It’s comical to watch the financial channels’ pundits and Obama Administration officials, almost on a daily basis, tell us that we are well into an economic recovery. Yes, there have been times when the economic data looked promising. During some weeks first time unemployment claims have been down. The economy has grown between two and three percent some months. And there have even been some months when new home sales have swelled and the prices of houses in general have increased. But the fact of the matter is that the worst of the crisis is yet to come and of course like the initial crisis which has lasted for close to three years already it will be Washington’s fault.
So, what are the indications that we are not well into an economic recovery and the worst of the economic pain is yet to come? For one thing, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the government’s official judge of economic expansion and contraction, has not pronounced the recession that began in 2007 to be over. Additionally, just yesterday the government announced the economy lost 125,000 jobs last month. The real unemployment rate which takes into account discouraged and underemployed workers is still north of 16 percent Food stampusage has skyrocketed to a record high of 40.2 million recipients. Bank repossessions are still a massive problem. They hit a record 93,777 in May which represented a 44 percent increase over May of the previous year. Worst yet, all 50 states are experiencing year-over-year increases. Banks still aren’t lending; consumers aren’t spending; and the national deficit and debt is in outer space with nothing good to show for it.
In all fairness, as mentioned above, there has been some good economic news from time to time. For instance, housing prices did increase in April. But most analysts attribute the rise to the rush to take advantage of the government tax credit for homebuyers which expired at the end of that month. Since the tax credit expired almost all housing market barometers have dropped significantly.
Then there were those months that jobs were produced. But, again, this had more to do with government gimmicks - 2010 census hiring and government spending then real economic progress.
To be sure, some Americans are doing quite well in this recession and this might account for the president’s insistence that the recession is over and prosperity is just around the corner. Who is doing well? Well, folks that live close to Washington and Wall Street are doing very well. Forbes Magazine has reported that 12 of the 25 riches counties in the country border the nation’s capital and financial headquarters. It’s no wonder since government workers receive 45 percent more in pay and benefits than their private sector counterparts. This is pretty good when you consider that it’s almost impossible to lose a government job even in economic recessions. Of course, given the huge taxpayer bailouts to Wall Street bankers and the generous Federal Reserve policies towards the same it is also easy to see why suburban New York City is riding high in these tough times.