I was making my rounds through the blogsphere this morning and happened upon an article over at Daily Kos indicating it is the will of the American people to have troops withdrawn by the Fall of 2008. The author, intending to shift blame for the inevitable veto of the war spending bill squarely onto Bush's shoulders cites Gallop polls to show the bill, which narrowly passed through Congress, has the support of the American people.
The problem with citing these Gallup polls however, is that if one reads into these polls they give a clear indication as to why they can not, and should not be trusted. By examining the USA Today Gallup poll several problems emerge. In order to examine these problems which arise from the poll, we must first ignore 2 important facts
The reason it is important to ignore these facts, although I believe they do carry some weight in the outcome of the polls, is because these are facts which we cannot change. It is the unfortunate outcome of randomized polling. The answers which need to be analyzed are the ones which give an indication as to the knowledge of those polled.1. The poll was only the opinion of 1007 adults (not necessarily 1007 voters)
2. 429 of those polled described themselves as leaning Republican while 493 described themselves as leaning Democrat (indicating a 7% bias towards the Democrats).
For example, when asked "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi", 19% stated they have never heard of her. Likewise when asked about Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, 18% replied they never heard of him. Most amazing however is that 8% have never even heard of John Edwards!
The above numbers tell me that almost 1 in 5 individuals polled by USA today have little or no knowledge of American politics. Can we expect our President to dictate foreign policy based on the opinion of someone who has never heard of Nancy Pelosi?
Article comments
1 - Lee Richards
Opinion polls are like petitions: a lot of people will thoughtlessly agree with something, when they really have no idea what they're supporting.
The Constitution does make the president the commander-in-chief, but it sure doesn't guarantee that he/she will be COMPETENT. Bush has demonstrated that not only isn't he a good CIC, but that he's too stubborn or stupid or both to seek advice and counsel of those more experienced and knowledgeable(such as Senator John Warner).
2 - Zedd
Signorile
Lee: The Constitution does make the president the commander-in-chief, but it sure doesn't guarantee that he/she will be COMPETENT.
The Constitution also does not guarantee that the electorate be highly informed.
The general public is ignorant about most matters of importance, especially in politics. This sample group represents the American public. Knowing who Pelosi is, is neither here or there when it comes to wanting your daughter or cousin to come back home alive and soon from Iraq.
Also, you cant have it all ways. Because you don't like the results of the polls regarding the pull out you scrutinize the validity or significance of the results, then you end your piece by quoting poll results that make your argument.... Sort of weakens your entire article.
Also do a mini study on sample taking. You'd be surprise just how reflective polls are of the views of the general population.
3 - Charles
Zedd, The closing sentence regarding the gallup poll was meant as sarcasm, sorry you couldnt pick up on that.
And Lee,
As for as Bush seeking advice of someone more knowledgable, I would much prefer it was a General or commander on the ground in Iraq than any Senator
4 - Sisyphus
"The poll was only the opinion of 1007 adults (not necessarily 1007 voters)"
A person's opinion don't matter unless he or she is a voter? I'm not so sure about that. Nowhere in the Constitution does it say that non-voters enjoy fewer rights than voters, including the right to an opinion. There are a lot of reasons to not vote apart from apathy.
Otherwise, I share many of your concerns about opinion polls. Of course, polls can be useful providing you look at all the data and not just extrapolated headlines.
5 - Lee Richards
#3: Charles, Do you seriously think that any general or commander in Iraq who wants to remain a general or commander is going to tell Bush anything he doesn't want to hear?
6 - Dave Nalle
Polls like this remind me why it's such a good thing that we're governed as a federal republic and not by direct democracy.
Dave