Candidate Lamont had his day in the sun. Now it's Senator Lieberman's turn. And Lieberman will win.
Democrats are starting to pressure Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) to step back. It has been reported that Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), is calling on Lieberman to give up his bid for re-election as an independent as a matter of party loyalty.…
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26 - gonzo marx
excellent point, Clavos...
what some folks, especially partisans, just don't get about Independants is just that
they're independant...and very rarely vote as anty kind of block for or against specific candidates
instead they tend to vote about Issues
in this case, i find it a bit amusing as well as wishful partisan thinking, that on this thread, 2 GOP types think that the Indpendants will vote according to GOP wishes...
especially considering that the data woudl indicate that to Independants, Iraq IS one of the biggest Issues, and that the "mood" of said people is to toss out incumbents in order to "change the course"
so...speculation is Fun and all, but truly worthless until November
oh yes, and according to yesterday's polling data Lamont is still 5-7 ponts ahead of Lieberman in the general election for Connecticutt
so, we will see how it plays out in a few months
Excelsior?
27 - Matthew T. Sussman
This one says the Jew is up by 9
28 - gonzo marx
thanks Suss...
always looking to update the info..
hurm..looks like around 1300 people polled, and a margin of 3%
indicative, but not conclusive at this time...but definately more data to add to the pile
however, using the same Quinnipiac poll, one can see the trend of Lamont going from 27% in June to the 38% they show him at now
we will see how it all turns out, interesting that the GOPhas tossed their candidate aside and are getting behidn Lieberman, fascinating display of cynical politics in action... but that IS the system at this time
may the best Candidate get the Seat
Excelsior?
29 - Samuel Mercado
I think that Senator Lieberman has lost his loyalty for the Democrats if he runs as independent the only thing is going to happen is he will steal votes for his former pary and make the Republican to win, may be his is not smart enougth to see that.
30 - David Flanagan
Well, one of the central quotes in my article does show that money is already coming in steadily for Leiberman. You have to remember, Leiberman was a tireless supporter of his fellow Democrats and his party. He travelled to numerous state and national party functions to raise funds for fellow Dems and the DNC, and that loyalty will be remembered.
In regards to those Republicans who are willing to support and vote for Leiberman, it surprises me that you expect Republicans to vote blindly along party lines. Yes, there are those who only vote that way, but Republicans in general like to vote for the best candidate, and there are few better candidates anywhere in this country than Leiberman. I've voted for Democrats quite a few times when I agreed with them on the issues. The goal is to get the best people into office.
As for the independents in Connecticut, their vote tends to be a bit more fluid, yes, but among them Leiberman has instant name recognition, whereas Lamont does not.
Thanks.
31 - Liberal
Ruvy,
Connecticut (or Corrupticut as we prefer it to be called when discussing politics) has some unusual political dynamics:
Like most of the Northeast, Connecticut has a very large percentage of unaffiliated voters (44%). Compare that to Florida's 22%, Kentucky's 6% or Louisiana's 21%.
Lowell Weicker, who lost his Senate seat to Joe, ran for Governor as an independent and won.
Connecitcut elected the first female Governor. When we had six Representatives, three were women and one was a black, male Republican (yes, Virginia, there are some of those). Connecticut has had the only Jew in the Senate for as long as I've been alive.
A pro-choice Republican defeated a pro-life Democrat for a Congressional seat. (Sixty-eight percent of Connecticut residents identify themselves as pro-choice.)
The Republicans haven't fielded a credible Senatorial candidate since Weicker. Lieberman's last opponent is serving a 37-year Federal Prison term. I've tried posting comments about this year's sacrifice, but blogcritics' spam filter appears to be blocking "balckjack" "cosinos" and "gmabling."
It is entirely possible that the Republican will come in fourth (behind the Green Party candidate).
And now for some opinion:
If you're looking for in-depth analysis of political issues, the mainstream media is not going to help you. The media has portrayed this election as a referendum on the war in Iraq (as if this unusually liberal state is any kind of guage of the country as a whole). That is, like most political reporting, an incredible oversimplification.
The war is obviously the 400 lb. gorilla in this election cycle, but it is not the only animal in the room. Each of the other animals represent a small, but siginificant voting block.
Gays: Connecticut is the only State to have enacted Civil Union legislation and 56% of CT residents support marriage equity. (Joe voted for the defense of marriage act in 1996, Lamont supports full marriage rights for gays).
Parents: Joe's authorship of the No Child Left Behind Act and his subsequent claims that the only problem with it is its underfunding cost him the endorsement of teacher's unions. More than two-thirds of voters think that the Act itself needs to be changed.
Seniors: Joe has supported the privatization of Social Security and opposed price controls on prescription drugs.
There are other issues. Joe's support for NAFTA, etc. will hurt him with labor. His affinity for government censorship will cost him some votes.
But nothing will hurt Joe more than his own desparation. In 2000, Joe risked winning the Vice Presidency and in the process giving Gov. Rowland (recently released from Federal Prison) the right to appoint the deciding vote in the Senate. As he courts Republican votes (and campaign contributions) in a state where Republicans are indulging in a bit of self-hatred, that will bite him in the ass.
32 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Well, Liberal, apparently, if the comments here are any indication of reality (forgive me while I take a laughter break here), the Republicans have already ditched their sacrificial lamb. If Lamont sucks up the anti-war vote in CT, then a lot of the other folks you mention may follow along. Lieberman may haul out his skullcap and Jewish star and hustle the Jewish and pro-Israel vote in CT. But if he loved Israel that much, he would have picked up his ass and moved here like a cousin of his did years ago - like I did.
33 - David Flanagan
Liberal,
I agree that elections are not easily boiled down to one or two variables. On top of everything you mentioned above, Leiberman might lose simply on his inability to tap into the Democratic Party's highly effective get-out-the-vote apparatus.
If the race is close, then all the factors you listed, plus what I've mentioned might well make the difference. However, if the vote is not close, then all of those factors won't mean much at all.
Right now, Lieberman is polling with a 12-point lead of LIKELY voters over Lamont. If the spread stays at that level (a big "if," I know), then short of trying legal means to keep Lieberman off the ballot, Lamont's goose is cooked.
My two cents on the issue.
Thanks.
34 - Liberal
Ruvy,
CT is such a strange place that "Jewish" and Pro-Israel" are not one in the same. (Most of the Palestinian rights activists I know are Jewish).
Lieberman did well among Jewish voters in the primary, but not as well as might be expected (I think it was around 65%). Lieberman will get a lot of support from Republicans and conservatives over the next two months. Because support for GW is virtually non-existent among CT Jews, that support will actually hurt Joe with Jewish voters.
David,
You're right. GOTV is the key to this election. But I'm not sure which candidate it will help.
The thing that strikes me about the primary results is that Lieberman did better in poorer, urban areas. (CT is not all Fairfield County mansions. We have three of the ten poorest cities in the country.) This probably means that Lieberman did well among black voters. Obama came to CT early to support Joe. Sharpton and Jackson came in much later to support Lamont. They'll be back. Obama won't.
The Lieberman campaign, if they follow conventional wisdom, will work GOTV in the areas where their support was highest. They may find that that support is no longer there.
35 - Harold Driver
Republican Jake Knotts to decide today if he will challenge Sanford as Independent
By AARON GOULD SHEININ
Sen. Jake Knotts said Sunday he has the numbers, but he is not yet sure he would have the votes.
Knotts, R-Lexington, has until noon today to decide whether he'll submit stacks of petitions to the S.C. Election Commission in an attempt to place his name on the November ballot for governor as an independent.
"I really want to run and I really want to be governor," Knotts said. "But I've got to look into the woods and not just at the tree line."
Knotts' adviser, Rod Shealy Jr., said early Sunday afternoon that he did not have an accurate count but was sure they had more than 10,000 signatures -- the number required to get on the ballot.
Signed petitions "are still coming in from all over the state," Shealy said. "We're sitting down now to make sure that he's going to pass muster with the election commission. The enthusiasm is out there, boy."
Passing muster with the commission is a major concern and it could take several days for Knotts' petition to be accepted or rejected. The signatures must be verified as having come from registered voters.
Petition experts in South Carolina have said it is wise to turn in 14,000 to 15,000 signatures to be sure that 10,000 meet the state's standards.
But even if he has enough signatures, Knotts said he has yet to decide if he'll pull the trigger and run.