a while the McCain HQ had shut off the election results and were listening to Hank Williams II singing about being born to boogie??????

  • Zedd

    Not poor, horrendous!

    But so brilliant! I know, it baffles the mind. Freak of nature….

    Relax kid. Older people have a right to be condescending. We know more. It happens with us not trying too hard. Live long enough and you get to know stuff. We’ve been there where you are right now. You’ll remember these days and cringe then laugh. Just calm down and listen a lot to everyone. Don’t be a band-wagoner. Laugh a lot and grow, grow, grow. It’s just a ride, but is your ride. Relax and enjoy son!

  • Jet

    Zedd You sound bitter. You need to put your sentences in a better structure because I was a little hazy as to whom you were insulting.

    Most of you considered me an idiot when I predicted $4 gallon of gas two years ago

    You said I was a fool when I predicted Obama would win, and by a big margin.

  • Chris Shays (R) loses his House seat in CT. (Good.)

  • Jack Murtha (POS) (D) just declared victory in his race for re-election to the House from Pennsylvania, despite the fact that his opponent has not conceded, and the media has not yet called the race one way or the other.

    You can tell from his little press conference that the guy is clearly unhinged.

  • Yes, I did Mark, and it was an accurate characterization. You may recall that she was later permanently banned from this website after threatening to release unflattering private, personal information about the site owner.

    You’ve a good memory, though; that was like five years ago. Good to see I’ve made such an impression on you! 😉

  • Sure you want to gloat, Jet. Don’t play coy. That’s your purpose here this evening. 😉

  • Jet

    Believe it or not, I just wanted to make a contribution … no other reason… I’m a little disappointed you’d think there was something else.

  • I’m not sure which is worse: A clueless empty suit becoming the Commander-In-Chief during a time of war, or being condescended to by a semi-literate, elderly Mugabe supporter.

  • Jet

    Maybe we should take all that money to build a wall on the Mexican border and put it around alaska so we won’t have to deal with SaraBaracuda.

  • …after threatening to release unflattering private, personal information about the site owner.

    yep, and i think i remember eo’s exact response before she went up in smoke “…and you’re gone.”

    still, it’s no excuse.

    and yeah, i do remember stuff. it’s my writer’s memory. also, a sort of plague.

  • Jet

    Now RJ don’t be bitter about Bush and Chenney

  • Jet

    Did Clavos sell you a boat to sell to Europe yet?

  • Clavos

    Don’t feel sorry for Rush, Jet. This election just ensured he’s got four more solid years to rage and rave.

    Seriously, he’s probably celebrating (privately) tonight–tomorrow, he goes to his employers and demands a doubling of his contract.

    And, he’ll get it.

  • Jet

    “This election just ensured he’s got four more solid years to rage and rave.” Come to think of it so do you!

  • Zedd


    We AGREE!!!!!! Big day for you.

  • Jet

    Looks like Obama won’t need Florida, doesn’t it?

  • Jet

    Big day for him?

    How arogant do you have to be?

  • Jet

    CNN just gave Obama Virginia… again

  • Jet

    CNN has just called Obama the President elect…

  • cnn just projected obama.

  • Franco

    Jet, please allow me to be one of the first to congratulate you for your candidates victory. I mean it, and I hope it is good for all of us.

    Nancy Pelois and Harry Reid still scare the shit out of me, but here we go………

  • Jet

    All that’s left to do is for Bush to use his wartime presidential powers to void the election!

  • STM

    PRESIDENT-ELECT OBAMA, according to my television.

    All over red-rover.

    Arch, going out to celebrate mate??

  • Jet

    Franco, the only thing to fear is fear itself

  • Jet

    Obama will be sworn in on the 100th anniversary of the NAACP

  • Jet

    You know I’ve taken a lot of shit from you guys, and now that I’ve been proven right, LET’S HAVE SOME PEACE AROUND HERE!

    You expected a childish rant?
    sorry, I’m more grown up than that.

  • Jet

    It is truly sad that his grandmother died one day shy of being able to witness this, truly sad

  • Jet

    Quote-“Let my name stand among those who are willing to bear ridicule and reproach for the truth’s sake, and so earn some right to rejoice when the victory is won.”

    Louisa May Alcott

  • If Obama signs the “Fairness Doctrine” into law, I’m “going rogue.”

  • Clavos

    Pelosi’s going to push it.

  • Jet

    Always true to form; aren’t you Clavos?

  • Franco

    Did you hear McCain’s concession speech. One of the greatest of all time. Very very moving in it’s support for Obama and all of us. Quite something.

  • Jet

    This was no squeak by election, Obama earned more than double McCain’s electoral votes.

  • Well, McCain at least won his home state. Al Gore couldn’t say that …

    Obama narrowly won Florida, which sucks because I live here.

    Obama also won a pretty close race in VA.

    Indiana still undecided…

    Missouri still undecided…

    North Carolina still undecided, but looking good for Obama…

    Not quite a landslide, but a solid victory.

    (My definition of a landslide is 1984 or 1972. My definition of a near-landslide is 1988 or 1980. My definition of a solid win is 1992 or 1996, but both those races were complicated by Perot.)

  • The homosexual marriage ban PASSED in Florida, with approximately 62% of the vote! (It will be rather difficult now for the Florida Supreme Court to follow the California and Massachusetts supreme courts in magically finding a “right” to homosexual marriages in the state constitution, now that the state constitution expressly prohibits it…)

    The homosexual marriage ban is ahead in California as well, but it’s too close and too early…

  • Oh, darn: Murtha did win re-election… :-/

    Bill Posey (R) won the open House seat in Florida’s 15th congressional district.

  • STM

    Hey Doc, mate, do you want the brick gift-wrapped, and where do I send the bloody thing??

  • Clavos

    Always true to form; aren’t you Clavos?

    If by that you mean that I stand by my principles, yes Jet, you;re right, I am.

    I cannot abide the likes and aims of people like Pelosi, who, incidentally, does want to re-establish the falsely named “Fairness ” Doctrine.

  • Clavos

    Franco #191:

    It was written for him by speech writers.

  • Franco

    RJ, I too was hoping your predictions would all come through. But I enjoyed it, good work, I was actually getting faster updates from all of your postings they I was from CNN.

  • Jet

    199-200 If Obama fails Clavos, it’ll be because of bitter sore losers like you blocking him every step of the way

  • Jet

    338 (so far) to 135 IS a damned good and solid victory-and you know it. Bush never had one like it.

  • Franco

    #200 — Clavos

    They were good speach writers then, and he delivered it as good or better then it was written.

    Now I got to ask you about the Dalmatian coast. Could a guy make a living their working on sail boats and selling them?

  • Jet

    Thanks for putting up with me tonight RJ. I guess tomorrow we go back to the way we were before, so I’ll have to rest up for it.

    good night

  • Clavos

    I said nothing about Obama, Jet. I disliked Pelosi long before Obama was even a candidate. Obama’s election doesn’t change that for me. I didn’t vote for him, but I’m not bitter he won. Who sleeps in the White House is of intellectual interest to me, but really doesn’t immediately affect my personal life nearly as much as the Mayor of Miami-Dade county does.

    As for Obama, I will not oppose him until he does (or proposes) something with which I disagree. Until then, I’m just going to watch, not oppose.

    Pelosi’s another matter.

  • Coleman barely leading Franken in a tight Senate race …

  • Thanks Franco. I only hope Franken loses in Minnesota, and then I can go to bed not completely disheartened…

  • “If Obama fails Clavos, it’ll be because of bitter sore losers like you blocking him every step of the way”

    Yes, because The One could never possibly fail on his own…

    It’s nice to see you’ve already got a built-in excuse for failure though!

  • Good night, Jet. You were marginally less of a gloat than I expected.

  • Or is that “gloater?” I suppose “gloat” is a verb, and “gloater” is a noun.

    Whatever. It’s late. :-/

  • #190

    Likely Mark won’t care about this opinion either, but it’s your time, so waste it how you see fit.

  • Okay, Wicker (R) did hold his Senate seat in MS.

    Landrieu (D) appears to have narrowly held her Senate seat in Louisiana.

    It’s too close to call in the Oregon Senate race …

  • Franco

    #209 — RJ Elliott

    It’s nice to see you’ve already got a built-in excuse for failure though!

    I know, whats that shit all about. Ya, that’ll work Jet, because if you and your ilk had not stood in Bush’s way.

  • Yaknow, if Obama isn’t just blowing smoke about this whole bi-partisan thing, and if he is willing to tell Pelosi and Reid to shove it from time to time, he could actually be a decent President. I can never forgive him for the kind of characters he has willingly associated himself so closely with in the past, but if he truly does make a “clean break” with the anti-American left, then I’ll be willing to give him a chance.

    But I draw the line in a few areas. The “Fairness Doctrine” is one of them. Gun rights is another.

    Raise the capital gains tax if you must, Obama. Throw around some more money in foreign aid if it makes you feel better. But don’t mess with the 1st Amendment, or the 2nd.

  • I’m trying to find the national popular vote totals for all candidates. I’m curious as to how well Nader, Baldwin, and Barr did. Any suggested links?

  • Exit poll results:

    Blacks voted 95% for Obama, 4% for McCain, and 1% for other…

  • Karl Rove does not look like a particularly happy camper this evening …

  • zingzing

    oh dear, republicans lost. lalalalllallllllalllalalalllllalalalalaallalla demo

  • zingzing

    how did freedom of marriage do? i hope all you bigots lost. go states! wherever you are. seriously, you bigots need to fuck off.

  • zingzing

    for today, it’s not your world anymore.

  • zingzing
  • pleasexcusethisinterrutpion

    Again your two horrible calls were PA and VA.. everything else was reasonable. PA and VA were absolutely horrible calls. McCain had no chance in either of them. None whatsoever. I mean the McCain campaign has been acting like it knows it’s going to lose for days. This was entirely wishful thinking on your part. Learn from it.

    The only surprise for me tonight was Indiana going Obama, and Stevens holding his seat in AK. Everything else was expected, although I wasn’t positive in OH and FL. Also it will be a surprise for me if Merckley (D) loses in OR which it looks like he might.

  • pleasexcusethisinterrutpion

    Oh and also Franken (D) – MN. I was surprised Franken won. Oh wait you all didn’t know that. Yes Franken has won MN. If you don’t believe me, wait till tomorrow, you will see. I called Indian for Obama an hour after the polls closed there. The networks still haven’t called it but I, in my infinite wisdom, am 100% positive of an Obama win there.

  • RJ, I’m looking at your numbers and laughing. Man, you missed big time!

  • Jwaldo


  • The “bigots” won, zz, in both Florida and California. 😉

  • “Again your two horrible calls were PA and VA.”

    No, my one horrible call was PA (which I acknowledged). VA was reasonable, and it was relatively close.

    “This was entirely wishful thinking on your part.”

    Well, yeah. I outlined a realistic best-case scenario for McCain. The only problem was PA. I had to kinda suspend my disbelief on that one…

  • The data I’m looking at has Franken down about 600 votes with like 99.9% of precincts reporting.

    I seriously hope that clown goes down.

  • #219 & #220:

    Stay classy, libs.

  • PETI, RJ,

    Go here for a bit more on the Minnesota Senate race.

    I have my own opinions on Senator Coleman based on far better experience than either of you can muster. Coleman grew up in Brooklyn about a mile from where I did, and as mayor of St. Paul, did everything he could to gut organizations that helped poor people pull themselves up by the bootstraps and get off such dependency producing programs like welfare.

    In short, Coleman was a shmuck who helped rich people and tried to screw over those who werent’t rich or in his little club.

    Now, is Franken any better? This, I cannot tell you. He made a career for himself outside of Minnesota for many years. All of a sudden, feeling ambitious, he packed his suitcase and headed home to grab up a high office. I do not know his politics, and more important, as of yet, I do not trust his politics. But, if he is elected, I might be able to get a line to the guy.

    After all, I was a DFL activist and have a few teds to call in on that front.

  • md

    “Yes, I did Mark, and it was an accurate characterization. You may recall that she was later permanently banned from this website after threatening to release unflattering private, personal information about the site owner.

    You’ve a good memory, though; that was like five years ago.”

    [personal attack deleted] The truth is [personal attack deleted], I NEVER said anything about releasing any information regarding EO; simply what “a check of the records” would determine.

    And I notice your writing is still atrocious.

    Oh, and RJ … “Yes We Can!!”