I have calculated that our individual public opinion occupies a space of 334,540,800 cubic inches: 1 mile wide times I mile long times 1 inch deep. Where is unimportant. Our problem is that the over-reporting of polling data is too much with us. The statistical size of the undecided vote suggests that there is no huge shift in public opinion. The much touted anger and rage being recited to us every minute, real time, has a flood of money behind it to exaggerate and agitate on advertising-based visual media.
The reason for this agitation is contrary to what is being reported.The midterm races are not that close. However, if they appear to be close, then the more beer, cars, and pills to treat erectile dysfunction can be sold.
Money is flowing into media to go after the undecided vote to be sure. A flood of money will be spent on negative advertising, but I question just how undecided voters really are. Depending upon which group of pundits one hears or which newspaper opinion page one reads, the rhetoric tends to fall along For-Obama or Against-Obama lines. Yet neither of those arguments convinces anybody of anything.
Washington Post columnist David Broder notes, “The history of midterm elections shows regular gains for the opposition party, and so far all the polls look upbeat for the GOP.” However, the flaw in the polling argument is that of voters not aligned to either political party. They are not undecided. They are nondecided. If they vote, it will probably be across a previous party affiliation they had, grudgingly or not. As a result the survey numbers are rendered ambiguous — a best guess.
Furthermore, voter turnout is low in midterm elections. FairVote.org says, “Turnout in midterm elections is far lower, peaking at 48.7% in 1966 and falling as low as 39.0% in 1978,1986, and 1998 remaining below 50% in midterm elections.” What that suggests is that so long as the election rules are consistent, “the same electorate can result in 60% turnout in one election and 2% in another depending on what is on the ballot and whether the election has essentially already been decided.”
“It ain’t over until it’s over.” Yogi Berra also said, “Baseball is 90% mental — the 
other half is physical." So it goes with polling. The non-closeness of the elections, I contend, accounts for the weakness of the Republican candidates from amateurs such as Rand Paul, Meg Whitman, and Carly Fiorina to political hacks like Jan Brewer and Sharron Angle.
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Article comments
1 - Victor Lana
I'd say most of the polls are as on the money as that Yogi Berra math. Let the pollsters blabber all they want, and the voters will end up voting the way they want anyway.
2 - jeannie danna
Tommy,
This looks like a good read. I will return later...
:D bye for now.
3 - jeannie danna
They should save their money, because we aren't going back!
Money is flowing into media to go after the undecided vote to be sure. A flood of money will be spent on negative advertising, but I question just how undecided voters really are.
:D I don't think anyone is undecided.
4 - Dr Dreadful
You don't think anyone is undecided...?
;-)
5 - jeannie danna
If they are, they're idiots.
;D
6 - Tommy Mack
Name calling, JD? Tut-tut.
Would I be wrong in thinking you were trying to say something else like non-thinkers, perhaps?
Dr. is succint.
Tommy
[insert face thing here]
7 - jeannie danna
Yes, I guess I was, Tommy
Doc might be terse, but that doesn't make his words correct. At least, not in reference to the next election.
I should have used the word, fools... damn, missed my opportunity!
JD- No face thingy here. LOL
8 - Baronius
"The deficit is not a real issue for the midterm elections, which are state elections. The deficit, part of the economy, is an issue of federal elections."
I don't know exactly what that means, but it's wrong.
9 - Tommy Mack
Good eye. "Typically" is the missing modifier. Thanks.