When your back is against the wall, you do what you have to in order to survive.
Introduction…
"A sinister cabal of superior writers."
Persia Delenda Est! Israel's Case for a Pre-Emptive Nuclear Strike on Tehran - Comments Page 2
When your back is against the wall, you do what you have to in order to survive.
Introduction…
Article comments
— go to most recent comments26 - roger nowosielski
Even if I tried, I couldn't have put it any better. You are a heckuva debunker, Chris, of all backward thinking. And Ruvy's is an example par excellence.
What's amazing is that people like that are still around. I would have thought that in this day and age there are no longer dinosaurs.
Live and learn.
27 - Ruvy
Turned out that the village bonfire was not what I had hoped ti to be so we're grilling dogs at home. So while the dogs grill....
Chris, your pathetic attempts to dismiss what I've written are singularly ineffective - though you do note that what you dislike is well written. I'll always take a compliment - and use it where I see fit....
Roger, in this day and age, there are still people who regard a mortal threat seriously - and are willing and able to do something about it, instead of quailing like cowards. In this case, I'll repeat what I wrote on the second page of this article: "the article that follows calls for a preemptive nuclear strike on Tehran and such other targets in Persia that will destroy the command and control systems holding together Persian offensive military capability. Even if this attack never comes about, it is incumbent for an Israeli to lay on the table and make clear to the world the necessity for such a strike, if only to make clear to our mortal enemies that we possess the will to exterminate them as they would exterminate us."
In the end, Roger, we will win, because we possess the will to - and those who impede that will shall find themselves tossed onto history's garbage pail.
28 - roger nowosielski
Ruvy,
I'd buy your reasoning if you were threatened personally, as Dan Miller may be when faced with the criminal element trying to break into his house and rob him blind. But I don't buy into this analogy when it comes to nation-states. That's where IMO it all breaks down.
There are other mechanisms of keeping law and order, and they transcend what any single individual can do. And thank God they should. Consequently, for you to reduce this entire conflict to personal level is ludicrous, again, IMO.
That's where I think your difficulty lies.
29 - Ruvy
Roger, where I live, the borders of nation-states do get personal. Because of a suicidal Israeli acquiescence to dictates from the States, neither my sons nor I can so much as walk from Ma'ale Levona to 'Eli, a distance of some 4 kilometers, or to Shilo, which is a little closer to buy fruit at the fruit market there....
You dismiss realities that I describe to you because you refuse to see that a certain point, all borders, and all political disputes do become personal. In the Shomron, that is exactly what happens. It is not so different from what used top happen at Hrubieszow during the days of the USSR - soldiers from the Ukrainian SSR would fire at animals they saw in Hrubieszow, and the villagers had to swallow the loss in silence. The Polish puppet regime dared not protest the border violations.
30 - roger nowosielski
I think I can understand that, Ruvy. And I do understand, believe me, where you're coming from.
What I will say, however, is that perhaps you choose to live "on the frontiers" as it were rather than accept the international solution.
You know we've been over thus before, the argument going back and forth. And perhaps I grant you that there's no viable solution in mind. But I'll still say that anything that could pass for a peace agreement would be better than to keep on living in the state of constant preparedness and militancy.
I certainly wouldn't wish it on my children.
Life is too good to waste it on enmity and hatred and fear. And I don't believe that God, yours or mine, would really be desirous of such an outcome.
31 - Ruvy
Roger,
I could blow my ego all out of proportion by saying I chose to live in the Shomron among the pioneers in our ancient heartland. But only a fool lies to himself, Roger. I could not afford to continue living in Jerusalem, and had to find cheap rent - and then had to find cheap rent again. It's money, not politics, that has dictated my choice of residence and Ma'ale Levona is as cheap as it gets without moving into a trailer (called a caravan here).
Here I live in a house, have a yard, enjoy a great view - all for a third of what I paid in Jerusalem to live in an apartment, have a bitch for a downstairs neighbor, and a whole pack of roaches that she sent me when she sprayed one year. It's quiet, really quiet on the Sabbath, and the only worries I have here are sitting guard and paying the bills.
I could use a coffee shop, but if I thought I could make a profit on one, I'd open it myself. I can't.
On the other hand....
Nevertheless, but for the artificial barriers of the PA, the IDF, and the inciters to violence from Europe who fund groups like "Peace Now" and "Yesh G'vul", Arabs and Jews could live in peace here.
And all these barriers have been erected to please the shitheads in YOUR government, Roger. So, we die, literally, to please the assholes in Washington DC.
32 - Baronius
Ruvy, the question you fail to answer is, why go nuclear? Israel has set back other countries' nuclear programs before. They've used targeted strikes. If you don't know exactly where the targets are, Israel should get its spy service back in gear and find out.
If you target 60% of the right sites and hit half of them, you'd set the program back a half-dozen years. In those few extra years, the decline of the Iranian regime will continue, most probably accelerated by the humiliation of military failure.
After such an attack, the Arab League would complain loudly, but each member would quietly snicker or sigh in relief. There would be no consequences, except for the improvement in security. If you go nuclear, on the other hand, the consequences would be unfathomably greater.
33 - roger nowosielski
We're all constrained by material circumstance, Ruvy. And you're no exception. I have never envied a rich man, and neither have you, I'm sure. My life has been as full as that of any man, and I wouldn't exchange it, nor was I ever envious of anyone.
What barriers are you talking about, though? And how have we imposed them?
34 - Ruvy
Baronius,
the question you fail to answer is, why go nuclear?
You go nuclear because the other solutions will not do the job or have such a small chance of success, you might as well not undertake them. Go read the article through one more time, and you'll see what I'm talking about.
The issue is getting rid of the commanders and the controllers. Stan Denham once made a very intelligent suggestion of having a group of special forces go to Teheran and murder off the right people. It's a better solution than a pre-emptive nuclear strike - if you can pull it off.
That's the catch.
You really get only one shot at such an attack. It's like going after a nest of thieves. Once they know you are after them - I mean really after them - the security goes way way up.
To look at it just a little differently, the Kennedy administration could have gotten rid of Castro in 1961 - if they had backed the Bay of Pigs assault. They didn't and the Castro dictatorship was prepared for every single one of many many attempts to ditch Fidel afterwards.
Similarly, one failure by the Israeli Mossad (and there may have already been one failure) would queer the future success of the operatives.
That's why you go nuclear. It gets rid of everybody in one shot. The trouble is, you get rid of so many other everybodies as well - that's what mass murder does.
It stinks! I can't stand this solution. It upsets me to even suggest this idea at all. But I can't come up with a better one, considering the existential level of the threat. So 'm stuck with a solution that offends my moral sensibilities immensely - but appears to be the only one available.
There is one other solution that could work: the United States could take out these nuclear facilities. L-rd knows, they have the ability to do what Israel doesn't. But both Bush and Obama refuse to do this.
That leaves the only solution that makes sense, considering Israel's military capacity. Leveling Tehran (and one other city) to nuclear glass.
35 - Baronius
I'm not sold. I'm not convinced that the command and control centers are the best targets either. If you want to eliminate the threat, you've got to hit the physical locations - the labs and equipment.
Alternately, you could attack their air force and anti-aircraft defenses, then take your time wiping out each nuclear facility. And there's always infiltration and sabotage, or computer warfare. There's also economic sabotage and inciting political unrest, neither of which should be too difficult given Iran's current state. There is a wide variety of options.
36 - Ruvy
Baronius, if you want to get rid of the threat, you need to get rid of the minds who would exterminate you - that's command and control - the clowns running the show. That means from Rafsanjani down....
37 - jon_e_7
Just so I'm clear, Ruvy, you're OK with the U.S. turning off the money-tap to Israel ?
38 - Glenn Contrarian
Ruvy -
Have you noticed that - despite the several documented times that America and the Soviet Union were within as little as an hour before launching a nuclear strike - we did not begin a nuclear war?
Have you noticed that no nuclear-armed country has ever struck a nuclear-armed country?
There's reasons for these facts.
The day Israel launches a preemptive nuclear strike on another country is the day that Israel will FOREVER lose every ally on the planet...
...and what is worse, such an act would not only JUSTIFY anti-Semitism, but it would SILENCE those who would otherwise stand against anti-Semitism...and may very well enable another Holocaust against which the Nazis' war crimes would pale in comparison.
This is hard for conservatives and far-right Zionists to understand, but much of what protects the Jews of the world is not only money, not only force of arms, but SYMPATHY and determination to not allow another genocide.
BUT should the victims themselves then commit genocide - for such is what a nuclear attack really is - then you lose all sympathy, all monetary and logistical support that you now receive, and any military support that you might otherwise receive.
Sun Tzu once said that the acme of generalship is to achieve victory without resorting to battle. In other words, the best generals use diplomatic and economic maneuver to achieve aims.
Bush and Cheney never understood that. Apparently, neither do you.
39 - Glenn Contrarian
AND in addition to the above, should Israel eliminate Iran, then there is no opposing balance against the Sunni countries. Then all 1.2 billion Muslims, some 'Christians', and many others would be united against Israel...which would then find herself without a friend to help defend her.
Currently, it is longstanding U.S. policy that we would help defend you should other countries declare war on you. The Israeli lobby is strong enough that, should any politician renege on that promise, he would have NO chance at reelection.
However, if you preemptively nuke another country, you will find yourself in a hopeless situation - because you only have a limited number of nukes...and you would have NO prospect of other countries coming to your rescue.
If you cannot understand the clear and irrefutable logic of my last two posts, Ruvy, then please do no take any offense at this, but I think you may very well need help.
40 - Glenn Contrarian
Oh - and one more thing!
Nuclear bombs can be stored for only so long before the fissionable material inside decays to the point that it is no longer practically fissionable.
What the 'shelf life' may be of those weapons I do not know, but I suspect it may be less than a generation. You see, it's not as if the bomb's good for the duration of the half-life of the fissionable material inside. In fact, the margin between prime fissionable material and material that would 'fizzle' (as North Korea's first attempt did) isn't as much as you might think.
In other words, the nukes Israel has may very well be duds by now...ALL of them.
Which means that Israel has to resort to a strategy of threat and bluff...and hope that no one calls your bluff.
Come to think of it, Saddam Hussein had to play the same game...and did so successfully until the world that believed his threats took him too seriously.
You see, Ruvy, currently Israel can deal from a position of strength. It would be FAR wiser to use that strength to build a network of friends and allies - and to build your economy to the point that the rest of the Middle East NEEDS you.
You see, China HATES us...but they continue to buy our bonds (loan us money) because if our recession turns into a depression...so does theirs.
Thus the saying, keep your friends close, but your enemies closer. Learn to play CHESS, Ruvy - not 'King of the Hill'.
41 - Dave Nalle
I live in Europe and here it is a truth, universally acknowledged that going to war in Iraq/Afghanistan was absolutely wrong.
I live in the US where it is a truth, acknowledged by most sensible people, that people in Europe are so deluded that they have no idea what's right or wrong.
Dave
42 - Baronius
Ruvy, you could just as easily say, "if you want to get rid of the threat, take away your enemy's power to follow through on it". If you leave half-assembled nuclear technology in Iran and destroy the government, some future government will eventually assemble it. If you take away the Iranian government's nuclear threat, you'll leave a weakling in Asia which will be swarmed by its rivals.
43 - Dave Nalle
For the record, Baronius is dead right in #32. If Israel acts, that is what they will do and he probably called the consequences right too.
Dave
44 - Dr Dreadful
Dave, I'm sure you realize that 'Civilized', in paraphrasing Pride and Prejudice, failed to register that Austen was being sarcastic.
Just as I realize that so are you.
45 - Ruvy
Just so I'm clear, Ruvy, you're OK with the U.S. turning off the money-tap to Israel?
If you look over my 120 odd articles here, as well as my comments since November 2005, you will see that I view that money tap as a form of American imperial control, rather than "help". Of course, I want it turned off.
Israel needs to be weaned off of the big checkbook, big ego, know-it-all American Jews who don't know jack shit about how we really live here, as well as the Arabist monkeys in the State department who want to rectify the "historic error" of creating a "Jewish entity" here by gradually destroying Israel.
46 - Ruvy
Glenn,
You can't lose what you don't have.
Israel has NO allies on the planet. Let's repeat that so that it is absolutely clear in your head. Israel has NO allies on the planet. Israel once thought it had one ally in the 1950's and 1960's - France. But in June 1967, de Gaulle turned 180 degrees and embraced the Arabs. He fucked over the Israeli government by refusing to deliver a bunch of Super-Mystères they had already paid for. That's why Shim'on Peres arranged for the theft of French nuclear material in 1970 so that we could build bombs. We figured out the missiles ourselves. We fucked over the French in return.
The American government has never been an ally to this country. It blocked arms shipments to the haganá and etze"l before independence, refused any arms shipments here after independence, pressured ben-Gurion not to declare independence before May 1948; forced Rabin to withdraw from advanced positions in the Sinai in 1949; refused to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel; attempted to hamstring Israeli anti-terror action through the 1950's; forced Israel to withdraw from the Sinai in 1956; tried to bully the Israelis into not attacking in 1967; sent a task force to Cyprus to intervene in the fighting in case Israel won in 1967 (but the IDF was too fast for the not overfast Army Intelligence task force); had her spy ship (the USS Liberty) transmit data to Egypt on tank movements in the Sinai during the 1967 war; tried to bully Israel into giving up Judea and Samaria from the day fighting ended in 1967; bullied Israel into not attacking in 1973; nearly welshed on the arms replacement deal reached in return for taking thousands of needless casualties; forced Israel to withdraw from Egypt, and Syria in 1973-74; shoved this damned "Oslo Accord" down Israel's throat; and since 1990, has intervened in Israeli internal affairs as if we were their damned colony. That's not an ally. All military aid to Israel has come with colonial like conditions - of course we want your damned money tap turned of. And now, since you haven't any money....
Are you seriously threatening me that if we use our nuclear arsenal to take out Tehran the world will hate us? Do you want me to spit my water all over my keyboard and screen in laughter? I saw what has happened to any sympathy towards Jews since 1972. I remember African aid recipient after African aid-recipient breaking off diplomatic ties with Israel in 1973. I remember the condemnation we were forced to endure for daring to survive an Arab attack in 1973. I remember Arafat at the UN. I remember the attacks at the Athens airport, the kidnapping of a plane to Uganda in 1976, the terror bombs in Ma'alot, and the way the world DIDN'T give a damn then, the way it still doesn't give a damn now. Don't make me laugh in contempt at you, Glenn.
The world hates Jews. That doesn't mean we have to give a shit what you think. In fact, the 1973 war was an object lesson to us. We are alone in the world. Obama's behavior towards our Chief of Staff, our President, and now what i expect will be towards our prime minister only outlines and underlines that fact.
You are still the same genocidal savages you were BEFORE Moses came down from Sinai with two tablets of law. You learned NOTHING from the Nazi holocaust; the world, particularly the Arab world, is still in love with Hitler, and several genocides have wracked this planet since 1945. You still practice slavery, sexual and otherwise throughout the planet. You are still the uncivilized apes your were 3,300 years ago.
You cannot lose what you do not have. And you do not have a moral leg to stand on. Our Persian neighbor to the east wants to exterminate us; and your government wants us to take the blame for that extermination. That is what Caroline Glick's article referenced at the beginning of mine deals with.
You do not have any moral authority to speak, not to mention moral authority to speak of.
Yet, for me to recommend the killing of 5 million Persians in a nuclear attack leaves a taste of disgust in my mouth. Were it not for the existential threat from Iran, demonstrated twice in war, I would never recommend such a thing. But it is not genocide. You still cannot distinguish between genocide and mass murder, I see.
You made one intelligent point, though, and I'll give you credit for it. That is the issue of the half-life of the nuclear materials Israel possesses. If it is true that all of our bombs are duds (it may be) then we are in the position I warned others we would be; where we cannot win, and where we cannot afford to fight, and where we cannot afford to compromise. If that is true, we will need to rely on G-d to provide Redemption, as we certainly cannot rely on the American government.
47 - Jordan Richardson
The world hates Jews.
The world also hates homosexuals, white people, black people, heterosexuals, women, pornography, anti-pornography, mimes, banana cream pie, elephant jokes, Republicans, Democrats, LOLcats, fudge, fudge processing plants, apples, oranges, hockey, baseball, football, meat, vegetarians, traffic, public restrooms, applesauce, Hitler, God, atheists, rubber, condoms, safe sex, sex, Sarah Palin, and The Muppets.
You're not "alone in the world," Ruve. You just fucking wish you were.
48 - Jordan Richardson
Also interesting that this piece of genocidal tripe is being advertised on our front page.
Bravo.
Murderous advocation of nuclear conflict is certainly the message I want associated with Blogcritics alongside a DVD review of fucking Galaxy Quest and a House season finale preview.
49 - El Bicho
If you can solve the mystery word from those three clues, Jordan, you win a prize
50 - Mich
Apparently, Ruvy has some deep emotional and psychological issues. He needs help for his back-seated anger and hatred which desperately looking for an object to release that.
I am worried about his family.
Poor people.
51 - Ruvy
Jordan,
No national leader has called for all of these categories of things or people you've named to be wiped off the map of the world; a difference you seem unable to comprehend. That is known as an existential threat.
Just like a death threat - only a whole lot bigger - a genocidal threat. Enemies who make existential and genocidal threats should be eliminated. If my leaders in Israel don't have the balls to do that, at least an Israeli should open his mouth and holler as loud as he can that these enemies should be exterminated and why, and why a lesser solution is inadequate.
That's what this article is all about.
If that bothers you, maybe you should write an article explaining to the world in rational terms why Jews under existential threat in their own homeland should do nothing and go to the slaughter without complaint - like their grandparents did in the death ovens of Adolf Hitler. That is what all the bullshit answers I've gotten on the comment thread amount to, when carried out to their logical conclusion. Your article should make interesting reading.
52 - Ruvy
Apparently, Ruvy has some deep emotional and psychological issues....I am worried about his family. Poor people.
Yup! My "issue" is that I'm willing to stare reality in the face, while people like you bury their heads in the sand.
REALITY isn't pretty, Mich. It's much more fun to watch Star Trek prequels, House, 24.... and to scream yourself hoarse at baseball games.
By the way, I'm talking to my wife as I write this comment. She just got home from Jerusalem because the Bishop of Rome's gallavanting about Jerusalem has caused just about every street to be closed down there. So she couldn't go to work.
This is what she says, "it's not okay for us to want to destroy our enemies, but it's alright for them to hate us, and want us wiped off the map, right?"
Perhaps, Mich, from those founts of wisdom of yours, you would like to answer her?
More crap.
53 - Sasha Shepherd
In the meantime, YOU OWE US! And until you have fixed the damage YOU have done in the Middle East, you haven't got a moral leg to stand on.
Well, the West has done a great deal of damage in the middle east, and has committed an irreperable harm to the Jewish people. Namely, by allowing the state of Israel to be formed where it was in the first place.
The great gift given to the Jewish people: a patch of desert in a forever hostile land. A prison camp, a military installation, that will be forever besieged and forever at war. That has insecurity and strife woven into it's very DNA.
The Jews might have lived there 2000 years ago - but that is a long damned time. The Native Americans lived in Manhattan 300 years ago, where is the rush to give it back to them?
Here is an analogy:
So, you had a house, in a nice neighborhood. A nice, clean victorian - your great grandfater built it, it was passed through the generations. But then, through some sort of fraud or agression, you lost the house, and had to live in insecurity, hopping from apartment to apartment for many years - always remembering this fine house. Years pass. Over the years, the neighborhood turned, became not so nice - street gangs, crack dealers, prostitutes on the street. Became a rotten, dangerous place. The house is now lived in by gang members. In fact, so many years have passed that you have too, and your great-grandchildren remember the tales they have heard of this fine house, seen the pictures. Finally, one year, the winds shift, and your progeny have a chance to reclaim it. They stubbornly refuse to recognize the present reality, and cling to the stories of how nice this fine house in its clean neighborhood once was. But, the gangs and the thugs are envious of the house, and are constantly trying to break in and harm your family. But they hold on to the idea of somehow turning the neighborhood into a sparkling place again. So they spend all of their money on security equipment, and organize vigilante raids into the headquarters of the various criminal gangs, sparking more retribution and focusing the disparate gang factions around a common enemy. Finally, one day the house is burned to the ground, and your great grandchildren is where he was in the first place - except his children burned in the fire.
Mark my words - if a nuclear first attack is committed against Iran, it will result in the nuclear annihilation of Israel within the next 50 to 100 years, if not less. You must consider the long, multi-generational scope, as the Muslims certainly do. All human beings have some kind of conscious, and the actions of all groups of men are limited by the idea of what is considered acceptable within their society. The reason that a nuclear kamizake jet hasn't landed in Tel Aviv is that among the great majority of Muslims, even those who hate Israel, the idea of launching a nuclear attack on Israel seems too inhuman and suicidal to seriously consider. Should Israel launch a nuclear first strike against Iran, all such inhibitions would be lifted, and the whole collective intelligence of the Muslim world would come together on finding a way to land one or several nuclear devices in Israel. Eventually, they would succeed.
In reality, Jews should abandon the idea of Israel being the sole hope of the Jewish people, the sole redemption of world Jewry. Not that they should abandon Israel entirely, but they should instead focus on countries that have a deeply ingrained history of tolerance and plurality. The goal is preserving the history and integrity of the Jewish people, and this is not a goal that can ultimately be achieved through military means.
Trying to militarily defend Israel is like trying to bail out a sinking ocean liner with buckets. It is like children who have built a sand castle at the beach watching the tide come in, and furiously building walls and trenches around it to protect their work from the encroaching sea. It might help for a time, but in the big picture it is going against the tide of history, and will eventually fail.
54 - Christopher Rose
Ruvy, actually your issue is that you THINK you're "willing to stare reality in the face", but in fact you're not.
I don't know you well enough to be certain why that is, but I suspect that it is your prolonged exposure to the non-linear thought of your impressionist faith that makes you see fact where there is only supposition and prevents you understanding the difference between rhetoric and action.
The truth of the matter is that there is as much evidence to support your political ideas as there is your religion, meaning none.
You are in fact displaying a kind of mental premature ejaculation, gushing forth your solutions to events that haven't happened. I really hope that politics and religion are the only areas of your life that you are experiencing this embarrassing condition...
55 - roger nowosielski
Sasha (#53).
I like your comment. Yes, that's Ruvy's last stand, and that's how he feels about it - even of the entire world (including Israel) will go to hell in a handbasket.
The fortunate thing is - this little petty local squabble that goes back 2000 years is but a storm in a teacup. It's not going to draw the entire world into war. And after the dust settles, Israel will be no more.
But Ruvy doesn't care I guess as long as biblical prophecies are fulfilled.
56 - M a Rk
imo it's all a Ruvy ruse to put Israel in an untenable position requiring - so he believes - his god's intervention. A less than stellar plan.
57 - roger nowosielski
Not a stellar plan if for one reason only: He's trying to second-guess God.
58 - roger nowosielski
I apologize, BTW, for that remark. It was poor form and I should have phrased it differently.
59 - Ruvy
Sasha,
I do not know if you are Jewish or not, but it appears to me from the consonance of your remarks that you do0 not understand Jewish history.
Jews were forced into exile by the Romans over a 600 year period, during which they (the Romans) committed what amounted to genocide against us in our land, in Cyprus, Egypt, Cyrenaica, and other parts of the empire. The result was that Jews fled east to Babylon, and west to Europe.
Since the destruction of the Temple of Herod in 70 CE there has been NO security in Jewish communal life.
Since we've returned home, that security has begun to return, to a small degree. And I cannot emphasize this too strongly, this is home.
In reality, Jews should abandon the idea of Israel being the sole hope of the Jewish people, the sole redemption of world Jewry. Not that they should abandon Israel entirely, but they should instead focus on countries that have a deeply ingrained history of tolerance and plurality. The goal is preserving the history and integrity of the Jewish people, and this is not a goal that can ultimately be achieved through military means.
When I was a kid, I lived in Brooklyn. At the time, one of our family friends talked of moving to Israel. I looked at him and told him that there are more Jews in New York City than all of Israel? Why would any Jew want to move there?
Now, consider, Sasha. Today, instead of 2.1 million Jews living in Israel and 2½ million living in New York City, over 5½ million Jews live in Israel. And in a city of 8 million, the same population as there was 50 years ago, there are only 1.75 million Jews. The demographics have fundamentally changed and Israel is the center of Jewish life, not America, a fact that American Jews do not particularly like - if they care about being Jews at all.
Then there is the simple concept that if Jews give up Israel, they might as well forget about being Jews. When you say grace after meals, you pray for the rebuilding of Jerusalem; three times a day, you pray that G-d will gather His exiles from the four corners of the earth and bring them home. Now if you do none of these things after a generation or two, you forget who you are - except when the goyim talk about jewing down the price of something or the Jews killing Jesus or some other bullshit - or when someone decides to kill you because you are a Jew. The German Jews all thought Berlin was better than Jerusalem - until the Germans began beating the shit out of them, smashing the windows of their stores, banning them from working in banks, schools, etc., making them wear yellow stars, stealing their property. All of a sudden, Jerusalem started looking very very good! And German Jews who sniffed contemptuously at living in the Middle East ran like mice from the dripping jaws of the evil animals out to kill them.
This had all happened before. And Jews would pack up, go to the land of some other goyisher prince and pray that he wouldn't kill them, tax them unfairly, rape their wives. And always the goyisher princes eventually disappointed them. But now the opportunity to go to the Land of Israel was available, and these German Jews took it joyfully. The population of Israel did not grow merely because of natural increase. Jews from round the world fled the various hells they lived in seeking refuge and security from the goyim.
What American Jews keep telling themselves is "it can't happen here". In January, 1963, I watched a movie with my mother on TV when the movie was interrupted by a news bulletin announcing the overthrow and murder of Sylvanus Olympio. My nother told me, "that can't happen here". Being the sarcastic snot I was, I said "yeah?"
Eleven months later, the president of the United States was murdered in a car in Dallas. So, when American Jews say, "it can't happen here," I remember the dead Sylvanus Olympio and my mother's false optimism.
The day will come when Jews in America will be blamed for the bad times that strike you, (¼ of non-Jew already blame Jews for the economic problems there now) and when the accusation of Jews stabbing you in the back will be common speech - and people will want to do something to get the greedy yids back.
There is no future in the exile for the Jewish people. In exile, they can only be the sugar in someone else's coffee - destined to be absorbed and to cease to exist. Giving up on Israel is the equivalent of walking into a gas chamber and having the gas murder your identity, if not you. That has already happened to millions of Jews in Europe, America and South America, a silent holocaust that does not kill people - but that surely kills a People.
Your solution has been tried for 2,000 years and it is a non-starter, leading in the to rape, murder and massacre.
In addition, you fail to take into account the Jewish books of prophecy that predict the return of our people to our land. A prophecy is only good if it happens. And the return of Jews to Israel en masse has happened, the revival of the Hebrew language has happened. The warnings in the Talmud that the Galilee would be destroyed in war has happened, the warning that "three buildings would fall on one day in the New City" from the Holy Zohar has happened. Discounting Jewish prophecy, when it keeps happening is not smart, Sasha, and you discount Jewish prophecy as though it did not even exist. This is not wise, no matter what faith you believe (or do not believe) in. If the predictions of an old tome keep recurring, it is wise to pay attention to it.
There is a prophecy that can be interpreted to mean that a nuclear bomb will explode in Israel: it describes the kinds of things that would happen to people facing where the bomb exploded from a distance. Before the development of nuclear weapons, this prophecy never would have been read this way, and it was read instead as a mysterious plague.
And this shall be the plague wherewith HaShem will smite all the peoples that have warred against Jerusalem: their flesh shall consume away while they stand upon their feet, and their eyes shall consume away in their sockets, and their tongue shall consume away in their mouth. [Zechariah 14:12] Jewish Publication Society, 1917.
Slightly different language is found in newer translations of the Zechariah.
60 - Baronius
Wow, Ruvy, I'm sorry. I've been totally misreading your comments for years now. You're Jewish?
61 - Clavos
LOL, Bar!!
62 - Ruvy
Sasha,
I do not know if you are Jewish or not, but it appears to me from the consonance of your remarks that you do0 not understand Jewish history.
Jews were forced into exile by the Romans over a 600 year period, during which they (the Romans) committed what amounted to genocide against us in our land, in Cyprus, Egypt, Cyrenaica, and other parts of the empire. The result was that Jews fled east to Babylon, and west to Europe.
Since the destruction of the Temple of Herod in 70 CE there has been NO security in Jewish communal life.
Since we've returned home, that security has begun to return, to a small degree. And I cannot emphasize this too strongly, this is home.
In reality, Jews should abandon the idea of Israel being the sole hope of the Jewish people, the sole redemption of world Jewry. Not that they should abandon Israel entirely, but they should instead focus on countries that have a deeply ingrained history of tolerance and plurality. The goal is preserving the history and integrity of the Jewish people, and this is not a goal that can ultimately be achieved through military means.
When I was a kid, I lived in Brooklyn. At the time, one of our family friends talked of moving to Israel. I looked at him and told him that there are more Jews in New York City than all of Israel? Why would any Jew want to move there?
Now, consider, Sasha. Today, instead of 2.1 million Jews living in Israel and 2½ million living in New York City, over 5½ million Jews live in Israel. And in a city of 8 million, the same population as there was 50 years ago, there are only 1.75 million Jews. The demographics have fundamentally changed and Israel is the center of Jewish life, not America, a fact that American Jews do not particularly like - if they care about being Jews at all.
Then there is the simple concept that if Jews give up Israel, they might as well forget about being Jews. When you say grace after meals, you pray for the rebuilding of Jerusalem; three times a day, you pray that G-d will gather His exiles from the four corners of the earth and bring them home. Now if you do none of these things after a generation or two, you forget who you are - except when the goyim talk about jewing down the price of something or the Jews killing Jesus or some other bullshit - or when someone decides to kill you because you are a Jew. The German Jews all thought Berlin was better than Jerusalem - until the Germans began beating the shit out of them, smashing the windows of their stores, banning them from working in banks, schools, etc., making them wear yellow stars, stealing their property. All of a sudden, Jerusalem started looking very very good! And German Jews who sniffed contemptuously at living in the Middle East ran like mice from the dripping jaws of the evil animals out to kill them.
This had all happened before. And Jews would pack up, go to the land of some other goyisher prince and pray that he wouldn't kill them, tax them unfairly, rape their wives. And always the goyisher princes eventually disappointed them. But now the opportunity to go to the Land of Israel was available, and these German Jews took it joyfully. The population of Israel did not grow merely because of natural increase. Jews from round the world fled the various hells they lived in seeking refuge and security from the goyim.
What American Jews keep telling themselves is "it can't happen here". In January, 1963, I watched a movie with my mother on TV when the movie was interrupted by a news bulletin announcing the overthrow and murder of Sylvanus Olympio. My nother told me, "that can't happen here". Being the sarcastic snot I was, I said "yeah?"
Eleven months later, the president of the United States was murdered in a car in Dallas. So, when American Jews say, "it can't happen here," I remember the dead Sylvanus Olympio and my mother's false optimism.
The day will come when Jews in America will be blamed for the bad times that strike you, (¼ of non-Jew already blame Jews for the economic problems there now) and when the accusation of Jews stabbing you in the back will be common speech - and people will want to do something to get the greedy yids back.
There is no future in the exile for the Jewish people. In exile, they can only be the sugar in someone else's coffee - destined to be absorbed and to cease to exist. Giving up on Israel is the equivalent of walking into a gas chamber and having the gas murder your identity, if not you. That has already happened to millions of Jews in Europe, America and South America, a silent holocaust that does not kill people - but that surely kills a People.
Your solution has been tried for 2,000 years and it is a non-starter, leading in the to rape, murder and massacre.
In addition, you fail to take into account the Jewish books of prophecy that predict the return of our people to our land. A prophecy is only good if it happens. And the return of Jews to Israel en masse has happened, the revival of the Hebrew language has happened. The warnings in the Talmud that the Galilee would be destroyed in war has happened, the warning that "three buildings would fall on one day in the New City" from the Holy Zohar has happened. Discounting Jewish prophecy, when it keeps happening is not smart, Sasha, and you discount Jewish prophecy as though it did not even exist. This is not wise, no matter what faith you believe (or do not believe) in. If the predictions of an old tome keep recurring, it is wise to pay attention to it.
There is a prophecy that can be interpreted to mean that a nuclear bomb will explode in Israel: it describes the kinds of things that would happen to people facing where the bomb exploded from a distance. Before the development of nuclear weapons, this prophecy never would have been read this way, and it was read instead as a mysterious plague.
And this shall be the plague wherewith HaShem will smite all the peoples that have warred against Jerusalem: their flesh shall consume away while they stand upon their feet, and their eyes shall consume away in their sockets, and their tongue shall consume away in their mouth. [Zechariah 14:12] Jewish Publication Society, 1917.
Slightly different language is found in newer translations of the Zechariah.
63 - roger nowosielski
Ruvy,
You keep on posting the same message over and over again. Repeating it ad infinitum is not going to make it any more true.
64 - Ruvy
The truth shouldn't need constant repetition, Roger. And I'm telling the truth. All sorts of idiots on this list can't seem to comprehend this. I won't mention any names, though, tempted though I am, Roger.
65 - Ruvy
The truth should not have to be repeated endlessly Roger - but idiots who can't figure it out need it repeated.
If you have trouble realizing that what I'm telling is the truth, well, what can I say? The comments policy forbids personal attacks, you know.
66 - Baronius
Ruvy - I think Roger was being literal, that the thread did have the exact same comment from you repeated over and over. As of this moment, #59 and #62 are the same, and there had been more copies.
67 - roger nowosielski
Yes, I was, Baronius. And thank you.
68 - Cindy
I live in the US where it is a truth, acknowledged by most sensible people, that people in Europe are so deluded that they have no idea what's right or wrong. - Dave
There is a reason to be grateful for not having been able to have children--Dave could never have been their teacher.
69 - Sasha Shepherd
Ruvy,
Thank you for your well thought out and interesting reply. While I have some Jewish blood, I am not Jewish, you are right. But I certainly understand the plight and challenges the Jewish people have faced, and I understand why Israel was founded and why some feel so passionately about it. I am not questioning the goal of preserving the Jewish People in security, I am talking strategically about the best way to do that.
I am arguing that there is a value in diaspora - especially in this interconnected age where everyone knows what is going on in each corner of the globe, and it is possible to stay connected through all sorts of circumstances.
Yes, now there are five million Jews living in Israel..surrounded on all sides by hostile and unstable nations with the possibility to acquire nuclear weapons in the next decade, from one source or another.
It is never wise to put all your eggs in one basket, that is what I am arguing there. If these scriptural prophecies have all come to pass, then is there any way to prevent this grim prophecy that you cite? It seems the best defense is to spread the Torah to the four corners of the globe.
Presently, there is some ambivelance among the Arab populations about Israel. Certainly, the vast majority strongly dislike it. But, not all support violent action against Israel. Most people are more interested in their day to day affairs, putting food on the table, and their personal safety that geopolitics - as the people of Israel are.
If Israel should take an action that threatens the health and safety of the whole Arab population, as blanketing the middle east in nuclear fallout would, the focus of day to day survival for many people would start to center around eradicating Israel. We could expect to see more and more radical government elected around the region, with leadership whose whole raison d'etre is landing a nuclear device inside Israel, like Iran today but worse. Eventually, someone would find a way to smuggle one out of Pakistan.
In the very long term, a nuclear first strike on Iran would be used to justify genocide of Jews 500 years in the future. In the interest of short term security, it would be a catastrophically suicidal move for the Jewish people.
It would be worth studying Sun Tzu's Art of War, or perhaps Newton's Third Law of of Motion.
Sasha
70 - Ruvy
Sasha,
There is set of another prophecies, one that was made in 1930 by the scholar known in Jewish circles as Hafetz Haim, a Polish scholar who lived in Radin Poland, and who died in 1933.
The Hafetz Haim had warned in 1930 that in a decade there would be horrors for Jews in Europe that would make the then recent Great War, and the Russo-Polish war that followed, look like a picnic in the park. A yeshiva head, a man who took the Hafetz Hayim seriously, asked him if there would be any escapees from this disaster, and where the escape would be. The Hafetz Haim cited the Torah in giving his answer, which he gave immediately. He said that Jacob, when facing his brother Esav after crossing the river Yabok in the north, divided his camp in two in case Esav should kill one, that the other would survive. The yeshiva head, reassured slightly, asked where the surviving camp might be. The Hafetz Haim cited the Tana"kh, saying that the people would be safe in the Land of Israel.
The Hafetz Haim accurately foretold of the death camps that killed 95% of the Jews in Poland, and a third of our people. And he accurately foretold of where the remainder would be safe - Israel. Notice, Sasha. The Hafetz Haim did not say the Americas or Australia. Why? Because whilt the physical Jew was safe in America and Australia, the spirit of the Jew was not - and that is what has happened in the last 6 decades to Jews in the once prosperous United States and the still prosperous Australia. Their identity is being worn away.
The cold fact of the matter is that the exile is almost over. Jews who insist on remaining in exile will find that unless they tie their fates closely to Israel, their Jewish identity will die also. And this too, is happening. Only in Israel will Jewish identity survive.
Further, Sasha, Persians are not Arabs. Arabs are nervous about Persians, and taking them out will relieve Arab anxiety about being taken over by the Persians once more.
In addition, do not assume that the Arabs can win in a war against us. The Egyptian leadership is not stupid, and understands the terrible Achilles Heel in the south of their country. Go look at the article again. A government that destroys Tehran will not stop at destroying Egypt entirely if threatened. Similar dangers lie in place for the Thugdom of the Wahhabi. The Arabs may rage in the streets - but they always rage in the streets. Beating up on the evil Zionist is nothing new to them. Burning the flag that bears the Shield of Solomon is nothing new either. And the American regime, always anti-Israel covertly, is now shedding its mask and becoming overtly anti-Israel. There is nothing to lose here for us.
Only one danger lies ahead. If our nuclear weapons are indeed duds, as one commenter posited that they might be at this point, then we have no nuclear arsenal - and if we have no nuclear arsenal, then our enemies will surely strike, sure that they can win and massacre us, wiping us from the face of the earth.
The possibility that our nuclear arsenal might be duds is the only reason not to use them - and not to sign the NPT either, as this preserves the illusion that they still might be useful. It is the one possibility I did not consider in my article.
As for the rest, we are in G-d's Hands, and must rely on Him. But the truth is that we are always in G-d's Hand, and always must rely on Him. This vulnerability drives the point home.
Finally, let's deal with this observation of yours.
In the very long term, a nuclear first strike on Iran would be used to justify genocide of Jews 500 years in the future. In the interest of short term security, it would be a catastrophically suicidal move for the Jewish people.
The faith promises Redemption at the End of Days. Looking at events and the way they are occurring now indicates that the End of Days are upon us - NOW. Our sages posit a cycle of time of 6,000 years and that Redemption will occur at the very latest, at the end of that 6,000 year cycle. The cycle ends in 231 years. But they argue that the Redemption will occur 210 years prior. That's 21 years from now.
If we are still awaiting the messianic Redemption after 210 years, most Jews will throw in the towel and say "screw it, we were played for suckers". Today's rabbis are just to cowardly to come up with something that will suffice if 2,000 years of Talmudic teaching proves false.
71 - roger nowosielski
Too cowardly? That would be like pulling the rabbit out of the hat.
72 - Baronius
Ruvy, you and I both believe in prophecy. The problem is, we don't know when it will come to pass. It's easy to read Ezekiel's bleached bones and think of the recent restoration of Israel, but it could just as easily refer to a prior restoration of Israel, or a future one.
You mentioned St. Malacy's prophecy about the popes, which indicates that there will only be one more. Yeah, it's ominous, but we don't know for certain that it's correct, or even that it was intended to be a complete list. You refer to your sages and a 6000 year cycle, but is that universally agreed upon? Sages have seen the final hour upon us since the beginning of history. You can't even really say that "our sages" posit any one thing.
You'd have to be a fool to not see the potential fulfillment of prophecy in our days. But should we be betting on it? People saw it in 70AD, in the Crusades, in the Napoleanic era, and in the birth of the atomic bomb.
73 - Ruvy
Baronius,
You'd have to be a fool to not see the potential fulfillment of prophecy in our days. But should we be betting on it? People saw it in 70AD, in the Crusades, in the Napoleanic era, and in the birth of the atomic bomb.
Every time I talk about prophecy, I qualify it somehow. In the case of St. Malachy, I said it was a prophecy of sorts. It seems to me that the Vatican may be behaving as if it believes that the prophecy is true.
Also, with this particular prophecy, there is the issue of human choice. Whichever red-hat succeeds Ratzinger as Bishop of Rome can choose the name "Peter". Remember, Joseph Ratzinger has chosen to be known as Benedict, Karol Wojtla chose to be known as John Paul II.
As for the prophecies in the Hebrew Bible, I've mentioned those in comment #62 that have appeared to come true already. The warnings of the Hafetz Haim HAVE come true already. As for the cycle of time in the rabbinic calendar, if Redemption does not come "on time" that will be the straw that breaks the back of a religion of remembrance. "On time" by the numbers gives us 231 years - but according to Talmudic tradition, it is supposed to have been completed by the year 5790 - 20 years from now, come October.
Even patient Jews will wait only so long. If they feel that they have been played for suckers by their teachers (these teachings are pretty old), they will turn on their teachers and walk away from the faith.
I believe with full faith that Redemption will occur, and that it will occur within the timetable our sages have set forth - and I am certain that it will occur within 231 years. But if my great-grandson or great-great grandson does not see the Redemption, I cannot guarantee their full faith.
I don't ever bet on prophecy coming true. If I think I see it occurring, however, I will not hesitate to say so.
74 - Mark Schannon
It's interesting that no one has commented on Ruvy's numerous statements that he hates this nuclear solution--finds it abhorrent --but can't think of another way to erase the threat Persia clearly poses for Israel.
First, anyone who doubts that the lunatics in Teheran have been backing Israel's most dangerous enemies needs to stop writing and start reading.
Second, from an Israeli point of view, how can one evaluate the risks of a Iranian nuke hitting Israel should the loonies create one?
Third, if an honest and thorough risk assessment of the likelihood of a nuclear attack leads one to consider it a grave threat...and other options (U.S. or NATO intervention, commando attacks to take out Iranian leadership, conventional bombing, etc.) are determined to be either unrealistic or unworkable...then what should Israel do?
Option 1: Do nothing, aware that the international community doesn't have the balls to confront Iran, and knowing there's a high risk of being deep fried in a nuclear holocaust.
OR
Option 2: Strike first, understanding that one can not begin to guess what the consequences will be.
OR
Option 3: Leave Israel and invade Lithuania.
Ruvy can be a mite didactic and strident at times. It's part of his charm. But to reject what's he's saying because it offends our delicate sensibilities, we living safely in a land where torture and invasion of our privacy have given us that illusion of safety, is to mount a box in Hyde Park and orate to the pigeons.
In other comments, I've noted that I cannot see a road to peace, nor can I see a reasonable end-game with Ruvy's proposal.
This intractable dilemma deserves serious debate. It's not getting it here.
And that's the truth...
In Jameson Veritas
75 - Dr Dreadful
it describes the kinds of things that would happen to people facing where the bomb exploded from a distance.
From a distance? No. The whole flesh-stripping thing would be reserved for those within radius of the initial airburst.
From a distance, if you were unlucky enough to be looking directly at the explosion, you'd probably go instantly and permanently blind. That, however, would be about it - unless you were stupid enough to stick around and cop some fallout, but the symptoms of radiation poisoning are not what is described in the prophecy.