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RJ’s ’11 NFL Season Picks: Week Six

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I went 8-5 last week straight-up, and 8-5 against the spread as well. For the season, that puts me at 52-25 straight-up, and 43-31-3 against the spread. For a comparison, check out the “experts” over at ESPN.

Here are my picks for the NFL’s Week Six:

Sunday, October 16

San Francisco 4-1 at Detroit 5-0 1:00 PM [Line: Lions by 4.5]

The 49ers have allowed the second fewest points in the NFC. The unbeaten Lions have the best point differential in the NFL. (No one would have predicted that these teams would be a combined 9-1 heading into this match-up.)

-RJ’s Pick: Lions by 8

St. Louis 0-4 at Green Bay 5-0 1:00 PM [Line: Packers by 15]

The winless Rams have scored the fewest points in the NFL. The undefeated Packers have scored the most points in the NFL. (Can you say “mismatch?”)

-RJ’s Pick: Packers by 34

Carolina 1-4 at Atlanta 2-3 1:00 PM [Line: Falcons by 4]

Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Falcons rookie WR Julio Jones is on pace for a 1,000 yard season, but has yet to grab a TD reception. (Carolina keeps games close.)

-RJ’s Pick: Falcons by 1

Indianapolis 0-5 at Cincinnati 3-2 1:00 PM [Line: Bengals by 7]

The winless Colts will be playing this week without RB Joseph Addai, who has a strained hamstring. Bengals WR A.J. Green has 402 receiving yards and three touchdowns through five games. (I wonder what Carson Palmer is thinking about Cinci’s 3-2 start?)

-RJ’s Pick: Bengals by 11

Buffalo 4-1 at New York Giants 3-2 1:00 PM [Line: Giants by 3.5]

The Bills are averaging 5.0 yards per rushing attempt this season. Giants QB Eli Manning has a 102.3 passer rating. (This should be a high-scoring game.)

-RJ’s Pick: Giants by 7

Jacksonville 1-4 at Pittsburgh 3-2 1:00 PM [Line: Steelers by 13]

The Jaguars have scored the fewest points in the AFC. Steelers WR Mike Wallace is averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game. (Definite blowout, possible shutout.)

-RJ’s Pick: Steelers by 21

Philadelphia 1-4 at Washington 3-1 1:00 PM [Line: Eagles by 1]

The Eagles have lost four straight. The Redskins have allowed the fewest points in the NFC. (Philly is favored again? When will people figure out that the “Dream Team” has narcolepsy?)

-RJ’s Pick: Redskins by 4

Houston 3-2 at Baltimore 3-1 4:05 PM [Line: Ravens by 7]

The Texans lost to the Raiders at home last week, 25-20. The Ravens have allowed the fewest points in the league. (Suddenly the AFC South looks pretty weak. Will the eventual division winner be a 9-7 team?)

-RJ’s Pick: Ravens by 12

Cleveland 2-2 at Oakland 3-2 4:05 PM [Line: Raiders by 7]

The Browns are the only team in the AFC North without a winning record. The Raiders have scored the third most points in the AFC. (Al Davis, RIP.)

-RJ’s Pick: Raiders by 13

Dallas 2-2 at New England 4-1 4:15 PM {Line: Patriots by 7]

The Cowboys have the third ranked passing offense in the NFL. The Patriots have the best total offense in the NFL in terms of yards per game. (Wes Welker has 740 receiving yards and five touchdowns already.)

-RJ’s Pick: Patriots by 15

New Orleans 4-1 at Tampa Bay 3-2 4:15 PM [Line: Saints by 4]

Saints RB Darren Sproles is averaging 7.1 yards per rushing attempt and has 264 receiving yards. The Buccaneers are ranked 28th in the league in points scored per game. (New Orleans is looking to take early control of the NFC South with a win.)

-RJ’s Pick: Saints by 10

Minnesota 1-4 at Chicago 2-3 8:20 PM [Bears by 3]

The Vikings finally got a win last week, beating the Cardinals 34-10. The Bears have allowed 18 sacks this season, third most in the league. (This is just the battle for third place in the NFC North.)

-RJ’s Pick: Vikings by 2

Monday, October 17

Miami 0-4 at New York Jets 2-3 8:30 PM [Line: Jet by 7.5]

The winless Dolphins have scored just 69 points this season, second fewest in the AFC. The Jets have dropped three straight. (How much longer will Tony Sparano have a job?)

-RJ’s Pick: Jets by 3

[Bye Week: Denver, Tennessee, Kansas City, Arizona, San Diego, Seattle]

If you’re interested, you can check out the full list of Danny Sheridan’s Odds and ESPN’s NFL “Expert” Picks.

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About RJ

  • RJ

    Final Scores:

    SF 25, Lions 19 – RJ 0-1 [0-1 ATS]

    Packers 24, Rams 3 – RJ 1-1 [1-1 ATS]

    Atlanta 31, Carolina 17 – RJ 2-1 [1-2 ATS]

    Bengals 27, Colts 17 – RJ 3-1 [2-2 ATS]

    Giants 27, Bills 24 – RJ 4-1 [2-3 ATS]

    Steelers 17, Jacksonville 13 – RJ 5-1 [2-4 ATS]

  • RJ

    Final Scores:

    Eagles 20, Redskins 13 – RJ 5-2 [2-5 ATS]

    Ravens 29, Houston 14 – RJ 6-2 [3-5 ATS]

    Oakland 24, Browns 17 – RJ 7-2 [3-5-1 ATS]

    NE 20, Cowboys 16 – RJ 8-2 [3-6-1 ATS]

  • RJ

    Final Score:

    TB 26, NO 20 – RJ 8-3 [3-7-1 ATS]

  • RJ

    Final Score:

    Bears 39, Vikings 10 – RJ 8-4 [3-8-1 ATS]

  • RJ

    Final Score:

    Jets 24, Miami 6 – RJ 9-4 [3-9-1 ATS]

  • RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” in Week Six:

    Allen
    9-4
    Golic
    11-2
    Hoge
    8-5
    Jaworski
    10-2
    Mortensen
    8-5
    Schefter
    10-3
    Schlereth
    9-4
    Wickersham
    11-2
    Accuscore
    10-3
    Pick ‘em
    9-4

  • RJ

    ESPN’s NFL “experts” through six weeks:

    Allen
    59-31
    Golic
    66-24
    Hoge
    64-26
    Jaworski
    61-23
    Mortensen
    54-36
    Schefter
    61-29
    Schlereth
    63-27
    Wickersham
    62-28
    Accuscore
    64-26
    Pick ‘em
    64-26

  • RJ

    RJ through six weeks:

    61-29 straight-up

    46-40-4 against the spread