Do the Democrats fight it out over Alito, or just pretend to fight? Do they go all out and filibuster the nomination, or do they put on a serious face and hold an inquisition on the Judiciary Committee to satisfy their base and make it easier to let them down when they don’t go all out?
Do they fight knowing they could lose, and knowing that the ultimate price of that loss would be the death of the judicial filibuster as a weapon? I get the feeling that we won’t know the answer to that question – and neither will they – until the hearings have gotten under way and they see how Judge Alito handles himself.
Many Democrats are itching for a fight and the issue groups on the left will be stridently opposed to the nomination, if nothing else for fundraising purposes. This goes double for the feminists groups which are a core Democrat constituency. Then there is the radical “moonbat” types that have taken over the organizational structure of the party. The Deaniacs and the MoveOn.org crowd – all supported by even more radical elements in the blogosphere.
The reality is that the Democrat leadership is caught in the grip of the extreme left wing of their party and they will have to make an effort to mollify them. The liberal leaders in the Senate such as Chuck Schumer and Ted Kennedy will be sure to grill Alito incessantly during the judiciary committee hearings, probing for a wedge issue to peal off moderate Democrats and Republicans and to trip up Alito.
What the Democrats did this past week by forcing the Senate into a closed session was an attempt to change the subject from the Alito nomination, not so much with the American people, but with their own base constituency. They did this by focusing on something the base is even more frothy about than the Court – the war in Iraq. This was political theatre of the highest order.
While defeat may be a reality, or at least a strategic option for Democrats, it is not an option for Republicans. After being disappointed once with the Miers nomination, the Republican base will not tolerate being disappointed again, meaning anyone who steps out of line and doesn’t support invoking a rules change to overcome a filibuster will be toast. That being the case, I would suspect that any Republican so inclined would take refuge behind open opposition to Alito based on some other issue, such as abortion. Keep your eye on Chaffee, Snowe and Collins in this regard.
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