Will the Venezuelans ever be rid of this plague on their House?
In a move announced as aiming to bring citizens in line with the new morality of his “21st Century Socialism,” Venezuelan President-cum-Dictator Hugo Chávez announced a stringent set of new laws, highlighted by sharp tax increases for both liquor and cigarettes, during his “Aló Presidente” TV and radio show recently.…
Article comments
26 - REMF
"Seriously, how many times did you hear some dirty, unkempt commie, who probably had a "Che" poster above the bed in his dorm room, denounce anyone and everyone who had ever served in the US military as "criminal baby-killers" or something similar?"
And that's worse than mocking the appearance of a dismembered combat vet, or comparing being killed in combat to traffic fatalities...?
27 - Clavos
Actually, it wasn't too bad, for the most part.
The profs were far worse than the students, giving me a life-long low opinion of wooly-headed academic types.
I went to USF (yes, the #5 ranked football team, THAT USF), and having worked for a few years before being drafted, I was a few years older than most of the students, who for the most part treated me OK (and, as I said, I DIDN"T tell anyone about 'Nam--none of us did back then).
Also I lived off campus, first with two other vets, and later with my girl friend (Now my wife), so didn't have much dorm contact.
Some of the profs were real jewels, though. I had one hippy-dippy guy in Humanities(?!) who told us at the beginning of the quarter that we would be required to write one term paper on a work of art of our choice, turn it in at the end of the quarter, and that would be our entire grade for the course's three credits.
I asked what constituted a "work of art" for the purpose, and he replied any book, music, painting, sculpture, even a movie, but we had to tell him what we'd chosen and get it approved first.
This guy had a VERY broad definition of the term "work of art," so I decided to test his limits and asked if I could write a paper on the movie, "Easy Rider," in which Jack Nicholson and Dennis Hopper play a couple of hippie bikers.
Much to my astonishment, he accepted my idea. I wrote a paper basically postulating that ER was nothing more than a modern updating of the old Hope/Crosby "Road" movies, with the road trip serving as a metaphor for the road of life.
Pure BS, in other words.
Dude gave me an "A!"
As I said, weird times.
28 - Dave Nalle
Hell, when I was teaching I would have been predisposed to give you an 'A' for coming up with that premise. You don't realize how tiresome it is to see the same papers taking the same slant on the same subject semester after semester. Anything that breaks out of the expected patterns is such a relief that it gets a warm reception.
Dave
29 - Clavos
Well, thanks, Dave. He did write a note in the margin saying something about my "originality."
30 - bliffle
C & R,
Could you please take your circle-jerk to a private room.
31 - troll
it'll be interesting to see whether or not Chavez' short term tax policies have the 'desired effect' on inflationary trends
32 - troll
...is 10% annual growth a sign of a healthy economy - ?
33 - Dave Nalle
I think 10% inflation could be a sign of a healthy economy if it was coupled with high employment and a corresponding rise in the standard of living. That doesn't seem to be the case in Venezuela, plus as I understand it the inflation is closer to 18%.
Dave
34 - Clavos
"C & R,
Could you please take your circle-jerk to a private room."
Nope.
35 - Clavos
To exacerbate the inflation problem (this guy really hasn't got a clue about how to run an economy, but he's expert at demagoguery), he's proposing to constitutionally reduce the work day to 6 hours, with no reduction in wages and a full range of benefits.
That's the carrot constitutional change, one of several changes he's proposing, to be decided by vote on December 2. The headliner is his proposal to permit indefinite re-election for president, effectively allowing him to become that old totalitarian favorite, "president for life."
He's nothing if not clever politically. Unlike his mentor Castro, when people are tired of him 40 years from now, this guy will be able to say (semi truthfully), "But, you elected me. You approved perpetual re-election, back in '07. I'm only doing your bidding."
36 - Clavos
troll,
Venezuela’s macroeconomic climate is likely to remain highly unstable over the course of 2007. In our view, the government’s lack of coherent monetary and fiscal policies and a potential decline in international oil prices are the greatest threats to sustainable economic growth over the forecast period. The key problem is that the government is implementing little in the way of reform, despite the favourable conditions for change. Inflation still runs close to 20%, and import growth is spiralling as domestic production lags robust growth in demand. Private sector investment is badly needed to set the economy on a sustainable growth path, though increasing state intervention is preventing this from occurring."
According to this forecast (published in May, 2007), Venezuela's growth rate for 2007 will slow to 6.8%, while inflation will remain near 20%.
I tried to set up a link, but the URL contains a "banned word," so the BC software wouldn't publish this entire comment with the link included. the report is available at m a r k e t r e s e a r c hdotcom (that's the banned word!-take out spaces) and is titled "Venezuela Business Forecast Q3 2007." There's an onsite search engine available.
The forecast is a short abstract, the full report costs $495.00. There are some interesting points made, even in the abstract:
"
37 - Clavos
troll,
Sorry, I got so hung up in the banned word problem, I left out two other points I wanted to mention to you:
The above cited (sort of) forecast is apolitical; it's strictly an analysis of the Venezuelan economy, being sold as a guide to potential entrepreneurs/investors, and is only concerned with the businees climate from that POV.
Even if the growth rate were to continue at 10% plus (which, as Dave mentioned, all other conditions of the economy being stable, would be a good thing), it's entirely due to the high price of oil, which is not within Chavez's control.
The "success" of the Venezuelan economy as evidenced by the past few years' growth rate is deceptive; in addition to all the problems mentioned above, Venezuela is basically a one crop economy (oil), and that's not good, for obvious reasons.
38 - Clavos
Another foreign firm, South Africa-based Gold Fields, Ltd., owner of the Choco 10 gold mine in Bolivar state, abandons Venezuela's sinking economy before it's too late:
''Additional capital investment is required to realize the full potential of the Choco 10 gold mine,'' Gold Fields Chief Executive Ian Cockerill said in a statement. ``However, after careful consideration we have concluded that, given the current environment, this investment is better made by others, with Gold Fields retaining exposure to the upside inherent in the assets.'' (emphasis added)
And the middle class brain drain continues apace:
"Disagreement with the direction of Chávez's Venezuela runs at the core of many emigrants' experiences, though the catalyst for leaving differs.
"Chávez is not the threat; he's the consequence," says Antonio Guzman-Blanco, who relocated to Panama a year ago for political and practical reasons. "Fifty percent of the people believe in him ... They want the state to do everything and think it will miraculously improve their lives. I felt alienated from my own country."
But others say it's fear more than disillusionment that's driving the emigration.
"I think people leave the country because they're scared," says Raudo Diaz, who works in publicity in Caracas. "The opposition here also uses fear to stoke the political discourse." Mr. Diaz says only something as traumatic as the kidnapping of one of his children would force him to emigrate.
Many, including Mervin " a former Chavez supporter " are leaving precisely because of crime. Caracas is considered one of the most violent cities in Latin America. In surveys, Venezuelans say crime is a top concern.
"It's not just Caracas," says Mervin, who no longer drives the one hour to his small ranch because he fears getting kidnapped. "The government has done nothing to address security.
And the beat goes on.
39 - moonraven
The beat may goon, but clavos STILL HAS PROVIDED NO PROOF THAT CHAVEZ IS A DICTATOR.
And RJ now thinks that 2007 is over--despite the fact that this bird sees that today is only October 15th.
Today being October 15th means that the growth in the PIB for 2007 has NOT been calculated yet.
However, what I referred to in my comment--which was an average growth of more than 10% per annum in 2004, 2005 and 2006 HAS been calculates.
Venezuela May or May NOt have a growth of more than 10% for THIS year. I do not know, and more to the point some whiny-ass undergraduate C student does NOT KNOW, either.
Venezuela only estimated SIX PERCENT for this year when it made its budget. Experts are preducted 8 to 9% based on growth through the THIRD quarter (which I believe means through the end of September 2007).
Any other really stupid blunders you [Gratuitous vulgarity deleted by Comments Editor] would like to make today?
Really pathetic, since not a single one of you has ever even been to Venezuela!
I am the only person on this site who has spent timein Venezuela [Gratuitous vulgarity deleted by Comments Editor].
40 - moonraven
Many Mexicans are crossing the border to the US because of the widespread crime here in Mexico.
THAT crime doesn't seem to worry any of you Alfred E. Newmans, but the crime in a country that is not on your borders and which you have never visited--and in the case of Dave Nalle, a country that you don't even know which continent its on--seems to really get your droopy drawers in a painful wedgie.
WHY?
What's it to you?
41 - brian
Clavos...try to get it thru your thick skull...and stop doing your Goebells routine: President Hugo Chavez is the legitimately elected leader of Venezuela.You may not like it, but the mass of Venezuelans have made their rightful choice..I suggest you stay inside your own benighted country (the US) and deal with your real problem: anm unelected mass murderer (Bush)in office. serving the interests of a racist state: israel , and who has killed > 1 million people.
42 - Clavos
Brian,
Try to get it through your thick skull: Unless you come up with facts that prove El Chango de Chavez is NOT steadily and systematically eroding the people's rights while simultaneously exporting the people's treasure to other despots like Fidel Castro and Evo Morales, it doesn't matter that he was "legitimately elected," especially when there is considerable evidence and testimony by eyewitnesses that electors were intimdated at the polls in those "elections."
But, regardless, his behavior since being elected is unquestionably despotic and ruinous for the country.
Oh, and I'm not interested in your suggestions as to what I should do.
43 - brian
Clvos, your skull is indeed very thick...YOU have to prove president Chavez is eroding rights.... Othewise its more of your antivenezueland lies.
'it doesn't matter that he was "legitimately elected," '
oh yes it does,and he was, much to your chagrin....The mass of people chose Chavez and his party...youd better learn to live with it.
Clavos:'his behavior since being elected is unquestionably despotic and ruinous for the country. '
No, theres no sign of despotism. But you wish there was....The real despots are the bunch of thugs who now are out of power, thank god.
44 - Clavos
"oh yes it does,and he was..."
Read this.
And this (from Harvard, no less!)
And here.
I can only post three links per comment. I found lots of others, all noting the uncertainty of the legitimacy of the "Chavez elections."
"No, theres no sign of despotism"
Um, let's see:
Concentrating all power into his own hands.
Refusing to renew an opposition media license.
Seizing private property and threatening to seize more for retaliatory reasons.
Suppressing dissent, both on the part of journalists and students.
And on and on.
Yep. He's democratic, all right.
45 - Dave Nalle
If democratic means absolutely nothing except for counting votes, then Chavez is certainly democratic.
But as we've seen time and again in history, just voting on things doesn't make a government any less oppressive.
It all takes me back to Jefferson who said " Bear in mind this sacred principle, that though the will of the majority is in all cases to prevail, that will to be rightful must be reasonable; that the minority possess their equal rights, which equal law must protect, and to violate would be oppression."
That's the perfect expression of the limitations of democracy and of why democracy alone is NOT enough to base a society on.
Chavez has not failed as a democrat, he's failed as a steward for the rights of his people.
Dave
46 - Clavos
According to this Houston Chronicle article, corruption in the chavista regime has resulted in a sharp increase in the quantity of drugs transiting through Venezuela and bound for the US and Europe:
"Now, however, the volume of cocaine trafficked through Venezuela has risen sharply. Shipments have increased significantly, with suspected northbound drug flights out of the country increasing threefold from 2003 to 2006, according to American radar tracking.
Counter-drug officials say up to 220 tons of cocaine " a third of what Colombia produces " now pass through Venezuela, double the figure in the 1990s. Most of it is bound for the United States and burgeoning markets in Spain, Britain and Italy.
The traffickers have operated with illegally obtained Venezuelan identification cards from agencies as varied as the National Guard, the DISIP intelligence agency and even the economy ministry, all while living in some of the finest neighborhoods in the Venezuelan capital, according to authorities in Bogota, the Colombian capital, and in Caracas."
One wonders if the motivation is simply corruption, as the article says, or a deliberate (and far more sinister) attempt on the part of the chavista regime to further undermine the relationship between the US and Colombia in their ongoing joint efforts to fight the drug cartels, and advance Chavez's plan for Venezuelan hegemony over the region.
47 - Dave Nalle
That's an interesting theory, Clavos. I think it'e entirely possible that Chavez has picked up some ideas from the Taliban and other groups which use drug sales to finance terrorism. If he is indeed comparing notes with them, I'd expect his next move to be to begin to finance revolutionary movements outside of his own territory more aggressivley. We already know he has a relationship with the FARC terrorists, and that seems like a logical route for him to follow. As a small but ideologically extreme and repressive state investing in a terror network is a very cost-effective way to exert greater international influence than you would be able to just based on your size and resources.
Dave
48 - Clavos
Not only do I think, as you do, Dave, that he's picked up ideas from the Taliban, I also think he is actively subverting neighboring countries by supporting opposition forces wherever they exist.
That, in my opinion, is one of the principal reasons why he's buying all those Russian weapons, and why he wants their arms factories in Venezuela.