Violence Unlikely to End in Somalia

1300 people have died in the fighting in Somalia's capital Mogadishu since February, mostly civilians. The violence has been ebbing and flowing since the Ethiopian military helped the Transitional Federal Government forces to oust the Union of Islamic Courts Dec. 2006.

The U.I.C had swept to power in Mogadishu and most of southern and central Somalia, mid-2006, replacing 15 years of widespread anarchy with their brand of socially restrictive calm. Now they have gone, the capital is facing an insurgency of their remnants, which is responsible for much of the violence.

However rival clans jostling for power; the cause of the anarchy before the U.I.C. took control, have returned to take up their part in the current violence. Adding Ethiopian troops to the mix, which are deeply hated by most Somalis, as well as one clan's predominance in the government and its ill-advised policies, we can only hope the current violence doesn't last another fifteen years.

Most of the 1300 dead have been civilians. In fact so many civilians have been killed that reports in the press are calling their "massacre" a "war crime", because of the government and Ethiopian's heavy shelling and air-strikes in populated areas. According to the same reports: the U.S.' logistical and direct support of the Ethiopian and T.F.G. actions makes them equally guilty of any war crimes. An example of just how, either indiscriminate or grossly careless their methods for dealing with the insurgency are came April 25, when Mogadishu's S.O.S. children's hospital was struck in an Ethiopian mortar attack.

Some believe the pounding of civilian areas is a deliberate and determined effort to intimidate the families of those involved in the fighting. Whatever the reason, according to U.N. estimates the government/Ethiopian shelling of civilian homes and hospitals has seen an estimated 340, 000 people fleeing the capital and camping on the outskirts of Mogadishu—in areas recently racked by severe flooding after prolonged droughts. This has sparked fears of a cholera outbreak among the refugees with 40 confirmed cases as of mid-April, with that and other diseases killing 593 people.

The latest fighting ceased Apr. 27 after nine days of heavy fighting. There were yet more reports of dozens of bodies rotting in the streets with the fighting too intense to safely retrieve them. A situation that will only help outbreaks of disease spread like wildfire and with the situation on the ground too dangerous for any serious humanitarian efforts, the death toll could escalate rapidly.

The lull in fighting since Friday allowed the dead to be retrieved and a small contingent of aid workers into the capital with food, medical supplies and blankets for the refugees—altough some of the refugees have taken advantage of the calm and returned to their homes. The guns falling silent also brought claims by T.F.G. leader Abdullahi Yusuf that they had defeated the insurgents, but "western" diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity said that although the insurgents had been weakened and were lacking ammunition they had not been defeated. Most analysts predict that the trend will continue: the insurgents will lie low, regroup and re-emerge with a fresh, even more intense wave of attacks.

This fear can be seen in Ethiopia's latest way of dealing with the fighting. Reports by UNICEF and international reporters tell of Ethiopian and T.F.G. forces doing house to house searches and arresting dozens of men of fighting age—whether they are known combatants or not. Those reports went hand in hand with reports of a decentralized Gauntanamo in the horn of Africa, holding hundreds of young African males without charge or adequate legal representation—pending interrogation and possibly torture.

Article Author: Liam Bailey

Liam Bailey is a writer with SEO copywriting services company Write About Property

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