The lull in fighting since Friday allowed the dead to be retrieved and a small contingent of aid workers into the capital with food, medical supplies and blankets for the refugees — altough some of the refugees have taken advantage of the calm and returned to their homes. The guns falling silent also brought claims by T.F.G. leader Abdullahi Yusuf that they had defeated the insurgents, but "western" diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity said that although the insurgents had been weakened and were lacking ammunition they had not been defeated. Most analysts predict that the trend will continue: the insurgents will lie low, regroup and re-emerge with a fresh, even more intense wave of attacks.
This fear can be seen in Ethiopia's latest way of dealing with the fighting. Reports by UNICEF and international reporters tell of Ethiopian and T.F.G. forces doing house to house searches and arresting dozens of men of fighting age — whether they are known combatants or not. Those reports went hand in hand with reports of a decentralized Gauntanamo in the horn of Africa, holding hundreds of young African males without charge or adequate legal representation — pending interrogation and possibly torture.
Another trend that is continuing in Somalia is the low likelihood of a permanent end to the fighting. The African Union has taken charge of pacifying Somalia, but the proposed 7000 strong AU force is still only 1500 Ugandan troops. Although, how even 7000 African Union troops are supposed to quell an insurgency that 20,000 well funded, armed and trained Ethiopian troops are struggling to keep at bay is beyond me. Perhaps that is why the other countries have been reluctant to honour their pledges, although officially, a lack of A.U. funding and equipment is making the deployments difficult.
Richard Kavuma of the Uganda observer told me via e-mail: "The Ugandan Defense Ministry appears convinced that the other countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Burundi will eventually make good of their promise.
Each time there are reports of intensified fighting, the army comes out to stress that the Ugandan troops are not involved or affected. That, for me, shows that they are conscious of the fact that Ugandans are watching that space and would not like their soldiers to be killed needlessly.
Article comments
1 - Zedd
I heard a report on NPR which painted the situation as hopeless. This was a report which included a panel of regional people.
The tragedy is that the civilian population are just sitting ducks. These thugs don't know how to stop themselves and Ethiopians in no mood position to help end anyone's conflict since they have been entangled with Eritrea for decades.