Candidates have been hesitantly dipping their toes in the waters of the 2008 election, but as we move further along in the year some of the heavy hitters are beginning to form their exploratory committees and starting to raise money. Last week it was Hillary Clinton for the Democrats, and this week she's balanced out by another New Yorker, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the Republicans.
Giuliani comes into the race with a commanding lead in the early polls. Among Republican contenders he stands at 34%, compared to 22% for John McCain who declared way back last fall, and a surprising 15% for Newt Gingrich. Giuliani is also polling better against likely Democrat nominees than any other Republican. He's the only Republican who regularly polls higher than Hillary Clinton, though it's neck and neck. In candidate pairings no other Republican beats Clinton in any of the major polls. He also has lower negative ratings than any other declared candidate from either party. With a negative rating of only 37% he blows away all of the Democrats and even beats John McCain's 39%.
Giuliani brings a chimerical record to the campaign, because he combines very strong conservative positions on some issues with very liberal positions on other issues. He's likely to offend several of the core single-issue voting blocks in the GOP, based on a record which is very clear and spin proof. Given his record on the issues, what's remarkable is that Giuliani has a negative rating of only 17% among Republicans in the latest CNN poll, suggesting that a lot of party loyalists are willing to overlook some positions they don't agree with because of Giuliani's reputation for competence and integrity. Another plus is that he appeals to independent voters more than most other Republicans - a key advantage in an election where more voters than ever before are disenchanted with both political parties.
For Republican voters, Giuliani's scores big on issues like fighting crime, terrorism, taxation, fiscal responsibility, welfare reform and education. He was very successful as a prosecuting attorney and as Mayor he cut murders in New York City by more than 2/3, cleaning up the streets in a creative bottom-up program of fighting crime at every level. His record on terrorism is pretty well established. He was the voice of stability and competence during the 9/11 crisis, and has since become a professional security consultant. He's also been outspoken about his belief in a very firm foreign policy when dealing with terrorism. As Mayor he also managed to cut overall taxes by almost 20%, while cutting the city workforce and turning a multi-billion dollar deficit into a surplus. His record on welfare reform is less familiar, but he substantially reduced the rolls while he was Mayor, and supports programs for reintegrating welfare recipients into the workforce. He also has a very appealing record on education, with a history of substantially improving a declining public school system. He was the first Mayor to promote Charter Schools as an education alternative, and has expressed limited support for other forms of school choice.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Arch Conservative
Rudy Guiliani can kiss my ass.
There's no way he's getting my vote!
Oh and while Rudy's kissing my ass John Mccain can suck my d*&k because he's not getting my vote either.
2 - Nancy
Rudy may actually have a chance; a lot of liberals I know are inclined to vote for him if the Dems don't come up with someone pretty major. Any speculation as to who he'd pick as a running mate?
Arch is right: McCain has lost a lot of credibility on both sides, & it's going downhill fast. He's perceived as being as much of a suck-up & panderer as Hilary, & that's pretty bad. Also he's hawkish on The War - NOT what most want to hear in a potential prez.
3 - D'oh
As Arch demonstrates, there's just no way Rudy will survive the GOP primary process.
His personal history alone, much less his record on gay rights and abortion automatically preclude him from have the proverbial snowball's chance in hell in the South.
Add to it the tradition in the GOP of anointing those whose "turn" it is to run..in this case, McCain...and it becomes a non-starter.
the Tao of D'oh.
4 - Nancy
I suppose Giuliani could always run as a moderate Democrat...but you're right: the religious reich would never tolerate him; anyway, they've already anointed McCain.
5 - Dave Nalle
Arch supports Romney, of all people, who has less than a snowball's chance in hell. Giuliani at least appeals to a broad variety of Republicans while alienating a few single issue voters. Romney alienates everyone except the single issue extremists.
Contrary to D'oh's theory I don't think gay rights hurts Giuliani much. He doesn't support gay marriage, just civil unions, and that's a position most Republicans can live with except for the tiniest, craziest minority.
I don't think his problem is in the primary. He can win that without full party support. His real problem would come in the general election when the loss of the 15% of republicans who are true and total fanatics might be impossible to compensate for with independent and crossover votes. Unless, of course, the democrats run someone who alienatss enough of their own voters to give him the win, like Hillary with her near 50% disapproval in her own party.
Dave
6 - D'oh
Dave - all it takes is one stock photo of Rudy at the front of a gay pride parade...and there are plenty of those floating around., to eviscerate him among the "faithful".
No way he can take any primary outside of the northeast...and even there he will have problems, short odds in NH means non-starter.
7 - Nancy
Maybe he should run as an Independent....
8 - Leslie Bohn
Rudy will not make it 3 months in this race. Something will quickly drive him from the race involving one or more of the following:
Supposed Mafia ties
Bernard Kerik
One of his marriages/affairs
Some instance of his combative/narcissistic personality coming through. (Try to find the tape of Mayor Rudy haranguing a ferret-loving caller to Rudy's old radio show -- hilarious)
Rudy is a nitwit and a lightweight with no chance on a national stage. If by some miracle he actually gets himself into a position to challenge for the nomination, his supposed social liberalism will indeed do him in among the PTB in the GOP.
9 - Arch Conservative
I know what makes everyone think mccain is already in the bag for the nomination. Many, many, in the GOP don't want this guy to win it.
I still say it's going to be Romney unless someone comes out of left field.
I don't think the GOP will nominate someone merely because they are "electable" in the general election, especially if it looks like Hillary will be the Dem. I think the GOP base will seek to nominate someone who is both electable but at the same time is sincere about conservative values.
I don't think Romney's mormonism will stand in the way of his getting elected once the nation gets to see him do his thing. He's good looking, charismatic, intelligent, Obama-like (articulate), possesses the requisite management and financial skills and experience, and surrounds himself with capable quality individuals.
Guliani is too much of a social liberal and Maccain is Mccain.
All I have to say to the Nancys and Dave Nalles of the world is don't misunderestimate Mitt Romney.
10 - Aku
"Romney alienates everyone except the single issue extremists."
Any numbers on that, or do you think Southerners are so bigoted the idea of a Mormon in public office is an anathema? After all we all know southerners eat Hate Puffs for breakfast, drink Hateaid for lunch, and have a side of Hate hash for dinner.
11 - Jon Sobel
I have to agree with Leslie, especially "some instance of his combative/narcissistic personality coming through." Giuliani had the perfect personality (and a lot of good policies) for being Mayor of a New York City that needed a lot of cleaning up. But the American public as a whole likes politicians who seem friendly and optimistic. Hillary beats Rudy on that count. In the primary, McCain, despite his temper (and Rudy's got a serious temper too), beats Giuliani on that score.
Giuliani and McCain could go neck and neck in the primary, though. Each has certain appealing and certain unappealing qualities.
12 - georgio
what gets me is this hero image of Rudy after 9/11...all he did was carry out his job as opposed to Negrin of New Orleans who failed so how does that make him a hero..It's just like Obama..he wouldn't even be a Sen...if his opponents where not crucified by a bad marraige...the same thing can happen to Rudy if his ex wife sounds off...
13 - Dave Nalle
I still say it's going to be Romney unless someone comes out of left field.
The highest a major poll has Romney at is 3%. Do you get that? He's not even on the radar for most voters.
I don't think the GOP will nominate someone merely because they are "electable" in the general election, especially if it looks like Hillary will be the Dem.
Well, they should, especially if that's the best way to keep Hillary out of office. Your priorities are terribly screwed up. You'd rather see a socialist/statist win than make any compromises. You might as well leave the GOP.
I think the GOP base will seek to nominate someone who is both electable but at the same time is sincere about conservative values.
Fortunately not everyone in the GOP has the same narrow definition of what REAL conservative values or more to the point the real values of the GOP are.
Dave
14 - Arch Conservative
"Romney alienates everyone except the single issue extremists."
That comment wot withstanding, Dave's no idiot. He knows that if it's Hillary vs. Mitt there will be a lot of christian evangelicals wearing Joseph Smith t-shirts come November 2008.
15 - Arch Conservative
"Well, they should, especially if that's the best way to keep Hillary out of office. Your priorities are terribly screwed up. You'd rather see a socialist/statist win than make any compromises. You might as well leave the GOP."
The primaries are the time to vote your conscience and the general is the time to get practical. of course I'm going to vote for Mccain, as much as it pains me, if it's him or Hillary in Nov 08 Dave.
I really don't understand this fascination you have with Romney as an alienator Dave. You keep mentioning Romney's poll numbers. At this stage in the game polls are useless. Obama was only trailing Clinton by a few points just weeks ago and now he's 20 points down.
Aside from the fact that Romney's a mormon....what is it about the man that you think is going to turn people off Dave?
16 - Dave Nalle
That may be the most ridiculous thing I've eve rheard, Arch. Christian evangelicals would like to see the entire Mormon faith in death camps and you know it.
Dave
17 - Arch Conservative
Yes I know that evangelicals are not big fans of Mormons Dave but I also know their even less of fans for socialist hags like Hillary who are in bed with such fine organizations as planned abortionhood and naral.
Do you honestly think that evangelicals would opt for Hillary over Mitt?
18 - Dave Nalle
Any numbers on that,
Sure. The latest poll shows Romney with the second highest negative rating among Republican voters of any Republican candidate, right behind Newt Gingrich. I'd guess he would do even worse in the general election, but no one is even polling about him in that context because he's not considered a viable candidate.
or do you think Southerners are so bigoted the idea of a Mormon in public office is an anathema?
Southerners? Mormons are just as suspect or more so to northerners.
After all we all know southerners eat Hate Puffs for breakfast, drink Hateaid for lunch, and have a side of Hate hash for dinner.
We do? They don't even sell them in the stores here in Texas.
Dave
19 - Aku
"The highest a major poll has Romney at is 3%. Do you get that? He's not even on the radar for most voters"
Oh please, all polls resister now is name recognition. 3%? Big deal. Try similar polls for Clinton years out from his run. I the numbers would be even less.
Additional Point: The 2008 election season is barely on the radar for most voters, political junkies not included, thus it is no surprise Romney's number is so low. His event has not even started for most people yet.
Plus, you need to look at who Romney is targeting. It is not voters at large, it is strictly the active, in-party, people for the moment. Again, no surprise voters in general do not register him.
20 - Aku
"We do? They don't even sell them in the stores here in Texas"
Having grown up there, I would say you are not looking hard enough. ;)
21 - Dave Nalle
Aku, that's not 3% among the general population, it's 3% among registered republicans who should have some idea who the declared candidates are.
Some folks take pride in pointing out that I've been wrong before, but I'm willing to predict here and now that Romney won't even be in the top 3 at the convention.
Dave
22 - Aku
"I'd guess he would do even worse in the general election, but no one is even polling about him in that context because he's not considered a viable candidate."
See comment above, How can you generalize about primaries, much less elections from, from polling when the event in question has not picked up yet. Plus, did you catch the NR cover story from Dec (I think). There are some that woud disagree based on actual interviews rather than polls that tell you so little.
23 - Aku
We could continue this, but whats the point. I will say this. Mormons, for the most part have been solid Republicans. There is no state more red than Utah. Outside of Utah, Mormons still vote Republican.
What is the first and main objection raised against Romney. He is Mormon. So the message to Mormons is "We like your votes, but you're people can't be president."
What a nice party to be in.
24 - Dave Nalle
That's not a message from the GOP, it's a message from the general populace. Mormons are looked on with suspicion because of their history and lifestyle. People are always nervous about those who are different - that's human nature.
Have you seen the SouthPark episode on Mormonism? That pretty much sums up popular opinion on them.
Dave
25 - Aku
The same was true of Catholics in the past. Discounting Romney because of his Mormonism would be like discounting Kennedy because of his Catholicism in 1960.
And if the main objection in the GOP is his Mormonism, then the message is from the GOP Dave. Who is talking about his Mormonism being a problem in the PRIMARIES Dave, most, but not all, are closed. It's members of the GOP making the stink, and members of the GOP who presumably would not vote for him because of religion. How could this not be a GOP message, Dave?
Blaming bigoted attitudes, if you share them or not, on the populace and not on their purveyors, is like the drug dealer who avoids all blame by saying he is only giving the people what they want. Bigotry is not to be accepted, but confronted.
Perhaps I give more credit to the American people than you do. I think once people get to know each other, as people will get to know Romney hopefully, this prejudice will be put aside, and people will decide on his character and politics, not on his religion as some have.