Non-Hispanic white children born in America today will be members of a minority by the time they reach their fifteenth birthdays, according to Census Bureau projections released today. The report projects that present-day minorities will exceed 50% of the child population by 2023. Said Dave Waddington, chief of the Census Bureau's population projection branch, in an interview with CNN, "Part of it is a higher fertility rate for some of the minority groups, Hispanics in particular. Those groups also tend to be more of the childbearing age. Non-Hispanic white people tend to be a little bit older."
The Census Bureau also forecasts that by 2042, every racial/ethnic group in the country, including non-Hispanic whites, will be a minority. With an expected total population of 439 million, minorities will comprise 54%, and Hispanics, whose population is expected to triple by then, from 47 million today to 133 million in 2042, will account for 30% of the total, compared to 15% today. “Majority minority” populations already exist in four states and the District of Columbia. In descending order, they are: Hawaii, D.C., New Mexico, California, and Texas. None of these could really be considered a surprise, but what is interesting are the states right behind these: Maryland, Mississippi, and Georgia, all of which are now 40% minority.
While non-Hispanic whites are expected to remain the largest single group, their growth rate over the next three decades will essentially be flat, going from 199.8 million today to 203.3 million (46%, down from 66%) in 2050. This group is actually expected to decline during the 2030s and 2040s.
The most significant demographic change forecast by the Census in its report is the projection regarding the aging of the population. By 2030, all Baby Boomers will have reached age 65, and people older than 65 will constitute 20% of the total. By 2050, the current senior cohort will more than double, from 38.7 million today, going to a projected 88.5 million. In the same time frame, those over 85 are expected to triple: from 5.4 million, to 19 million in 2050.
According to Waddington, all Census Bureau projections include the undocumented population; Census data includes all residents, regardless of legal status.
All of these shifts in the makeup of America's population have significant implications for our society in the future. It is already past time for policy makers and legislators at all levels to be taking these projections into account in their planning. Shifts in population makeup and overall size of this magnitude are certain to affect all aspects of American society; from the economy to health care and education. From urban planning to waste disposal, to energy, water supply, and taxation; all are certain to be impacted by these projections.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Lee Richards
Good article, Clavos.
It's doubtful that either Barack("You're So Vain")Obama or John("Gee, Our Old LaSalle Ran Great")McCain are ready to grasp these projections and their implications and begin to deal with them in a proactive way any time soon.
But the future has a way of happening anyhow, while we're making plans.
2 - Cassandra
How do you 'deal' with these projections? Just make sure everyone learns English and becomes part of the dominant shared culture. Skin color and nation of origin don't matter if they are all Americans.
3 - Baronius
"If we don't invest in educating and training...kids, we won't have a middle class. We'll have a very, very poor disposable class." I don't see where race plays into that. I get a lot of grief around here for insisting that racism is essentially dead in America, but I don't see how anyone outside the Center for the Study of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics can look at the population forecasts and ask, "what color?".
4 - Dan Miller
Clav,
Good points all. I do have a question, however.
With the perceived decline in the U.S. economy, there seems to be a bit of reverse migration. Although I don't expect the perceived decline in the economy to persist for very long, to what extent should it impact on the projections cited in your article?
Dan
5 - Clavos
Dan,
That's a good question, and one worth pondering. Unfortunately, I couldn't find specific data on the proportion of projected growth attributable to immigration vs. native births in each ethnic group; only current data; some of which is in the article.
I did find comments related to the Census projections indicating that the immigration rate will slow, and that the bulk of the growth, particularly in the Latino and Asian ethnic groups, will be due to ethnic births on US soil.
One can infer this phenomenon from some of the elements in the Census projections themselves. For example, the projection that "In 2050, the nation’s population of children is expected to be 62 percent minority, up from 44 percent today," can be taken as an indicator, since few children arrive as immigrants; nearly all are born here.
Given the number of imponderables implicit in your question (e.g. how strong is the reverse migration, how long will the economic contraction last, how deep will it be, etc.), I'm not sure one could come up with an accurate number.
6 - Condor
I'm in agreement with Cassandra. Americans agreed a couple of centuries ago that English was the language of the multicultural country. German lost out by a vote or two.
So, that was established. It should continue. And it usually does in a generation or two.
Once, the language is set, everyone is on better footing to integrate into the society.
And, I might add, like it or not... one is better equipped in the workforce (i.e. to make a living and support a family) if the language difficulties are overcome.
Dual signs, books, tv, etc... only delays the process and keeps those who could productive, at a lower level in the workforce.
It's a shame that this issue is being attacked on many fronts. It's a nonissue, learn the language and thrive in this society.
7 - Clavos
The issue of language is not even raised in the article; the point of the article was that, by 2050, there will be no dominant ethnic group, which begs the question:
Did Cassandra and Condor even read it?
8 - STM
What do the authors of the report say about Vikings of Irish descent whose longboat took a wrong turn at Puerto Vallarta and somehow ended up in downtown Guadalajara?
9 - Clavos
Sorry Señor, we no speeka da Englitch, but we trying to learn and, how you say? Feet een?
¡Ay, caramba! ¡Es dificil!
10 - Dr Dreadful
Fifteen what, Clav?
11 - Clavos
¡Hijole! ¿Joo see wat ay meen?
Fonny langwich, joo gringos haf...
12 - Dr Dreadful
...joo gringos haf...
Sounds like Eenglish spoken with a Mexican accent by someone who has a Viking accent in Spanish...!
13 - Baritone
Clav,
The constant pressure on government at all levels to minimize spending makes planning, or more importantly, building for the future very problematic. Much of our infrastructure - roads and highways, bridges, mass transportation, water systems, sewers and especially, schools, all need significant attention. In many cases, just maintaining the status quo has proven to be beyond the capabilities of some communities.
Inner city schools are generally those furthest off the pace. The problem is not only the schools themselves, but the supply and quality of teachers and administrators, the ability of school corporations to provide a full range of class offerings including state of the art science and math programs as well as exposure to art, music, literature, dance, theatre and other disciplines.
Frankly, I don't know what the best answer is regarding language. While I don't buy into the idea that English should be the one and only language owing to some patriotic notions, but, I do agree that the grasp of a common language does help people gain success in both school and the workplace.
I have no firm idea who between McCain and Obama is better equipped to handle this issue - or these many issues - on the federal level. I would tend to give Obama an edge in this department owing to his relative youth and his experience with the inner city. But it is obviously a very complex, multi-faceted problem which no one president, nor one administration will be able to make significant advances, but we need to take more than just baby steps in the coming years.
By the way, I agree with Lee. Good article Clav.
B
14 - Zedd
Clav
#11 sounds more like Cuban Spanglish. You've been in Florida too long. All I could imagine was Tony Montana. Don't sell out Bro. You have to represent for our region.
15 - Clavos
Thanks for the kind words, B'tone.
You are dead on in re the complexity of the problem. The very thought that our population will increase by 40% in a single generation; 135 million new Americans, with huge cohorts of elderly and child non-workers, will put an unprecedented strain on all of US.
As to the language: English is rapidly becoming the lingua franca of the entire world; it's not about to disappear here. My feeling is that many of those who raise the specter of English losing its place as the dominant language in America, are really camouflaging their own xenophobia.
I definitely think that Americans are behind the curve in the teaching of languages; the lack of mandatory foreign language studies in elementary school is a huge handicap, not only to the children, but to the nation as well. We are the laggard among First World, industrialized nations in that regard, and that's a shame.
16 - STM
Descended from Clavos Longsword and his mates, Patricio Skullsplitter and Ernesto the Bloodbeard.
Hey, guys what do you reckon? The Guadalajara Vikings ... great name for a footy team?
17 - Dr Dreadful
Interesting idea... We could make 'em play the American version... and then start a soccer team up north called Chivas Minneapolis.
18 - Baritone
Clav,
Yes, our system gives lip service to language and far too few college students become even modestly fluent in any other language. Far too few of them major in math or the sciences either. I did take a couple of years of French in college, but not having used it since leaves me little better off than if I'd never studied it at all.
My son double majored in vocal performance and German in college. Now, having lived in Germany for around 5 years or so, he is truly fluent in the language. He says he still has an accent, but most Germans cannot figure out where he's from unless he tells them.
By the way, he's performing the lead in Pink Floyd's "The Wall" somewhere in Holland on the 22nd. Anyone who happens to be in the neighborhood at that time should check it out.
B
19 - Ruvy
Clavos,
Great article, even if it is 100 years too late.
All I gotta say is;
mashiaH! mashiaH! mashiaH! Oy oy oy oy oyyyyy......!!! mashiaH! mashiaH! mashiaH! Oy oy oy oy oy, oyyyyy......!!!!!
Have a good Sabbath, dudes.
20 - troll
...the projections beg the question of sustainability
invest in desalination
21 - Clavos
invest in desalination
Got one. On my boat. 400 GPD, by RO.
22 - Baritone
That reminds me. I've been eating more "low sodium" food of late. The only problem I have with it is that it all invariably seems to need salt. :)
B
23 - Clavos
If the reason you're eating low sodium is your doctor, get a second opinion. They're pretty split on the "salt hardens your arteries" story these days.
I have eaten heavily salted food all my life (I LOVE the stuff!); my cardiovascular system is just about the only system in my body that's NOT flawed.
That said, I'm not a doctor; I just play one on TV :-), don't take my advice.
24 - Baritone
I have long been a salt nut. I don't have any serious problems. My BP is somewhat elevated, but not all that bad.
I'm one of those people who automatically puts salt on food without tasting it. People watch me and shake their heads (whilst I shake the salt :])
But, hell, I've eaten a lot over the years, pretty much all my life. (ha,ha) I am overweight and that exacerbates my knee problems. I've joined a gym (LA Fitness) and actually intend to go sometime.
Years ago I happened to find a can of "no salt" soup at a grocery in Bloomington, IN. I thought, what the hell, how bad could it be?
Pretty damn bad! Frankly, if it comes to not being able to eat salted food, I'd just as soon forget the whole thing.
B
25 - Baronius
I think that the latest studies show that too much salt can contribute to high blood pressure if you're prone to it genetically. If you're not, then reasonable salt intake is safe.
If you're trying to cut your sodium intake, just give up on soup altogether. Baritone's right, it's unimaginable how bad low-salt or no-salt soup tastes. Soup never struck me as salty, but there's a lot of salt in it, and it's terrible without salt. Just terrible.
Back to the topic: Clavos, if language isn't an issue, how do you see the minority aspect of the population growth to have an impact?