Mitt Romney? He looks good on TV, but Americans are not ready to elect a Mormon. No way, no how.
I suspect that the Republican nominee will be either Newt Gingrich or Mike Huckabee. And hardly anyone is wild about either of them. The greatest advantage that they have over Obama is that they’re white, which brings me to the second reason why time is on Obama’s side.
The people in the commentariat talk about voter anger, but they give it the usual, obvious interpretation, namely that people are mad about losing their homes and being unemployed. Well, yes, they are, but those serious, real issues don’t make the Tea Partiers mad. There’s one issue that animates the Tea Partiers and many Republicans in general, and it’s the Issue That Dares Not Speak Its Name. Republicans, so many of whom are white and middle-aged, are mad because they’re losing their privileged place in society, as America becomes more and more diverse every day.
To use an image from the Bible, the Republicans have built their house on sand. They have no chance at the African-American vote when Obama is running, and they have alienated the Hispanic vote with their stand on immigration, which remains a divisive issue within the Republican Party. The big bomb has yet to blow up, but blow up it will. This is going to be the result of the Republican attack on Social Security. I cannot imagine a better way to alienate senior citizens than to threaten Social Security.
So here’s what it comes to: Whatever Republican candidate survives a vicious primary season will have to rally a badly divided party and face an electorate that his party has alienated. Does that sound like a winning campaign strategy to you?