Yaknow, if Hillary was the nominee, this wouldn't even be close ...
Four years ago, I offered my predictions on the presidential election. And I was pretty darn accurate. (A helluva lot better than those exit polls, amiright?)…
"A sinister cabal of superior writers."
Article comments
— go to most recent comments26 - Lou
Has everyone gone crazy? Obama will not lower taxes on the middle class. The current tax rate of 35% is due to expire next year and he plans on letting this tax bill expire. This means that our taxes will adjust to a rate of 39.5% on our money - that's 4.5% tax increase. All his talk about lowering our taxes is a smoke screen and the liberal media just won't talk about it. He stands for bigger government which means more money from us. He will raise the capital gains tax which means less money for those of us who invested with the hope of some money to help subsidize our retirement. He has been a part of the most shady move to register as many voters as possible to get the most votes for himself - read the stories about ACORN. He attended a radical church for 20 years, where his children were baptized, has anyone researched what went on in this church? I did and it scares me to death.
Most people I talk with just listen to whatever they hear without looking into both the liberal and conservative media. The internet and the majority of newspapers out there are liberal but if you look hard enough you can find the conservative media - like the New York Post. Try reading some of their editorials and you will see what I mean.
What scares me even more about Obama is what this world will be like for my children. Terrorism is here to stay and for a man to claim he will negotiate with these people is crazy. They are not people of their words. Do we really need someone who will learn ON THE JOB when our security is at stake? My children's grandparents and many grandparents that I know down in Florida need to give this some thought. I am not one for war, but if it protects my children and we can stop these terrorists from coming to our country and hurting our children this is more important than anything that has been discussed in the presidential race. I'm I crazy here?
27 - Jet
Lou, you realize that everyone that agrees with you read that so you didn't change anyone's mind. Those who don't agree didn't read past the first paragraph.
...when will all of you learn?
28 - Arch Conservative
RJ I agree with your picks except for PA, NV and NH. I don't see McCain winning PA but he may pull out NV, NH.
Either way it's going to be Jimmy Carter redux.
Am I the only one that feels like going out and buying a gun upon hearing Keith Olbermann's voice?
29 - zingzing
kill, archie, kill!
30 - Lou
Thanks Jet - I was venting in frustration.
31 - Dave Nalle
Remember, if you kill yourself you only save one person from Keith Olberman's voice.
Dave
32 - RJ Elliott
The latest poll has McCain over Obama in Florida.
33 - RJ Elliott
The most recent poll has McCain up 5 in Indiana.
34 - Jet
Why would someone in Poland be concernad about what happens in Florida?
35 - Jet
RJ, why do I get the feeling that I'm watching CNN and you're watching Fox News?
36 - RJ Elliott
HOLY SHIT! Obama only up by 3 in Minnesota???
37 - RJ Elliott
Why do you think I'm in Poland, Jet?
And I'm actually not watching TV. I'm reading polls.
38 - Dr Dreadful
Yeah, Jet... you definitely need to keep labeling your jokes.
39 - RJ Elliott
Missouri is tied ...
40 - RJ Elliott
Was that a Polish joke? I don't get it.
41 - Jet
I never expected you to RJ... I never expected you to. ...sigh
42 - RJ Elliott
North Carolina leaning McCain ...
43 - RJ Elliott
Care to explain, Jet? I'll probably be up a while ...
44 - RJ Elliott
North Dakota close, but leaning McCain ...
It's actually pretty frightening that a solid-Red state like ND could even be close at this point.
45 - RJ Elliott
Ohio tied, with the momentum in favor of McCain. But how many votes did ACORN manage to steal in the early voting?
46 - Dr Dreadful
Next you're going to throw us a poll that says DC's tightening...
47 - Heloise
Breaking: Obama wins 15 McCain 6--in some resort town: Dixville, Knox, somewhere on East coast. That is purely republican registered. They voted for Nixon over Kennedy 6-0. But JFK won. They picked a lot of winners, because most of the POTUS have been Republican.
Heloise
48 - Jet
RJ, before you get too excited, you might want to look at this... Click Here.
49 - M
Considering I live in VA and know how VA works, I think it's going to Obama this year.
Northern Virginia "Fake Virginia" is blue, tried and true. More people LIVE in Fake Virginia.
You also have to factor in the high black population in "Real Virginia" as well.
And PA? Nah, PA is blue, and has been for YEARS. Ain't gonna go to McCain.
50 - RJ Elliott
No, DD, I'm trying to be realistic here. :-/
The two main problems with my prediction are Virginia and Pennsylvania. I'm fairly confident about everything else; in fact, McCain may even be able to win in Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota, although I still believe it's unlikely.
Virginia is about 4 points in favor of Obama right now in the public polling, but it's moving towards McCain. Now, Virginia is a Red state that hasn't gone for a Dem in like 44 years. I understand that the demographics of the state have changed in recent years, but I still believe it's gonna be damn close.
Pennsylvania is still a long-shot. Current polling has Obama ahead by about 6 points. But with the recently-released audio about how Obama seeks to bankrupt the coal industry, and with Jack Murtha in trouble in his re-election race, and with the fact that Hillary whipped Obama here in the primary, and the fact that PA was ground zero for the whole "bitter clingers" controversy, I still believe McCain has a realistic shot of winning this one by the most narrow of margins.
And, quite frankly, he needs to, if he wants to become the next President. Without PA, he's most likely screwed.
51 - Dave Nalle
HOLY SHIT! Obama only up by 3 in Minnesota???
Up by 3 is down by 3 when they count the votes. Bad news for Al Frankenstein.
Dave
52 - Jet
If you run your cursor over the states you'll get the latest poll results, and I consider CNN pretty reliable...
53 - Dave Nalle
The two main problems with my prediction are Virginia and Pennsylvania. I'm fairly confident about everything else; in fact, McCain may even be able to win in Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota, although I still believe it's unlikely.
I think Nevada is a good bet for McCain. The others not so much.
Virginia is about 4 points in favor of Obama right now in the public polling, but it's moving towards McCain.
4 points up for Obama is 2 points up for McCain when people get into the privacy of the voting booth, especially in Virginia.
Dave
54 - Jet
I understand in Kentucky and Alabama, McCain is in danger because some are writing in joe the plumber!
55 - Dave Nalle
Not a problem. Most of those people can't ready anyway and probably would have voted Obama by mistake.
Dave
56 - RJ Elliott
2% of Obama voters are supporting their candidate based on the premise that he's qualified/experienced. 20% of McCain voters are supporting their candidate based on those reasons.
HOPE. CHANGE. UNQUALIFIED. INEXPERIENCED.
57 - Jet
By the same token only 21% strongly support McCain, while 63% strongly support Obama. Another aspect of that is a large majority are soft on McCain because they don't want to see a President McCain in charge of nuclear arsenals and foreign policy.
58 - Dave Nalle
Jet, your last begs the question of how many are voting AGAINST Obama rather than for McCain. My guess it's a hell of a lot.
Dave
59 - Jet
Maybe in Texas Dave... Maybe in Texas
60 - RJ Elliott
I've noticed that you like to repeat yourself, Jet, you like to repeat yourself ...
61 - Jet
Some of what I say bears repeating...
...I'm just not arogant about it
(:^p~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
62 - RJ Elliott
So, just in case Obama wins, I'm curious how easy it is to emigrate to the Czech Republic? Do I actually need to learn Czech, or can I just use hand signals and talk really loud?
63 - Jet
Oh you'll just love it there, the pastries are to die for and the soccer players are really hot!
64 - RJ Elliott
Jet, if you were any gayer, you'd be the Congressman from the 4th congressional district of Massachusetts.
65 - Clavos
RJ,
Don't know about the Czech Republic, but I've been selling boats in Croatia and Slovenia for a couple of years now, and have been over there a few times on business.
The Dalmatian coast is gorgeous; Split, Croatia is a beautiful resort on the Adriatic Sea that holds its own with towns like St. Tropez and Monaco. Ljubljana, Slovenia, though inland, is on the Sava River. It's the Slovenian capital and a very cosmopolitan, sophisticated city crawling with delicious young women.
66 - zingzing
rj, if you fuck with jet, i will have your babies and kill them. in a car. with your mother. but seriously, that joke, the one you made, it sucked. i hope you lose tomorrow. i pee pee on your... what do you value? well, i pee pee on that.
67 - Jet
You may not believe this, but I'm not really as swishy as you might think... I just like to have fun on occasion in the comments section.
68 - Jet
The nude beaches are great too... I'm told
69 - Jet
Surplus Russian nuclear subs Clavos?
70 - zingzing
election day. the day we all dream of. who will be the victor? your ignorant father or your drugged-up mother?
71 - Arch Conservative
"Breaking: Obama wins 15 McCain 6--in some resort town: Dixville, Knox, somewhere on East coast. That is purely republican registered. They voted for Nixon over Kennedy 6-0. But JFK won. They picked a lot of winners, because most of the POTUS have been Republican."
[Personal attack deleted by Comments Editor]
The town is called Dixville Notch, not Dixville, Knox and it's not "somewhere on the East coast, it's in the northern part of my home state of New Hampshire. Also...it's not a resort town. It's a tiny little town in the middle of nowhere. Lastly, not everyone there is a registered Republican.
72 - Arch Conservative
your ignorant father or your drugged-up mother?
those are just two examples of the average Obama voter zing.....
you forgot
the high on mushrooms self righteous college student who feels justified in lecturing you on how the world works because he took a poli sci class taught by some leftover flower child relic from the sixties who's incapable of dealing with people his own age who don't share his views so he's hiding out on a college campus where he can spew his leftist propaganda to 18 year old kids that don't know dick about how the world really works....
I understand Obama has been touting this block of supporters..
73 - Jet
Soundl like someone needs arch supports?
74 - Ruvy
RJ,
Interesting read. The only problem I see with your set-up is that there are real battleground states. IMHO, any state that is within one percentage point or less for either major candidate should be a battleground state.
Of course, then you wouldn't have that counter-intuitive headline, would you? IMHO, you'r putting your balls on the table and there are so many people with hatchets around....
But, like I said, interesting read, and interesting comments too.
Jet, you're several years too late for the used Russian sub market. The big fat drunk isn't stumbling the Kremlin anymore. He's dead. His replacement isn't putting Russian subs on e-bay....
If things go bad enough, though, you may be able to bid on used American subs.
75 - bliffle
Clavos says:
"The Dalmatian coast is gorgeous; Split, Croatia is a beautiful resort on the Adriatic Sea that holds its own with towns like St. Tropez and Monaco. Ljubljana, Slovenia, though inland, is on the Sava River. It's the Slovenian capital and a very cosmopolitan, sophisticated city crawling with delicious young women."
Indeed, it's true!
Almost irresistibly attractive. But as my friend A, who was born and raised in Split, says, it's great until you need a doctor.
But I bet that within a few years it will become the New Riviera.