And here's the good news: the 1918 H1N1 influenza came in two phases. The spring phase, like this one, was serious and widespread, but it really wasn't that big of a deal. In the fall, however, the virus mutated and brought about that "deadliest four months in human history." Chances are the virus will not mutate as it did in 1918. I repeat: chances are the virus will not mutate as it did in 1918! However, we still need to be alert to that possibility.
But that's not the best news. What is the best news (yes, I'm a glass-half-full liberal!) is that if we are infected with this springtime swine flu, we stand a far better chance against it if it mutates and returns this fall; that's what happened in 1918: those who came down with the swine flu in the spring were much more resistant to the flu that returned in the fall.
But I'm not telling you to go get exposed. Don't do that! Chances are we'll all get exposed anyway. Just make sure you know the symptoms and how to respond, and how bad it can get.
One more note: I don't think it's paranoid to be prepared, because society and all our services could break down temporarily until this virus runs its course. Today I'm going to the Commissary and get a few hundred dollars' worth of groceries, particularly those with a long shelf life.
Article comments
1 - Clavos
I'm just curious, Glenn, since you're giving medical advice to strangers here, as to what your medical qualifications and/or credentials/licenses are?
2 - Dan
When this hysteria blows over, unsubstantiated, will we begin to question the judgement of the alarmists?
Hysteria terrorists should stick with things that have a longer shelf life. Like global warming.
3 - Dave Nalle
I have to point out that you warn us to be aware of the symptoms and then don't actually say what those symptoms are.
Dave
4 - Dr Dreadful
Of course, H1N1 has probably mutated millions of times since 1918 and we haven't even noticed. The virus couldn't care less if it kills you or not: all it's interested in is reproducing, and your cells happen to be where it likes to do that. From the point of view of any given mutated strain, if makin' sweet viral luuurv causes you to get sick, fine; if not, well, that's just dandy too.
5 - Glenn Contrarian
For all -
A disease that kills off 50 million people should be taken rather seriously, don't you think?
My qualifications? Other than caring for medically-fragile children for a decade, none...but of course not too many of you know what that involves.
A better qualification is one's knowledge of HISTORY. I've been listening to Dr. Talking Head after Dr. Talking Head for weeks now...and almost every one gets some of the facts wrong.
YES, the doctors know better when it comes to the body...but these doctors are a PRIME example of "those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them".
In all honesty, sciencedailynews.com noted that the current strain seems to be a 'mongrel' of several strains whereas the 1918 strain was closer to a pure avian strain. Be that as it may, we might still be only a mutation or two away from having another pandemic that kills tens of millions within months.
Thankfully, that now looks unlikely.
Lastly, I wish that all the cynics here would look at my MOTIVE for posting the article. Was it for my own self-aggrandizement? Hardly. It was for PUBLIC SERVICE, and nothing more. If I wanted to post stuff just to get attention, there's plenty of subjects I could address.
I want NO harm to come to ANYone. That was why I posted the article. I wanted to provide guidance and reassurance in what could have been a worldwide catastrophe (but now looks like it may not, thank God). That's all.
6 - Ruvy
Glenn,
While I respect your experience and your medical knowledge, I have to agree that you do not outline the symptoms of the swine flu - or why it causes death to those it does kill.
With all due respect, may I suggest that you visit Recombinomics.com, look under "What's New" and view either the raw video or the regular video that Dr. Niman posted there. Both can also be gotten from links at my own article on the swine flu, which I'm sure you have seen by now.
Reasonable people can disagree on this topic, and we do seem to disagree. But that will not be the first time, will it?
7 - pablo
'Back in February I posted this article describing the H1N1 (Swine Flu) pandemic which swept the world in 1918, killing (according to most modern estimates) at least 50 million and possibly as many as 100 million people.'
Huh? Since when has it been established that the 1918 flu was caused by swine? That even today is at best a theory, not a fact. Do your research pal.
8 - pablo
Also this current H1N1 flu virus is not just from swine. It is a very strange combination of avian, swine and human.
Genetic origins of the 2009 swine flu virus.
HA Hemagglutinin swine (H1) North America
NA Neuraminidase swine (N1) Europe
PA RNA polymerase subunit PA[119] avian North America
PB1 RNA polymerase subunit PB1[120] human 1993 H3N2 strain
PB2 RNA polymerase subunit PB2[121] avian North America
NP Nucleoprotein[122] swine North America
M Matrix protein M1, M2 swine Eurasia
I suggest if you want to act like you know what your talking about that you do a bit more research into your subject matter.