As news came in that Christine O'Donnell had pulled off a major upset in the Republican primary in Delaware, experts who had predicted her defeat and Republican party leaders who had supported establishment favorite Mike Castle against her were embarrassed, confounded and ultimately angry.
Despite predictions of low turnout and a close race, and despite her own state party leader leading a very dirty campaign against her and despite the mdeia writing her off, O'Donnell won by a solid 6% and turnout was double what had been predicted.
Immediately, media experts began declaring that this was a disaster for the Republican Party because pre-primary polling showed O'Donnell running much less well than Castle against Democrat nominee Chris Coons. The talking point has become that Castle was a winner and O'Donnell is a guaranteed loser and that the Tea Party which had supported her had now cost the GOP an easy seat gain in the Senate.
In keeping with their disastrous record of supporting all the wrong candidates in this year's primaries, the National Republican Senatorial Committee was right out in front of this issue with exactly the wrong response, declaring through the Wall Street Journal that they had no intention of spending any money to support O'Donnell, writing her off as a loser.
As results came in, pundits were pointing to a recent Rasmussen poll and declaring that 44% of the Republicans who voted for Castle are going to switch parties in the general election and vote for Coons and that is going to cost O'Donnell the race. It's on this trend that they base their prediction of a hard loss for O'Donnell.
But someone in the political/media establishment is either lying or not very good at math. This calculation seems to have been based on the assumption that if O'Donnell loses all those hardcore Republican votes that will doom her, but the math does not support that conclusion. It does not take into consideration the disparity of Republican and Democrat voter turnout. In fact, if the same number of voters turn out who voted in the primary in both parties and 44% of the Republicans who voted for Castle switch to Coons, O'Donnell will actually win the election by about 2000 votes and 2 percentage points.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - jeannie danna
The National Republican Senatorial Committee will not fund Del. GOP nominee Christine O'Donnell.
Fly in the ointment?
2 - jeannie danna
Can you picture this person making stressful decisions as an elected official?
"For at least six months after being fired, Miss O’Donnell suffered enormous pain, cried frequently at the sense of personal loss and failure caused by ISI, and at the sense of injustice, and could not sleep at night, often wide-awake, replaying the whole scene in her mind, until 5:30 am, and has suffered from understandable and resulting depression."
JD - Thanks, Dave :D
3 - Dave Nalle
Sounds about as rational as Nancy Pelosi, although perhaps somewhat more sensitive.
And that's a quote from a workplace discrimination lawsuit. You can imagine how seriously I tak eit.
Dave
4 - Baronius
This reminds me a lot of Reagan in 1980. The experts have just proven that, whatever else they may know, they don't know how to guage the ability of this particular candidate to come from behind and win, and that very night they're on the TV saying that this candidate won't be able to win in the general election.
On another note, in all the many discussions I've had about third party movements, there's one scenario I'd never considered: that one of the major parties would give up its ability to influence elections. If O'Donnell wins, it'll send a message that the Republican machine is disposable.
5 - Ruvy
I have to agree with Baronius as to the value of the GOP's leadership. I sense that the GOP leadership will find itself nudged out of a lot of places it takes for granted. It is so nice to see the arrogant American media slobbocracy proven wrong by the people they consistently try to mislead.
6 - handyguy
Many, many Republicans and Conservatives ranging from Karl Rove to, yes, Dave Nalle have questioned Ms. O'Donnell's bona fides to be a good US senator.
Delaware is a pretty blue state. Unless Coons runs an utterly inept campaign, it should not be too hard to portray O'Donnell as a nutty, substance-free extremist, since that's what she is.
It may be exciting to ride the tiger of an extremist wave that keeps nominating weirdos. But then when you wake up the morning after, you will realize either: the weirdos lost the GOP several seats; or, worse from my point of view, the weirdos are going to actually hold office -- and gain the ability to do real damage.
7 - jeannie danna
You need to take it seriously, Dave, that was her testimony.
And don't try to equate un-rational behavior with being female. I've seen plenty of un-rational men(Fox News).
JD
8 - jeannie danna
O'Donnell is certainly no Reagan.
9 - jeannie danna
it should not be too hard to portray O'Donnell as a nutty, substance-free extremist, since that's what she is.
Mind if I tweet this, handyguy?
:D
10 - Arch ConscienceStain
This just proves that the incredibly stupid voters are madder than the merely dumb ones.
11 - jeannie danna
dumb is the name you hide behind...
12 - jeannie danna
#10 ? or what's it's name.
13 - Baronius
Look, I'm not saying that O'Donnell is Reagan. I'm saying that the experts don't understand her.
Castle had a lot of negatives. He ran a terrible campaign in which he didn't distinguish himself from his potential Democratic opponent. He didn't try to win over O'Donnell's supporters; he looked down on them for being stupid. He's a bland, establishment, compromiser, and maybe those kind of candidates can coast to victory most years, but he's a fool for thinking he could do it this year.
The supposed experts are fools for not figuring that out.
As for O'Donnell herself, the first thing to note is that she's gorgeous. And if she's crazy, guess what, most guys are suckers for hot, crazy single women. Ask any guy about the craziest good-looking woman he's ever gotten involved with, and he'll shake his head with regret - but he'll be smiling.
And don't write her off as "substance-free". I don't know if she believes any of the positions she's taken, or even understands them, but based on the things she's said, her voting record is likely to be a lot more appealing to Republicans than Castle's would be. Even to Delaware Republicans (who are not genetically different from anyone else in the country).
14 - El Bicho
"guess what, most guys are suckers for hot, crazy single women."
yeah, to have sex with, not represent them, and since O'Donnell doesn't even believe in masturbation let alone pre-martial sex, your political analysis is misguided.
15 - zingzing
el bicho, your point is verily, extremely, incredibly valid. if she won't jerk me off and fuck me while rubbing one out for herself (she has three arms and two crotches, as i understand it), then i don't care how good looking she is. also, if i'm from delaware and she's serving in washington, she can't reach me. especially if it's cold.
16 - handyguy
Republicans had been nominating and then, with independents and probably some Dems, re-electing Castle to the House for a long time now. There are some parts of the country where being a moderate might not be an advantage. I don't believe Delaware is one of them.
And...the state went for Obama 62%-37% two years ago. Not a swing state.
17 - jeannie danna
"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying the cross." -- Sinclair Lewis
Now I am going to change my Twitter pic!(it's a flag)
18 - jeannie danna
We are not going to allow a handful of media sponsored? and supported nuts run this country.
Please take it all down a notch, before Baronius blows a gasket.
:O Take a deep breath and relax...
19 - Dan(Miller)
The Chairman of the RNC has issued a statement promising support for the party's unexpected candidate and begging for money. The begging for money part seems to have vanished from the link but can be found here. It says, among other things,
Please make an urgent contribution of $50, $75 or $100 to RNC Victory today to help fully fund the Victory Centers in Delaware and across the nation that are the key to winning the 39 seats in the House we need to Fire Nancy Pelosi and the ten we must capture in the Senate to Retire Harry Reid.
, the RNC is the only Party committee dedicated to supporting ALL of our Republican candidates -- from the county courthouse to Congress. And we are the only national GOP organization with the ability to rush resources and direct financial support to our candidates who need it most.
Your 2010 election contribution today is critical to ensuring Christine O'Donnell and every Republican candidate receives the get-out-the-vote and campaign support they need to fight back and win an historic victory for our Party and our country on November 2nd. Please give as generously as you can.
There are tears in my eyes because I laughed so hard at Steele's e-mail. The poor demented Ms. O'Donnell with all the baggage and no party support didn't have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning either the nomination or the election.
Hell just froze over.
I think it may have to do with global warming.
Dan(Miller)
20 - Baronius
I don't get how an institution with its finger on the pulse of politics circa 1984 expects people to send money to them. It's very easy to send money to support campaigns directly or to find groups that aggregate funds and distribute them to candidates who support your favorite causes. I take that back. The RNC has its finger on the pulse of campaign technology circa 1984.
21 - Dan(Miller)
Baronius,
I don't get how an institution with its finger on the pulse of politics circa 1984 expects people to send money to them.
That may be part of the problem. Their fingers are in the wrong places, including people's lives and pocketbooks.
Dan(Miller)
22 - jeannie danna
Hell just froze over.
No it didn't, that was a closed primary, nothing to write home about...
JD
23 - John Wilson
Some republicans say the TEA party hurt them in this election.
24 - handyguy
If Ms. O'Donnell were actually to become a member of the US Senate, would Dan welcome the ridiculous development with more tears of laughter and/or joy? Do either you or Baronius actually think this spokesmodel would be a good senator? Or even a competent senator? She is worse than Michele Bachmann.
25 - Braden
I think she could win too, Dave. Considering that she was once 2 points ahead of Coons and the fact that the political wind is at the back of conservative Republicans, she's got a pathway to victory. Good post, sir.