Not since 2003 has the U.S. military engaged in such a high level of buildup and readiness in the Persian Gulf. Could this be an indication that America is planning to attack Iran?
A top Russian security source thinks so. He claims the U.S. has built up forces at the border and they are becoming much more "active", stating that the U.S. is planning both air and ground attacks against Iran.
Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov of Moscow's Academy of Geopolitical Sciences said that the U.S. is planning a large scale air strike on Iran's military infrastructure shortly. The USS John C. Stennis, accompanied by eight support ships and four nuclear submarines, is heading for the Gulf. The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been there with similar support for over three months. The U.S. is also sending Patriot anti-missile systems to the Persian Gulf region.
The United Arab Emirates have stated that they will not allow their territory to be used in any assault or reconnaissance against Iran, while recently urging the West to continue using a "diplomatic" approach to the growing threat from Iran.
Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told the West recently that it would "respond" to any further pressure connected to its nuclear development, and reiterated the claim that Iranian nuclear development is strictly for "peaceful" purposes. "We have acted according to international norms [in the nuclear sphere] until recently, but if they [the West] take illegal measures, we will have a commensurate response," Khamenei said.
Meanwhile, the UN Security Council is drafting a new resolution incorporating more sanctions against Iran because it refuses to abide by previous resolutions.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Matt,
I went to Debkafiles to check out what the backdoor Mossad boys had to say. mentioned a 6 April strike date in the headline. The English site did not. But it was mentioned in the first paragraph or so...
I suggest that things are a tad more complex than they look, but it is very clear that the American battle groups are not there for a view of the Persian Gulf...
If Russian intelligence is right (a big if), then Tel Aviv and Haifa should be getting hit with missiles before PessaH ends... Those "poor Palestinians" in Gaza already have the capability to knock out the massive generators of Israel Electric in Ashkelon.
Should be a very interesting holiday. If I'm knocked off-line, then you'll know that my power comes from Ashkelon...
2 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
I guess the link for the Hebrew site of Debkafiles didn't get through the first time. Do you read Hebrew, Matt?
3 - Matt
Ruvy, God speed to you.
I have an e-friend that lives in Israel (name's Iskandar), and in the last battle with Hezbollah, he had rockets land within ~10 meters of his house. How unlucky do you have to be to have one of those rockets come that close to you?
I spend a bit of time on Debka, they're usually on top of things there. I don't read Hebrew, nor do I have a translator. How much different is the English site compared to the Hebrew site?
Matt
4 - Matt
Looks like a couple hours ago, AP released this, stating if the Brits do anything about the hostages, they may not release the woman.
We will soon see how much fortitude the Brits have left.
5 - Dave Nalle
They already declared they wouldn't release the woman hostage because the Brits weren't being cooperative enough.
As for a US attack on Iran, I'm not sure we're looking at an actual invasion. We might be talking about massive infrastructure bombing.
Dave
6 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Matt,
Thank you for the kind regards. The Hebrew sites of any Israeli media usually have details in there that the Israelis do not want English speakers to know about. If you subscribe to IMRA, published by Dr. Aaron Lerner, you will often see where Ha'aretz purposely deletes items from its English editions. The Hebrew press and media is very biased in its coverage, for the most part, and it takes rocket therapy to knock a sense of reality into it.
As for your friend here, count the small blessings. At the time, HizbAllah had nail filled rockets. If one landed a few meters from his house, it did not damage anything but what it landed on. Missiles, with guidance systems and serious explosives are a whole different kettle of fish.
With G-d's help, we'll get through all this. But nobody has launched anything yet, and brinksmanship is normal for this part of the world.
I commend you to the Book of Daniel [11:40-41]. It's words are appropriate to this situation.
7 - Kij
Matt - your last paragraph:
"Meanwhile, the UN Security Council is drafting a new resolution incorporating more sanctions against Iraq because it refuses to abide by previous resolutions."
Iraq? I know, habit, 2003 all over again and everything... but unless you're being ironic, let's be sure of that last letter of the nation's name.
8 - Matt
Crap. Nice catch, Kij. Typo. I'll try to get it changed to Iran. Thanks.
9 - moonraven
I can tell you a bit of on the ground information, as I was in Bahrain until December 23--where the US fleet is based in the Persian Gulf (three blocks from where I was living).
The first week in December the base's personnel doubled. It was not because the Navy folks all wanted to take Christmas vacations in Bahrain.
I decided to leave, as Bahrain is a series of islands joined by bridges--and with a long bridge to Saudi which if I remember correctly was largely paid for by the Sausdis so they could close it under crisis situations.
Choosing Good Friday for a nuclear strike sounds very fundamentalist to me....
10 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
This story from the Pakistan Daily Times, quoted from When Your Friends Desert You may give a good idea as to why the Americans are planning an attack, if indeed they are. A massive move away from the dollar could bankrupt the banking and oil elites who run the States.
11 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Marthe,
I believe I remember you mentioning that you were soon off to this neck of the woods on a consulting contract. I would suggest to you that you be very careful. This may not be the nicest place to be if real hostilities break out. I know this will sound ironic to you, but in the event of a major war, the safest place a person probably could be is here in Judea and Samaria - where I am.
This part of the world abounds in irony...
12 - Dave Nalle
Ruvy, Iran is already selling its oil in Euros and I don't see evidence of anyone else joining them any time soon.
dave
13 - MBD
"As for a US attack on Iran, I'm not sure we're looking at an actual invasion. We might be talking about massive infrastructure bombing."
O.K.
Bring it on.
What then?
14 - Matt
Personally, I doubt we (the USA) will be the first to go in, unless directly attacked by Iran. They've already indirectly attacked us several times, but I guess we're simply ignoring that in the name of political correctness.
I doubt the Brits have the balls to go in to get their people back. If it were me, I'd have some special forces in there to get them out without any full scale invasion and without any large scale bombing. Just in to get them and back out again.
Notice how Israel hasn't had any hostages taken lately? Even though they still haven't got the two back which caused the bombing of half of Lebanon, they clearly sent a message that if you're going to take hostages, you're going to get the crap bombed out of you. I'm thinking Iran is just as afraid of Israel as the Brits are afraid of Iran.
But that's just my opinion.
15 - steve
...just another conspiracy theory pissing in the wind to create fear of further world war against islamo-fascism. what do the russians know anyways? they are in bed w/ Iran
16 - moonraven
Ruvy,
Thanks.
I am not going to go back to Bahrain until this situation is resolved. I am telling friends (expats anyway) there to go back to home countries.
I will be doing consulting gigs in Latin America until fall--but then may well go to Lebanon for one.
17 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Marthe,
On another thread, my own article, I believe, we discussed the Hopi and Mayan Long Cycle - you called it by a different name - and I mentioned to you about campfires in the States with Indians in various tribes predicting disaster. That is more your culture than mine, and you understand it far far better than I ever will.
I suggest that you check some of this stuff out even if your inclination is not to believe in it. But, whatever you do, try not to go to the States yourself if you can avoid it. Try and do it indirectly. Prophecy is the kind of thing that gets spread around, and there is no reason that American Indians shouldn't be given some idea of what is going on by the Divine Spirit.
18 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Matt,
"Notice how Israel hasn't had any hostages taken lately?"
I suggest that you not look at Israel as a monolithic entity. It is as realistic as looking at the United States or Iran as a monolithic entity.
Just a thought.
19 - Matt
Ruvy, I absolutely do not see them as monolithic.
I've seen Israel bend (very easily at times) to the will of these thugs. It saddens me.
What they did with Hezbollah really stands out in my eyes and in a deep, dark way I applaud them for it.
Again, I doubt they'll have to worry about hostages being taken for a while. Or at least I hope.
20 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Matt,
Monolithic does not mean unbending. It means "all as one". What I wish to get clear to you is that there are several competing visions for what Israel should be and those visions not only do not coincide but are on a collision course. The crash is due rather soon...
21 - Arch Conservative
"As for a US attack on Iran, I'm not sure we're looking at an actual invasion. We might be talking about massive infrastructure bombing."
O.K.
Bring it on.
What then?"
Massive infrastructure bombing in Saudi Arabia?
22 - moonraven
Ruvy,
Actually I may have to go up to the States in about 3 weeks for a Navajo healing ceremony that is part of the Radical Forgiveness program.
At this point, the US will either attack Iran--on Good Friday or another date--or they won't.
I have to go back to Gramsci's advice: Proceed with pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will.
23 - ScooterClavos
Bush doesn't have anyone to send to Iran since he's busied the US Army acting as targets of opportunity for insurgents in Iraq. But he's got to create a crisis in the minds of US citizens and congressmen so they'll give him more authority, money and troops. Then he can deploy that bounty to Iraq while saying it's for Iran. Just like the Afghanistan to Iraq bankshot. Well, it worked before, so why not use that ploy again?
24 - MBD
"Massive infrastructure bombing in Saudi Arabia?"
O.K.
Bring it on.
What then?
25 - STM
Matt: said: "I doubt the Brits have the balls to go in to get their people back."
Then you really don't know much about the Brits ... they have carried out plenty of hostage rescue missions in the past. They have the benchmark special forces unit ... the one that others measure themselves against, including Delta Force, which modelled itself on the SAS after its founder, Charlie Beckwith, spent time with the Brits on an exchange program.
The last rescue I can think of was a few years back when some members of the Royal Irish on UN duty were taken hostage in Sierra Leone and were rescued by the SAS and the Parachute Regiment.
Then there was the Iranian embassy siege in London, also the SAS ... beamed live to a worldwide audience as they stormed the building. Remember that? Oh, and the massive task force sent to liberate the Falklands Islands in 1982. You must remember that.
If they have to mount a rescue mission they will, but I suspect they'll prefer not to set off a major conflict. The last time it happened, the Iranians released the sailors pretty quickly. But if they have to, they will - don't doubt it and don't undersestimate their ability or their resolve.
As for the rest of this, the US won't be attacking Iran any time soon. No one is that stupid, even the dopes giving advice to the President in this whole sorry mess.