Following the two primary races yesterday in Indiana and North Carolina, it's clearly the beginning of the end for Clinton's "comeback kid" primary run. She needed both states. The "solidly in the tank for Obama" media covered the races yesterday with the irrational exuberance that we've all come to expect of them.
CNN reported on their front page today that "Obama sweeps N.C.; Clinton ekes out Indiana," when in reality the percentage difference between the two races was five percentage points (Indiana: 51% to 49%, North Carolina: 56% to 42%). Considering that Obama won primarily because of upscale and black voters in NC, while Clinton dominated in the rural areas, taking 42% of the total vote, it's hard to understand how CNN could use the term "sweep." Add to that the expectation that he would potentially win both states (Indiana by his own reckoning, was the tie-breaker), and was originally supposed to win by double digit percentage in North Carolina, a lead that wound up actually only being 6%, this is hardly the showing that his campaign really expected, and well short of a sweep. That said, regardless of how the win was colored by the media, barring any additional drama, Obama is now well on his way to face McCain in the General.
While the race with Clinton is all but over at this point, it's left the Democratic party with a candidate who is badly beaten and bruised. Many Democrats are questioning the wisdom of the vote results. Many feel that while Obama has rallied Democratic primary voters, he's also irreparably damaged his candidacy in the general. Moreover, it's the divisive way that Obama won that generates concern among general election voters.
Obama, the trans-racial and post-partisan candidate, took fully 91% of the African American vote in North Carolina. His only chance of winning Indiana was by sweeping Gary, a heavily African American city. Pro-Obama pundits (are there any other kind?) were quick to explain away this clear voting along racial lines, suggesting that blacks did vote for Clinton until she offended them with a string of possibly racial comments made by her husband, as well as with some of the negative attacks made by her campaign. Back here in reality land, the true story is quite the opposite. Blacks didn't respect Obama, didn't think he could win. In fact, they even questioned his "blackness." Once the media got the word out that whites could take Obama seriously, that he could win the primary, and after getting a taste of Obamamania, African Americans all got in line behind him and started voting.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Dr Dreadful
OA, your math is a little creative - to what end, I'm not clear on.
A 5% difference between the winning percentages in the two races is utterly meaningless considering they were, well, two separate races and had different winners.
More egregiously, the victory margin for Obama in NC was not 6%, it was 14%.
Finally, Clinton showing strongly in rural areas doesn't mean squat if the majority of the electorate is urban.
2 - The Obnoxious American
Doc,
The point is, it's a slim majority. Not a sweep by any stretch. Agreed that the difference in their vote counts was 14%, but I think you get my point in terms of the way each race was characterized side by side. The difference seperating each winner was 5%, yet one race was an "eke by," the other a sweep. Not so much...
3 - El Bicho
how did NC go from 14% to 6% for Obama? and I am not sure what channels you watch, but all I heard and read was that Hillary was supposed to win IN
4 - ProgressiveNotLiberal
Equal time demands that you give the same irrational interpretations to women and racists voting for Hillary. It is only fair now isn't it?
5 - Doug Hunter
PNL,
When whites are racist enough to vote 90+% on skin color then we can devote equal time to exposing that.
6 - Dr Dreadful
Obnox, in terms of elections, especially two-way races, 51-49 is a squeak. It's roughly the margin by which Bush beat Kerry.
56-42 is a thumping win by any standards. Transposed (for the sake of argument) to a presidential race, it would give the winner a landslide victory.
Now, it remains to be seen whether the white cohort that backed Hillary more strongly will be persuaded to vote for Obama in the general. I think most of them will. After all, remember all those right-wing Republicans (including, notably, Arch Conservative on this site) who a couple of months ago were swearing in their own blood that they'd never vote for McCain in a million years if he won the nomination... and have now shuffled meekly into line, grumbling to themselves?
But that really isn't - or shouldn't be - Obama's major worry. His biggest concern, now that the primary season is (thank goodness!) almost over, is that most of the states he won usually lean Republican. If he can win over a few of those to the blue team, he'll be OK in November, but it won't be at all easy.
BTW, not sure what happened to the other 2% of the vote in NC. Presumably it went to write-ins, minor candidates or withdrawees whose names were still on the ballot. But it does point up another interesting statistic: Clinton performed 9 percentage points more poorly in NC than in IN, whereas Obama was only down 7 points in IN vs. NC. Make of that what you will.
7 - Lee Richards
I am not currently a huge fan of Obama but here are some observations and opinions:
Republicans didn't learn anything from nominating Bob Dole because "it was his turn." A number of Republicans told me at the time it was a dumb way to try to win elections. McCain is Dole all over again.
In Virginia, the Democrats are energized, the Republicans are slogging on. Unless there's a big upset, red state VA will have 2 Democratic senators in January, and could go D for the president.
Bush-Cheney have turned off many independents I talk to. Rightly or not, they perceive the Bush Republicans as having an "I got mine, screw you" attitude, and as shills for the religious right.
A Democrat wins by running against Bush's economy, Bush's war, and Bush's foreign policy blunders and domestic failures.
I voted in a city council election yesterday and one of the election officials was talking loudly to one of his friends(that he greeted and called by name.) He wanted to talk about the Nov. elections and told his friend--and everyone else in hearing: "McCain's the only one running. I sure ain't voting for the Muslim". He repeated this several times, laughing every time he said, "the Muslim."
The most interesting part is that his friend stopped talking to him and walked away, and another man said out loud, "Well, there's a nice bit of lying and prejudice for you."
I think racism as a tactic will convince some who want to be convinced, but ultimately backfire because it makes a lot of decent people on all sides of the political spectrum sick.
8 - Zedd
Obnoxious
I agree with you on the notion that Blacks were not sure about Obama, much like all of Americans. When he started to look more like a sure thing, Blacks supported him.
However, I would venture to guess that the only thing that Hillary has got going for her right now is that she is White. If she were a Black women (same stump speeches and "experience"), the race would have been over a long time ago and we would be looking at a certain McCain Presidency.
The Black vote is because Obama is the person who seems to be most capable of understanding the issues that affect Blacks in America. Go figure.
Your math is off. You article would have been fine without the quibble about the margin. The numbers reflect what has been stated. Leave it alone.
9 - Tom
Obama will be the weaker candidate in the general election because of the swing states and independents. They are not impressed with Obamamania and will vote accordingly. Remember, this is a primary, and the prize is in November. If the superdelegates don't nominate Hillary and the DNC doesn't allow Florida and Michigan delegates to vote at the covention, the Repuplicans will win. Republican crossover voting is a Trojan horse and Wall Street money in Obama's pocket will make it so. Wake up Dems, your being taken for a ride, again.
10 - Doug Hunter
"I think racism as a tactic will convince some who want to be convinced, but ultimately backfire because it makes a lot of decent people on all sides of the political spectrum sick."
I don't know about that. It seems to work well, 91% of the black population can't be wrong. I somehow doubt that sort of race bias makes you sick, perhaps you're just one of the ones 'who want to be convinced'. We'll see if it backfires on Obama in November.
As for the original article, unfortunately Obama can't be the postracial candidate since by definition labelling him that means his race is still a factor. Ironically, if he weren't the 'postracial candidate' he'd be more likely to be the postracial candidate. It will be an interesting election in any case. There are several racial factors at play. I can think of three off the top of my head.
1) Black racial view and victim groupthink. This one has resulted in the 90+ percent wins amongst the black population for Obama. Unfortunately, blacks must think of themselves as black first and individuals second. The problem is that the black vote in the general election was never in question so this effect has already been factored into politics. It's a question of turnout how much this will matter.
2)White racism. There is a percentage of the white population who, in the private confines of the voting booth, will not vote their ideology and will instead vote their race. Racism is alive and well and although it is a relatively small percentage of the electorate it will factor quite a bit into the election. The reason for it's importance is that it has not been accounted for before because we've never had a black candidate before. A swing vote if I ever heard one.
3) White guilt. This is why people feel the need to preface a statement remotely related to racial issues with their black friend connection (I fall victim as well and have sunk to mentioning my Puerto Rican wife before to prove my postracial merit) Colleges and corporations are where this runs rampant. A corporation can't have a 'black friend' per se, but it can have a diversity program or office, the same goes for colleges. The news media is the corporate world and they desperately want Obama to be their 'black friend' to prove how they aren't tainted by slavery and racism of the past. Colleges have done their job and years of diversity programs, orientations, and mandatory courses to promote white guilt have worked, adding more educated folks into Obama's count. This effect is the big question mark awaiting us in November and I have no idea how it will play out.
Overall, I think white guilt couple with high homogenous black turnout will trump white racism as far as the racial component goes. The question becomes whether or not the positive race effects for Obama can overcome his far left policy positions as opposed to a centrist like McCain. When you throw in the Trump card, Bush's failures, I think we will end up having our first black president. Exactly 2,345,891 thinks could change between now and election though.
11 - Zedd
Doug,
Perhaps I am off base on this one. I don't think that people would hit a button in a private booth because of White guilt. I think that Obama is good. His message and manner resonnates. He is different and there is no time in history than now that we've needed different more.
12 - Arch Conservative
"Perhaps I am off base on this one. I don't think that there's anything wrong with people who would hit a button in a private booth because of White guilt. I think that Obama is god. Resistance is futile."
Gee Zedd..where to begin.
You like the other Obama cultists seemed to have gotten lost amidst the audacity of bullshit and empty rhetoric. The general isn't destined to be the Obama lovefest that the Dem primaries were where Barry got a pass on everything and was not called out on the carpet over his generalities and empty, meaningless, platitudes.
It's a new game. In the harsh, pale, light of day, Obama's candidacy, like Bill Clinton's penis in the presence of Hillary, is going to wilt to the point of complete impotency.
13 - Zedd
Arch,
Oh geez, I wasn't talking to people like you. Sorry. I miss-communicated. I don't think you are capable of understanding what I was saying. I was actually talking to the reasonable (or reasoning) among us.
14 - Robert L
There is something very concerning about this election. It is great that the country in some regards has moved forward, allowing for a white women and a black man the opportunity to run for the highest office in the country. The concerning issue is that gender and race are the center of every ones mind. In a perfect world Obama would not be a viable candidate because he is racist. Oh, God how dear a white man call a black man a racist. Black liberation theology and KKK only have one difference and that is the color of the race running the organization, but ideologically they teach the superiority of one race over others. Obama is guilty of racism as a member of this religious following, even though twenty years later he denounces this pastor, very opportunistically, he still participated in that racist theology. White people are still racist because know one is calling him out on this fact. White guilt continues to plague the white community giving this man the opportunity to become president. But hopefully it is becoming apparent that whites may need to stick together. If whites voted in a block of 90% would that be ok. Hell no, it should not be.This is scary. Now it is apparent that whites are not the only racists out there, blacks have proven to be as racist as white. Thanks for your example.
15 - Doug Hunter
Zedd,
True, it's hard to say how people will react in the booth. I don't attribute the entry of race into the contest to Obama, it's more a reflection of the voting populace. Anyway, I won't be voting for him because I disagree with his politics.
People's view on wealth redistribution depends greatly on whether they believe they'll be the distributee or the distributor. I know where I'll be...looking harder for loopholes.
16 - Arch Conservative
"Perhaps I am off base on this one. I don't think that people would hit a button in a private booth because of White guilt. I think that Obama is good. His message and manner resonnates. He is different and there is no time in history than now that we've needed different more."
C'mon Zedd. His message resonates? Yeah it resonates with people who agree with him just like any other politician's message resonates with those who agree with them. his message wasn't handed down from god himself on stone tablets.
He is diferent? So says you. There are millions of Americans who have not bought into the whole Saint Barry hoopla and view him (rightly so based on his Senate record) as nothing but a run of the mill leftist liberal who offers nothing but empty platitudes on the campaign trail and ultimately leftist ideology if elected. When you Obama cultists talk about Obama representing all Americans and bringing us all together what you're really saying is the cult of Obama is the only thing that matters and everyone else can go to hell.
Why don't you just come out and say it insetad of trying to couch it in hollow, bullshit notions of unity? I'd respect you a lot more if you did. It's what I do. I have no qualms about saying I don't want to be "unified" with those who don't share my views and that anyone whose views differ significantly from my own can drop dead for all I care.
So can you and the other Barry Hussein cultists do us all a favor and cult the fucking bullshit? Obama is not a uniter. He is no savior. He's nothing special. He's just another guy that the left half of the country finds acceptable and the right half does not. The same goes for Mccain. He's the flip side of the coin and I don't even like him that much myself.
In the end there probably will be some people in this nation who vote against Obama for no other reason than his race. There will also be people that vote FOR him for no other reason than his race.
I will be voting against him because he is a leftist and his positions on the issues are generally the polar opposite of my own. As far as I'm concerned anything that keeps him out of the White House is fine with me.
17 - zingzing
archie: "the general isn't destined to be the obama lovefest that the dem primaries were where barry got a pass on everything..."
i dunno what primaries you have been watching... the dem primaries were bad enough for obama that even i, the liberal leftist (with the white guilt that apparently comes with it), have begun to doubt if i will vote for obama. i was surely in his corner when this thing started, but i'm not so much anymore.
his lack of experience (he reminds me of edwards, whose "experience" seems to all be in campaigning,) does bother me. his decision to run his campaign just like any other political campaign ("politics of hope" my ass) has been a major turnoff.
that said, the jeremiah wright thing has maybe gotten me back in his corner. he's had to say some things because of it (the race speech, the fact that he was reluctant to give up on his friend even though it was damaging his political career,) that i found to show honesty and loyalty, two things you don't often see in a real politician.
the dem primaries have been rough on obama. all the dirty laundry has been out. it's mccain who's got some hell to go through yet.
18 - Franco
Why are white Americans afraid to speak truth to black Americans?
Years of black Amreican scapegoating and charges of racism have intimidated whites to the point that they no longer speak out on issues concerning race and morality. The fear of publicly being labeled "racist" causes many whites to hold their tongues when they see things run amuck in the black community (yet black liberals are given virtual carte blanche to publicly spew all manner of invective at whites and/or black conservatives). This racial intimidation by black Americans prevents Americans from engaging in honest dialogue about race and serves the self-interests of self-appointed black "leaders" as the expense of the greater black American communities.
Whenever there's a racial issue in this country Jackson or Sharpton are on the airwaves to "blame whitey."
Whites should no longer fall prey to such black American psychological bullying”.
White Americans need to stand up for truth with strength and patience. If we can find white people with courage, we can change this country
What is courage? Well, I can tell you what courage is not: 1) Courage is not resenting blacks and complaining to your white friends behind closed doors. 2) It's not tolerating black misconduct, and 3) Courage is not adopting the divisive, politically correct term "African American."
As for black Americans, they need to repudiate their "leaders" and let go of past grievances, lest they self-destruct.
It will take decent whites and blacks to come together to live out the promise of Dr. King's dream. Then, America will finally become the land of the free and the home of the brave!
19 - Cindy D
"Obama is on the extreme left..."
If Obama is on the extreme left we would never know it. Nothing he does or says associates him with the extreme left. I would know about that, since I am on the extreme left.
20 - Arch Conservative
From your lips to god's ears franco.
Thanks for the shot of commopn sense.
Obama recently got 91% of the black vote in NC and no one began screaming racism. You can bet that if any white candidate had gotten 91% of the white vote running against Obama in any state there would be screams of racism from every left wing loon and his mother. We ALL know this is true and we ALL know it's a double standard. According to the left's playbook, as a white person in America, you are not allowed to have an opinion on race relations or matters pertaining to race unless it is the formulated regurgitated standrad leftist view and anyone who dares deviate from this view is of course a hate mongering racist with a white robe hanging in their closet.
"the dem primaries have been rough on obama. all the dirty laundry has been out. it's mccain who's got some hell to go through yet."
Don't be so sure zing. If you think this Wright thing is going away or that if it's brought up again but with no effect you'd better think again.
If you think that people are not going to care in November that Barry's wife said she never had a reason to be proud of this nation until her hubby became a contender for the white house then you're mistaken.
If you think people aren't going to do their research and realize that Obama has a history of ducking votes or voting present more often than actually taking a stance on the issue or that when he actually does take a stance it's the uber left stance then you need to wake up.
The fact is that until the past few weeks Barry HAS been given a free pass. Once he wins the nomination the gloves are going to come off and he doesn't seem like he's the tye of guy that can take a real punch and keep on going.
21 - Bennett
Arch - White candidates garnered 100% of the white vote since George Washington was elected.
Proves nothing.
22 - Franco
Cindy D,
Is Rev Wright on the extreem left in "your book" of extreemists?
23 - zingzing
"The fact is that until the past few weeks Barry HAS been given a free pass. Once he wins the nomination the gloves are going to come off and he doesn't seem like he's the tye of guy that can take a real punch and keep on going."
i'm sure there will be the usual backstabbing and mudslinging. and maybe obama will crumble under the pressure.
at the same time, mccain is going to have to get his temper under control. and the guy has had a much longer political career, making enemies on both the left and the right. and he's got all the charm of a rotten log. and he's got bush hanging on his neck. he's also gotten lazy with all his down-time following his early victory.
inconsequential remarks from mrs. obama and the crazed ramblings of a preacher don't mean much to me. as i said, however, the lack of experience is bothersome.
24 - Cindy D
Franco,
Our country is indeed still structured to the disadvantage of certain people--blacks being among these. Those who had the power, and therefore those who structured this country, did so with great bias toward protecting members of the elite group to which they belonged. They happened to be land-owners, wealthy, white and male.
It is no secret that we have been struggling in our country to overturn the effects of this--emancipation of slaves, suffrage, etc., etc. These things are to our credit.
To believe that we have corrected all the effects of the initial structuring is wrong. There has been, and is, a built in bias against certain members of our society (blacks included). There still is and will be, until the imbalance in opportunity and wealth is changed.
That will take some doing, since the system is bias toward. It has nothing to do with guilt and everything to do with solidarity. Could you conceive of such a notion? Whites who actually identify with blacks? Try to stretch your mind around that idea instead of immediately attacking it.
25 - Lee Richards
When you look at the "experience" that's been in power, the lack of it among candidates doesn't bother me at all.
We will be better off without that kind of experience at the helm. At this point, we could use originality and innovation rather than more business-as-usual.
None of the candidates has any experience at being POTUS. I value intelligence, character, integrity, honesty, and philosophy of government more than some nebulous and questionable experience on a candidate's resume.