All observers are having to accomodate the obvious reality of a change in the wind in the Middle East: free elections in Palestine and Iraq, the Egyptian president pledged to hold competitive elections soon, a popular uprising against Syria's occupation of Lebanon forced Beirut's puppet government to resign, and Syria itself now is in the bull's eye — literally without a friend in the world — on the verge of quitting Lebanon with its tail between its legs. The writing on the wall, as in the Berlin Wall, is beginning to have the appearance of inevitability, and the appearance of inevitability can inexorably make it so: it's all about contagion and the Big Mo.
But how is it possible that this momentum has developed so quickly, particularly in Lebanon, where just weeks ago Syria still seemed invulnerable? Habib Malik, professor of history and cultural studies at the Lebanese American University, explains it starkly and well:
- in just a matter of months Syria has managed to do everything possible to replace Saddam Hussein's late regime in the “axis of evil.” The regime of Bashar al-Asad has wreaked violence and mischief on virtually every front, from its harboring of Iraqi insurgents, to its support for anti-Israel terrorists, to its ham-handed extension of Emile Lahoud's presidency in Lebanon, to its transparent attempt to destroy the budding anti-Syrian protest movement by targeting leading Lebanese Druze politician Marwan Hamadeh. Three developments in quick succession—the Hariri assassination, which was widely attributed to Syria; subsequent threats by Damascus that “negative consequences for the Lebanese” would follow any widespread calls for Syrian withdrawal; and the announcement of a deepening Iran-Syria strategic partnership—only served to galvanize local, regional, and international outrage at Syrian behavior and raise questions about the underlying thinking of the country's leadership.
Clearly, this is a different Asad—the late Hafiz would never have pursued such a series of rash acts, which have only invited international condemnation and intervention. Bashar seems bent on compounding errors, not deflecting negative attention. He seems to lack any appreciation of the momentous impact of the September 11 attacks on Washington's strategic thinking, any sense of U.S. commitment to persevering in Iraq, and any sense that the Bush administration might be serious in its pursuit of democracy and reform in Arab societies. Unlike autocratic Arab leaders in Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere, who have taken steps to accommodate and perhaps reorient U.S. policy, Bashar's regime more closely resembles a Middle Eastern version of totalitarian Brezhnevism, mired as it is in old thinking, tired ideologies, and brutality as national strategy. [Washington Institute for Near East Policy]
- AS THE MIDDLE East changes all around him, Syrian President Bashar Assad still tries to play by the old rules. He figured he could sponsor terrorism in Iraq and Israel and thereby block progress toward democracy and peace. He calculated that the car bomb that killed former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri — whether or not it was planted by his agents — would stop the gathering Lebanese independence movement. He was wrong: In each case, such tactics have been defeated by an emerging Arab movement of people power.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Mark Schannon
Once again, Americans get suckered by faint whisps of democracy rising from the ashes of the Middle East. But who knows, maybe the Bubble Bush Machine (Motto-"What we can't hear can't exist") has stumbled into a policy that works. Does that excuse the lies to the American people about the Iraq war, the thousands dead, the abuses of civil rights, the torture and denial of basic constitutional rights of prisoners, the effect on our ballooning deficit?
This is an administration without a clear sense of direction or purpose and with no sense of morality or truth.
2 - Tom French
Good article and good comment. I feel hopeful that there is good momentum to change the strong religious fundamental control over middle east governments. I'll still reserve my judgement to see what actually happens. Also, the religious fundamental government in the US is troubling.
3 - Eric Olsen
Tom, I respect your open-mindedness. I believe the "religious fundamentalist" aspect of the Bush administration is greatly exaggerated: its central foreign policy tenet is fostering democracy, not Christianity.
Mark, buried in there somewhere was an acknowledgment that the administration has "has stumbled into a policy that works" - good for you.
4 - jadester
also, i'm almost certain the administration would prefer a friendly non-christian foreign government, to an unfriendly christian one (and regardless of my personal opinion of Bush, this stands to reason for any government of the world)
5 - Eric Olsen
well-put Jadester, you are a sensible man
6 - SFC SKI
To answer your queston, Mark, yes.
Interesting times, indeed.
7 - Eric Olsen
oh yes, I agree with Ski that the answer is yes
8 - Dan
In time, liberals will simply pretend that democratic change in the middle East was inevitable and would have happened anyway. If they begrudgingly give any credit to the Bush administrations policies at all, it will be to say that it only hastened the change. More likely they will insist that Bush's ham-handed and dangerous policies nearly screwed up this inevitable process and cost unnecessary loss of lives.
It will be the same historic revisionism they applied to Reagan winning the cold war, and the prosperous "peace dividend" that followed.
9 - Eric Olsen
though there is still a long way to go and the path is frought with ... (blah blah blah), I do feel somewhat personally vindicated by events thus far because I have said all along the most important reason for going into Iraq was to give the region an enema
10 - SFC SKI
Your comment hits to the heart of the matter for me, Eric. Should IRaq be a precedent-setting example for interventionism? No, but this war was a specific response to a much larger threat, and in this case it was the right response in the right place and time, in my opinion.
11 - NC
So then. Does this mean Neal Pollack was wrong? Or is Bush history's first liberationist fascist?
12 - Eric Olsen
thanks Ski, perhaps we should now call ourselves FuckingARightPundits
NC, don't fascists always call conquest "liberation"? Don't be deceived.
13 - SFC SKI
"FuckingARightPundits"? Can we get shirts made?
14 - NC
Only now do I see the sinister Orwellian double-speak involved in calling the protests in Beirut "pro-democracy."
McSweeney's 1, NC 0!
15 - Eric Olsen
of course, you can wear yours when you teach
16 - SFC SKI
I am told setting the right tone in the classroom is the key to success.
17 - Eric Olsen
as indeed a shirt such as that would assure
18 - Eric Olsen
UPDATE, Bush keeps up the pressure, see above
19 - NC
FASCISM!
20 - SFC SKI
THat's right NC, we are gonna do it just like Adolf and Benito, move in and depose their oppressors and then make 'em vote and run their own countries so we can go home to some good bar-B-Q and football.
21 - Eric Olsen
all I can say at this point is, push push, in the Bush
22 - RJ
Somwhat off-topic:
Instapundit has been posting a lot of pictures of Lebanese protesters, mostly women. And some of these chicks are hot!
Who knew?
23 - RJ
In time, liberals will simply pretend that democratic change in the middle East was inevitable and would have happened anyway. If they begrudgingly give any credit to the Bush administrations policies at all, it will be to say that it only hastened the change. More likely they will insist that Bush's ham-handed and dangerous policies nearly screwed up this inevitable process and cost unnecessary loss of lives.
It will be the same historic revisionism they applied to Reagan winning the cold war, and the prosperous "peace dividend" that followed.
I believe you have hit the nail on the head, my friend...
24 - Triniman
I noticed these Lebanese protester-babes from some television footage. Nice to see them again.
25 - Doug Goldstein
Eric, I respect your open-mindedness. But, unfortunately you're quite the kiss-up to the softies in this blog, and it's not that I don't believe you will one day truly understand how beautiful America really is, but I'm afraid now is not the time to be reserved and polite to freedom-hating liberals.
What is with these people against the Iraqi War and against the US? And now against our democratic mission in Syria and Lebanon.
JUST SOME FACTS ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST FOR THE FREEDOM-HATERS:
#1. Like our President has clearly said: Israel (and the US) is a democracy which means it provides freedom for Jews, Christians and Muslims, freedom to equal access of land, food, water, jobs, housing, political positions and national elections for all. Unlike Syria, who occupies Lebanon!!!, Israel (and the US) is a democracy and does not occupy any soverign nation or land because both our President and Sharon believes in freedom for all people. The Israeli military (and the US) does not kill Muslims/Arabs (only if they are terrorists) or foreign journalists or American protesters, and all those incidents you read in the media are either lies you freedom-haters keep referring to or were by accident, and as we all know accidents happen.
#2: Unlike Iraq, Syria and Iran: Israel does not have any WMD's, or a WMD program of any kind and has proven this fact to the IAEA, the UN, and US inspectors. In fact, they are a shining example of a free democratic nation because they do not try to hide WMD's from the world and allow open inspections whenever requested.
#4 When our forces were sent to Iraq it was because Saddam Hussein had WMD’s that he planned to launch at the United States after 9/11. Saddam and Osama Bin Laden were going to attack the US again, but this time with nukleur weapons fired from Osamas caves in Bora-Bora and from Cuba, not far from Guantanamo Bay. Thankfully, we found all of their weapons of mass destruction, safely destroyed them and now our country and mighty Israel are safer. In addition, our soldiers were sent there to end the violence, torture, and murder of Iraqi civilians under Saddam's regime. Since our pre-emptive attack on the sovereign nation of Iraq, our troops have peacefully disarmed the Baath regime without inflicting any terror, or Iraqi civilian death, without destroying their homes, mosques, markets, universities, bridges and power plants and without torture or murders in the US run prisons or on the US patrolled streets. Iraq is finally free.
#5 We have brought democracy to Iraq and have freed the country so that now citizens can be free to have communication, electric, water, and energy sources privatized to American and other non-Iraqi businesses so that they are in the hands of responsible capitalist corporations like Haliburton, not Iraqis who don't understand freedom and democracy just yet.
#6 Noah Feldman and Paul Bremer, both true American leaders were the architects for Iraqi's interim constitution and most recent national elections which clearly shows that Iraq is a free nation after being founded by some of the world's most democratic men. It's called LIBERATION!!! and after seeing it happen this past Novemeber in America where every vote counts in this democracy, so it was in free Iraq after the recent elections where every Iraqi vote was counted and every candidate had equal access to the people.
Finally, our military forces have liberated Iraq (and soon Iran!!!!) from terror and hate using peaceful force, loving weapons, constructing 12 peaceful military bases in Iraq, humanely tortured interrogations and incarcerations and the most peaceful control of once sovereign Iraqi financial and natural resource assets.
We can only hope for our democracy and freedom that we brought to Iraq to come to Syria and Iran, because like RJ said: some of these chicks are hot! Now that was good planning on the President's part.