The pre-election and exit polls are frequently wrong. Vote for whomever you wish, but vote (once and legally)!
We have all heard of the Bradley Effect — the polls suggest that there will be more votes cast for Senator Obama than actually will be: Senator Obama is Black, and since some poll respondents do not wish to be considered racist they conceal their true intentions. Although difficult if not impossible to quantify rigorously, there is probably something to the theory.…
Article comments
— go to most recent comments26 - Dan(Miller)
It now appears that in Ohio,
It is a shame that it took an en banc order of the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals to get this process moving.Ohio is one of the closer states, Could it be possible that fraudulent registrations have affected the polls?
One in three ain't too bad. Hell, even one in two wouldn't be too bad. It could, I guess, be worse.
Occasionally, but not often, I wish that I were an active, rather than a recovering, attorney. $$$$$$$$$$$.
Dan(Miller)
27 - Baronius
Bliffle, those who think that there was massive voter fraud in Florida in 2000 are suffering from the irrational political rage we're talking about on another thread.
28 - Pablo
Dave said:
"As for your claims about Ohio and FLorida, you're repeating a popular belief held by many on the left for which there is no factual evidence. Show me proof of Republican fraud in either of those elections"
Then Baronius said:
"Bliffle, those who think that there was massive voter fraud in Florida in 2000 are suffering from the irrational political rage we're talking about on another thread."
What typical right wing nonsense. It is a public and proven fact that Florida former Secretary of State Katherine Harris, along with then Governor Jeb Bush, hired a company called Choicepoint to cull the voter lists of convicted felons, that were not eligible to vote at the time. Problem is, is that they culled over 40,000 eligible non felons with that hit list, most of them African-Americans. You may not call this voter fraud, but I do, and it indeed caused the election to go to
Bush.
What you right wingers would rather do is to take some poor unfortunate signature gatherers for registration that were lying to increase their meager earnings, that have quite frankly nothing to do with any real or persuasive type of voter fraud, unlike in Florida where they clearly stole the election.
Google Choicepoint AND Jeb Bush AND election and felon.
Nice try boys, but your wrong, as USUAL.
29 - DaveNalle
Pablo, making voters meet the eligibility requirements laid out in the state law is NOT voter fraud. Caging lists are legal. If you move and don't update your address don't expect to be allowed to vote. Plus your number for people mistaken for felons is ridiculously inflated. The ChoicePoint list only had 8000 names on it and nowhere near 40,000 voters were rejected. Plus, under Florida law they were allowed to make provisional votes so theoretically no one was actually denied a vote.
Dave
30 - El Bicho
"If you move and don't update your address don't expect to be allowed to vote."
So then you could vote in the last place you were registered, and if you can't get to your polling place, you could fill out a provisional ballot. That's the way it works in CA
31 - Clavos
Also in FL, EB.
The fact is, Pablo, both the 2000 and 2004 FL elections have been investigated to a fare thee well by evrybody under the sun, and no evicence of fraud that would stand up in court has ever turned up.
Give it a rest, bubba.
32 - handyguy
Is it so impossible for our Republican friends to believe that they might actually lose an election on the merits? That the voters actually prefer the Democrat on the issues?
Scrambling to explain this, they have to conflate the [unrelated] Acorn and Ohio stories into some sort of massive fraud conspiracy, diabolically designed to thwart democracy.
Some of you, I suspect, are actually intelligent enough to spend your time more constructively, if you so chose.
Acorn [not a monolithic entity with a single purpose, but a network of many local chapters with multiple areas of work, 99% of it selfless and admirable] claims to have registered 1.3 million voters since the last election. Even if 1 in 10 were invalid [probably much higher than the real number], that's 130,000 invalid registrations. Not votes! Registrations! In the entire country of more than 100 million voters.
Voter registration irregularities [intentional or not] aren't the same as vote fraud. And as for Ohio, if any of those 200,000 are not allowed to vote because of a spelling error, shame on the state officials who do it and shame on you for cheering them on.
Nalle, Dan et al have created a crisis and a villain that don't exist. Any genuinely balanced reading of the facts about voter registration, Acorn, etc [not recycled conspiracy-mongering hot air] deflates these non-stories just about completely.
33 - Cannonshop
Acorn [not a monolithic entity with a single purpose, but a network of many local chapters with multiple areas of work, 99% of it selfless and admirable] claims to have registered 1.3 million voters since the last election. Even if 1 in 10 were invalid [probably much higher than the real number], that's 130,000 invalid registrations. Not votes! Registrations! In the entire country of more than 100 million voters.
A "network" that's got prosecutions in multiple states on-going for the same crime, Handy, and at the same TIME. (that is, simultaneously).
If it's an isolated incident, you'd expect one, maybe two in a year, not FIFTEEN.
34 - Dr Dreadful
As a wise man once said, Seek and ye shall find.
Who's been doing the seeking here? Who doesn't do well when voter turnout is high?
35 - Pablo
Hey again Bubbas (Davey and his boy wonder Clavy,
According to Wikepedia on the company Choicepoint:
"In the aftermath of the vote, the owner of DBT Online, ChoicePoint,was accused of cooperating with Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris, and Florida Elections Unit Chief Clay Roberts, in voter fraud, conspiracy involving the central voter file. It was also accused of having a bias in favor of the Republican Party, for knowingly using inaccurate data, and for racial discrimination.
The allegations charge that 57,700 people (15% of the list), primarily Democrats of African-American and Hispanic descent, were incorrectly listed as felons and thus barred from voting. Reports estimate that 80% of these people would have voted, and that 90% of those who would have voted, would have voted for Al Gore.[24] Other allegations include listing voters as felons for alleged crimes said to have been committed several years in the future. The official (and disputed) margin of victory, in the election, was 537 votes."
Only someone such as yourself Davey, with your convoluted ideas of what constitutes logic and fairness would categorize this travesty as LEGAL. You should be outraged, instead you would rather use your limited mental abilities to attack ACORN, which obviously happened due to poor schmucks cheating on the registration forms to get a few more measly bucks outta the deal. Or perhaps you think that thousands upon thousands of fraudulent Mickey Mouse voters will be hop-skipping across precinct lines and hopping over to other states to vote fraudulantly. Sure bubba.
Oh and Clavy, I don't mind if you can come up with your OWN unflattering label of me, however BUBBA is reserved for those of you that are of the right wing ilk, and close cousins to Joe Sixpack. Once a bubba, always a bubba. :)
36 - Clavos
handyguy, @#32 sez:
Acorn [not a monolithic entity with a single purpose, but a network of many local chapters with multiple areas of work, 99% of it selfless and admirable] claims to have registered 1.3 million voters since the last election. (emphasis added)
Hmm. "99% selfless and admirable?" Admirable, perhaps (for Democrats, at least), but certainly not selfless - there's method (and purpose) to their "selfless" labor. This organization, 100% of whose members are Democrats, are not working to recruit voters for the Republicans, so it's not exactly selfless; they are trying (and succeeding, albeit sometimes over the top) to grow the rolls of Democratic voters.
"Selfless?" Paid canvassers - canvassers who, by some accounts are under extreme pressure to meet quotas?
"Selfless?" Let's not gild the lily, handy.
37 - Dr Dreadful
This organization, 100% of whose members are Democrats...
You got a citation for that, Clav?
38 - Clavos
Pablo @#35:
You just don't get it, do you?
Your lengthy and somewhat boring copy-and-paste from Wikipedia NEVER says there was ever any legal evidence. Learn how to read, bubba, it uses the words "accused" and "allegations" over and over again.
It's meaningless.
There's no proof there, bubba. You have heard of proof, haven't you? It's that inconvenient thing necessary to actually make "accusations" and "allegations" and "charges" turn into a "conviction" in a court of law, bubba.
But you probably went to government schools, so I should cut you some slack, I guess.
39 - Cannonshop
#34 Doc, nobody was looking for this before it happened. The fact that it's here to be FOUND ought to be, but isn't, disturbing to an awful lot of folks. I guess if it was a Christian org that was doing it, say, someone aligned with the Republicans, your Democrat friends might be disturbed by it. Since it ain't, they defend it, pretend it's one or two isolated cases, or that it isn't happening at all, or that it doesn't matter that it IS happening.
Naturally enough, it's because ACORN is part of the "Progressive Vanguard" and therefore exempt, even Heroic (as Lefties measure such things) for conducting their fraud-the ends justify the means, and the ends in this case is Democrat victory at any cost.
When republicans lose elections, republicans blame...the guy who lost (which is why Dino Rossi isn't even going to come close in Washington State).
When Dems lose elections (2000, 2004) it's because those EEEEEEEEEEEvillll (deep, scary, Vincent Price voice) Republicans (canned 'scream' track) somehow changed the vote without leaving any trace. After all, John Kerry and Al Gore appealed to EVERYONE, NOBODY wanted to vote against them, saw them as snake-oil-salesmen, or held (in Kerry's case) their previous actions against them or anything... In the mind of a Democrat, it's simply not possible for someone to oppose their candidate without being part of some 'Vast Right Wing Conspiracy that Kills Puppies and Cackles Ominously'.
(of course, the other favourite stereotype is the two-teeth beerbelly redneck married to her brother, clutching to religion and guns).
There is no 'diversity' among Democrats once you remove the paintjob-they really DO think in lockstep, and do NOT EVER step outside of Party-Worship. Those that have, in the past, have been, for want of a better term, excommunicated. There are religious people within the Republican party, but the Left IS a religion-with a Jealous God called "The Party" and a Messiah/Prophet named Obama. Thanks in part to the retention of that atrocity of law known as the "Patriot Act", America will, on January 20th, become a Theocracy in worship to the ghosts of Marx and Alinsky.
A situation which I largely blame on John McCain, the Republican Party, and the Republican National Committee.
But, it will do so also because of groups like ACORN paving the way and using tax-money to defraud elections. a Truly bipartisan effort, in my opinion.
40 - Clavos
Um, Doc, what Republican in his (or her) right mind would volunteer to go out and register Dem voters?
Do you know a Rep who is in ACORN?
However, I will concede that perhaps many ACORN members are NOT Democrats, but rather SWP, or Marxists, CPUSA, etc.
41 - Dr Dreadful
Or independents, Clav.
I mentioned nothing about Republicans, as you (belatedly!) noted.
42 - Clavos
Not even independents, Doc, ACORN is no place for uncommitted non-ideologues.
43 - Pablo
Clavy,
Pablo gettin under your skin bubba? Awww shucks.
Here is a video of former Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris and a former executive of Choicepoint admitting what they illegally purged registered voters from casting a vote in the 2000 election. The last count taken before the Supreme Court stopped the vote was some 500 odd votes.
The testimony of Harris starts about a minute and a half into the clip.
Katherine Harris admitting to purging eligible voters
You may want to dispute that it was 57,000 people that were purged from the list, however even if it were a fraction of that Gore would still have won and become President.
This is history, and I mean that in the literal rather than rhetorical sense of the word. It was done, and it was done as the behest of Harris (whom incidentally was allowed into the CFR right after it happened) and Jeb Bush.
You dance around like Dave does because no one was indicted or convicted that it was legal. You should be ashamed of yourself. Thousands of eligible american citizens were denied the right to vote in Florida, and we have had 8 years of living HELL.
Just as you lose no sleep at night knowing that your tax dollars and your government has slaughtered over one million human being in Iraq, I am equally sure that you don't lose a wink out of your precious sleep knowing that your bretheren were denied their basic civil right, the right to vote. But hey, you will squawk all day about ACORN won't ya bubba. hehehe
We dont want to talk about the voting machines now do we bubba? You know the ones that are not accountable to the people? The ones that can be hacked with ease. Instead your vote goes into the black hole of your trust in Diebold. Big smirk for all you buckos out there that think your vote counts. It dont. Thats why they made them (electronic voting machines), not to make the count easier, but to steal elections! Duhhhh
So have fun with your ACORN project bubbas (dave and clavy), but hey, two nuts are better than one. Smirk
44 - Cannonshop
Clav, there's no point to it anymore. To an American Lefty, "Independent" means "Left of left of center", and "uncommitted" means "Can't decide between Nader and Obama".
45 - El Bicho
I have yet to hear all the info, but it sounds much more like a bunch of minimum wage workers cheating their bosses than some left wing conspiracy.
46 - Clavos
It is to laugh, bubba. You cite, as your what? "evidence?" "proof?" a video featuring Greg Palast and Cynthia McKinney.
What little cred you might have had with me at one time, bubba, just died an ignominious death.
You have some serious issues, bubba. Even a government school diploma can't excuse that level of gullibility.
47 - Dave Nalle
So then you could vote in the last place you were registered, and if you can't get to your polling place, you could fill out a provisional ballot. That's the way it works in CA
Exactly, EB. I voted in my old district for a couple of years after I moved here in Texas. And I know they take provisional ballots in Florida where this whole issue came up.
Dave
48 - Cannonshop
Clavos, just remember- Pablo believes in the 'Troothers, it's not hard to see how he would believe in other looney conspiracy theory bullshit.
49 - Dave Nalle
This is history, and I mean that in the literal rather than rhetorical sense of the word. It was done, and it was done as the behest of Harris (whom incidentally was allowed into the CFR right after it happened) and Jeb Bush.
Since both candidates were CFR members, how can the CFR membership issue possibly be relevant?
You dance around like Dave does because no one was indicted or convicted that it was legal.
Turn this sentence around - since no one was indicted or convicted, therefore it WAS legal.
Dave
50 - Pablo
Thats ok Clavy, you NEVER have had any credibility with me about ANYTHING. :)
51 - Ruvy
Voter registration fraud? In the land of the free and the home of the brave? Say it ain't so, Dan... somebody... anybody?
Why, I'd bet my last acorn (I don't have any more dollars) that American elections are as free and unbiased as any say in, Haiti, South Africa, Zimbabwe or uhh... Israel.
52 - bliffle
cannon offersa another red herring:
A "network" that's got prosecutions in multiple states on-going for the same crime, Handy, and at the same TIME. (that is, simultaneously).
If it's an isolated incident, you'd expect one, maybe two in a year, not FIFTEEN.
ACORN has never been successfully prosecuted for voter fraud, in spite of NUMEROUS attempts.
ACORN employees special software to track the registrations turned in to it and to aid prosecution of registration fraudsters.
The reason there are so many prosecution attempts is because that is RNC policy, to the extent of harassing US Attorneys that don't pursue that enthusiastically. Even firing Republican US Attorneys appointed by a Republican administration, that seem not to be aggressive enough. Remember Gonsales, late AG?
53 - Dan(Miller)
Ruvy,
Why no, of course there is no such thing as voter registration fraud or voter fraud. Just a buncha guys, folks in the neighborhood, doing what they think is good. Laws which disenfranchise dead people, felons, non-U.S. citizens, and the like are bad or difficult to enforce and should, therefore, be ignored. I mean, you know, what's good is good, even if some stupid State or Federal laws say it's illegal.
I once thought that the most effective way to get bad laws changed was to enforce them so that the regular folks would demand their repeal or modification. Wrong. Just ignore those laws you don't like, and enforce those which you think are good. Ain't anarchy great!
Dan(Miller)
54 - El Bicho
Pablo, when your proof starts "According to Wikepedia," you don't have any proof.
55 - Dan(Miller)
Not to worry. Now the FBI is on the case. The investigation should be
completedabandoned well before the election (in 2012).Dan(Miller)
56 - Silas Kain
Voter fraud is as American as Apple Pie. I say we need U.N. election observers.
57 - Baronius
"Is it so impossible for our Republican friends to believe that they might actually lose an election on the merits? That the voters actually prefer the Democrat on the issues?"
Handy makes a valid point. Both sides have to watch out for that kind of thinking. We need to keep an eye out for unfairness, but we can't delude ourselves when our candidates lose fairly. The Dems decided early that if they lost this election, they were going to blame racism. The Republicans has been getting increasingly feverish about ACORN the closer they get to a loss.
Both parties have run some real losers: Dole, Gore, Kerry, and probably McCain. The Dems generally refuse to accept the blame for their lousy candidates, and complain about "swiftboating" and the like. Republicans get miserably angry at themselves, the country, and their candidates, but don't typically blame their losses on gremlins.
58 - bliffle
Sounds like Dan(Miller) is getting hysterical if he doesn't recognize fiat law when he sees it. Isn't Dan(Miller) an attorney?
59 - Dan(Miller)
Bliffle,
I admit my errors. I am now a recovering attorney and, yes, I did once own a Fiat station wagon. I used it to drive to my law office. So, yes, I do recognize fiat law when [I see] it. Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. I shall now go and hang myself. That is the only honorable thing to do. Good bye, cruel world. Good bye.
Dan(Miller)
60 - El Bicho
"Both parties have run some real losers:...Gore,"
Gore received more popular votes than Bush and lost FL by 500+ votes. I didn't vote for him, but to call him a "real loser" shows utter ignorance in political history and a poor grasp on the English language. Now, Mondale and McGovern were real losers as candidates.
61 - Silas Kain
Don't forget Dukakis!
62 - Baronius
Bicho, I meant "loser" in a broader sense. But then again, Gore did lose.
63 - handyguy
Clavos, just to clarify, re the 99% of Acorn's work factoid...
Voter registration is not their primary activity. Access to housing and access to legal redress of grievances for the poor are two of their major areas of activity.
Certainly, they are left of center. I don't know whether they would refuse to register people who self-identified as independent or Republican, or in fact if they even could do that.
But they do concentrate on poorer neighborhoods. Not, in itself, objectionable to you guys, I assume?
PS I am aware of the embarrassing embezzlement scandal involving the founder's brother. I do not count that among the 99% selfless activity. Helping poor folks assert their rights, though...that's a good thing.
64 - bliffle
Dan(Miller): hanging is not appropriate; I believe that Sepuku is called for in the case of humiliating disgrace. Don't forget to wet the blade: it slips through flesh more easily that way.
65 - Dan(Miller)
Here is a link to an article pointing out the extent to which recent polls are divergent and suggesting that survey methodologies and weighting of responses are a cause. Polling has some scientific bases, but relies on a lot of subjective judgments which skew the results.
Dan(Miller)
66 - Dan(Miller)
I found the Supreme Court's per curiam opinion. Here is a link.
In other words, the decision was on a procedural point, and in no way dealt with the underlying issue of whether there has been compliance with HAVA. I suspect that the issue will resurface during litigation over the recounts, which will probably be necessary if the election is a close one, between 4 November and the inauguration of whomever.The opinion states,
Dan(Miller)
67 - Cannonshop
Just based on what was on the news today, I think the Court is right in vacating the action, at least, on a technical level. For some reason, Republicans just don't write their lawsuits very well.
Maybe they should give some candy to the trial-lawyers.
68 - Pablo
A new article in Rolling Stone on how the right wing is planning on stealing the election for a third time! How surprising.
Will the GOP's campaign to deter new voters and discard Democratic ballots determine the next president?
ACORN and Mickey mouse my ass.
69 - Lisa Solod Warren
Please SEE that voter fraud and disenfranchisement is not just an acorn problem, guys. And HERE.
70 - Pablo
BREAKING: HEAD OF CA GOP VOTER REGISTRATION OUTFIT ARRESTED FOR REGISTRATION FRAUD
DB08:100
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Kate Folmar
October 19, 2008 (916) 208-6521
Secretary of State Debra Bowen Announces
Arrest of Man Charged with Voter Registration Fraud
SACRAMENTO " The owner of a signature-gathering firm that works across California was arrested in Ontario today on suspicion of committing voter registration fraud, Secretary of State Debra Bowen announced.
Mark Anthony Jacoby, who owns the firm known as Young Political Majors (YPM), was arrested after allegedly registering himself to vote, once in 2006 and again in 2007, at an address where did not live. An investigation by the Secretary of State’s Election Fraud Investigation Unit revealed that Jacoby twice registered to vote at the address of a childhood home in Los Angeles although he no longer lived there.
The Secretary of State’s fraud unit and the Ontario Police Department arrested Jacoby near an Ontario hotel just before midnight Saturday. An arraignment date has not been scheduled yet.
“Voter registration fraud is a serious issue, which is why I vigorously investigate all allegations of elections fraud,” said Secretary Bowen, California’s chief elections officer. “Where there’s a case to be made, I will forward it to law enforcement for criminal prosecution.”
For his business, Jacoby traveled California and a number of other states collecting petition signatures and registering voters. Under state law, signature-gatherers must sign a declaration stating that they are either registered to vote in California or that they are eligible to do so. Jacoby allegedly registered to vote at his childhood address to meet this legal requirement.
Under California law, it is a felony punishable by up to three years in prison to register yourself when you are not entitled to vote and it is perjury to provide false information on a voter registration card.
On October 3, the Public Integrity Unit of the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office charged Jacoby with four felonies: two counts of voter registration fraud and two counts of perjury. A warrant was issued for his arrest and bail was set at $50,000.
“This arrest wouldn’t have been possible without the hard work of the Ontario Police Department and Los Angeles District Attorney Steve Cooley’s office,” Secretary Bowen said. “I thank them both.”
The Secretary of State’s Election Fraud Investigation Unit helps maintain the integrity of the electoral process by investigating allegations of election and voter fraud in California. Potential Elections Code violations brought to the unit’s attention are thoroughly investigated and referred to law enforcement officials for prosecution when there is sufficient evidence of wrongdoing. The Secretary of State’s office does not disclose information about the status of ongoing criminal investigations, but the information from a case that results in a criminal complaint filed by a county or state prosecutor is a public record.
Anyone who has witnessed a violation of the California Elections Code is encouraged to contact the Secretary of State’s Election Fraud Investigation Unit at (800) 345-VOTE or http://www.sos.ca.gov/el...ions/elections_fraud.htm.
###
ACORN MY ASS.
71 - Pablo
Incidentally regarding the above press release from the California Secretary of State's office, this person was arrested for VOTER FRAUD. Unlike the right wing fear mongers on here talking about ACORN which if true (to my knowledge there have not been any actual indictments only an investigation)is voter registration fraud, a completely different animal.
Your ACORN haters have been completely discredited not only in the MSM but by the blogosphere as well.
Coming from Nalle its typical.
72 - Dan(Miller)
Re comment #70,
Very interesting. Thus far, this does not seem to have reached the NYtimes, the LAtimes, CNN, MSNBC, ABC or others. It certainly should. A Google search did reveal the following link and this link and a few other "reliable sources." Unfortunately, not all that many people get their "news" there.
One might question why the right-leaning Main Stream Media have been so slow on the uptake. Perhaps later.
The days (weeks, months . . . )following 4 November will certainly be at least as interesting as those preceding it.
Dan(Miller)
73 - Pablo
Allow me to correct my own mistake before Dave's boy Clavy jumps all over me. The guy was arrested for Voter Registration Fraud, not Voter Fraud, as I said.
74 - Doug Hunter
I agree with those who have stated that voter fraud is not widespread and is just a red herring being thrown up by Republicans. The issue is with voter turnout and disenfrachisement based on demographics.
If everyone was compelled to vote the country would shift to the left so Dem groups are actively trying to encourage voter participation among those that usually will not participate. Republicans are trying to retain the status quo or even make it more challenging for people to be eligible to vote.
If Dems get in control, which it appears they will, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move to expand voting participation although compulsive voting is probably still off the table.
So in the spirit of holding hands and singing cumbayah I'll drop the lies and spin and get down to the truth. I'll admit that I wish poor people and those that don't contribute to society couldn't vote on how the government should regulate and tax those of us that do. I'd love to ensure that only those with picture ID could vote, or even better that only those who pay income tax or own land could.
75 - Pablo
Dan said:
"Thus far, this does not seem to have reached the NYtimes, the LAtimes, CNN, MSNBC, ABC or others"
I know I am way ahead of those guys over at the MSM, as they are far too busy spreading their propaganda for the ruling elite. I am quite sure that Davey has not heard of it yet either, as he is too busy trying to make a mountain out of a molehill ala ACORN. Its the oldest trick in the book actually, point your finger whilst picking someones pocket. A typical Nallism.