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Recent Gallup Poll Bad News For Kerry, Clinton

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Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., would do better than Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., against potential 2008 Republican presidential rivals John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani — but would still lose, a Gallup Poll showed Wednesday.

Both McCain, a senator from Arizona who challenged then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush for the Republican nomination in 2000, and Giuliani, mayor of New York City during the Sept. 11 attacks, would beat Clinton in the trial matchup 50 percent to 45 percent, the poll showed.

Either of the two Republicans would beat Kerry 54 percent to 41 percent. In the presidential election on Nov. 2, Bush beat Kerry 51 percent to 48 percent.

[…]

The Gallup Poll showed both McCain and Giuliani enjoying strong appeal among the independent swing voters who often decide the outcome of the nation’s presidential elections.

McCain and Giuliani each drew support from at least 50 percent of the independent voters surveyed by Gallup, while Clinton attracted no more than 41 percent, and Kerry got no more than 38 percent.

McCain and Giuliani also did a better job stealing Democratic support from Clinton and Kerry than the Democrats did luring Republican support from the two Republicans.

Great news for the GOP, right? Well, not really…

First of all, it’s far too early for this poll to have much real meaning.

Second, neither Rudy nor McCain are likely to win the GOP nomination. They both have a chance, of course. But they are probably too moderate (especially Rudy) to win many Republican primaries.

It would be interesting to see how Frist or Owens match up against Hillary or Kerry, because they are more likely to win the GOP nomination (being more conservative) than McCain or Rudy.

I suspect Frist would get beaten by Hillary, and it would be close with Kerry. And Owens is likely still too unknown to most voters for his national polling numbers to be of much utility.

Still. This is an early indication that the GOP has a decent shot at retaining the White House after Bush’s second term is up.

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About RJ

  • billy

    fair analysis, pro choice mcain and pro gay marriage guiliani have little chance to escape the gop primary.

    kerry has 0 chance of getting another shot, and hillary, maybe but not likely.

    mcain overall would probably win no matter who he faces, but it wont be him.

  • http://www.livejournal.com/users/djradiohead DJRadiohead

    It has been a major political miracle to watch a senator with a 90% conservative voting record turned into a liberal/moderate.

    I think John McCain has a better than average shot if he wants it. I could be wrong. It has happened. Just a hunch.

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    McCain is “pro-choice”? Since when?

    I know Rudy is “pro-choice” and supports gay marriages, but I’m pretty sure McCain has a sort of conservative view on both…

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    That being said, I do believe McCain would beat ANY Democrat in the general election, assuming he gets the nomination. Most of my Real-World friends are Democrats, and they all seem to like him.

  • sydney

    I’m always curious what makes Guiliani a REpublican? What are his politics? Everytime I see him talk he strikes me as left of center.

    Anyone want to enlighten me as to how rudy identifies himself as a repub?

  • http://counter-point.blogspot.com Scott

    I think McCain could win against almost any challenger in ’08. Not so sure about Rudy.

    The trick for McCain is making it through the primaries. Big wins in 2000 but no cigar. We’ll see what happens in ’08.

  • http://westernlibertarian.org Larry

    “Moderate” is the code word liberals use to describe Republicans who are to the left of THEM. They use it to try to hide the truth from Republicans, who really aren’t fooled.

    McCain was instrumental in destroying political speech in this country by any group that didn’t own their own printing press or broadcasting tower; and thereby giving incumbents an almost insuperable edge over challengers. After the recent recall movement (terminated by 9/11) he probably figured out that it was the only way he was going to hold his own office.

    A McCain OR Guiliani win would be a “Republican victory” only in the same sense that Saddam Hussein was “democratically elected.” In today’s America, not only does Macy’s tell Gilbel’s, but Macy’s IS Gimbel’s. :-(

  • http://www.maskedmoviesnobs.com El Bicho

    Not a whole lot of detail in those numbers, is there? After all it’s not just who gets the most votes, but where they get their votes. The poll seems meaningless without more information about where the 922 respondents come from, nor does it seem like a large enough sample.

  • http://www.elitistpig.com Dave Nalle

    >>A McCain OR Guiliani win would be a “Republican victory” only in the same sense that Saddam Hussein was “democratically elected.” <<

    It would be a victory for the old GOP, the real GOP, the party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower and Goldwater. If reasserting the Republican tradition of moderation and better, smaller government with respect for civil liberties and individual freedom alienates the extreme right, then maybe they can go off and found their own party and leave the GOP alone.

    That’s really my big hope, that McCain will get the nomination and the christofascists will leave the party in protest.

    Dave