As the November elections loom ever closer, American voters, war weary and wanting change, still seem unsure about the Democrats as an option. In a September 2 Associated Press article, David Espo calls it "the campaign with no margin for Republican error."
This warning comes at a time when the Republican message machine seems to have developed a tin ear. Republicans in D.C. and across the country know they’re going to lose seats, and Democrats know they’re going to win some, but few are willing to predict how many.
The Bush administration message is only as powerful as the president's prestige, and survey after survey demonstrates problems for the Republicans. According to Charles Franklin's Political Arithmetik, the President's approval ratings continue to languish below the magical 40% number, which Franklin calls "the disaster range."
In mid-July, a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies poll looked at the 50 most competitive House seats. Ten are held by Democrats, 40 by Republicans, and when the pollsters asked for voter preference by candidate name, Republicans got only 43% of the vote — this in districts that went for George Bush by 58% two years ago.
"The results are breathtaking," Greenberg writes. "Democrats are in a very strong position to hold virtually all their seats, while the Republicans could readily lose most of theirs. Clearly, the probability of a Democratic takeover in November is... more likely than not."
Of concern to both parties is that Americans are increasingly frustrated with the political system. A recent Rasmussen survey found that a plurality of voters in each of 32 states agree the political system in the U.S. is "badly broken." Percentages range from a high of 63% in Vermont to 47% in Nebraska, but all point in the same direction.
Republican Strategy
It’s clear the Republican national strategy is to distract voters from the one-year anniversary of Katrina and domestic economic concerns, and focus on the War in Iraq and the war against terrorism. In numerous speeches over the past couple of weeks, Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld have tried to frame the debate as a choice between continuing the war or Nazi-style appeasement.
In an article on CQ Politics, Craig Crawford noticed “a new variation in the attack on Democratic war opponents as "'cut-and-run' wimps. Citing no more than a couple of articles by liberal writers — none of whom is even associated with the Democratic Party — this new argument holds that Bush’s political opponents do not even believe that the terrorists pose a threat."
Article comments
1 - gonzo marx
well done, Mark me boyo...
/golfclap
... and there really ain't much i can add to the spot on analysis, except to say yer gonna huurt yerself bending over backwards so far trying to remain impartial
but that's a *good thing*
to me, from what i've been hearing and reading up here in the Northeast all seems to revolve around one very specific Thing...
competance...
and it appears that since the whole Schiavo thing, Katrina, and around 100 dead Iraqis a day... along with Libby's indictment, Safavian's conviction.. and the looming Threat of Abramhoff... there's a little bit of everything for the american Voter to ponder
like i said a while ago... single Party rule leads away from Accountability, which heads right for corruption (anybody keeping track of the Alaskan GOP imploding in upcoming oil scandal? FBI raided a bunch of offices this past week)
on and on
all i can say, is to express my fervent Hope that americans do the Right Thing come November...
vote gridlock!
Excelsior?
2 - Dave Nalle
All it will take is two smart moves from Bush before November to reverse the downward trend. One to get the public's attention and another to make them think it's not a fluke. Something dramatic and a little controversial would be good. And a balance of foreign and domestic policy would be nice too. Like let's say a major new tax reform initiative - everyone hates taxes. And then killing bin Laden.
It could happen...
Dave
3 - Bliffle
Sic transit gloria mundai. Only a couple years ago republican thinkers were puffed up with ideas of an ongoing semi-permanent majority.
4 - Mark Schannon
Gonzo, you're right, laddie, I am wearing a body brace from all the twitching at being impartial, but fear not, I'm about to let loose with a full-blown diatribe. I can't take this fairness shit anymore!
Bliffle--the sad thing is that the Dems thought the same way back in the 70s & early 80s.
In Jameson Veritas
5 - gonzo marx
Dave sez...
*All it will take is two smart moves from Bush before November to reverse the downward trend. One to get the public's attention and another to make them think it's not a fluke. Something dramatic and a little controversial would be good.*
oh yeah... here's the GOP strategy in a nutshell...
"get the public's attention" that would be *distract* from the Issues at hand..."Something dramatic and a little controversial"... there's the *distort*
same old same old...
now we get to the real nut..."Like let's say a major new tax reform initiative "
cuz it ain't like there are REAL fucking problems to fix... what we need, according to the GOP types, are to shrink Federal revenue , while we have about 8 billion dollars a month being thrown away in Iraq... are MORE tax cuts
how about, instead.. we stop allowing imports to come in tax free from nations where they slap taxes on our goods going there?
China adds 10-20%, sometimes more on our products there, but we charge them NOTHING in taxes for their imports here...
i have yet to find ANY "fair trade" policies that are actually fair to the US...
so, start there, getting MORE income for our Nation, rather than the typical GOP strategy of "starving the beast"
on the other hand, it woudl not suprise me in the least if the "october suprise" frmo the GOP woudl actually be *bin Laden*... or at least a report (unsubstantiated) that he was *killed*
we will see...
Excelsior?
6 - Mark Schannon
Unfortunately, Dave's probably right, although I wonder given the continuing deterioration in Iraq. It is turning into a civil war and Rummy & Co. haven't a clue how to deal with it. (Either do I, but I'm not Defense Sec.)
But people are gullible if nothing else. What did Twain say, "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people." Or was that Barnum?
It's hard to even get worked up over it anymore. Too depressing. We're surrounded by political midgets with tiny little voices that sound like mice being stepped on...some wear blue, some wear red...but you can't tell what the colors stand for...hmmmm...I feel the beginning of an article here.
In Jameson Veritas
7 - Chani
I think people have it wrong. sure this boondoggle in Iraq isn't helping the GOP - most particularly their continued denials, but most of us Democrats do understand that pulling out of Iraq is not an option (save for some noisy vocal lefties somewhere in Vermont of course). But that really doesn't excuse the GOP from it's patent incompetence in the way it's "managed" Iraq in entirety.
I'm glad to see more Mormons looking at Democrats -and also running for office as Democrats. (Granted I'm a Mormon and a Democrat and would be). But the primary reason is that the biggest threat to the US is really NOT Islamic fundamentalism - rather it is the wholesale destruction of the middle-class that is a product of GOP monopoly.
Have a great day!
8 - Chani
By the way, I just want to casually add that these posts make me so glad I became a Mormon. The folks here are actually thinking people who have a firm grip and understanding of the country's central issues.
You do me proud.
9 - gonzo marx
ok..now i'm confused...more so than normal...
what does BC have to do with Mormons?
not that it matters, mind you.. but with the exception of Chani in this Thread... i can think of no "regular" contributer who has put themselves out there as a Mormon...
back on Topic...
well now Mark me boyo, i don't Doubt that there will be some attempt at an "October Suprise" from the Rovian Horde (pat pend), but i don't know if they can pull off enough to save the House
the Senate, probably... that one is way too tough to call right now.. tho events in Alaska recently, among other faux pas that occured this week past have managed to make it even tighter...
this wekk end is crucial in the elction cycle, since it is the last 3 day holiday before the actual election when families/friends gather in large numbers... some strategists swear that most voters really become actively engaged at this point in time... the rest either have their minds made up already, or will walk into the votnig booth clueless
so it's the Independants who count from here on out... and now's about the Time that they start talking around the bar-b-que, and the Conversartions will continue around the water-coolers, in the bar, homes, etc...
hopefully the Nation has Awakened, and things will get better...
hopefully...
Excelsior?
10 - Mark Schannon
Oh, Gonzo, Gonzo, Gonzo...hopefully the Nation has Awakened, and things will get better...
How sad. The great Gonzo has slipped into the myth of Mauritania where people begin to believe that progress is possible, that humans are capable of rational thought, and that all Scotch is single malt.
Snap out of it man! We're talking not just your life, but your reputation.
And I don't know about the Mormon thing either. But Chani's cool, so it's o.k.
In Jameson Veritas
11 - gonzo marx
hey now.. i never said anything definitive
just Hope
i can Dream, can't i?
and Scotch is single malt, by definition... when you blend, you get whisky.. like that stuff you imbibe
but i digress
Excelsior?
12 - Snarkattack
This is a bit worrying: "The other Democrat said, “One thing about the Democrats. We’re always in disarray until about three weeks before the election. That’s nothing new. But we usually seem to pull it together.”"
Geez, even if that's true, you'd think it'd be smarter to keep your mouth shut about it rather than go around admitting it. I cringe for that individual.
13 - Mark Schannon
Oh, well, if it's just a faint dream, o.k.
But, Johnnie Walkier, Dewers, etc. are blended Scotches...whiskey is the generic term for scotch, bourbon, Irish, rye, etc.
Or am I wrong??? (hmmmmmm?)
14 - Clavos
Nope, you're right, Mark.
15 - gonzo marx
no.. he's wrong...
those are blended whiskys...
a scotch can only be single malt, otherwise it's blended whisky...by definition
yeah...some things try and call themselves other than what they are, but the definition is still single malt...
and Mark... it's my quixotic nature... i gotta at least acknowledge the Dream...
i occaisionally do get accused of certain types of Idealism... silly of me, i know
but it's a fair cop
Excelsior?
16 - Dave Nalle
now we get to the real nut..."Like let's say a major new tax reform initiative "
cuz it ain't like there are REAL fucking problems to fix... what we need, according to the GOP types, are to shrink Federal revenue , while we have about 8 billion dollars a month being thrown away in Iraq... are MORE tax cuts
I actually said 'tax reform' not 'tax reduction'. They're not exactly the same thing. But face it, people do like tax cuts. They like them a lot. And the ones who like them the most are the ones who go out and actually vote.
Dave
17 - Dave Nalle
ut the primary reason is that the biggest threat to the US is really NOT Islamic fundamentalism - rather it is the wholesale destruction of the middle-class that is a product of GOP monopoly.
Huh? How is advancing more of the middle class than ever before into a higher income bracked destroying them?
dave
18 - gonzo marx
as for the outright Lie that the average american worker is doing better...
try some of the links on this page here... to see the actuality of it...
for the last 5 years, american workers have increased Production every year, while their real earnings have declined an average of .5% per year
follow the link, and pick and Article... the Studies are all there, all using the governments own data.. and from varying Sources of news as well as independant researches crunching the numbers...
so much for that bit of bullshit
Excelsior?
19 - Dave Nalle
As I pointed out on another thread, the article you cite is just wrong. If you go to the government data it tells a different story. I'd critique the article specifically, but your link just takes me to google news.
Dave
20 - gonzo marx
the link takes you an entire page og links supplied by Google news
each of those links is an Article from varying publishers dealing with the same topic
and each of those Articles express the same set of figures from varying sources... all of which show that adjusted gross wages have been delining an average of .5% over the last five years, while worker productivity has risen over 3% for each fo the same years...
i'll leave it to the Readers to scope out the studies in those Articles, all of which use the governments own figures for the basis fo their study
and each Source is independant of any government or partisan agencies
i used the entire page, so the Reader could pick whcih news source/articles they liked.... since some woudl discount the validity of soem newspapers, but accept the data frmo others
since the data is the SAME in each of the Articles, the news source was immaterial
just the basic Facts
have Fun , folks...
21 - Dave Nalle
Yes, Gonzo. Worker productivity is up nicely. What does that have to do with wages?
Plus the wage information you are offering is incorrect. If you go to the BLS you'll see that wages are up 15.33% in the past 5 years. If you adjust for inflation they're up about 1%. Slightly less than the previous five years, but still up.
You can find this data yourself by using this form.
Dave
22 - Mohjho
Definitely like to see a little balance of power on the political front, voting rights enforced, neocon agenda buried, and a little more of an open society to help insure accountability and efficiency.
More of the same should not be an option.
23 - Nancy
Gonzo, you forgot the other GOP strategy which has worked for them twice now, mainly to steal the elections. If they hadn't resorted to smear tactics as well as outright election fraud in the past two elections, they would never have gotten in or stayed in. Having succeeded twice now, and gotten away with it for various reasons (mainly that there are too many Republicans in congress to allow any investigation of abuse or fraud) I'm sure they won't hesitate to do it again...and again...and again.
24 - Jet in Columbus
and fumbles and bumbles and fumbles and bumbles and fumbles and bumbles and fumbles and bumbles and fumbles and bumbles and fumbles
There's no place like home
there's no place like home