It's like picking at a scab or watching a NASCAR car flipping end over end. We just can't look away from the Democratic primary.
My very politically astute mother urged me not to write this article, deriding it as mere 'common wisdom' and perhaps beneath the high quality of punditry which I aspire to maintain. But I'm afraid the thought keeps nagging at me and I can't resist, even if I'm stating something which may seem a bit facile and even obvious to some.…
Article comments
76 - Baritone
"They know which side their bread is buttered on and take the easy route and support the party which supports them. The problem is that this creates a parasitic relationship which ultimately works to their detriment.
My god, Dave, you should hear yourself. So blacks should align themselves with the party that doesn't give a rats ass about them? They should vote for republicans who wouldn't so much as provide bread, let alone any butter to put on it. You are so incredibly elitist and condescending it's hard to imagine. Vote republican and we'll do the black community the service of leaving them entirely adrift to fend for themselves, so they can pull themselves up by their bootstraps, assuming of course that they have boots. If not, well, that's on them. Anyhow, it's the private sector's job to help people - go talk to the bleeding hearts at the United Way for christ's sake.
The government's job is to wage war - in which we fully expect the black community to offer up its young - and to support the corporate community. As long as we stay rich, who knows, some trifling bit of coinage might "trickle" from our magnanimous fingers (along with a knowing wink) down to the poor's upraised hands.
Your contempt for the poor is unvarnished and hanging out there for all to see.
B-tone
77 - bliffle
Clavos
"Well, the business community creates jobs."
No it doesn't. Market demand (consumption) creates jobs.
If there were no demand for, say, expensive yachts, all the businessmen in Florida could go into the yacht business and they'd make not one sale and create one job.
78 - Clavos
bliffle,
Partly true. You can have all the demand in the world, but if no one moves to meet that demand, you ain't got no jobs...
79 - Les Slater
NOBODY expects ANYTHING from the Republican Party.
The problem is with the Democratic Party; there is a great desire for change. The Democratic Party neither offers anything strategically different than the Republican Party nor do its two candidates show much difference between each other.
Even though there is no substantial difference between Clinton and Obama, Clinton is the safer candidate. Change is not her central theme; it’s her experience.
The ruling class does not want to raise anyone’s expectation that anything FUNDAMENTAL is going to change. In that case Clinton is a better choice than Obama. If Obama is forced on them they will use their power and experience to manage him to suit their needs.
The reality is that there will be no fundamental difference no matter which of the three candidates, or possibly some dark horse, gets elected. Any significant change in direction will have more to do with external factors than any of the personalities at the head.
80 - Baritone
I would offer this as regards the desirabilty of "change:" How much change do we really want?
Dramatic change in government would also likely entail dramatic disruptions in the economy and in any number of other areas of our daily lives, perhaps including violence.
Some changes are certainly needed and would be welcome by many. But, in order to retain at least nominal stability, any changes should be incremental - baby steps. People who call for drastic changes either don't understand the nature and fragility of civilization, or they really want disruption and violence, thinking (stupidly) that it will lead to a better world.
B-tone
81 - Dr Dreadful
People who call for drastic changes either don't understand the nature and fragility of civilization, or they really want disruption and violence, thinking (stupidly) that it will lead to a better world.
Hark! I can hear a pipe-organ tuning up - somewhere in the direction of Jerusalem...?
82 - Lee Richards
Interesting to see that Dave and Clavos really dislike those pesky 'evangelical' or 'crusading' atheists.
Does that mean you guys stand against those anti-theists who argue that tax money shouldn't go to support faith-based activities and sectarian schools in America?
And do those who oppose mandatory prayer in schools annoy you? And those who want science, not theology, taught in biology classes?
If they make you nervous, what about their opposite numbers--a Huckabee who wants the Constitution re-written into a Christian document? And candidates who kiss Robertson's and Dobson's behinds? Shouldn't someone speak out against actual and potential theism in our government?
Maybe their willingness to crusade against threats to our freedoms is really an important safeguard of your right to choose to be an atheist--one that you should appreciate more than disdain.
83 - Les Slater
B-tone,
What a few people want or don’t want has relatively little to do with how things happen. In the case of the Bush war strategy, this was being discussed and debated in ruling circles for quite some time before a team was put together. It took a sizable section of the ruling class getting behind it and organizing an election to put that team at the head of the executive branch of the federal government before they got a chance to try it out. There was an enormous shakeup in the structure of the military and its leadership. The losing side in that debate was quite bitter and there are still those who have not forgotten or forgiven.
My wishes, or as some might perceive to be my wishes, have no causal effect on what happens in this election. What I do see though is that there are a LOT of people that want to see the fucking government do at least something to relieve the pain of the deteriorating economic situation. They are also tired of the war. People that believe the Democrats are actually going to SOLVE anything will be sorely disappointed. There’s already some disappointment with the results of the heralded ’06 elections.
I’m not wishing this. Wishing does no good. I believe there are some expectations that more will happen than will. It is my judgment that the ruling class would like a fairly high voter turnout but will, and does, feel apprehensive about people getting too carried away with their expectations.
Les
84 - bliffle
clavos:
"bliffle,
Partly true. You can have all the demand in the world, but if no one moves to meet that demand, you ain't got no jobs..."
But someone WILL move to make the business, even if it's a blackmarket and they have to risk their lives and freedom, as in the drug market.
But nooone can force customers to appear where their is no demand, except for the peculiar case of some advertising campaigns, such as Pet Rocks.
The very greed that so many businessmen brag about will manipulate them to fill a market need as surely as if they were androids commanded by their masters. So there's no need for the government to extend incentives, tax breaks, no-bid contracts and outright grants and loans.
85 - Baritone
Talk about creating a market for a product absolutely no one needs; think of Staple's "Easy Button." Here is an item which is nothing more than advertising, yet for which people are willing to pay. Go figure.
Les,
Elections are nothing if not about high expectations. Every candidate for every office essentially promises that upon their ascendancy to the sought after office, we will all forthwith be living in the land of milk and honey.
Zelda Fitzgerald once wrote: "We grew up founding our dreams on the infinite promise of American advertising." That is no less true of political promises. In order to have a chance of winning any seriously contested political campaign, a candidate must promise the world, must promise much more than anyone could possibly deliver. That in itself is sad. Even sadder, perhaps, is that a great number of people - voters in this case, actually believe it.
It is no wonder that people become angry and skeptical once it is made plain that the gravy train is not likely to stop at their particular doorstep as they were led to believe before entering the voting booth. What is troubling, though, is that many of these same crestfallen folks will, in a few short years, once again enthusiastically jump upon some politician's band wagon in the renewed belief that THIS time will be different. THIS candidate will keep his or her promises and all of our cares and concerns will melt away like an ice cube on a June street. It's a bewildering cycle.
Obviously, most of us DO want change. We DO want our involvement in Iraq to end, or at least diminish dramatically. We DO want a more equitable and stable economy. We DO want more and better opportunities for education and jobs. Some believe that will come at the hands of John McCain. Some believe that Hillary or Barack will provide the strength of leadership to effect those changes.
You are probably correct in that any changes which do happen with those and other important issues will not be of a wholesale nature. As is normally the case, we must swallow many of our desires and expectations accepting with a smile (fronting a clenched jaw, perhaps) the less than dramatic, incremental changes that will be nevertheless touted as a significant change in the status quo, marching us off in a great new direction, into a new frontier and other blathering incantations.
Looking at the larger picture and in the long run, perhaps those carefully measured "baby steps" will be more fortuitously taken than a giant leap into the abyss.
B-tone
86 - Clavos
"But someone WILL move to make the business, even if it's a blackmarket and they have to risk their lives and freedom, as in the drug market."
And, in so doing, they will create jobs.
My original point was businesses create jobs.
87 - troll
the answer = 'the egg'
88 - Les Slater
B-tone,
“Looking at the larger picture and in the long run, perhaps those carefully measured ‘baby steps’ will be more fortuitously taken than a giant leap into the abyss.”
I too like looking at the big picture. First of all, not looking to the future, whatever steps have already been taken, have been taken in a direction that is putting a greater and greater portion of the population deeper and deeper into a hole. And it’s not just the recent sub-prime, credit crunch thing either. This has been going on for decades, not just since Bush got into office.
I don’t think people want change just for the sake of change. I believe people want and hope that the DIRECTION will change. I don’t think there is wish for any radical change, just a BEGINNING to go in a direction that’s not going to be worse. That’s where I believe people will be disappointed because none of these candidates, or their parties, is going to change direction.
Any change of direction in government policy will be forced on them by circumstances beyond their control.
Les
89 - Clavos
Lee,
Sorry, didn't mean to pick only on atheists.
Zealots. Of any stripe.
90 - Baritone
The majority of people in this country, and throughout much of the world have been inexorably and incrementally moved further and further from the center of power. As government, the hallowed military/industrial complex and other mega corporations entrench themselves into the fabric of our day to day existence we experience a corresponding inability to extracate ourselves from their grasp. It is, of course, a symbiotic relationship. We crave the toys they provide for us. They keep us distracted. They keep us wanting more. From McMansions to big gas guzzler cars to big screen TVs, laptops, Ipods, and other hi-tech play things, designer clothes and more, we are now living the good life - at least some of us are.
But for the most part, we are all hopelessly out of the loop. We are no more empowered by our relative wealth than the average serf living in a thatched hut under the thumb of a feudal lord. But now, we have central heating and air and a Starbucks on every corner.
B-tone
91 - Dave Nalle
I too like looking at the big picture. First of all, not looking to the future, whatever steps have already been taken, have been taken in a direction that is putting a greater and greater portion of the population deeper and deeper into a hole. And it's not just the recent sub-prime, credit crunch thing either. This has been going on for decades, not just since Bush got into office.
Les. People did not get into this hole because of the actions of government or the actions of businesses. More than anything else they put themselves into a hole by overspending, borrowing and not managing their money responsibly. The proof of this is the fairly substantial minority of the population living under the same circumstances who are NOT in debt up to their ears and defaulting on a ridiculous mortgage.
I don't think people want change just for the sake of change. I believe people want and hope that the DIRECTION will change. I don't think there is wish for any radical change, just a BEGINNING to go in a direction that's not going to be worse. That's where I believe people will be disappointed because none of these candidates, or their parties, is going to change direction.
None of the candidates are going to address the real problem because government isn't the solution. The PEOPLE need to change and hoping for change from the government is just another attempt to pass the buck and not accept responsibility for their own actions. Those trying to sell change in the campaign are mainly just selling a panacea and telling the people that government is going once again to save them from themselves.
Dave
92 - Baronius
Baritone, it sounds like you're taking the stance that you condemned earlier - that people are tricked into voting against their interests.
Dave says (or implies) that most blacks in the US vote as a bloc for a party that screws them over. You say that we are so distracted by our bright shiny toys that we don't realize who's running the show. It's the same position.
And there's nothing wrong with it. If you support the Democratic ticket, you're saying that 50% of the country (and the majority of men) vote stupidly. I support the Republicans, which means I believe that half the country and most of the women act like morons in the voting booth.
Second subject: the Democratic Party is racist. They support judging people on the basis of race. Republicans oppose quotas and set-asides. We don't think about race; you do. You're racists. There isn't even wiggle room on this issue.
93 - Baritone
Bolonius,
I've really gotten under your skin, haven't I? Struck a nerve. You're poised and ready to jump on my every key stroke. Admirable, I must say, uh, if somewhat pathetic.
Your self righteous presumptious republican pomposity is showing. You should tuck it in.
Of course, it serves you to believe your delusions. You're obviously a good Party man, though. They've got you walking in lock step, just as you should be.
I DO admire the skill with which you and others in "The Party" have managed over the years to completely flip flop the argument and flim flam the public. You take the pig's ear of republican racial hatred and turn it into the silk purse of a twisted kind of racial ecumenism. You'll go far.
By the way, I'm finding ample room to wiggle, thank you very much.
B-tone
94 - Clavos
Sorry, guys, but it's the nation, whites and blacks alike, that's racist.
It's illegal now, so it's gone underground, and some people have actually learned not to fear and hate, but it's still there and it's still ubiquitous, nonetheless.
Even the schools have de facto re-segregated themselves; if not in the classrooms, certainly in the yards and playgrounds.
95 - Dave Nalle
You take the pig's ear of republican racial hatred and turn it into the silk purse of a twisted kind of racial ecumenism.
Baritone, there's still no evidence of any sort that historically, even in recent history, the policies of the Republican party are racist in any sense. There may be individual republicans who are racist just as there are individual democrats who are, but from the moment the party was founded even to this very day, the GOP has managed NEVER to enshrine any form of racism in its party platform or official policies. The Democrats certainly cannot claim that.
One of the reasons I'm willing to support McCain is that he's clearly able to take the lead in maintaining the GOP's positive position on racial issues and draw a line which the nativists will not be allowed to drag the party across.
Dave
96 - bliffle
Nobody, outside of BC, seems to be paying attention to this issue.
Hmmmm. I wonder if it's just a red herring that Dave has dragged across the trail? You know, to distract attention from the Iraq Invasion and the Economy, two issues that are killing the republicans among the general public.
97 - Dave Nalle
Nobody, outside of BC, seems to be paying attention to this issue.
Bliff, do you not read newspapers, watch TV or at least get news from the radio? As I noted in the opening of the article, the concern over this issue is so ubiquitous that my mother warned me the article might be dismissed as already established 'common wisdom'.
Hmmmm. I wonder if it's just a red herring that Dave has dragged across the trail? You know, to distract attention from the Iraq Invasion and the Economy, two issues that are killing the republicans among the general public.
No one is paying any attention to Iraq anymore and the economy issue is largely a fiction of the left. I particularly love Obama's plan to create 15 million new jobs. I wonder who he's going to give them to? Illegal aliens? There sure aren't enough job seeking natives to fill them.
Dave
98 - Bennett
"and the economy issue is largely a fiction of the left."
Dave
You are showing signs of mental breakdown. Please seek help.
99 - handyguy
Does "the left" include the Wall St Journal and The Economist, Dave? They are both talking recession daily and weekly, respectively. What does it take to convince you? Pretty outrageous thing to say.
100 - Clavos
"Pretty outrageous thing to say."
Perhaps. And perhaps not...
Forbes is a respectable and recognized authority on economic matters, n'est-ce-pas?
101 - Bennett
I'm sorry Dave, that was flippant.
Your Republican President just initiated a truly moronic "Economic Stimulus Package" because of what? A fantasy? A fabrication of the left?
The housing meltdown is simply spin by the left? The losses of the NYSE and other global stock markets are all a dream? The exploding federal deficit is all just a plot by Democrats to discredit the current administration?
I know that the "War In Iraq" is but a small part of the problem. Medicare and Welfare are bankrupting the USA, so what does Bush do? Offer a one time handout of eight to fifteen hundred dollars to the bottom 70% of American wage earners, as if it will actually make a difference to anybody. Fifteen hundred dollars to my wife, child, and I will not even show up on our balance sheet.
What's the point? I'm watching and waiting, as are many Americans, for the housing market to bottom out (sometime in the next 12 months). With the inventory of houses on the market, it's going to be at least two years before the construction industry even thinks of starting up again.
Banks are using the lower fed rate to try and build up their cash reserves. No passing these lower rates on to borrowers for at least six-eight months, and why would they bother, when home prices are likely to continue to drop in the meantime?
But hey, no one is thinking about the economy, or Iraq, or why you are so desperate to spin every freaking event into a plot by the Dems to fuck the country up. Your boy in the white house has set a very high bar for that, and he's still got 11 months to find ways to put even more money into the pockets of the likes of your "Elitist Pig" class.
It's fun reading your comments just to see the lengths you'll go to justify your self serving BS.
Amusing, that.
102 - bliffle
Strange. I haven't read anyplace else about "Watching the Inexorable Trainwreck of the Democratic Primary".
103 - handyguy
Clavos, as I've said before, and you affirmed, neither I nor you nor anyone else knows whether we are already in a recession, about to enter one, or have dodged a bullet. But there are multiple market crises going on and they are not finished yet.
Rich Karlgaard is the publisher of Forbes, but that was an opinion piece you linked to, not journalistic reporting. He can express an opinion like everyone else, but does it mean more?
When the Wall St Journal writes about the cascading bad news every day on its front page, something is up. When The Economist says, in its latest issue, that the US is poised to enter, if it hasn't already, a recession, that's meaningful, because that's a very careful, serious magazine [and not of the left, at least on economic issues].
Dave's remark was flippant but we deserve to have it explained, I think.
104 - handyguy
Most of the talking heads on Meet the Press etc today seemed to think Obama was getting close to inevitability - unless Clinton has victories in Ohio and Texas and Pennsylvania. If she loses even one of those, the game is up. And Texas is looking more like a toss-up lately.
105 - Bennett
Rich Karlgaard is the publisher of Forbes, but that was an opinion piece you linked to, not journalistic reporting. He can express an opinion like everyone else, but does it mean more?"
Exactly! And the responding comments to his article are (for the most part) insightful, and pose serious questions to his take on the issue
106 - Clavos
Test
107 - Dr Dreadful
Problem with the comments, Clav?
108 - Clavos
handy,
I've had a comment prepared since about 4 hours ago that for whatever reason just would not post. It included the observation that the definition of a recession is two down quarters in a row, and until we have those, everything published on the issue is an opinion.
I also had three links; one to CNN, quoting Bernanke and Paulson saying we do not have a recession, nor do they expect one to develop in 2008, one to the CEO of the Philadelphia Fed with a similar statement, and one to the Minneapolis Star Tribune with a similar assessment from their board of economists.
I found many more in the same vein, but as you know, we can only have three links per comment.
I'm not going to try to link to them again, as I suspect they were what made the software choke.
109 - STM
There is NO recession in the US, and I bet there won't be one. Tougher times maybe, but not the whole nine yards. This is the time for Americans to start doing what do they best - making a buck, and not from selling snake oil.
Manufacturing is the key here ... and US- manufactured products rank up there with the best in the world. I know which I'd sooner buy in comparison to many other nations' goods right now.
That's how the US economy can take full advantage of the lower dollar.
As for the Dems' trainwreck, all I want to know is when someone is actually going to really WIN something.
110 - Dave Nalle
Your Republican President just initiated a truly moronic "Economic Stimulus Package" because of what? A fantasy? A fabrication of the left?
How about an election year and a desire to find a backdoor way to effectively cut taxes even more?
The housing meltdown is simply spin by the left? The losses of the NYSE and other global stock markets are all a dream? The exploding federal deficit is all just a plot by Democrats to discredit the current administration?
The federal deficit has no impact on the day to day welfare of the average American and its impacts on the larger economy are both positive and negative. As for the housing situation, it's hardly a meltdown. It's a reasonable regionalized retraction of the market and the fruit of poor practices among lenders. And the NYSE was obviously overvalued. It hasn't exactly crashed. Keep an eye on it. It's not going into a death spiral.
Offer a one time handout of eight to fifteen hundred dollars to the bottom 70% of American wage earners, as if it will actually make a difference to anybody. Fifteen hundred dollars to my wife, child, and I will not even show up on our balance sheet.
It's not a 'handout', it's returning to people money taken by the government - effectively acknowledging that the people can spend that money better than the government can.
What's the point? I'm watching and waiting, as are many Americans, for the housing market to bottom out (sometime in the next 12 months). With the inventory of houses on the market, it's going to be at least two years before the construction industry even thinks of starting up again.
And yet, construction continues all over the country, except in a few isolated areas. It may be growing less than it did a couple of years ago, but it's hardly shut down.
Banks are using the lower fed rate to try and build up their cash reserves. No passing these lower rates on to borrowers for at least six-eight months, and why would they bother, when home prices are likely to continue to drop in the meantime?
Good. Maybe they've learned something.
But hey, no one is thinking about the economy, or Iraq,
I didn't say no one was worrying about the economy. I think the fearmongering of the left has been quite effective. But except for a small body of extremists the war has definitely moved to the back burner.
Dave
111 - Dave Nalle
Strange. I haven't read anyplace else about "Watching the Inexorable Trainwreck of the Democratic Primary".
You're right, Bliffle. No one else has used my colorful title when they've written about this subject. Should that be surprising?
Dave
112 - bliffle
Seems to me most people are saying the dems have an abundance of riches with two promising candidates and a lot of dem voter enthusiasm. YMMV.
113 - NIk
So this is the first exciting and invigorating Demo primary we've had in a good 2 decades at least, but it's a "trainwreck"? I think if anything this campaign has been good for the Dems.
114 - Dave Nalle
Nik. Read the article before you comment, not just the title. It's only a trainwreck if insiders put Clinton on the head of the ticket instead of Obama, as many think is possible.
Dave
115 - Dave Nalle
Bliffle. I want to urge you to go check out a transcript or video of yesterday's episode of Meet the Press - almost a week after I wrote this article. The first half of the show is taken up with Tim Russert and Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer discussing EXACTLY what I talk about in this article at great length.
I doubt they'd have talked about it for half an hour if it was just my fantasy.
Dave
116 - Liberal
Clibamccain for President!!!
What everybody misses in these discussions is that there's really no difference between these parties and these candidates. The political rhetoric is just pandering to different groups to get the numbers but they all serve the same masters.
Among Obama's largest contributors you find Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Jp Morgan - Chase and Citigroup. Clinton's major donors include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan - Chase, Lehman Brothers and Citigroup and McCain, who is of course the poster-child for campaign finance reform, has gotten most of his money from Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan - Chase and Credit Suisse.
Those who own this country will continue to do so and they don't care about abortion, flag-burning, war, gay marriage, affirmative action. They care about money and they're quite happy to let us fight over these insignificancies. While we do this, we're paying no attention to the man behind the curtain.
So, I'm voting for Clibamccain - and so are the rest of you.
117 - Irene Wagner
Liberal: I'm conservative and I, too, see the same sickening lack of significant difference between the contenders the media has been supporting: Obama, McCain, Clinton.
Compare McClintAma's sources of support you listed to the top five contributors to Ron Paul's presidential campaign: Army, Navy, Air Force, Google, Microsoft. The support of the military for Ron Paul is key since he is the only truly anti-war candidate remaining in the race.
Contrast heavy support by the major Media industry to McClintAma to the support Ron Paul has from Google and Microsoft. Without the Internet, most people outside of his congressional district wouldn't even have heard any of Ron Paul's establishment-challenging ideas, despite his very successful fund-raising for his presidential campaign.
Incidentally, the monies from his presidential campaign are being kept separate from the funds to defend his congressional seat--as it is illegal to do otherwise. The newest rumor that is sweeping the blogosphere: "Ron Paul is running scared -- using his Presidential campaign's donors' money to subsidize a desperate last-minute attempt to save his Congressional seat." More lies, designed to smear a candidate who really would have provided---and is still providing--a voice for American voters who want a REAL alternative.
118 - Irene Wagner
“Dave Nalle: “the war has definitely moved to the back burner.” Sadly, I have to agree with you. Gay rights- promoters and their opponents seem to be generating an inordinate amount of passion by comparison. Look for politicians to cynically use and pander to both sides of the gay issue for the next several decades, just as they do with abortion and have been doing since the early 1970’s.
As the "Support Our Troops" bumper stickers fade, calls from American servicemen being called up for a second tour of duty (and their families) are to the GI Rights Hotline for advice in leaving the military were being made at the rate of 3000 per month as of 2005. Moral objections of many soldiers were developed while they witnessed and were made to participate in what they considered unethical acts, such as attacks on civilians, during their first tours. Honorable discharges for personal reasons after first tours are also being ignored as calls are being made for second tours of duty.
You’re wondering how Obama is going to fill the 15 million jobs he plans to create? I’m more curious about where the military is going to find the manpower for its next adventure in Iran"which Clinton and McCain definitely support and Obama has variously supported and not supported.
119 - Irene Wagner
More from the "extremists" in uniform who still oppose the war.