I think therefore, it all depends on if the Ugandans can remain safe.
If the U[ganda]P[eoples]D[efense]F[orce] registers high numbers of causalities, then they will put pressure on other countries to speed up deployment."
Speaking to the press, Ugandan commander Katumba Wamala said of the lull in fighting: "It’s not yet a time to celebrate. Once they [the militiamen] come out [and] surrender, their lives will be protected. If that is not done, then we could have a situation where those small groups become a source of insecurity."
The latest path the government is taking, if anything makes an end to the violence less likely. The T.F.G. has appointed two of the warlords responsible for much of Somalia's anarchy between Siad Barre's ousting in 1991 and the U.I.C taking power in 2006. Abdi Hassan Awale, popularly known as Qaybdiid was appointed national police boss, and Mohamed Dheere, mayor of the gun-infested capital.
Dheere was the self-appointed local governor whose forces secured Jowhar, 90 km (55 miles) north of Mogadishu, as a temporary base for the interim government in 2005, after it was born out of tortuous peace talks in neighbouring Kenya. Qaybdiid was one of the last of a group of U.S.-backed warlords to surrender to the U.I.C. advances.
These people may head powerful militia's but rival clan militia's are playing their part in the insurgency because of the dominance of President Abudalahi Yusuf's Darod clan in the T.F.G., these appointments will only heighten the clan's role in the violence.
Richard Kavuma of the Uganda Observer told me his view of the appointments: "I think this is a catch22 situation. The ex-war lords are dangerous if outside government; but they are hard to satisfy when inside."
The other government attempt to end the violence that is also having the opposite effect is attempting to disarm the capital. Until Somalia's clans are given more of a say in the running of the country none of the clans are going to give up their arms and accept the domination of their rivals. Put simply: unless something drastic changes in Somalia, I am afraid that the violence could last longer than 15 years.
Article comments
1 - Zedd
I heard a report on NPR which painted the situation as hopeless. This was a report which included a panel of regional people.
The tragedy is that the civilian population are just sitting ducks. These thugs don't know how to stop themselves and Ethiopians in no mood position to help end anyone's conflict since they have been entangled with Eritrea for decades.