Roanoke College released a poll in late October showing Romney ahead 49-44. This poll has a D+4 sample and showed Romney leading by 26% among Independents.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that enthusiasm for Obama in Northern Virginia is not what it was four years ago, while GOP enthusiasm is much stronger. Romney needs to win Virginia, and he will. (Romney by 3%)
Colorado - 9
Another state that appears to be basically tied. Let's look at those fun exit polls again. In 2008, Obama won the state by nine points. Republicans actually had a 31-30 turnout advantage over the Democrats, but Independent voters supported Obama by 10% over McCain.
In 2004, Bush beat Kerry in Colorado by five points. Republicans had a nine point turnout advantage that year, according to exit polls. Independents favored Kerry by seven percent.
Based on the above, one would expect the GOP to have a turnout advantage of around maybe 5% or so this year. So let's look at some recent polling in the state. Purple Strategies released a poll in late October showing Obama leading Romney 47-46. The poll shows Obama and Romney tied among Independent voters. They used a D+1 sample size. In other words, the pollsters apparently believe that enthusiasm for Obama in Colorado has actually increased since 2008. Unreal.
American Research Group also released a poll in late October. It showed Romney ahead of Obama 48-47. The poll uses an R+2 sample size, which is certainly more realistic than the Purple Strategies poll, but probably still undersamples Republicans/oversamples Democrats. Independents in this poll surprisingly favored Obama by 8%.
So let's look at a Marist poll from late October. It shows a tie race, 48-48. The sample was D+1, the same as Purple Strategies. Sigh.
Okay. How about the SurveyUSA poll from late October that shows Obama leading Romney 47-45? D+1 sample. Wow.
Look, these polls are almost certainly based on a false premise about what the electorate is going to be in Colorado. But even if they are correct about the composition of the electorate, the race is basically tied, and undecided voters tend to break for the challenger over the incumbent. Romney will win Colorado. (Romney by 3%)
Wisconsin - 10
Romney has not had a lead in Wisconsin since mid August. The two most recent polls from Rasmussen Reports have the race tied 49-49, but every other poll shows Obama ahead. The GOP has a superb ground game in Wisconsin after all the recall battles over the past two years, and the Chairman of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, knows the state very well. Oh, yeah, and Romney's running mate Paul Ryan is a sitting congressman from Wisconsin. That helps, too. But I suspect all of that will only serve to keep the final outcome close. (Obama by 2%)