You know it's dark days for Republicans when you have Tim Russert, host of NBC's Meet the Press, questioning Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean about the three (out of a total of 19) categories in a recent poll in which Republicans were rated higher than Democrats.
George W. Bush's poll numbers are down to the lowest levels of his presidency. What began as a trickle early this year has picked up steam due to an unremitting series of miscalculations, negative headlines, and events turning against long-standing administration policies. Could Republicans have guessed, after their triumph in the 2004 elections, that they would be reading news such as this one year later?
Fewer than one in 10 adults say they would prefer a congressional candidate who is a Republican and who agrees with Bush on most major issues, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday. Even among Republicans, seven of 10 are most likely to back a candidate who has had at least some disagreements with the president.Bush's job-approval rating sank to a record 37%, down from a previous low of 39% a month ago. The poll finds growing criticism of the president, unease about the nation's direction and opposition to the war in Iraq.
It may be that 2005's off-off year elections (resulting in victories for the Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races) will bare little reflection the future, but nonetheless Republicans are choosing this moment on the electoral calendar to defect from a White House that until recently held together a remarkable and longstanding majority coalition. While the future is ever unfolding and history rewritten nearly daily, it could well be that President Bush's height of power will be marked from the moment al Qaeda struck on September 11, 2001 to the stumbling and incompetent response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster.
Of course, the ongoing war in Iraq appears to be an underlying factor to slackening public support for the government in a number of areas, from displeasure over continuing casualties and a lack of a cohesive plan to stabilize the nation to concerns over the use and possible misuse of pre-war intelligence that led to the 2003 invasion.
Republicans in Congress, many of whom must run for reelection in 2006, have finally been prompted to craft their own plan for Iraq in reaction to increased calls for a planned withdrawal or drawdown of an American military presence from the Democrats:
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Aaron Fleming
Excellent commentary Eric.
I don't really have anything beneficial to add, except that I'd like to see an influx of articles about how to break the two party system and open the doors of variety and choice.
2 - Aaron, Duke De Mondo
i echo Sir Flemings sentiments here, both on what i'd like to see happen, and also, the quality of this writing.
this is really top-top quality stuff, as good as anythin i'd read in, i dunno, The Guardian, although maybe you might wanna get a beard for that 1986 Guardian Chic.
Excellent stuff, man.
3 - Aaron Fleming
Haha, 1986 Guardian Chic!
Sorry, that reminds me of the time I burped up vomit...(I was 1 back then)
4 - Matthew T. Sussman
Wow, I can't believe so many people like John Edwards. I had no idea Crossing Over was so popular.
Seriously, I don't think this guy has anything but youth going for him. The post made sense up to that point.
5 - Aaron, Duke De Mondo
heh, i dunno what age i was. my mind started goin round about that time, you know how it gets for us old fuckers.
Eric, i forgot, interesting point about how Bush has no real heir in the running. that seems to be a fairly rare occurance, that right there, when the president is on the out an there's no real Yes, He's Next In Line. thank fuck, i might add.
6 - Eric Berlin
As luck would have it I do have a beard, though I know not what kind of chic, if any, it lends me. It's one of the buzz clipped scruffy varieties that attempts to make me look as though I was born in 1974 (the year I really was born in) and not 1986.
And thanks!
7 - Eric Berlin
Regardless of political circumstances, 2008 is perfectly situated for a smorgasboard of intrigue as it will be the first time in... (someone help me out here) that we'll have two candidates with neither an incumbent or sitting VP (assuming Cheney doesn't run, that is).
If Bush was as popular now as he was a few years ago, he'd already be grooming his "replacement." As it is, I think McCain is working mightily to take the position of the Next Ascendant, and in so doing it catering a hair to the right and slightly miffing his widespread and diverse base of supporters. It makes sense though: you've got to please the right wing to get through the GOP primaries. If anyone learned that lesson and well, it was McCain and his Truth Talk Express (or whatever it was called) in 2000.
8 - DJRadiohead
Well written, EB. Well written indeed.
It is still so very early in terms of 2008 to get a feel for where things might go. Midterm elections are a tough proposition, too. Conventional wisdom and history suggest the Republicans would take a hit regardless of the overal political climate.
I used to follow all this stuff more closely than I do now. I have gotten a pretty bitter taste in my mouth from the politicos over the past few years.
9 - Bennett
Grand commentary Eric. The bills before congress will spark a bit of the old Rove attack plan I think, then a whole buncha spin.
Should be amusing!
10 - DJRadiohead
I think it was called "Straight Talk" by the way.
11 - Eric Berlin
Bennett -- I think a Rove attack plan will be complicated by the fact that Republican congressional leaders are backing the plan!
DJR -- I'm hoping these columns will give a good round-up of politics and give a bit of analysis from the Big Picture perspective without inspiring bitterness.
And yes, Straight Talk Express, thanks!
12 - Natalie Davis
Dems, GOPs, bleh. Bring on the third parties.
13 - DJRadiohead
I am not convinced any 3rd parties will have any virtue other than they aren't GOPs or Dems. 3rd Party seems to me to be a buzzword for something different. Different isn't always progress or improvement.
That said... bring on the 3rd parties.
14 - Eric Berlin
I can't see a significant third party movement making its way into American politics for the foreseeable future. There's just no point for most because the two-party system is so enfranchised. Maybe it would take a surprise independent candidate running for president who can actually win? Again, highly unlikely.
I will say that the Green Party was cruelly torpedoed by Ralph Nader in 2004. That party had a shot of making something of itself. On the conservative side, there is room for fiscal conservatives to someday break significantly from social conservatives, but this is again very unlikely.
15 - RJ
Fine post.
Hillary will get the nomination easily, UNLESS the MSM turns on her at the last minute, like they did with Dean in 2004.
So, right now I'm guessing it's McCain vs. Hillary...and McCain seems to be the likely victor...of course, that's 3 years in the future, so no one really knows...
16 - Eric Berlin
Six months ago I would have been ready to agree with you on McCain v. Hillary, RJ, but now I'm not so sure. McCain will face a still challenge from Giuliani, who will likely be widely embraced by Northeastern Republicans and a good cross-section of the electorate besides. It's no surprise really that McCain is currently tacking right (as opposed to the tacking center Hillary Clinton) to set himself up to grab the Republican base. If McCain can pull off this feat, he may have a relatively easy road all the way to the White House.
Hillary Clinton is in a strong position at present, but she may well face the "Howard Dean of '08" challenge from the left. Edwards, I'm arguing here, is setting himself up quite well for that role by admitting his war vote was a mistake. That, coupled with strong and consistent views in support of helping the poor, should make the '08 primaries fascinating to watch. Governor Warner may play out as the blue chip VP candidate for whoever gets the nomination (and it could even be Warner!).
And thanks for the kind words!
17 - Aaron Fleming
The thing about third parties is that they cannot emerge and mount a sufficient campaign to rival the two main parties because the presidential elections are based around money.
The two main parties have huge funds for PR operations, which makes it virtually impossible for anyone to set a challenge to them nationally.
The end of corporate sponsership would assist this problem, but even then it won't fully dissipate (just look at the wealthy families of Bush or Kerry).
The ideology reinforcing mass media doesn't help either (when was the last time Fox mentioned the Greens?).
18 - Dave Nalle
What you guys are forgetting is how damned old and unhealthy McCain is. He's also considered to be at least somewhat nuts by many.
Dave
19 - Eric Berlin
I agree that McCain's age may be a factor for '08, Dave. But where are you getting "unhealthy" and "at least somewhat nuts" from? He's seems pretty spry and sharp to me, and the image he projects is about 90% less nutty than the average GOP politician as viewed from my side of the fence.
20 - Eric Berlin
Aaron - I agree that money is the lifeblood and therefore a major factor and problem in American politics.
In fact, it's sad that a wealthy businessperson or celebrity can easily step into the political arena and make waves whereas a theoretically qualified third-party candidate with visionary ideas will likely get less than nowhere.
How much influence, in your view, does money have on European politics and the multiple parties that exist over there? Or are those problems solved to an extent by limits on spending and/or a parliamentary system of proportional representation?
21 - Scott
McCain is viewed as "nuts" mostly by conservatives. I have some very conservative friends who right after they ask "So, is there any Republican you would vote for?" and I say McCain they just usually say, "are you kidding? He's crazy." I guess they have an aversion for smart, honest, principled, straight-talking politicians. But, they did vote for Bush so I'm not too surprised.
22 - Eric Berlin
I do think we're coming out of an era of several years where it was "nuts" for prominent Republicans to not always tow the party line. This era, I think we're seeing, is now over I very much doubt it's coming back anytime soon.
23 - Mark Saleski
nice post eric.
i'm a little in the dj radiohead camp here in that i'm just plain burned out on politics.
if we ever get to a point when honesty is valued in the public discourse (hell, if we even have what amounts to discourse) then maybe i'll wade back in.
right now it's all "gotcha" marketing coming from both directions and it sickens me.
24 - Eric Berlin
One of the interesting takeaways from the '05 elections, Mark, is that Kilgore's ultra-negative campaigning may have helped in contributing to his defeat. He ran an ad having something to do with Hitler... which is always a pleasant thing, isn't it?
25 - DJRadiohead
It's one of those great contradictions. Every election cycle someone does a poll to let it be known that "We the People" don't like negative campaigning. Just one problem. We respond to it. We believe. It are influenced by it. In short? It works.
Take l'affair de Clinton. Poll after poll was taken to indicate how tired we were of the coverage. Check the ratings, kids. Those shows did bang up business.
There is a huge disconnect in what we say we want and in our personal behavior. EB, maybe you're right. Maybe it backlashed in this case. That has happened a time or two but there is an awful lot history to suggest we love our trainwrecks. We'll hold our nose and decry the nastiness on Monday and reward the bastards on Tuesdays.