In the endless fluidity of the 2012 stable of potential presidential hopefuls ("Will Sarah Palin run? Has Newt Gingrich cratered?"), there has been one solid: Mitt Romney.
After losing the 2008 GOP nomination to John McCain, the former Massachusetts governor never really stopped running. Romney picked up right where he left off once Barack Obama moved into the White House.
He is set to officially announce his candidacy for 2012 on Thursday, and he could well become Obama's worst nightmare — if only he wins his party nomination.
And there, Romney finds himself in an odd situation. He apparently is both the front-runner and, simultaneously, something of a second choice for many Republicans.
Romney clearly is the establishment candidate, evidenced by the fact that he collected more than $10 million in just one day of fundraising in Las Vegas.
Yet the fact that that Romney is leading the pack, according to one recent poll, with support from just 14 percent of his party indicates just how tenuous his leadership is right now.
The fact that in that same poll, a quarter of the GOP primary electorate isn't even sure who they would vote for as their nominee tells me that Republicans aren't exactly in love with Romney.
If Romney can sufficiently and effectively distance himself from the fact that his state healthcare reform in Massachusetts became the model for President Obama's own national reform law, then he has a real shot to come away with the nomination.
The other reason Christian conservatives are said to dislike Romney is due to his Mormon faith. Romney can't, nor should he, run away from his Mormonism. Unlike healthcare reform, or other substantive policy position, Romney's religion is not a legitimate reason to oppose him. If Romney continues to push back against this bias as necessary, he well could neutralize it, at least enough to secure the nomination.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Steve
All the other candidates for 2011 are only capable of highlighting current problems. Mitt is the only one in the pack offering real solutions. He's got my vote.
2 - Glenn Contrarian
And what 'solutions' has he offered? I'd really like to hear.
But no, Romney doesn't make me worried at all. IMO the only candidate that might stand a ghost of a chance is Romney's fellow Mormon, Jon Huntsman...
...but thanks to Rand Paul and the Great Anti-Medicare Lemming Race this year, though nothing is ever certain and we still have to work hard to get President Obama elected, I'm still not too worried.
3 - Baronius
"The other reason Christian conservatives are said to dislike Romney is due to his Mormon faith."
Scott, I don't know where you got that. Evangelicals' problem with Romney is that they don't trust him on abortion.
4 - Leroy
The hard right crazies will probably undermine Romney in 2012 as they did McCain in 2008. They've found intransigence works against wimpy dem politicians but it doesn't work against voters.
5 - Cannonshop
#4 When the choice is between a phoney conservative and a genuine, open-about-it left-liberal, voters will tend to vote for the guy who is what he says he is, rather than the guy who's pretending to be what his record says he's not.
As for Romney, now... there should probably be some close examinations of his record as Mass. Governor, not just his campaign rhetoric. If the record lines up with the rhetoric, he's going to be a serious threat to Team Obama, but if it doesn't, then his nomination will be a sign the GOP doesn't think it can win this-just as McCain's nomination in 2008, or Dole in 2006.
6 - Arch Conservative
It's the economy stupid.
Unemployment is still very high and according to most polls people think the economy is still in the shitter. If that doesn't change by early to mid 2010, all the Obama koolaid in the world is going to save the "one we have been waiting for" from his destiny as a one termed failed president.
7 - Leroy
Romney will have to pass the republican 'purity' test first, and even if he passes he'll probably be undermined by lukewarm support from the tea party hardliners.
8 - mike
Rommy is the poster boy for,whats wrong with this great country!!!SameO SameO ;-(
Lets see, he went to Harvard, nuff said!
Ron Paul!!! 2012...Don't Fear Freedom!!!!
Please check this cat out!!!! Dr. Paul!!!
I Want my country back!!!!! Damm it!!!
9 - Baronius
But Leroy, won't the white-wing Republicans rally around him just so he can beat a black guy? I thought you said that race was more important to these people than ideology.
10 - Leroy
Good point, Baronius. The teaparty visceral reaction may over-rule their newfound ideology fixation.
11 - Baronius
I hope that last comment was facetious, Leroy. I was pointing out how wrong you are when you reduce politics to race, and since you recognize that ideology prevented the right from coalescing around McCain, you realize that your race theory doesn't correctly explain the actions of voters. This is the David Mamet conundrum: why claim to hold a view when you recognize that it doesn't work in practice?
12 - Glenn Contrarian
Baronius -
1 - Evangelicals ALSO don't like him because of his Mormonism. Remember, to many people, one's religion is far more important than one's politics.
2 - Politics should not be 'reduced' to race...but it is naive to think that it doesn't play a significant part...and the proof lay in the fact that Democratic rallies are generally quite mixed, racially and culturally, whereas Republican rallies are almost completely lily-white and non-any-religion-other-than-'Christian'. And usually homophobic, too.
13 - Baronius
Glenn, you can look at a crowd and tell what percentage is Christian? You're projecting so much that you're not even making sense.
14 - Glenn Contrarian
Baronius -
Get real. What do you really think would be the chances of, say, a Muslim being elected by Republicans? REAL close to zero, I think you must agree...but there is a Muslim in Congress - he's a Democrat, of course.
Are there any avowed atheists that Republicans would elect? Perhaps, but unlikely. What, Baronius, do you think would happen to a Republican candidate who came out and said that he doesn't believe in God at all? And how many out-in-the-open homosexuals have the Republicans elected to office? Especially since there's the "don't-say-gay" bill that just passed in Tennessee....
But they're really eager to vote for those who say, "God told me to run for [list office here]!" - see Palin, Bachmann, George W. Bush, Huckabee...need I go on?
You can deny it all you want, but racism DOES play a significant role in Republican politics (remember "Barack the Magic Negro"), religion DOES play a significant role in Republican politics, and homophobia DOES play a significant role in Republican politics...and hiding your head in the sand and pretending otherwise will not make it go away.
15 - Clavos
...but there is a Muslim in Congress - he's a Democrat, of course.
Worse than that, he's from flyover country.
16 - Cannonshop
#14 Actually, Glenn, Racism is the glue that holds the Democrat Party together-fear of it, obsession with it,and most importantly, the ability to accuse their enemies OF it.
That last bit's critical, and why you folks make the ground-assumptions you do. It's not Republicans that called Tony Snow "an Uncle Tom", The fact is, Black republicans aren't welcome to caucus with the Congressional Black Caucus.
Your demons are in your own mind, please stop projecting them on other people.
17 - El Bicho
"It's not Republicans that called Tony Snow 'an Uncle Tom'"
Who called former Bush Press Secretary, the late Tony Snow, "an Uncle Tom"? Seems an odd insult to hurl at a white man
18 - El Bicho
"ideology prevented the right from coalescing around McCain"
If that's the case, it's odd that Rove would have attempted to trick South Carolina voters into thinking McCain had an illegitimate black child. Should have stuck to policies and voting record
19 - zingzing
"Racism is the glue that holds the Democrat Party together-fear of it, obsession with it,and most importantly, the ability to accuse their enemies OF it."
easy to say. that's a double-edged sword. think about how racism affects you, sir. the republicans are just as guilty of playing the race card, but they hold themselves in some esteem while doing so. i'm not saying the dems get off, i'm just saying you should look in the mirror if you want to play that. because that's all you're doing, time and time again.
20 - Leroy
11-Baronius: that was pretty complicated and I didn't get it. I'm not very good at decoding irony.
21 - Leroy
16-Cannonshop: Wow! Do you think there are and have been so few black republicans in congress because they believe that the Congressional Black Caucus might slight them? Yet this cycle the CBC invited both elected republican blacks to join CBC and one accepted. Of course, he's the only black republican because republicans almost never elect black congressmen. In fact only about 3 in the last 50 years. If that doesn't scream out "Racism!" I can't imagine what it would take.
22 - Clavos
If that doesn't scream out "Racism!" I can't imagine what it would take.
Is it really racism? Or is it the fact that VERY few Black people are conservative, and choose not to join the Republican party for that reason?
Not everything is motivated by racism, Leroy, not even in the minds of card-carrying racists.
23 - Leroy
It's racism, Clavos. I've known many black conservatives and republicans who have built successful companies and community organizations and been professionals. They would like to join the party but there seems to be no room for them. Cf. JC Watts.
There's no shortage of qualified black conservatives.
24 - zingzing
well, clavos... many black people are profoundly conservative. they just don't vote for republicans all that often. maybe they view the gop as racist. maybe their brand of conservatism doesn't preclude them from voting for a dem if they agree on other issues. maybe they just don't vote. i dunno. hard to say. it's different for everybody.
the political lines we draw here on bc and the political lines we see in the press don't really reflect the country at large. many people don't see those lines, or they ignore them. it's only the stubborn, the (political) junkies and the ideologues that really do. i'm stubborn. you can't convince me otherwise.
25 - Clavos
There's no shortage of qualified black conservatives.
Sorry, Leroy, but your personal acquaintances don't constitute an accurate sampling.
The Berkeley Daily Planet, an award-winning politically progressive newspaper in that city, recently conducted a survey:
New research done by the Bay Area Center for Voting Research (BACVR) reveals who the real liberals in American are and the answer is not the tree-hugging, ponytail wearing ex-hippies you might expect. Instead, the new face of American liberalism is of a decidedly different hue. The nation’s remaining liberals are overwhelming African Americans.
The BACVR study that ranks the political ideology of every major city in the country shows that cities with large black populations dominate the list of liberal communities. The research finds that Detroit is the most liberal city in the United States and has one of the highest concentrations of African American residents of any major city. Over 81 percent of the population in Detroit is African American, compared to the national average of 12.3 percent. In fact, the average percentage of African American residents in the 25 most liberal cities in the country is 40.3 percent, more than three times the national rate.
Blacks are significantly majority liberal, and they vote that way. There's a good reason for that: the Democrats have been courting them and aiming their policies and platforms at them for years.