Once the new Senate convenes in January 2005, there will be 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent who generally sides with the Democrats (Jim Jeffords). The magic number for a supermajority in the Senate is 60. Can the GOP pull it off two years from now?
Let's look at the numbers.
There are going to be 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2006. 17 are currently held by Dems, 15 by Republicans, and 1 by the aforementioned Independent. So, right off the bat the Dems are in the difficult position of having to defend more seats than the Republicans.
Now, off-year elections generally swing in favor of the party who doesn't occupy the White House. However, in the last two off-year elections (1998 and 2002), the exact opposite has been the case. So it is not at all clear that this "iron rule" of politics is in effect anymore.
Anyways, here is my race-by-race breakdown for the Democrats and the Independent:
- Dan Akaka, Democrat, Hawaii. Safe seat for the Dems.
- Jeff Bingaman, Democrat, New Mexico. If he runs, he likely wins re-election. But he may not run again. If he doesn't, I expect Governor Bill Richardson to run for this seat, and win easily. But if Richardson doesn't run, this seat is vulnerable.
- Robert Byrd, Democrat, WV. This vile piece of trash is surely too old and feeble to run for another term. This seat is vulnerable, as Republicans have been doing better in this state recently.
- Maria Cantwell, Dem, WA. Being a first-term Senator, she will face a strong challenge for this seat. But this is Washington state, so I expect her to hold it.
- Tom Carper, Dem, Delaware. Another freshman Senator with a very good chance of re-election.
- Hillary Clinton, Dem, NY. If she runs again, she will likely face NY Governor George Pataki, or former NYC mayor Rudy Guiliani. But I don't think she'll run again, because she'll be totally focused on the Presidency. This seat could go either way if either Rudy or Pataki runs. Otherwise, it's a Dem safe seat.
- Kent Conrad, Dem, ND. A popular Dem from a very Red state. If he opposes Bush at every turn in the next two years, this one could be competitive.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - vox populi
I think Byrd wins again if he chooses to run. Despite his age and increasing incoherence, I think he does choose to run, ala Strom Thurmond.
2 - Jon Sobel
I don't think you're right about Hillary Clinton. I think she will definitely run for re-election. "Quitting" during her Senate term to run for President in 2008 will look less bad than surrendering her seat ahead of time because of naked ambition.
3 - RJ
"I don't think you're right about Hillary Clinton. I think she will definitely run for re-election. "Quitting" during her Senate term to run for President in 2008 will look less bad than surrendering her seat ahead of time because of naked ambition."
I disagree. Here's why:
If she runs again, she will likely face a formidable and well-funded foe (Rudy or Pataki). She could very well lose. And, if she loses in NY, she is not a credible candidate on a national level.
However, if she "resigns" from the Senate after one term, there is no risk. She can safely run as someone who has been in the WH for eight years, playing a major role there, as well as being an important Senator from a major state for 6 years.
And even if she ran again and won, how much crap would she take for immediately then running for President? Surely her challenger in 2006 will bring up the topic of whether she will serve out her full term. How will she answer that?
No, Hillary will no longer be the Junior Senator from NY two years from now. She will only be a Presidential candidate.
4 - RJ
"I think Byrd wins again if he chooses to run. Despite his age and increasing incoherence, I think he does choose to run, ala Strom Thurmond."
If he runs, sure he'll win. And he might very well decide to run again.
But, the man is a mess. Have you seen him lately? I've seen people with terminal cancer who looked healthier.
I hope this vile piece of crap retires, but only time will tell...
5 - Bill Lamb
Any post that uses the phrase 'vile piece of trash' to describe a person elected by the people of a state to represent them does not deserve comment.
Any questions why some decry the current state of political discourse in our country?
6 - Steve Rhodes
The NYT reports that Hillary's popularity is growing in NY. She actually is taking many moderate positions (which doesn't surprise me since she was never as liberal as the right painted her or some of the left hoped).
I'm not sure Feinstein will run again. She'll be 73 in 2006. Arnold will run for gov again.
If Jeffords doesn't run again, maybe Dean will run. I actually think he'd be a better Senator and he could win.
7 - RJ
News alert!
Senator Corzine of NJ will likely run for NJ Governor in 2006.
I have no idea if he'll win, but regardless, that would leave his Senate seat vacant. And the GOP will throw everything they've got and winning it.
8 - RJ
"If Jeffords doesn't run again, maybe Dean will run. I actually think he'd be a better Senator and he could win."
I agree.
I grudgingly respect Dean. He believes what he says, and say what he believes. The MSM massacred him because they felt he was unelectable nationally. I think they're right about that, but he surely is popular in Vermont...
9 - RJ
Typo:
"the GOP will throw everything they've got AT winning it."
10 - Daniel Kinnamon
Chances are Hillary will step down from the Senate if facing Pataki or Rudy...however those tow are talking about president and she could win against any other GOP nominnee. Beings as the GOP has a large number of seats up for grabs also I don't believe more than a 2-3 seat swing for either party is realistic.
11 - derek
harold ford jr will win the senate seat in TN
12 - RJ
I sorta like Harold Ford Jr. But he ain't gonna beat Senate Majorty Leader Bill Frist...
13 - TennesseeDemocrat
frist is not running for re-election in his seat. he will be running for president.
14 - Todd
If things continue to go badly in Iraq the Democrats have the possiblity of inflicting a lot of damage to GOP in 2006.
15 - JR
If things continue to go badly in Iraq the Democrats have the possiblity of inflicting a lot of damage to GOP in 2006.
I'm not so sure about that. If this election has taught us anything, it's that results don't matter.
16 - Manfredo Felice
The New Jersey Gov. race is in 2005, not 2006--if Corzine becomes Gov he will appoint a Dem. replacement.
17 - Truth Minister
New Jersey really needs some help. Help to get on the straight and narrow.
Leave it to a Democrat to make a mockery of a public office.
18 - bhw
You mean like Richard Nixon?
19 - Truth Minister
Don't think he was a Demo. Kind of like Bill Clinton, Ted Kennedy and their recent Gov who just stepped down.
20 - bhw
That was my point. It's not a party thing, it's a politics thing.
21 - Knemon
Bill Lamb - you know that Byrd was in the Klan, right?
22 - Barry Johnson
In Minnesota, it will probably be Mark Kennedy, 6th District, who runs against Dayton. This is the general Republican party consensus here. But you're right, Dayton is a total flake and very vulnerable. Dems would be wise to dump him in the primary if they want to protect the seat.
23 - Mark
I agree that Dayton will face a tough reelection, but he's not a total flake and I think he can win. He has sensible ideas on policy, he is a progressive, good friend of Paul Wellstone, and he is a good Senator. His problem is some occasional weak-looking statements or actions, like closing his office, but primarily the fact that he is usually a terrible speaker. His stammering, awkward pauses, and lack of energy during speeches is his greatest liability, but when he feels passionately, I have seen him give great speeches (Read his speech against the FMA. He delivered it smoothly, passionately, eloquently, and showed true intellect and innovation, qualities sorely lacking in today's Senate) at times. I think he can rise to the occasion if he faces a serious challenge. The Democrats need to keep an excellent Senator like Mark Dayton.
24 - Bob A. Booey
The GOP will undoubtedly test Hillary in 2006. Pataki is the only real possibility for a successful challenger: Rudy has too much to lose and doesn't need to go to the Senate to raise his profile. If Pataki runs, it'll be a race for the ages and probably the most expensive Senate race in history. This is a dangerous prospect for the Republicans, though: if Hillary loses, she's probably done as a Presidential candidate for 2008, absent some Nixonian rebirth that would probably come too late at her age. If she wins, however, she's tested and her profile will only be raised. A Hillary win over Pataki would put the fear of God in the GOP and make her the national front-runner for the Presidency in 2008. More importantly, the race would get such large national attention that all her negatives would already be vetted with much of the voting public long before 2008 and the positives would linger after a win. So, despite the risk entailed, Hillary should hope for a big battle in 2006. That would do more than anything else to make her the front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2008.
That is all.
25 - Eric Olsen
that makes a lot of sense BAB, but I think Hillary's negatives will always be too high for her to be a successful presidential candidate even if she manages to win the nomination. I think the first woman or minority president will be REpublican or a very centrist Democrat, which Hillary is not.