More than anything, it will set the stage for 2008, a wide open presidential election year that could see such wide ranging figures as John McCain, Rudolf Giuliani, and George Allan on the right and Hillary Clinton, Russ Feingold, and Mark Warner on the left looking to lay claim to a markedly different political era.
It should not be discounted that 2006 is the last chance for angry liberals and the ABB (Anybody But Bush) crowd from 2004 to “get back” at Bush. It remains to be seen if the now dispirited conservative base can rile itself up with its normal quotient of social issues – abortion and gay marriage being the most popular these days – to make up the difference.
Why all the gloom-and-doom?
On the strength of the economy, people should be more sunshiny, or so says Michael Barone (and the whole of the GOP communications team).
Underlying factors are clouding the overall rosy economic message. Gas prices, outsourcing, health care costs, and other factors are turning most people off to the administration’s rhetoric, from the “ownership society” on down to social security reform.
The big picture
Unfortunately for the president and for the rest of us, the political world is being largely driven by the real one:
Appearing with Tim Russert on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday morning, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice repeatedly turned aside questions on whether any American troops will likely be withdrawn from Iraq this year.
Upshot
A consistent criticism of the Bush administration is that it is long on politics and short on governing. The final test of that statement and of the Republican majority’s staying power is now in the offing:
Confronting the worst poll numbers seen in the West Wing since his father went down to defeat, President Bush and his team are focusing on the fall midterm elections as the best chance to salvage his presidency and are building a campaign strategy around tax cuts, immigration and national security.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - JP
The fact that the administration's ads are based upon the defense against investigations should tell us something. There wouldn't be any fear of "embarrassing and potentially painful investigations into pre-war intelligence, WMDs, domestic wiretapping, and other as yet unseen nooks and/or crannies of the kitchen sink" if the administration had approached the war ethically and above board.
2 - Dave Nalle
The fact is that the administration has decided to finally draw a few lines in the sand and take ethical stands on certain issues, like the war on terror and immigration. The positions they've taken are moderate and principled and not popular with segments of their own party. It's a gutsy thing to do, and will likely be paid back with a great deal of short-term resentment and grousing, but that may not hold true at the polls when as usual voters are faced with choosing between two unappealing alternatives and bite the bullet and take the less repulsive one.
Dave
3 - Arch Conservative
Yes the Dems are going to swoop in and sweep the 06 elections and save us all.
There will be world peace and prosperity for all once the Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are in charge. Oh happy day!
4 - Bliffle
"A consistent criticism of the Bush administration is that it is long on politics and short on governing."
They epitomize the current flock of corporate characters who know how to GET the job but don't know how to DO it.
5 - JP
Dave, if the Dems nominate a moderate like Wes Clark or Mark Warner, I can't see the public putting trust back in the GOP. At least I hope not.
6 - Dave Nalle
There's nothing more peaceful than a well-managed police state, AC. When we have Pelosi and Reid in charge to tell us what we're aloud to do and think our lives will all be much simpler
Dave
7 - Scott
Hold on, I'm getting a call from the NSA.
The NSA: "Suspending your rights for the duration of the endless war"
Dave: I think maybe it would be prudent if you actually like woke up now and paid attention.
8 - Arch Conservative
Hold on scott I'm getting a call fromt he UN.
UN: When the Dems are in charge here's how we plan on running America..........
Pelosi: Iran is threatening to Nuke us.
Reid: Hmmm we better ask Kofi Annnan what to do
Pelosi: Of course.
9 - Eric Berlin
Dave says:
The fact is that the administration has decided to finally draw a few lines in the sand and take ethical stands on certain issues, like the war on terror and immigration.
What "ethical stand" has it taken on the war on terror? I think everyone agrees that "terror" is bad.
I actually applaud Bush's attempt at "rational" immigration policy. I absolutely love Clift's (I believe) piece talking about how this is the right message, wrong messenger.
10 - DJRadiohead
EB, you're great people but I think this all amounts to well-written wishful thinking.
I have heard this for six years. Bush was "not legitimate" because of the controversy in 2000. Surely he would get boxed in and destroyed in 2002. Surely the people will hold Bush responsible in 2002 for the lapses that allowed 9/11 to happen. Surely Bush will be defeated in 2004 with such low approval numbers stemming from the unpopular war in Iraq. Surely the Anti-Bush/Anti-Republican masses will flock to the polls to hand Bush a stinging defeat and begin the impeachment hearings. Democrats and their allies in the press (and yes, Republicans have allies in the press as well, granted) have been repeating this since Bush's inauguration. I'm just not buying what's being sold. This is a distillation of the storylines that have been floated during this presidency.
Hell, we heard President Clinton might not last the week when the Lewinsky scandal first broke and he finished his term. It's not even just a GOP/Dem thing. I think the "Beltway" mentality that serious watchers of Washington have is very disconnected from the rank and file voters. I think there is a lot of Bush fatigue but I don't think it is a massive push for immediate change.
I've been wrong before and might be again: I continue to believe 2006 is going to play to a virtual draw with the big showdown coming in 2008.
11 - Eric Berlin
Dave goes on to say...
There's nothing more peaceful than a well-managed police state, AC. When we have Pelosi and Reid in charge to tell us what we're aloud to do and think our lives will all be much simpler
Say what? From abortion rights to gay rights to privacy rights, the religious conservative agenda -- who, like it or not, holds sway in the GOP, is far more likely to enforce what Americans should "do and think" as compared to even the most fringy, hippie-dripping liberal counterparts.
12 - Eric Berlin
My man DJR says:
EB, you're great people but I think this all amounts to well-written wishful thinking.
This piece is basically an anlysis of the current conventional wisdom.
I'd be the last person to underestimate Rove and co., and as the top of the article suggests, the "storyline" is poised to show GOP gains from now until November.
For example, if Bush bumps up even a point or two in polls, you're going to see pols falling all over themselves, talking about how they've turned the corner.
13 - Arch Conservative
Conversations from a Democrat majority part II......
Reid: Kofi says we better sit tight and wait to see what happens.
Pelosi: Ok I have an appointment with my plastic surgeon this afternoon to get my weekly 100,000 cc botox injection in my face.
Reid: And I have to attend banquet for Bill Clinton. He's getting the man of the year award from Hooters.
Pelosi: Again?
T. Kennedy: Er ...um er.. um .....is it happy hour yet?
14 - DJRadiohead
Like you and I (and many others) have said over and over... six months is an eternity in politics. The storylines will change 2 or three times between now and then- all the more reason I expect a virtual draw (likely in the form of a couple-seat pickup by Dems without either chamber switching control).
15 - Heckler
Dave says; "There's nothing more peaceful than a well-managed police state, AC. When we have Pelosi and Reid in charge to tell us what we're aloud to do and think our lives will all be much simpler"
Now this makes a monday morning worthwhile, a bit of light comedic fantasy to start the week off right. I can only wonder what version of alternate reality Dave occupies that allows him to even type this drivel after we have had all the stink and dust up over all the crap that has come out of this administration.
From the Plame leak, to the now Attorney General saying the old Inquisition tradition of waterboarding is ok, to GITMO and abu Grahib, bypassing FISA and the 1934 Telecom act and who knows what other fun breaches of our rights.
Yeah, defend Bush , but call the opposition a "police state", good old Dave wins today's "Orwellian Award" presented by Karl Rove. The award is a nice depleted uranium bust of Machiavelli kissing Geobbels, suitable for the mantle piece.
Keep up the good work!
16 - mschannon
Can we ever have a political discussion without both sides leaping to the extremes lobbing water balloons at each other? Jesus, talk about political drivel.
The fact is the American public--based on every poll taken by every pollster--is growing more concerned and frightened by the administration's approach. I've talked to key Republican operatives in D.C. who are scared to death. I've also talked to Dem. operatives who admit the Dems aren't really prepared to take advantage of the situation.
Pelosi & Reid are weak, will always be weak, and will have nothing to say about 2008 and very little effect on 2006. Bringing them up is just creating a straw man and knocking him down. It shows no political savvy or understanding of how the process works.
Eric has written a thoughtful, well-research piece that was long on ideas and short on polemics. The posters on this thread would do well to emulate his approach.
In Decaf Veritas
17 - Matthew T. Sussman
But Mark, Ted Kennedy killed someone!
(Runs away)
18 - Teddy on the Bridge
Era...era..I did not...era...kill that women! She...era...should have known better than to...era...get in a car with a drunk like me!
era...waitress..can I have another Chivas?
Teddy!
19 - Jet in Columbus
Suss Ted Kennedy was cleared of all charges over 40 years ago.
Repeatedly bringing it back up is not going to change that fact.
20 - Teddy on the Bridge
Era...my son is..era...making his father proud...era...I am sure he will...era by successfull in killing someone...era while on a bender!
teddy
21 - Eric Berlin
If the retort to the question, "Is the GOP in trouble?" is things like Ted Kennedy "jokes" and Pelosi botox allusions (bad taste on the first, who the hell cares on the latter, says I), I don't think that speaks very well for Republican chances this November!
Circling back to DJR's thoughtful remarks: you may well be right. However, I'd say that the Dems have the best chance since '94 to take back a house of Congress, with the House looking like the best bet. Indeed, the number of competitive House seats current held by Republicans has dramatically increased over the last six months.
That said, the Dems have a long road ahead -- if they don't understand that very stark fact, they will once again be disappointed.
22 - RogerMDillon
"When we have Pelosi and Reid in charge to tell us what we're aloud to do and think our lives will all be much simpler"
Glad to see others point out NSAlle's foolishness and/or dishonesty. It always baffles me that people find him so smart when he completely lacks any wisdom. Apparently, he's easily bought off with tax cuts and people are impressed by links that work. Not a personal attack, but an opinion derived from his writings.
23 - JP
EB - #11 - amen!
McShannon - The GOP wants to equate Democrats with Pelosi because they *don't* want Democrats equated to Mark Warner. At least they have a little brains, b/c that's not a battle they're ready for. Especially now.
And Heckler, yes--the police state is what we're getting glimpses of now. While I, like every American, am ethically opposed to terrorism, the proper stand was not to incompletely "declare war" on it. There's a brilliant essay out today suggesting "Only Cowards think we're at war." Methinks Americans are finally waking up to that fact.
24 - Repubilcan in Princeton
The question is not whether or not the DEMS take the house, senate or Whitehouse...the question is what will they do once they win?
Me thinks the win will be just one battle in the war...there is no platform and there are no leaders in the Dem party...at least not yet..and please dont mention "Osama Boomrocka" Ted kennedy
These are just the facts!
25 - mschannon
Hmm. From Princeton. I guess there's nothing left to say if those are just the facts.
I concede. I'm going off right now to change my allegiance to the GOP. I'm now a neocon.
Goddamn liberal pinko weak-kneed mommy-boys in the Democrap party gonna turn this country into fag-town if we real men don't stand up fer America and what she really means to real Americans. They don't know nothing', they don't do nothing', they don't stand fer nothin' except taking from the rich and givin' to the poor. Damn communists if you ask me. And Nancy Pelosi is about as cute as a cotton ball soaked in garlic. So there.
How'm I doin?
In Decaf Veritas