North Korea Good For Republicans in 2006?

In a contrarian article in the San Diego Union-Tribune on July 9th, Craig Crawford argued that continuing controversies in North Korea and Iran and the Supreme Court’s rebuke of presidential power might seem like bad news all around for President Bush and his Republican allies in Congress. "They are just the kind of wild-card news developments that would appear to buffet an already beleaguered majority party in the middle of a wind-whipped election year,”  Crawford writes.  But he has a different take on how the Republicans can turn the bad news into an election-year victory that doesn't require the kind of get tough policy many are calling for.

The administration, mindful of the calls for a preemptive strike on both N. Korea and Iran, is trying to redefine its preemption strategy, encouraging China to get tough on N. Korea, and softening its stance on negotiations with both Iran and Korea. White House spokesman Tony Snow was asked if Bush had given up on cowboy diplomacy and unilateral action in favor of diplomatic outreach, especially in dealings with Iran and North Korea.

"’Preemption also can be a diplomatic strategy. What you try to do, for instance, in the case of North Korea, is to preempt activity,’ said Snow. ‘Pre-emption is not merely a military doctrine’."

Diplomacy rather than bombs can also be an electoral doctrine.  Crawford suggests that one “...look more closely and you also can see how these events could actually form the driving force behind the party’s bid to keep control of Congress.” Now that White House strategist Karl Rove is no longer distracted by a grand jury, he’s focused exclusively on 2006.

The potential battle plan for the Congressional elections: “Fear trumps change.”  If the Republicans can create enough fear of an unstable world, they'll be less likely to vote for change in November, particularly if the GOP can paint the Democrats as not capable of protecting American security.

Rove has used this strategy before with solid results. At the beginning of this year, he had already laid it out. “’Republicans have a post-9/11 worldview, and many Democrats have a pre-9/11 worldview,’ he said in a speech to the Republican National Committee. ‘That doesn’t make them unpatriotic — not at all. But it does make them wrong — deeply and profoundly and consistently wrong’.”

Article Author: Mark Schannon

Crisis/risk/issues management and communications and PR consultant, free-lance writer, aspiring pundit and author. Blogcritics.org asst. ed, politics. Wanted to set world on fire, but bride won't let me play with matches, so I'm counting on upcoming, …

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