At past opportunities in the primary season, I've made attempts to guess who would win various primaries, with some success and some failure. I'd love to do it again, but Super Tuesday involves too many variables for me to absorb, process, and use to produce any kind of meaningful conclusion. All I can do is look at the whole situation and point to some trends which may not be reflected even in the latest polls but which I think will make a difference in the outcome. So here's your viewing guide for the Super Bowl of America's real favorite sport — and it's a blood sport, so enjoy.
The Republican Scenario
McCain's lead has been widening so fast in the past week that the other candidates are being tossed around like cows in a tornado. Right now, of the 21 Super Tuesday states, most of the polls have Romney winning only his home state of Massachusetts and Mormon-packed Utah. I think even that's questionable. Who knows Romney better than people in Massachusetts? And knowing him I can't see how they would vote for him. I'll give him Utah, though. The pollsters are predicting California and Georgia will be close. They're wrong. McCain will win California by at least 8 points and Georgia by at least 5. The Schwarzenegger endorsement is worth more than people realize in California.
If anything interesting is going to happen for Republicans it's likely to be in the small states that are being largely ignored by the media and the pollsters. Ron Paul might very well win Alaska as some have predicted. Hell, he might even win North Dakota and Montana while he's at it. Huckabee might have some surprises left in him. If he's going to win anywhere I'd put my money on Arkansas and Oklahoma.
By my count there are 1081 Republican delegates at stake on Tuesday, almost half of the total, but not quite enough for any candidate to actually win the nomination, which takes 1191 delegates to win. Even if every delegate today went to McCain he'd be about 30 short, and there's no way for one candidate to get all the delegates anyway. In my opinion the absolute best aspect of this particular primary season is that it won't end on Super Tuesday, and for the first time in decades my primary vote here in Texas might actually make a small difference.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - jacksmith
Bottom Line:
Like all of you. I know that health care is the most critical, and important issue facing the American people. Now, and in the coming elections. And like the vast majority of the American people, I want HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law NOW! "Single payer, Tax Supported, Not For Profit, True Universal Health Care" free for all as a right. Like every other developed country in the world has. See this
"HR 676: For church goers: less money to insur. companies and more to the church- lots more.
Srs on Medicare: save way over $100/wk. Because no more medigap, long term care & dental insur. needed. No more drug bills."
But if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our current politicians to get HR 676 passed into law before the elections. We will have to identify, and replace all the politicians standing in the way of passage of HR 676. And, I think the best first place to start is with the politicians that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bills for the kids. Passed by congress twice.
But what about the President. It was Bush after all that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bill passed by congress to assure more health coverage for Americas kids. So which of the presidential hopefuls do I think will be most supportive of implementing the demand of the majority of the American people to have HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law immediately!
We have some very fine presidential candidates who would make good presidents. But none of the top Presidential candidates directly support HR 676, the only true Universal Health Care plan. So I am supporting Hillary Clinton. She is the only top candidate that has ever actually fought for universal health care before.
I have enormous admiration, and respect for Hillary Clinton. She fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds back in 1993. To prevent this disastrous health care crisis that is now devastating the American people, and America. She fought so hard for the American people that she risk almost completely destroying her husbands presidency. I haven't forgotten her heroic effort. If any Presidential hopeful for universal health care deserves my support, it's her.
Also, if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our government to give us HR 676 which we all so desperately need NOW! Then we will need the most skilled politician we can get on our side to broker the best health care plan for the American people that we can get. Though it will be less than we need, and less than we deserve. The politician I think to best do this is Hillary Clinton. The Clinton's are probably the most skilled politicians in American history.
The insurance industry, and medical industry that has been ripping you off, and killing you has given Hillary Clinton so much money because they fear her. They have also given Barack Obama so much money because they fear Hillary Clinton. They think they can manipulate Barack Obama against the best interest of the American people better than they can manipulate Hillary Clinton. There is no race issue with Hillary Clinton. The Clinton's are the poster family for how African Americans want white people to be towards African Americans.
As always, African Americans are suffering, and dieing in this health care crisis at a much higher rate than any other group in America. The last time there was any significant drop in the African American death rate was when Bill Clinton was president.
My fellow Americans, you are dieing needlessly at an astounding rate. In higher numbers than any other people in the developed world. Rich, and poor a like. Insured, and uninsured. Men, women, children, and babies. And we the American people must stop it. And fix it NOW! Keep Fighting!!! Never! give up hope. There are millions of lives at stake. Bless you all... You are doing great!
2 - Les Slater
#1
I've read this exact post before.
3 - Dr Dreadful
Quite possibly, Les. I did a quick Google search and discovered that the whole comment is copied verbatim from an entry on the guy's own blog.
4 - Clavos
Ditto. Les is right.
It should be treated as spam, IMO.
5 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Dave,
Nice roundup of Super Tuesday. We'll see how close you come in your prognostications. Since I haven't a clue, I can't comment intelligently. It's been 6½ years since I've lived in the States, so I don't have too close a feel of the pulse of voters.
But it seems to be narrowing up real fast, with McCain as the Republican candidate and a choice between Obama and Clinton as the Democratic candidate.
And like 2004, it stinks.
6 - Hairless Simian
Mike Huckabee just won the West Virginia caucus after having been projected to have no wins. Looks like God is finally stepping in and taking a role.
7 - Dr Dreadful
Well, they are apparently his own thoughts, Clav, and he doesn't seem to be trying to sell anything. I'd been inclined to leave it. However, Mr Rose should be on patrol right now and will delete it if he sees fit.
...Along with your duplicate comment! ;-)
8 - Jet in Columbus
Mike Huckabee just won the West Virginia caucus ......uh, duh?
9 - Hairless Simian
The real issue in this election is whether we're going to allow our next president to be picked by Rush Limbaugh or not.
10 - Clavos
"Well, they are apparently his own thoughts, Clav, and he doesn't seem to be trying to sell anything. I'd been inclined to leave it. However, Mr Rose should be on patrol right now and will delete it if he sees fit.
...Along with your duplicate comment! ;-)"
They are indeed, Doc. The reason I say the second one should be treated as spam is because it was already published on another thread; when I attempted the same thing (Posting the same comment on more than one thread) last week, you or Rosey deleted all but one.
This time, my duplicate comment is thanks to that furshlugginer cocomment software.
11 - Jet in Columbus
"furshlugginer cocomment software" should I be afraid to ask?
12 - Dr Dreadful
Mike Huckabee just won the West Virginia caucus ......uh, duh?
And in other news:
- a frilled lizard runs for the Utah governorship as the Republican candidate and wins
- after an extensive search, Rudy Giuliani's erstwhile chief campaign strategist fails to find his ass with both hands
- Dave Nalle produces reams of statistics which prove indubitably (to him) that Huckabee's WV caucus win was (a) expected by him all the time and (b) insignificant.
13 - Dr Dreadful
"furshlugginer cocomment software" should I be afraid to ask?
Only if you consider it a matter of pressing global concern that Clavos has started inventing his own Yiddish phrases.
14 - Hairless Simian
Huckabee did win in WV solely because McCain told his supporters to vote for Huckabee in order to keep the states delegates away from Romney. Smart strategic move.
15 - Clavos
The cocomment software is explained at the bottom of the box in which you type your comments by clicking on "Learn more."
Ever since it was added, the comments don't publish as quickly as they once did, and consequently some of us impatient types hit the "publish" button more than once, trying to speed things along, but resulting in multiple postings of the same comment.
That was probably more than you wanted to know. Sorry.
16 - Clavos
"Only if you consider it a matter of pressing global concern that Clavos has started inventing his own Yiddish phrases."
Obviously, neither of you are as old as I am, and therefore were not, as I was, charter subscribers to Mad magazine in the 1950s.
It was a far more innocent, refined, and polite world back then, and Mad couldn't use the word "fucking" in print.
17 - RJ
#1 is spam. Even worse, it's Hillspam.
Disgusting. Kill it with fire.
18 - Dr Dreadful
I just read on the BBC that 'Little' Jimmy Osmond is backing Mitt Romney.
That's a stunning endorsement. I wonder what their connection is?
19 - RJ
"I wonder what their connection is?"
I wonder why Oprah is backing Obama.
20 - Les Slater
Well, it's almost official; the U.S. is IN a RECESSION. We’ll see how the candidates adjust.
21 - RJ
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The economy grew (barely) in the 4th quarter of 2007. The 1st quarter of 2008 isn't even over yet. Therefore, you are incorrect.
22 - Les Slater
RJ,
That's why I said 'almost'. It seems most observers are saying that it looks like we’re in the 'beginning' of a recession. A beginning is IN even though it will not be official until the data is in.
The big question on many economists minds is whether it will mild or deep, short or long. Not many believe it will be avoided, not withstanding Bernanke's whistling Dixie.
Les
23 - Les Slater
It's not likely Bernanke will be re-nominated by whomever strolls into the Oval Office come January.
24 - Clavos
"The big question on many economists minds is whether it will mild or deep, short or long. Not many believe it will be avoided, not withstanding Bernanke's whistling Dixie."
Nor, probably should it be avoided; the economy was due for an adjustment, as evidenced by the housing boom/bust bubble.
Recessions are like wildfires in the Everglades: good in the long run, because they clear out the deadwood and overgrowth, allowing fresh, renewed growth.
Fasten your seat belts, folks, we will experience some turbulence shortly.
25 - Dave Nalle
Yikes. Looks like Huckabuckster might win Alabama in addition to West Virginia. Hard news for Romney. Every state Huckamonkey wins is one less state Romney wins and helps push McCain a little closer to victory.
Oh, and if we MUST discuss the recession, consider this. If we didn't have recessions what exactly would go on with the economy? Do you really think it would just grow forever at a steady rate? Hardly. The alternative to the occasional mild recession is the less frequent but far more devastating full-on economic crash. So if the democrats don't like recessions I guess they prefer total economic collapse...oh wait, they do - that's what lets them use economic fearmongering to ram socialism down our throats.
Dave