Four years ago, I offered my predictions on the presidential election. And I was pretty darn accurate. (A helluva lot better than those exit polls, amiright?)
This year, I'll offer my predictions on the presidential race, and also include my predictions for the Senate and House as well.
Since it's trendy, first I've got a map of the electoral vote in the popular colors, followed by a detailed breakdown by state and my predictions for the House and Senate races.
Here's the presidential race first, vote breakdown by state:
Alabama 9 - McCain 59, Obama 38, Others 3
Alaska 3 - McCain 55, Obama 39, Others 6
Arizona 10 - McCain 51, Obama 46, Others 3
Arkansas 6 - McCain 53, Obama 44, Others 3
California 55 - Obama 57, McCain 37, Others 6
Colorado 9 - Obama 50, McCain 47, Others 3
Connecticut 7 - Obama 57, McCain 41, Others 2
Delaware 3 - Obama 61, McCain 36, Others 3
DC 3 - Obama 93, McCain 5, Others 2
Florida 27 - McCain 48.5, Obama 47.5, Others 4
Georgia 15 - McCain 48, Obama 45, Others 7
Hawaii 4 - Obama 69, McCain 28, Others 3
Idaho 4 - McCain 65, Obama 31, Others 4
llinois 21 - Obama 60, McCain 37, Others 3
Indiana 11 - McCain 49, Obama 48, Others 3
Iowa 7 - Obama 54, McCain 42, Others 4
Kansas 6 - McCain 57, Obama 41, Others 2
Kentucky 8 - McCain 55, Obama 43, Others 2
Louisiana 9 - McCain 54, Obama 42, Others 4
Maine 4 - Obama 54, McCain 41, Others 5
Maryland 10 - Obama 58, McCain 38, Others 4
Massachusetts 12 - Obama 57, McCain 39, Others 4
Michigan 17 - Obama 53, McCain 43, Others 4
Minnesota 10 - Obama 53, McCain 41, Others 6
Mississippi 6 - McCain 55, Obama 43, Others 2
Missouri 11 - McCain 49, Obama 48, Others 3
Montana 3 - McCain 51, Obama 46, Others 3
Nebraska 5 - McCain 58, Obama 39, Others 3
Nevada 5 - Obama 48.1, McCain 47.9, Others 4
New Hampshire 4 - Obama 52, McCain 45, Others 3
New Jersey 15 - Obama 56, McCain 41, Others 3
New Mexico 5 - Obama 51, McCain 46, Others 3
New York 31 - Obama 60, McCain 35, Others 5
North Carolina 15 - McCain 49, Obama 48, Others 3
North Dakota 3 - McCain 50, Obama 48, Others 2
Ohio 20 - McCain 49, Obama 48, Others 3
Oklahoma 7 - McCain 61, Obama 36, Others
Oregon 7 - Obama 57, McCain 38, Others 5
Pennsylvania 21 - McCain 49.1, Obama 48.9, Others 2
Rhode Island 4 - Obama 59, McCain 38, Others 3
South Carolina 8 - McCain 56, Obama 42, Others 2
South Dakota 3 - McCain 54, Obama 44, Others 2
Tennessee 11 - McCain 55, Obama 42, Others 3
Texas 34 - McCain 54, Obama 43, Others 3
Utah 5 - McCain 62, Obama 34, Others 4
Vermont 3 - Obama 60, McCain 36, Others 4
Virginia 13 - McCain 48.6, Obama 48.4, Others 3
Washington 11 - Obama 55, McCain 41, Others 4
West Virginia 5 - McCain 56, Obama 41, Others 3
Wisconsin 10 - Obama 54, McCain 42, Others 4
Wyoming 3 - McCain 60, Obama 36, Others 4
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Dave Nalle
Wow, RJ. Your results are remarkably similar to mine. And for the record, even though my article isn't published yet, I did write it before yours made it into the BC queue.
For those who aren't aware, RJ did a remarkably accurate job with his past predictions. I wonder if the fact that we agree means that he's lost it or that I've struck gold in my analysis of the flaws in the polling.
Dave
2 - Glenn Contrarian
RJ -
Wishing won't make it so.
But Republicans do have an ace in the hole...the Ace of Diebold. That's the only way McCain will win...but that's the way I think it will work out.
BUT if you (and I) are wrong, stand by for a modest amount of...dare I call it gloating?...on the 5th.
Hey - the Latinos (but NOT the Mexicans) have 'Cinco de Mayo' (only in America, not in Mexico).
If Obama wins, maybe we'll have, um,
"mwezi wa kumi na moja Tano" - That's Swahili for 5th of November! (I think)
3 - RJ Elliott
Thanks for the quick publish, Dave. And I'm glad to hear that someone else is predicting something similar...
4 - Dave Nalle
I think Glenn has shown us pretty clearly that the Demos have their excuses already lined up and ready to go, despite the fact that Diebold was cleared of every accusation in 2004 and has fixed their security vulnerabilities.
Oh, RJ. I notice you didn't break down the electoral votes by district in Maine and Nebraska. I think McCain will take upstate Maine - any thoughts?
Dave
5 - RJ Elliott
Dave,
It's possible, but I don't think it's going to happen. And there's always the possibility that Obama will take the Nebraska congressional district that includes Omaha, but I don't believe that's going to happen either.
So I think McCain gets all of Nebraska's EC votes, and Obama gets all of Maine's EC votes. (That certainly simplifies things, too.)
6 - bliffle
Dave has simply rendered himself hysterically irrelevant with his latest contrivances.
The reps have demonstrated willingness to cook the results, but IMO the Obama margin will be too large.
7 - Franco
RJ,
Did you base this prediction on all the same factors you used in your 2004 prediction, or are there other factors you found necessary to employ this time?
8 - Eric
I think you're right on. Except that I think the spread in FL and OH will be more than 1%. VA is the one that will be closest. Just curious, did you include any specific weighting based on the "PUMA factor"?
Also, based on your predictions, I take it you're also predicting a drawn-out contested fight in the courts too?
9 - RJ Elliott
Franco,
Not really, because there are different factors to take into account this time around. (This election has no incumbent, for example.)
I didn't have a specific formula, but here are some factors that I took into account:
- Obama tends to under-perform on election day compared to his position in the polls (or at least that was the case in the primaries).
- Undecideds are more likely to go to McCain (the "safe" choice) in the final days and hours, in my opinion.
- Most of the public polls are probably over-sampling Democrats, which distorts the results somewhat. I believe the polling models are pretty much busted in this election year, for myriad reasons.
- A small "Bradley Effect" may play a role in pushing some close states into the McCain column, particularly in states with more racially heterogeneous populations (like Virginia).
- The Hispanic vote is going to win it for Obama in the states of Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
10 - Steve-o
Democrats/liberals are the funniest people on earth, and the slowest learners. If the Messiah wins, the disappointment after the honeymoon will be lovely to watch.
I'm fine either way, I know better than to depend on government for anything. My goal is to adjust to any outcome and turn it to my advantage. If McCain wins, I'm starting a new business to add to my current two endeavors (They don't take much time to run at this point).
If Obama wins, I'm expanding my semi-retirement, going tax-free with my investments and enjoying life that way.
It's a win-win for me, even though an Obama victory will be a loss for the USA. I'll be sorry to see that happen for all those still trying to make it in life, but that's the way it goes sometimes. Adjust and move on.
11 - zingzing
wow! you've got mccain winning EVERY battleground state! imagine! the latest polls i see show obama ahead in (at the very least) four of those by at least 3% and another two that are tied. those are the most conservative numbers i could find. so mccain would have to perform pretty damn well nearly EVERYWHERE in order to win. it's not that i don't ever see that happening, it's just that i wouldn't bet money on it.
12 - Cannonshop
If "The Hill" had won the primary, and McCain won the GOP primary, I'd vote Hillary before I'd vote McCain (also, if she'd won, it'd probably be Giuliani or Powell as McCain's Veep, not Palin.)
It's not that I like Hillary, but she's practical pol enough that she probably wouldn't push things that already failed once before.
and she's less of a Lib than McCain.
13 - Dr Dreadful
Interesting prediction, RJ. I disagree with it spectacularly.
Barring the odd mini-surprise (a Ron Paul win in Montana, anyone?), 42 states have their communal minds already made up. That leaves eight battleground states that will decide this thing. The stark fact is that McCain has to win ALL OF THEM to clinch the presidency.
Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana, despite polls which have looked good for Obama over the past few weeks, are probably going to stick with recent form and plump for McCain. I said earlier in the campaign that there was no way Obama was going to win Florida and I'll stick my neck out and predict that that's still the case. Virginia looks very good for Barack but I won't be too gobsmacked if it flips at the last moment. Ohio really is anyone's guess, again, at this point.
But really, RJ, there is absolutely no way on this Earth that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. It's a blue state. Even in '04 when the Democrats fielded the Candidate from Hell, and it looked in the last set of polls as if Bush might just sneak it in PA, Kerry still won.
I know you listed many factors that might help McCain do the seemingly impossible, but allow me just to share a cautionary tale based on one: the 'safe choice' effect.
In the UK general election of 1992, Neil Kinnock's Labour Party was poised to oust John Major's Conservatives from power. The nation seemed to have wearied after thirteen years of Thatcherism, and virtually every opinion poll in the run-up to the election gave Labour a healthy lead.
They lost.
After the post-mortem, the pollsters came to the conclusion that the main reason they'd got it so horribly wrong was that 'safe choice' effect: enough people, in the privacy of the voting booth, had decided Labour was too great a risk and plumped for the devil they knew.
Fast forward five years, and the Conservatives, trailing in the opinion polls once again, were counting on that same effect come election day. They campaigned vigorously on that theme: you can't, they told the public, trust Labour.
It was a landslide: the worst defeat the Conservatives had ever suffered in a general election.
The electorate, having given the Tories another chance and perceiving that they hadn't taken it, finally decided that they'd had enough after all.
I see similarities between '92 and Bush's comeback win in '04 (he was the safe choice). We'll know (hopefully!) within 48 hours whether '08 (McCain as the safe choice, but with the eight-years-of-Bush monkey on his shoulder) echoes the UK general election of '97.
14 - Matthew T. Sussman
I have the Redskins covering.
...wait...
15 - Dr Dreadful
So Matt, did the NFL deliberately schedule Steelers-Redskins for Monday night just to keep us all on tenterhooks that little bit longer...?
16 - Matthew T. Sussman
Yes, because not only do they predict the president almost every time, but McCain and Obama are going to be interviewed by journalistic shining beacon Chris Berman at halftime.
17 - Jet
Alabama-McCain
Alaska-McCain
Arizona-McCain
Arkansas-McCain
California-Obama
Colorado-Obama
Connecticut-Obama
Delaware-Obama
D.C.-Obama
Florida-McCain
Georgia-McCain
Hawaii-Obama
Idaho-McCain
Illinois-Obama
Indiana-Obama
Iowa-McCain
Kansas-McCain
Kentucky-McCain
Louisiana-McCain
Maine-Obama
Maryland-Obama
Massachusetts-Obama
Michigan-Obama
Minnesota-Obama
Mississippi-McCain
Missouri-McCain
Montana-McCain
Nebraska-McCain-3 Obama-2
Nevada-McCain
New Hampshire-Obama
New Jersey-Obama
New Mexico-McCain
New York-Obama
North Carolina-Obama
North Dakota-McCain
Ohio-Obama
Oklahoma-McCain
Oregon-Obama
Pennsylvania-Obama
Rhode Island-Obama
South Carolina-McCain
South Dakota-McCain
Tennessee-McCain
Texas-McCain
Utah-McCain
Vermont-Obama
Virginia-McCain
Washington-Obama
West Virginia-Obama
Wisconsin-Obama
Wyoming-McCain
Obama-308
McCain-230
18 - RJ Elliott
Interesting predictions, Jet. Thanks for posting.
You might want to take a closer look at how Nebraska awards EC votes, though. Unless you think Obama will win two of the three congressional districts, but still lose to McCain statewide.
Also, I think you're dead wrong about WV. And I don't see Iowa going for McCain. And I think if McCain wins VA, then he's got NC in the bag.
19 - Jet
I screwed up labeling West Virginia and Iowa-They should go to McCain... sorry. However the EC totals are correct.
I used a website where you can click the states to change their color to get the EC totals, but every 2-3 minutes the damned thing would reset so I had to type fast (not easy with a shattered right arm)
As I said, the EC totals are right it's the labeling that was done quickly and innacurately.
Jet
20 - Jet
Perhaps Doc can fix it for me?
21 - Jet
No, come to think of it I can see Iowa falling to McCain.
Basically I gave the blue states that had early voting to Obama as I expect more working class and blacks to vote early. Here in Ohio the wait on early voting lines was up to 8 hours with an average of 5.
I think the economy is the biggest factor in the rust belt and I expect it all to go to Obama, which is why I gave Indian to him.
All reports from North Carolina say a massive movement toward Obama.
There's also the "godless" negative ads that may swing votes against the GOP
22 - Glenn Contrarian
Dave -
Diebold an 'excuse'?
REMEMBER all the PROVEN Republican efforts at voter suppression and election fraud in the other topic?
And how, when ALL the Democratic fraud was added up, even without disputing ANY of it (I was able to dispute almost ALL of it), it amounted to less than ONE-HUNDREDTH the suppression and fraud the Republicans have been committing.
NOT an excuse, Dave. A REASON.
23 - Dave Nalle
Any chance of Obama getting WV disappeared over the weekend when his quotes to the SF Chronicle broke publicly. I'm pretty sure that coal miners will turn out en masse to make sure there's still a coal mining industry in the future. There's a fair chance it will cost Obama Ohio and Pennsylvania as well.
But really, RJ, there is absolutely no way on this Earth that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. It's a blue state. Even in '04 when the Democrats fielded the Candidate from Hell, and it looked in the last set of polls as if Bush might just sneak it in PA, Kerry still won.
As I said above, if they had time to do another poll it would show McCain gaining at least 5 points in Pennsylvania because of Obama's SF Chron gaffes.
But he doesn't even have to win Pennsylvania. By my calculation he can win without Pennsylvania if he wins Ohio instead, as detailed in my election predictions.
Dave
24 - Jet
Somehow I don't see him "running the table" with the toss up states...
25 - Glen Boyd
Wow...predicting a win for McCain. Very ballsy RJ. I hope that you get this wrong of course. But I have to admit that some of the over-confidence out there among the Dems scares me a little. Guess we'll both find out soon enough, huh?
-Glen