We have all heard of the Bradley Effect — the polls suggest that there will be more votes cast for Senator Obama than actually will be: Senator Obama is Black, and since some poll respondents do not wish to be considered racist they conceal their true intentions. Although difficult if not impossible to quantify rigorously, there is probably something to the theory.
I have another theory to suggest, the bottom line of which is that the spate of fraudulent voter registrations, many courtesy of ACORN, may have a similar effect and, quite possibly, an unintended consequence. This theory is predicated on assumptions for the first of which I have significant empirical evidence and for the second of which I have only modest empirical evidence. I must also acknowledge an abysmal lack of sophistication in statistical methodology.
Assumption 1. The various opinion polls are weighted to reflect, among other things, percentages of registered voters in the sample area. The sample used by Zogby, for example, is drawn as follows:
Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cd's of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number.The responses are then weighted as follows:
Weighting by [region, party, age, race, religion, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. (emphasis added)Hence, if the respondent sample is deficient in a particular race, party or other sub-group, answers of respondents from the deficient subgroup are given greater weight. Such weighting is appropriate for any number of reasons, including the exclusion of cell phones from the national listed sample which, absent weighting, would cause over sampling of respondents with land line telephone service. Obviously, people with no telephone service, cellular or land line, are also excluded. I have no problem in general with the weighting process, because it makes sense.
Assumption 2. Although I have seen no data which affirm or reject the notion, I assume that most of the recent ACORN registrations have reflected affiliation either as Democratic Party or (possibly) Independent. This does not suggest any evil intent on the part of ACORN; it is merely a probable outcome of the areas and population groups in which ACORN makes its efforts — "low and moderate income neighborhoods and communities of color" where Democrats (or possibly Independents) are many and Republicans are few.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Dr Dreadful
Interesting and fair analysis as always, Dan.
Ironically, there may not actually have been much to the original 'Bradley Effect'. This article by the chief polling guru for George Deukmejian - the guy who ended up defeating Bradley - claims that Deukmejian's own polling showed that he had all but eaten up Bradley's once substantial lead by election day.
2 - DaveNalle
One convincing theory I've heard about the ACORN registrations is that they are there specificially to inflate the total number of registered voters so that when those voters don't show up, the poll workers who run about 2:1 democrats to republicans - a geat many state and local government bureaucrats are election day volunteers - will have been told how many bogus registrations there are and will add that many votes to the Obama totals at the end of the day. There have been past instances of exactly this, most notably in the 2004 election in Missouri where such added unsourcable votes were part of the overall pattern of election fraud, with tens of thousands of votes which ended up being proven fraudulent after the fact. Fraud on that scale doesn't happen without the cooperation of poll workers.
I urge every republican out there to contact your county elections office and volunteer to work the polls. The training is usually pretty easy and it's just one day off work to be present to witness and to protect the integrity of the process.
Dave
3 - Cannonshop
Well, Dave, that's how it worked here in Washington in 2004, and true to form, the people whose job it is to prosecute refused to do so, while the people responsible for filing the civil suit screwed up their filing and got it tossed on a technicality, then lacked the stones to re-file a proper brief.
Since then, of course, we've got the "Vote by Mail" thing passed on us, and so there's no "Polls" to watch and no registration book to sign-fraud's easier now, it's a wonder that anyone bothers to run against the Democratic Party's chosen ones-maybe that alone substantiates the lack of fiscal responsibility. Why bother running a campaign when you know that no matter HOW the actual citizens vote, the outcome will be decided by the politburo in Seattle?
4 - Lisa Solod Warren
I find it incredible, Dave, that you assume that fraud happens only among Dems, when it has been proven over and over again that Republicans have perpetrated voter fraud year after year. Look at Florida and Ohio to name but two states. Why do you persist in this bizarre myth? Yes, there is voter fraud. But on both sides. Get real, kiddo. And quit acting like such a victim.
5 - Cannonshop
#4 Proof, Lisa? I can provide proof of fraud from your side...including prosecutions for it. Of course, any election a Democrat loses after the third recount MUST be fraud, right??? Whereas "Found" votes (found after each successive demand for a recount, mysteriously 'missed' or left inside the voting box?), Mickey Mouse, the Dallas Cowboys, and seventy three people with the same name (that of a teenager??), those're all valid, because (naturally) they were gathered by YOUR allies??
and "Every Vote must be counted" as a warcry (except, of course, for Military personnel overseas-those can be ignored, after all, they're probably for the wrong party...), right?? That's (what's the word)Kosher with you. YOu're good with that.
NO. Lisa, NO and NO and NO. Repeating a lie because it makes you feel good does not make it true, and saying fraud's okay because you've convinced yourself someone else did it first is NOT OKAY.
This is an organization under indictment in multiple states, for the same CRIME, and NOT in the "After the voting is done and we're going to throw a temper tantrum because we lost wahhh." that characterizes the Florida and Ohio accusations.
It's not isolated to a single state, it's not isolated to "battleground" states, Lisa. Even in WASHINGTON STATE, a state that is essentially a Democratic Fiefdom with known-crooked-machine politics, this group was caught violating the law so badly that it wasn't ignored, even by those who stand to benefit (though, honestly, not that much-three districts in Seattle choose the Governor, Senators, and assign the Electoral Votes for the rest of the state. the Politburo-er, "King County Elections Comission" decides the winners here by manufactured votes, dead votes, and duplicate votes. Washington belongs to the Democratic Party.)
But you're clearly good with that. In fact, I suspect rather strongly at this point, that you're good with a whole lot of things as long as your Party wins, even if the win is a matter of fixing the race. (perhaps ESPECIALLY if so).
After all, it's "Progressive" to bring Chicago Machine Politics into the National system, right??
Gotta advance that "progressive Vanguard of the Class Struggle" because the Ends Justify The Means, don't they?
You once (on a different topic) told me I should be a Democrat-well, Lisa, this is exactly why I can't vote Democrat while I'm still alive. Once dead, of course, I know that I'll vote Democrat for DECADES (at least, if I stay in Washington State, or if this shit isn't stopped HARD, nationwide.)
6 - Clavos
It's a deadly issue, Cannon.
BTW, when I was in the IAM here in Miami many decades ago, I was (if memory serves) the only Conservative among all the union's members in this district.
Are you also pretty much on your own?
7 - Cannonshop
#6 about 30% of IAM members up here self-identify as "Conservative" or "Republican", Clav, including a "minority party" of sorts among the Stewards and District Council-never quite enough to sway the leadership out of the 'Progressives' hands, but enough that (very rarely) the district actually pays more attention to representing the membership than to representing the Democratic Party To the membership in the manner of a Pavlov's good-doggy, endorsing and supporting with no guarantees of getting anything in return...
8 - zingzing
you guys completely ignore the republican tactic of vote-suppression, especially in minority areas. how do they get this done?
THEY RAISE THE ALARM ABOUT NON-EXISTENT VOTER FRAUD AND CLAMP DOWN WITH NEW, RESTRICTIVE LAWS. der.
smear campaigns, such as ACORN, and ridiculous lawsuits are just more facets of the republican tactic. they do this shit every time. one has to wonder how much of this kind stuff is purely republican meddling.
they challenge the right of people to vote, but never seem to care about the white, suburban areas. they go straight into the inner city, to the minority areas. and then they purge and make voters ineligible through whatever method they can, including tightening database rules and using "caging," rove's favorite tactic for winning ohio and florida.
while the republicans want to make you think that they are just protecting you from democratic voter fraud, what they are really doing is committing their own voter fraud while loudly shouting about the democrats so that you don't hear them sneaking around, disenfranchising you.
it's systematic and it's smart, and they're doing it RIGHT NOW.
9 - Matthew T. Sussman
It's not voter fraud. It's voting better.
10 - DaveNalle
Oh please, Zing. Those lame caging accusations are so stupid. Republican voter fraud by your definition is equivalent to requiring voters to follow their states rules for eligibility. OMG, how evil!
Dave
11 - zingzing
but they add "rules for eligibility" all the time, saying that it's to combat non-existent democratic voter-fraud. that's what i'm saying. and caging isn't lame, it's pretty fucking brilliant.
12 - DaveNalle
Zing, Republicans can't add rules in a vacuum. That requires the state government to do it and likely in most states a full scale law or constitutional amendment.
And what has become abundantly clear in recent weeks is that democratic voter fraud is anything but non-existent. Pull your head out of the sand and smell the corruption.
Dave
13 - zingzing
dave, you don't think that republicans need to actually change the laws, do you? they just declare voters ineligible juuust prior to the election, thus not giving them time to assert their eligibility. i'd bet that in the past few weeks, they've sent out tons of mailers to homes undergoing foreclosure in inner-city areas in michigan, florida, ohio... any state where just a little push might give them the edge they need.
as for democratic voter fraud, i haven't seen any actual numbers... other than 50 ("and where there's 50, there could be 150," they said...)
so show me the types of numbers that could actually be as bad as republican machinations...
14 - Jordan Richardson
This is a pretty good analysis of the reality of voter fraud. (Careful, it's 24 pages). And my this article dips into the issue a little more.
15 - Dr Dreadful
Jordan, let's give 'em a while to read 'em, but given the source of your citations, you don't really think Dave 'n' co are going to do anything other than dismiss them out of hand, do you?
16 - Jordan Richardson
I know. I'm still getting used to the fact that certain individuals don't care what the facts are but rather care where the facts came from.
17 - Dan(Miller)
Lisa, re comment # 4
It will be very difficult at this late date to comply with the en banc order issued by the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals. Obviously, verification should have undertaken earlier. Equally obviously, spam-type attacks substantially diminish the likelihood that it can now be done reliably.True, there has been voter fraud all over, and for a long time. The problem is that although both parties and their surrogates carry some blame, the electoral process is the victim. You are a victim, I am a victim, and so is everyone else who votes. As a consequence, the country as a whole is a "victim." Damn, I hate that word.
The recent ACORN activities appear to resemble a spam attack, except that they are more difficult to counter. BC has suffered spam attacks in the past, and so have many other sites. They are a nuisance, but can be dealt with because the necessary technology is available. Overloading the voter registration process with even patently fraudulent registration attempts is far worse; each registration has to be reviewed, often by people, one at a time, so that no legitimate registration is rejected. It is not easy.
Yesterday, the Ohio Board of Elections was ordered to verify voter registrations.
Even if there were readily available computer software to deal with the problem effectively, data entry would remain a labor intensive task.
Spam attacks are bad, in any form. The recent ones are worse than most, because they undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Dan(Miller)
18 - Dr Dreadful
Fortunately, it now appears likely that Obama will win convincingly enough to make any challenge to the legitimacy of votes in some areas a mere sideshow. If not, it seems certain that there will be a bitter legal fight to rival 2000: the GOP will do their utmost to make sure the matter goes all the way to the Supreme Court, knowing full well that that august body will again vote along straight party lines, and therefore in their favor.
19 - Jordan Richardson
And this is the "Democracy" that United States wants to spread around the world?
20 - Dan(Miller)
Doc,
There you go again, to quote a dead white male politician, relying on the polls. Perhaps Senator Obama has a fourteen point lead or perhaps it's three points. Or perhaps it's more than fourteen points or less than three points, or perhaps it is somewhere in between.
Do you remember the famous picture of President Truman holding up a newspaper the banner headline of which was "Dewey Wins" ?
Don't count your acorns before they germinate; they don't all grow into mature oak trees.
Dan(Miller)
21 - DaveNalle
I find it incredible, Dave, that you assume that fraud happens only among Dems, when it has been proven over and over again that Republicans have perpetrated voter fraud year after year. Look at Florida and Ohio to name but two states. Why do you persist in this bizarre myth? Yes, there is voter fraud. But on both sides. Get real, kiddo. And quit acting like such a victim.
Lisa, there is widespread evidence of Democrat voter fraud going back decades and taking many forms. It's hardly a bizarre myth.
As for your claims about Ohio and FLorida, you're repeating a popular belief held by many on the left for which there is no factual evidence. Show me proof of Republican fraud in either of those elections. And I mean real proof, like eyewitnesses or documentary evidence. There is none. There are lots of allegations which were investigated and proven to be untrue.
Dave
22 - Clavos
Maturity can be quite difficult to achieve, especially by the political set.
23 - Dr Dreadful
Dan,
I'm not basing my opinion on the national popular vote, but on the state polls and their projected effect on the electoral college. There, Obama is applying toe vigorously to buttock.
There are a number of sites which track the polls in this way, and two in particular have predicted the last couple of elections with commendable accuracy. I've linked to them before: they are Electoral Vote, which is run by a liberal, and Election Projection, which is run by a conservative. They use different algorithms, but the methodology of both seems sound.
A newcomer to the mix is Fivethirtyeight.com, which ravenously seizes whatever polling data it can find and analyses it so thoroughly, and in so many different ways, that it should keep the most hardened election junkie happy for months.
Enjoy!
24 - Baronius
Zing, poorer and urban people change residence more frequently. That's established. Therefore there are going to be more challenges to registrations in those communities.
As to which party commits more fraud, usually you need a machine to commit any significant-sized fraud. The legendary corrupt cities (Philadelphia, New Orleans, Chicago, etc.) are run by Democrats. Republicans don't have the opportunity to commit massive fraud.
25 - bliffle
Baronius the Erroneous ventures:
"Republicans don't have the opportunity to commit massive fraud."
Some, witnessing the Kathryn Harris effort in Florida 2000, would differ.