The modernising face of France's Socialist Party, Segolene Royal, has certainly seen better days. At one time, she was enchanting the electorate and enjoyed a marginal lead over the man they call Sarko. Now, however, Royal's campaign has quite nearly crashed and burned, opening the door for another modernizer, the aforementioned Nicolas Sarkozy, to run away with the vote.
Now, I would like to state for the record that Royal seems like sincere woman and she certainly did have big plans for the Socialists by questioning the 35-hour work week and championing zero tolerance law-and-order as she did. However, this sounds uncomfortably like Britain's New Labour. Ms. Royal would only have faced harsh criticism from within her own party and the far Left in France have rejected her. So, with the a hefty chunk of the Left deserting her and no significant votes to count on from the Right, Royal pretty much looks finished.
Enter Sarkozy, who is the candidate for Jacques Chirac's party, the center-right UMP. But Sarkozy is nothing like Chirac. Jacques Chirac was a conservative under a French definition of the term only — a jealous Gaullist, paranoid of the "Anglos." Sarkozy, in sharp contrast, enjoys close relations with Britain — he was recently feted in London by Tony Blair — and has expressed admiration for, and a desire to work with, the United States.
Chirac has refused to endorse Sarkozy, due to both personal as well as political matters. In fact, according to Jonathan Fenby in his book On The Brink: The Trouble With France, it is par for the course that French politicians from the same party fall out and refuse to lend their support once an underling vies for the top job. Fenby writes, rather amusingly, "Take any element of French life and it will almost certainly contain rival factions." Sarkozy is Giscard d'Estaing to Chirac's De Gaulle. Envious of Sarkozy's ambition and popularity, and disgusted by his transatlanticism, Chirac will leave politics silently and sullenly.
Article comments
1 - Roger Choate
Nice article, Mark. What do the latest polls actually say, specifically? There's still some time to go before elections. Should Royal be ruled out completely, in your opinion?
2 - Mark Edward Manning
Thanks, Roger.
Royal's not out, which is why I was careful to say that her campaign nearly crashed and burned, but didn't do so completely. She is rescuing her campaign and appeared on French TV a day ago, speaking directly to the people. I think what people have seen in her so far is an overzealous and unprepared candidate whose temperament needs more refining. After all, declaring that she was in favor of Quebecois independence and getting rebuked by Canada's Prime Minister was not the smartest of moves ... Royal may still have a chance, though.
Sarkozy has, at the time of writing, a ten point lead. He and Royal were only recently dead-even, but Sarko starting gaining an edge, and it just might have been due to Royal's gaffes and floundering. Both candidates are very sauve, seductive and politically sophisticated, but Sarko has the edge, as he is more experienced and better able to run a campaign.
Royal's not out and may yet put up another fight, but in the end, even if by a close margin, Sarko will carry the day.
3 - Aku
An interesting article. I have been trying to keep tabs on Sarkozy for a while.
What is of particular intrest to me is how he expects to prepare France, perhaps the most socialist and protectionist of the Major world powers, for greater globalization. His stabs at the 35 hour work week is a move in that direction.
4 - Mark Edward Manning
Sarkozy seems genuine in his desire for reform, and people seem responsive to this message. Sarkozy does have protectionist tendencies, but he's no socialist.
5 - RJ Elliott
Me, I'm rooting for Le Pen... ;-)
But seriously, French elections are much different than American elections. There are countless parties and countless candidates, and they will all get a share of the vote. It will most likely come down to a run-off between Sarkozy and Royal, with Sarkozy winning in the end. But how is Le Pen currently polling? And the numerous communists/socialists?
6 - JustOneMan
Im rooting for Pepe LePew
7 - STM
No matter who wins, it won't improve the standard of the waiters in Paris and it won't make our gallic cousins any less duplicitous :) France will just blunder on, still believing it is the world's most influential country.
They do make great cars though ....
8 - RJ Elliott
They make great cars? Which ones? I'm currently looking for a new car, so this is a serious query...
9 - Dave Nalle
I think STM was being sarcastic about the cars.
Dave
10 - JR
Renault, Peugeot and Citroen have all won championships at the top level of motorsport in recent years (Renault are two-time defending F1 constructors champions, and I think Citroen has won the last three World Rally Championships).
However, none of the French manufacturers currently sell cars in the U.S.
11 - STM
Actually Dave, I was being serious for once. They have moved beyond their quirkiness to the point where they are actually really bloody good cars. They have all been involved in racing, and Renault in particular is building some really hotted up cars using its F1 know-how.
I am driving a French number at the moment: a turbo-diesel Peugeot 307 station wagon. It's considered a green car here because of the particulate filters and Euro-standard emissions laws, and unlike my previous car - which seemed to use up the world's remaining oil supplies on a trip to town - this thing gets just over an amazing 5L/100kms. The mathematics of that are that it costs me about $20 a week to run, despite driving from home to the city six days a week, and cost just a fraction more to buy than the big locally designed Ford or Holden six-cylinder station wagons I was looking at.
It also goes like the clappers once you are off and running, with really good mid-range torque, although it won't pull the skin off a rice pudding in a drag race at the traffic lights.
It's been a revelation, though. Peugeot is advertising that its turbo-diesel 307s are getting 1100kms to a tank, although some owners are reporting better consumption.
I recently drove to near the Queensland border - a nine/10-hour trip from Sydney - on less than a tank, although I drove very carefully to conserve fuel.
And I'm doing my bit for the environment too, and for export to countries that drive on the proper side of the road, they have kindly also built their right-hand drives in England so the steering wheel is manufactured on the proper side of the car as is required in Australia, so it's all good.