If you don't see the common theme, allow me to explain: failed or failing states are bad juju, for both the international community (can you say, "peacekeeping operation?") and the states immediately adjacent to the problem area. A weak state is like a black hole, with the gravitational pull to drag in and crush anything nearby.
With that, should Iran's government evolve over time into a moderate and open minded Islamic state, that would be a good thing; should Iran fall swiftly and violently, we'd have three states in a row (Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan) riding the bleeding edge of domestic catastrophe.
Thus although I don't agree with Iran's stance and thinkit would move forward as a nation by showing some good old-fashioned acceptance, I'm not in a hurry to see the Iranian government shift so radically and swiftly that it collapses from overextending.
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Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
David Fielder wrote,
"In the weeks since Israel ended 38 years of military rule over the Gaza Strip by forcibly removing thousands of Jewish settlers who had lived amid 1.3 million Palestinians, it has racked up significant political rewards. First came a long-planned public handshake in Istanbul, Turkey, between the foreign ministers of Israel and Pakistan, marking the first official contacts between the Jewish and Muslim nations.
Unfortunately, it was followed a few days later by this:
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad [of Iran] declared Wednesday that Israel is a 'disgraceful blot' that should be 'wiped off the map'"
A public handshake with a 'strategic ally' (that is the official relationship between Turkey and Israel) is a lynchpin of success? This is a significant political reward? And ten thousand people evicted from their homes and livelihoods who were promised homes by a lying government - and who are now refugees in their own country is also a lynchpin of success? Also a signifacant political reward?
Fifteen Israelis dead from terror attacks since the expulsion from Gaza is another lynchpin of success, I suppose, another significant political reward.
With such lynchpins of success, me and my countrymen can all die of heart attacks or terror attacks (does it make a difference? - one dead Jew is as good as another) and it will be a significant political reward if our graves are not uprooted by the Arabs!
Yeah, right.
Wake up kid! People marching in the streets of Arab towns calling for our slaughter are not peace partners - they are enemies who want to kill us. You are entitled to delusions, but any Israeli who thinks otherwise is a blithering idiot. And we deserve the Arabs' contempt for not slaughtering them as they deserve, and listening to the scum from your country and the EU who would carve up this nation like a slab of meat and hand it over to them, maybe taking some choice bits for themselves along the way.
Iran would not threaten nuclear destruction of Israel if they feared it. They don't. They too, have contempt for Israel, and rightly so. We Jews have not rinsed our feet in the blood of our enemies, we have not instilled fear in their souls or driven them from the land that G-d gave us.
Al Qaeda, in an interesting e-magazine article a month or two ago, gave this analyis. The Koran gives us Jews the right of ownership over the Land of Israel Al Qaeda recognizes the Divine promise of this Land to Israel. But we Jews, because we are willing to compromise this Land, have lost our right to it - because we refuse to put G-d and His promises before our own welfare.
Boy, they have it on the money. And you are whistling past a graveyard like a fool. Our survival is not your fight in America - it's ours. Unfortunately the traitors on Kiryat haMamshalá (government hill) downtown are whistling the same tune you are - and leading us to the graveyard you are whistling in.
2 - alienboy
Ruvy, it sounds like you need a holiday.
I'd like to know a credible scenario in which Iran tries to implement this pipe dream policy of its new president.
3 - RedTard
AB, It's really not that hard to imagine. If you keep the propaganda and rhetoric up long enough you just might convince some high level jihadist to pull the nuclear trigger prematurely.
Granted, it would probably take a fairly large conspiracy to pull it off, but the level of hatred is so high that it might be possible.
It is at least a scenario we should plan for ahead of time. My suggestion is to take preemptive action off the table and reimplement MAD. (If Israel goes, so does Tehran)
My concern is that, as you pointed out, if a bomb does make it to Israel it will probably not be official Iranian policy. Their government will claim they had no prior knowledge and offer to help us in the investigation. The world will feel sorry for the innocent Iranian people who would be affected by retaliation and nothing will happen. Israel will be gone and no one will have the guts to do anything about it.
4 - RedTard
They could also offer one to terrorists who would smuggle it in. After the detonation it would be pretty difficult to determine where the weapon came from. North Korea, Iran, and Russia would all point the fingers at each other and again we would not be able to retaliate.
5 - Dave Nalle
Ahmedinijad is a walking argument for the US reversing the 1978 executive order prohibiting assassination.
Dave
6 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Bear in mind that the Iranians (as opposed to the Arabs) would have to be subject to a first strike strategy. We here are too small for a MAD strategy. If Israel uses its nukes, it has to hit first, hit fast and hit hard - without mercy.
Similarly, if Egypt did become a threat (they are getting there fast), our nukes would have to destroy the Aswan High Dam.
But in the event of any of these scenarios, Israel would have to be prepared to go it alone. That means no tourists, no imports, an economic boycott by the Europeans and Americans, and very possibly an attack from either of the two. There is no Israeli government now that has the cojones to pull it off.
A pity.
Alienboy, in Israel we all need a holiday - especially from the trash that comes out of the US State Department, the EU, the Vatican and the other vultures who pretend friendship while trying to do us in.
7 - Jim Fielder
"Kid?"
Lessee... I'm fluent in Persian, have a masters in Middle East National Security studies, am a Middle East Foreign Area Officer, and have studied Middle Eastern affairs professionally since 1994. I think I know a thing or two.
8 - alienboy
RedTard,
I think you'll find the Iranians have their own command and control system that wouldn't simply allow "some high level jihadist to pull the nuclear trigger prematurely". After all, Israel is the biggest nuclear power in the region. And it's not as simple as letting off a firework in the street.
And there is no way that the entire Iranian nuclear arsenal, if they have one, could cause a situation in which "Israel will be gone".
Mr Nalle, the problem with these kind of policies is that it also gives permission to other countries to do the same thing. Look how many countries have copied the US military's handling of prisoners.
IF the USA was some kind of tried, tested and proven fair judge and witness, it may possibly merit the role of global policeman, but it isn't and it doesn't.
I don't agree with the perspective personally, but if your idea became accepted, you guys would be as much targets as executioners so it would rapidly become very ugly. Bad idea.
Ruvy, you DEFINITELY do need a holiday quite urgently...
9 - preston parkhurst
"Alienboy, in Israel we all need a holiday - especially from the trash that comes out of the US State Department, the EU, the Vatican and the other vultures who pretend friendship while trying to do us in."
Trash from the US state dept.? you mean that trash known as billions of American tax payer dollars in the form of foriegn aid welfare... that trash?
Personally I think all US foreign aid should be suspended, particularly to the two biggest welfare nations of Israel and Egypt. Jihadist, Jewish supremecist, you people deserve each other.
the sad part about you radical mullah's is that you so detract from those Jews and Muslims who are not so steeped in reigious dogma that have half a chance of brokering peace.
10 - steve
after reading this blog about Iran's "leader" it makes me wonder who is higher on Bush's shitlist...Iran or N/Korea? Iran and North Korea both have armies far superior to that of Saddam's. I hope none of this hits the fan.
11 - Dave Nalle
>>"Kid?"
Lessee... I'm fluent in Persian, have a masters in Middle East National Security studies, am a Middle East Foreign Area Officer, and have studied Middle Eastern affairs professionally since 1994. I think I know a thing or two.<<
Well, Ruvy is a cranky old Israeli guy. Assuming I'm correct on the 'old' part you could still be a 'kid' from his perspective. Graduate degrees, languages spoken and job experience don't actually alter your relative chronological age. That's been my experience with some people and it doesn't necessarily mean much. I suspect I'm older than you are and I've got academic and professional qualifications galore and I know a couple of people who call me kid.
Plus, no one can tell any of that stuff on the web. No matter how well you write or how solid your ideas are they stand on their own, and a talented 16 year old can sometimes come off just as sharp and informed as a qualified expert. To some degree that's what makes this forum so valuable, you're judged solely on the quality of your writing and insights, not on what degrees you have or what you've done out in the real world.
As for this discussion, I don't think that you and Ruvy are actually working at cross-purposes here. You've just got different perspectives on the issue, clearly both well informed and valid. But there's a huge difference from working for the State Department and studying the area and living day to day in Israel.
From what I can tell Ruvy has a much more balanced perspective on the middle east than I'd expect from an Israeli, so put aside the offhand comment about you being a 'kid' and the fact that you don't agree 100% and perhaps the two of you could engage in mutually beneficial exchange of ideas. I know I'd find it informative.
Dave
12 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
I was writing something up earlier but after the third or fouth paragraph, I hit the wrong key and lost everything. Not only am I an old crank, I'm a lousy typist!
I'll be sending out several posts to avoid losing one long one.
Jim, Dave Nalle said a lot of what I was going to say, only somewhat better. I didn't mean "kid" in a derogatory fashion. From what you write about yourself, I'm probably half a generation older than you. I'm sure you know about Iran and would be loathe to question your expertise on it, but you don't know what it is like to live here as an average joe. Were I a foreign service officer here, I wouldn't know either.
13 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Preston, you must be under the impression that American "aid" is money injected into the treasury here. It's an understandable mistake. About 1% of American "aid" is spent on administering a program by which Israel gets to spend American money in the United States.
What does this mean? It means that tanners in Beersheba making boots for the IDF lose their jobs because the Israeli Security Ministry is spending that money buying lower quality boots made in Ohio. American "aid" means that Israel buys M16s from your country instead of making the Galil rifle here, buys American tanks, jets and missiles instead of making them here. American "aid" means dependence on your government for supplies, rather than independence from it. That is why your government "gives" the "aid." It allows the State Department to buy up our politicians like so many judges bought up by a party machine, and then these politicians say how dependent this country is on your government.
The fact of the matter is we don't need you. Your government is an unreliable "ally" and in reality, is more of an enemy than anything else. I'd be very happy if you wrote your congressman and senator saying that not only are you opposed to American aid, but Israelis don't want it either. The sooner we are weaned of the American aid "nipple" the safer we will be.
We can make our own computers, tanks, rifles, ammo, uniforms, airplanes, avionics systems, TV's, refrigerators and a whole lot more. We don't need your government getting in the way every single time our companies work up a deal with a foreign country to sell them defence equipment. We don't need your country constantly telling us how WE have to follow a road map or be supportive of another Arab country here, how WE have to make concessions, etc. etc.
We don't need five American basea on our soil, we con't need NATO protection, we don't need your spies, lies and dictating our future to us. It would be a great idea if the American government packed up its briefcase and got the hell out of OUR country - the one WE have fought and died for.
14 - Dave Nalle
If only someone over here was listening to you, Ruvy. Especially some of the Jewish organizations, their lobbyists and people like Joe Lieberman on Capitol Hill. It would be a hell of a lot better for Israel if it had that greater dependence you talk about, and the US would benefit as well in many ways.
Of course, the amount we spend on Israel is pretty small, especially considering so much comes back into our own economy.
There's also the issue that if Israel were truly independent we might not like what it was doing with its independence. As I recall there was a time when Israel was rather free with its own military aid in the form of weapons contracts and military advice and training for rather questionable governments like the post colonial governments of Rhodesia and South Africa.
Dave
15 - Preston Parkhurst
< The fact of the matter is we don't need you. Your government is an unreliable "ally" and in reality, is more of an enemy than anything else. >
< we don't need your spies, lies and dictating our future to us. It would be a great idea if the American government packed up its briefcase and got the hell out of OUR country >
I happen to completely agree with you, please return the money, an no, no personal checks accepted. I am all for Israel standing on its own feet for a change, left alone to pursue its own interest and self determination. Please take your lobby which is now the second largest in the United States when you go.
As to the spies, please inform those under the current FBI investigation; the AIPAC spying case that they should have remained at home. You are welcome to have Johnathon Pollard's head on a platter too if you like, as we used to hang spies in the United States before we went soft under the influence of a lobby with exorbitant funding.
who says you can't come to an agreement with those in the Middle East.
16 - demabloggery
And we deserve the Arabs' contempt for not slaughtering them as they deserve
====================
Okay, coming from a viewpoint that does agree that force is often required in dealing with Arab tribalism in the form of governments, I'm completely horrified at this statement.
17 - Ruvy from Jerusalem
Wallace, I find myself horrified that I should have to consider that a slaughter of Arabs here is required. But I live here. If I intend to continue to live here, I cannot afford the Duke of Queensbury rules in dealing with people who say flat out, "slaughter the Jews!"
18 - alienboy
But they're not doing it, are they Ruvy?
19 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Preston, I'm pleased that you agree with me. If I could call up Sharon and tell him, "hey Arik! It's time to cut bait with the Yanks and go tend your cows!", I would. Unfortunately, all that would get me would be a visit from the Shabak (our version of the secret service and FBI combined) and a number of long hours in a back room with unpleasant young men who have no respect for their elders.
It will be a little harder than all that, I'm afraid.
And as for the American "professional Jews," they will not leave your shores on their own accord. They like the life of beggars with suits on. They figure they are doing us a service and avoiding having to move here at the same time - two for one, you see.
A more "biblical" solution will just have to be found.
I'll pray on the matter.
20 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Sorry, Alienboy, you lost me. Who are they, and what are they not doing?
By the way, about that holiday you say I need so badly. Are you springing for it?
21 - alienboy
>people who say flat out, "slaughter the Jews!"
In the interests of not perpetuating stereotypes, I'll just say LOL!
22 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Dave, unfortunately, the Jews in exile have an establishment with an agenda of their own. If they don't send their kids over here to fight in the IDF (or come over themselves), they feel guilty. So they write checks and try to make peace with the butchers who want us dead. As I pointed out to Preston, they are happy to do us here a "favor" and beg for money, and then not have to make aliya (immigrate here).
And our politicians, being the high class individuals they are (drunks like Rabin, sadists like Peres, bullies like Sharon, thieves like Olmert) get into the schnorring (begging) game themselves. So they get rich and we stay poor. We lose honor. We lose respect. We lose self-respect.
The fools in the States, these Jews who think they are doing us such a mitzva by bargaining away our honor by begging, don't want to hear reality.
They want to be the eternal victims. And in buying themselves victimhood, they drag us down with them, making us terror victims in the process. It stinks, Dave, it stinks. I never thought I'd hear myself say this, but we're better off without the rich alrightniks in America. They should stay there and leave us alone.
23 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Ah Alienboy - so you mean that the Arabs who scream "Itbahh el Yahud!" are not quite succeeding, eh? Well, it's not because they aren't trying, I'll tell you that much.
Five dead in Hadera, four in Judea - not a slaughter, but every dead Jew is cause for celebration for them. The Germans were a lot more efficient. But then again, we're armed now.
There are 80 terror alerts a day and the cops and Border Patrol here are so frazzled they don't know what to do with themselves.
Alienboy, we need a holiday from restraining ourselves and literally dying to please Bush and Condaleezza Rice. Our army has to feel it is succeeding. Killing a few top dogs here and there is nice, but it is not the solution.
The Arabs feel no fear. They feel, and rightly so, that the Americans will restrain us if we succeed in defeating their terrorists. A startegy must be implemented to break the Arab spirit in defiance of the world. It is not hard to do. But the traitors on government hill here will not do it. That is because their spirit - their will to win - has been brken.
So, something else will have to be thought of.
24 - alienboy
No, Ruvy, the point is that there really is not any serious intention to either kill you all or wipe Israel off the map.
If you want a different life, you need to change the game. If Palestine was able to become a full independent nation, the whole equation would be changed for ever. It's going to happen anyway sooner or later...
25 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Alienboy, you may want to fly over here and tell the 1,800 families who have lost loved ones what you told me.
But before you spend the airfare, consider this. If the Arabs had wanted an independent state next to ours, they could hav had one in 1948 by not going to war against us. They could have had one in 2000, too. That's what was on the table in July, 2000 at Camp David. Arafat walked away.
He said no.
That Arabs do not want a Palestine side by side with us at all. They want the whole thing and us out or dead. That is what they tell their own people, what they teach their children. That is why they hold on to rusty keys to apartments that don't even exist in Haifa, Lod, Ramle, Yafo.
I'm sorry to tell you this but you are dead wrong in your assertions.
There will be a change and this State will no longer be here in a few years. But an Arab state will NOT rise in its place, or even alongside. That will not occur.