ABC News' political blog "The Note" has some provocative thoughts today governing politics and the media over the next six weeks or so:
- Since there's that whole Labor-Day-kick-off thing, and it's the beginning of a very big month, let's clear the air with a very big a-hem of reality: the three biggest figures in American politics for the next five weeks will be George W. Bush, Howard Dean, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
....no matter what happens in war and peace and prosperity (and The Note will do its level best to cover those things as they intersect with politics), our Big Three are going to be the Boys of September and into October, after which, we bet the political world looks so different we will all be recalibrating.
Bush, because he's the commander-in-chief, because he's wrestling with the changing politics of Iraq, and because he has that budget deficit to deal with as he looks to get Congress moving on a legislative agenda headed by energy and Medicare.
Oh, and also he is the best political fundraiser of all time.
Dean because he is likely to raise twice as much (and maybe three times as much!) as any Democrat in the third quarter - which we'll know come mid-October, and that will be a political earthquake.
The Note is a big believer in the nearly iron-clad rule of modern American politics: the person who raises the most money in the year before the voting always wins the nomination (and Howard Dean will be that man).
....And Arnold Schwarzenegger matters lots because from Mary Hart to Peter Hart, he is an irresistible story.
For the next five weeks, we will struggle every day: do we lead with recall or do we lead with presidential politics?
Today, with John Kerry's announcement, let's go with the latter, and why should we be any different than the rest of the political herd: let's lead our Kerry coverage with thoughts about … . Howard Dean.
Article comments
1 - Steve Rhodes
The same thing happened in 91.
Clinton got the early money, far more endorsements than Dean and better press. I remember interviewing Susan Estrich who said Clinton won the early money/press primary before the first vote was cast.
He did stumble because of increasing press scrutiny and didn't win New Hampshire, but that allowed him to dub himself the comeback kid.
I think things have changed enough so that even though Dean has the most money, he still will have to face the voters. And a lot can happen between now and Feb.
2 - Eric Olsen
A lot can happen is right - I wish when the press makes a prediction like this they would be more careful to say "a lot can happen" and not give the impression of inevitability, even implying the inevitability is somehow tied to their prediction. Talk about hubris.
3 - Jack Tanner
It's not as if Dean is running against stiff competition. Competition of stiffs maybe. Primary voting Democrats want someone from outside the Beltway who isn't somnambulent and voted against the war. That leaves.......Dean.
4 - Eric Olsen
And he could very well be the winner - my point was that "The Note" took it upon itself to declare him the winner on 9/1/03, largely because the press has responded well to him, and by their thinking, the people will follow. They didn't say "we think this might happen because ..." They said "this WILL happen." Why? Because they say so.
5 - JR
Empiricism and causality are out of fashion. It's all about assertion these days.
6 - NohoMissives
I find the final analysis laughable. The media and money have always picked the nominees before anything even started. This time, realizing this, I decided to pick a candidate before they did and work my ass off for him. I gave money, maintained websites, got others to give money, did a small web related project for the campaign, met with people in my neighborhood, flyered, tabled, introduced all of my friends and contacts to Dean's website, etc, etc, etc.
Howard Dean is the antithesis of the media and big money backed candidate -- he is proof that dedicated citizens can beat the system.
I strongly urge everyone to do this in each political cycle. Figure out for yourself who you like, don't depend on the media to tell you, beat them to the punch and be prepared to do a little work.
7 - Murphy
Get yer Dean People Suck merchandise right here!
http://www.cafeshops.com/deanpeoplesuck.7402921
8 - Eric Olsen
NoHo: which "final analysis" is laughable?
Murphy: why do Dean People Suck?
9 - Steve Rhodes
Here's an example of some of the coverage Dean is getting.
Dean Invites More Scrutiny By Switching Key Stances - Washington Post
10 - NohoMissives
> NoHo: which "final analysis" is laughable?
"election system has been subverted by money and the media"
Always has been, nothing new. This time Dean supporters beat them to the punch and used the fact that early momentum is treated as important by the media. I joined up early with this in mind. I wanted to influence the outcome *before* media and money decided. Tens of thousands of other people agreed and sent in early money and early help.