What is the change, and how is it being brought about?
The wind is starting to blow in Ma'aleh Levona and the wind of change is coming over the land. The issue is what is the change, and how is it being brought about?…
"A sinister cabal of superior writers."
Article comments
— go to most recent comments26 - Les Slater
Victor #25
You believe this shit? Are you insulted?
We will understand, and acccept, more generally what many Christians are now admitting, that the world is not 8,000 years old just because the Bible says it is.
The reactionary interpretations of the holy books are fanned by political forces with particular agendas. These are the ones that insult the believer.
Les
27 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Victor #25 --- You believe this shit? Are you insulted?
Les, you write like a true disciple of those great comedians of history, Lenin and Marx (not you Gonzo - you make sense).
I look at the work of Karl Marx and Friederich Engels - particularly their prescriptions for the problems of 19th Century Europe and say to myself, "Reuven, you used to believe this shit?"
I'm afraid to tell you this, but Gazelle and I both thake this "shit" very seriously, and with each passing year, the historicity of the claims of the Bible becomes more and more confirmed.
And we, far more than you, are parties to the conflict. Gazelle may not agree with me in the details, but in the outlines - that there is one G-d who created the universe and all that is in it, and Who will judge the behavior of His sentient creatures - we do.
28 - Glen Boyd
Ruvy,
My prayers are with you and your people my brother.
-Glen
29 - Bliffle
"Victor, if you do not believe in either the Bible or the Qur'an, what you say is true. But for those of us who are believers, there is a divine destiny assigned this land."
Madness.
30 - troll
this bloodlust infecting the Jews and Muslims is enough to drive a person to...the gospel of Thomas
troll
31 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Troll, family fights are the worst kinds...
This just in from my friend Sergio Tezza.
Palestinian Media Watch Bulletin - Aug. 10, 2006
Israeli Arabs in support of Hezbollah
In Nazareth Israeli Arabs Demonstrate in support of Hezbollah
“Occupation and invasion = terror”
“Resistance = right and obligation” [photo from Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, July 16, 2006
by Itamar Marcus and Barbara Crook
As Israel counts more than 100 dead in its war against the Hezbollah terror organization, numerous Israeli Arabs, including Arab Knesset members, have come out in support of the enemy. A number of demonstrations and marches in support of Hezbollah have likewise been held by Israel's Arabs.
One Member of the Knesset, Azmi Bishara, even refers to the members of Hezbollah as “heroes.” He calls for Hezbollah to fight Israeli soldiers, saying, “One must settle accounts with their murderers and resist [fight] its aggression.”
The following are 15 statements by Israeli Arab leaders and victims of Hezbollah terror in support of Hezbollah, all said during the war:
Ra’oda Att’allah, Director of the Arab Culture Society in Haifa:
"The popularity of Hezbollah has grown substantially among the Arabs in Israel… the first time there is a feeling of returning the honor, and that the people are feeling for the first time that there is a group which resists [fights-ed.] and stands firm against the Israeli army."[Al-Ayyam, August 8, 2006]
Ali Mana, relative of 2 Israeli Arabs killed by Hezbollah missile:
“Hezbollah raised our heads and lifted our spirit.” [Al-Ayyam, August 8, 2006]
Wasil Taha, Arab Knesset Member:
“Resistance [Hezbollah attacks] is not terror but it is a moral value. As for terror, the state [Israel] carries it out." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, August 6, 2006]
Arab Knesset Member, Chairman of Balad Party, Azmi Bishara:
"Solidarity with these heroes [Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorists] is the least [we can do]." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, July 16, 2006]
Muhammad Hasan Kan’an, Chairman Arab National Party:
“America, Britain and Israel will not succeed to defeat the peoples in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan... This is a war against Islam and against the Arabs”. [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, August 6, 2006]
Arab Knesset Member, Chairman of Balad Party, Azmi Bishara:
"The Palestinian and Lebanese resistance returned the confidence to the Arab-Islamic identity after years of defeats." [Al-Ayyam, August 8, 2006]
Raa’d Salah, Head of the Islamic Movement in Israel:
“'A look at the region in which we live teaches that the two biggest liars are Ehud Olmert and George Bush, who lead the world to carnage, destruction, and massacres.' He called the peoples of the world to expose the lies of those who burn children." [Al-Ayyam, August 8, 2006]
Raa'd Salah, Head of the Islamic Movement in Israel:
"The Palestinian people and the people of Lebanon are the winners because they have justice, whereas Bush and Olmert are the losers because they have falsehood". [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, August 8, 2006]
Raja Aghbariyah, Secretary of Israeli Arab Movement, “Abna Al-Balad”:
“This war forced all the factors to choose between the imperialistic Zionist and reactionary Arab camp [on one hand] or the ‘peoples’ and their resistance [movements]. We chose the ‘peoples’ and their resistance [movements] in Beirut, Palestine, Iraq and Somalia.” He sent a greeting to Hassan Nasrallah “because he upraised our heads” and added, “We are not just against the war, but we are also in favor of the resisting people [i.e. terror]. Therefore, we do not want their fake democracy in Iraq." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, August 8, 2006]
Family of young Arab girl, Du’a Abbas, killed by Hezbollah rocket:
"Blamed the government of Israel for the killing of their daughter."
[Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, July 27, 2006]
Dr. Mansur Abbas, Chairman, Conference of the Southern Wing of the Islamic Movement in Israel, and cousin of the young girl mentioned above:
"The Israeli politicians chose war and they are responsible for what is happening." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, July 27, 2006]
Arab Knesset Member, Chairman of Balad Party, Azmi Bishara:
"Israel's goal has been to expel civilians after organized massacres, of which the most well known are Dir Yassin and dozens more like it. To expel them in order to settle in their place in 1948... [Now] Israel targeted the civilians in Lebanon as a direct continuation of the historic chain, in a bloody red moment in Qana: First, to punish those who supported the resistance, second to expel the civilians in the South to the North in order to cause additional communal tension in Lebanon and third, to nourish the barbaric desire for revenge. This was a planned and intended attack. Israel is a terrorist state." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, August 4, 2006]
Nimer Nimer, Israeli Arab author:
“What happened in Nazi Germany 60 years ago occurs today in Baghdad, Gaza and Beirut.” [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, August 6, 2006]
Arab Knesset Member, Chairman of Balad Party, Azmi Bishara:
"They [Lebanese children] are victims of a culture of criminal, savage and barbaric [Israeli] aircraft. One must settle accounts with their murderers and resist [fight] its aggression." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, August 4, 2006]
Popular support for Hezbollah:
"In the city of Nazareth a public conference was held the day before yesterday in support of Lebanon and of Palestine." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, August 6, 2006]
"Thousands of Palestinians from “the interior” participated yesterday in a demonstration that was organized by Balad [Israeli Arab political] party to protest the Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people in Gaza strip and to protest the barbaric offensive against the Lebanese people." [Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, July 16, 2006]
32 - gazelle
He gives
and he takes.
just like he gives
he takes.
this there all the way through for all time for everybody without exception.
best
33 - troll
agreed - if it works at all then it must work for all
troll
34 - gazelle
24
this "fictitious entity" is pretty amazing.
best
35 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
This article from Haaretz by Avi Shavit has hit my inbox several times. I post it here because there was a time that Haaretz would have never printed a column with these kinds of opinions. Even the "loony lefties" at Haaretz are waking up and smelling the shrapnel This article was on the front page of the weekend Hebrew edition of Haaretz.
This version of the article came courtesy of Aryeh Zelasko who got it from IMRA which picked it up from Haaretz
-------------------------------------------------
Olmert must go
By Ari Shavit Haaretz 11 August 2006 [front page of Hebrew edition]
Ehud Olmert may decide to accept the French proposal for a cease-fire and unconditional surrender to Hezbollah. That is his privilege. Olmert is a prime minister whom journalists invented, journalists protected, and whose
rule journalists preserved. Now the journalists are saying run away. That's legitimate. Unwise, but legitimate.
However, one thing should be clear: If Olmert runs away now from the war he initiated, he will not be able to remain prime minister for even one more day. Chutzpah has its limits. You cannot lead an entire nation to war promising victory, produce humiliating defeat and remain in power. You cannot bury 120 Israelis in cemeteries, keep a million Israelis in shelters
for a month, wear down deterrent power, bring the next war very close, and then say - oops, I made a mistake. That was not the intention. Pass me a cigar, please.
There is no mistake Ehud Olmert did not make this past month. He went to war hastily, without properly gauging the outcome. He blindly followed the military without asking the necessary questions. He mistakenly gambled on
air operations, was strangely late with the ground operation, and failed to implement the army's original plan, much more daring and sophisticated than that which was implemented. And after arrogantly and hastily bursting into
war, Olmert managed it hesitantly, unfocused and limp. He neglected the home front and abandoned the residents of the north. He also failed shamefully on the diplomatic front.
Still, if Olmert had come to his senses as Golda Meir did during the Yom Kippur War, if he had become a leader, established a war cabinet and called the nation to a supreme effort that would change the face of the battle, a penetrating discussion of his failures could be postponed. But in blinking first over the past 24 hours, he has become an incorrigible political personality. Therefore, the day Nasrallah comes out of his bunker and declares victory to the whole world, Olmert must not be in the prime
minister's office. Post-war battered and bleeding Israel needs a new start and a new leader. It needs a real prime minister.
-------------------------------------------------
The kind lady who published this for Eric Olsen took out my references to Olmert being a thief and an incompetent lawyer. But Olmert was never more than an idiot with his hand out for money. Unfortunately, over 120 good Israelis have had to die to prove that point. And now, Haaretz, on its front page Hebrew weekend edition has said that he must go.
Pass me a cigar folks. A good Cuban cigar. I need me victory smoke. The fat lady is singing...
Shabbat Shalom from Ma'aleh Levona, just an hour's bus ride from Jerusalem, the Eternal Capital of the Jewish people
36 - Dean
If God didn't want people to blow up others and kill them, he wouldn't have given them bombs.
On the other hand, he gave them free will and the intelligence to find ways to avoid doing it.
Well, maybe not the intelligence.
37 - Victor Plenty
Les, it doesn't matter what I believe. If I want to have a conversation with the people involved in this dispute, I am rational enough to know I won't learn anything by dismissing and belittling their most deeply cherished beliefs.
I wonder, why aren't you rational enough to know that?
I also wonder why Gazelle neglected to answer my question, but perhaps that's partly because of all the rude interruptions here.
38 - Dean
Correction.
Definitely not the intelligence.
39 - Les Slater
Victgor #37
Imperialism is playing both sides against each other. This is an old trick. For centuries the imperialists used the divide and rule technique. Religion was and is how they played local forces against each other.
Religion is not the cause of problems in the mid-East. And of course, the imperialists laugh all the way to their coffers.
They laugh at those that try to understand anything through quoting ancient books about a dispute, wich by fact of its existance, profits them. There is no harm done to them.
Les
40 - Clavos
Les,
Just out of curiosity, what political philosophy do you believe in/follow?
41 - Les Slater
Clavos #40
Communist
42 - Clavos
Les,
Thanks for the reply.
43 - gonzo marx
Les in #41 ..yer kidding, yes?
i mean, i have never actually *met* a real, card carrying communist...
your Choice, of course.. i don't mean anything disparaging... but i just gotta know if yer Joking...
Excelsior?
44 - Les Slater
gonzo #43
Not kidding, but do not carry card, well, except for the usual driver's license, credit cards, etc.
Never have been member of Communist Party, nor would I be. I think they are no more than a bunch of treacherous liberals.
Les
45 - gonzo marx
interesting take... and here all the comunists i have known about in history (Stalinist-Maoist) have been hypocritical authoritarian fascists...
so, i'm guessing you mean in a more philosophical sense...
ah well, to each their Own... thanks fer the Answer
Excelsior?
46 - Les Slater
gonzo,
"so, i'm guessing you mean in a more philosophical sense..."
No, in a Leninist sense.
Les
47 - Dean
Les:
Do you live in a kibbutz?
48 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Got this a little bit ago from my friend Sergio Tezza...
The text of Olmert's surrender.
Nota Bene:
1) ONLY Lebanon gets international recognition of the damage of the war and help to repair it;
2) NO immediate implementation of UNSC Resolution 1559 is demanded;
3) UNIFIL - the main collaborator of Hizbollah after Syria and Iran - is not dismantled but extended;
4) There is a comparison of so-called "Lebanese prisoners" (who are just tried and condemned child murderers) and our two kidnapped soldiers;
5) There is no DEMAND to IMMEDIATELY RELEASE our kidnapped soldiers;
6) There is NO DEMAND TO IMMEDIATELY DISARM HIZBOLLAH;
7) Israel will not be allowed to defend herself if Hizbollah launches missiles on Israel, since flying in Lebanese territory will mean going against the resolution.
8) NO MENTION of the Iranian and Syrian weapons used against Israel by the terrorists or of those countries' responsibilities
====================================
Text of U.N. Draft Resolution
Friday , August 11, 2006
UNITED NATIONS " The Security Council,
PP1. Recalling all its previous resolutions on Lebanon, in particular resolutions 425 (1978), 426 (1978), 520 (1982), 1559 (2004), 1655 (2006) 1680 (2006) and 1697 (2006), as well as the statements of its President on the situation in Lebanon, in particular the statements of 18 June 2000 (S/PRST/2000/21), of 19 October 2004 (S/PRST/2004/36), of 4 May 2005 (S/PRST/2005/17) of 23 January 2006 (S/PRST/2006/3) and of 30 July 2006 (S/PRST/2006/35),
PP2. Expressing its utmost concern at the continuing escalation of hostilities in Lebanon and in Israel since Hezbollah's attack on Israel on 12 July 2006, which has already caused hundreds of deaths and injuries on both sides, extensive damage to civilian infrastructure and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons,
PP3. Emphasizing the need for an end of violence, but at the same time emphasizing the need to address urgently the causes that have given rise to the current crisis, including by the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers,
PP4: Mindful of the sensitivity of the issue of prisoners and encouraging the efforts aimed at urgently settling the issue of the Lebanese prisoners detained in Israel,
PP5. Welcoming the efforts of the Lebanese Prime Minister and the commitment of the government of Lebanon, in its seven-point plan, to extend its authority over its territory, through its own legitimate armed forces, such that there will be no weapons without the consent of the government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the government of Lebanon, welcoming also its commitment to a UN force that is supplemented and enhanced in numbers, equipment, mandate and scope of operation, and bearing in mind its request in this plan for an immediate withdrawal of the Israeli forces from Southern Lebanon,
PP6. Determined to act for this withdrawal to happen at the earliest,
PP7. Taking due note of the proposals made in the seven-point plan regarding the Shebaa farms area,
PP8. Welcoming the unanimous decision by the government of Lebanon on 7 August 2006 to deploy a Lebanese armed force of 15,000 troops in South Lebanon as the Israeli army withdraws behind the Blue Line and to request the assistance of additional forces from UNIFIL as needed, to facilitate the entry of the Lebanese armed forces into the region and to restate its intention to strengthen the Lebanese armed forces with material as needed to enable it to perform its duties,
PP9. Aware of its responsibilities to help secure a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution to the conflict,
PP10. Determining that the situation in Lebanon constitutes a threat to international peace and security,
OP1. Calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations;
OP2. Upon full cessation of hostilities, calls upon the government of Lebanon and UNIFIL as authorized by paragraph 11 to deploy their forces together throughout the South and calls upon the government of Israel, as that deployment begins, to withdraw all of its forces from Southern Lebanon in parallel;
OP3. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the government of Lebanon;
OP4. Reiterates its strong support for full respect for the Blue Line;
OP5. Also reiterates its strong support, as recalled in all its previous relevant resolutions, for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Lebanon within its internationally recognized borders, as contemplated by the Israeli-Lebanese General Armistice Agreement of 23 March 1949;
OP6. Calls on the international community to take immediate steps to extend its financial and humanitarian assistance to the Lebanese people, including through facilitating the safe return of displaced persons and, under the authority of the Government of Lebanon, reopening airports and harbours, consistent with paragraphs 14 and 15, and calls on it also to consider further assistance in the future to contribute to the reconstruction and development of Lebanon;
OP7. Affirms that all parties are responsible for ensuring that no action is taken contrary to paragraph 1 that might adversely affect the search for a long-term solution, humanitarian access to civilian populations, including safe passage for humanitarian convoys, or the voluntary and safe return of displaced persons, and calls on all parties to comply with this responsibility and to cooperate with the Security Council;
OP8. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:
" full respect for the Blue Line by both parties,
" security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the government of Lebanon and of UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11, deployed in this area,
" full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state,
" no foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its government,
" no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its government,
" provision to the United Nations of all remaining maps of land mines in Lebanon in Israel's possession;
OP9. Invites the Secretary General to support efforts to secure as soon as possible agreements in principle from the Government of Lebanon and the Government of Israel to the principles and elements for a long-term solution as set forth in paragraph 8, and expresses its intention to be actively involved;
OP10. Requests the Secretary General to develop, in liaison with relevant international actors and the concerned parties, proposals to implement the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), including disarmament, and for delineation of the international borders of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain, including by dealing with the Shebaa farms area, and to present to the Security Council those proposals within thirty days;
OP11. Decides, in order to supplement and enhance the force in numbers, equipment, mandate and scope of operations, to authorize an increase in the force strength of UNIFIL to a maximum of 15,000 troops, and that the force shall, in addition to carrying out its mandate under resolutions 425 and 426 (1978):
a. Monitor the cessation of hostilities;
b. Accompany and support the Lebanese armed forces as they deploy throughout the South, including along the Blue Line, as Israel withdraws its armed forces from Lebanon as provided in paragraph 2;
c. Coordinate its activities related to paragraph 11 (b) with the Government of Lebanon and the Government of Israel;
d. Extend its assistance to help ensure humanitarian access to civilian populations and the voluntary and safe return of displaced persons;
e. Assist the Lebanese armed forces in taking steps towards the establishment of the area as referred to in paragraph 8;
f. Assist the government of Lebanon, at its request, to implement paragraph 14;
OP12. Acting in support of a request from the government of Lebanon to deploy an international force to assist it to exercise its authority throughout the territory, authorizes UNIFIL to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces and as it deems within its capabilities, to ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind, to resist attempts by forceful means to prevent it from discharging its duties under the mandate of the Security Council, and to protect United Nations personnel, facilities, installations and equipment, ensure the security and freedom of movement of United Nations personnel, humanitarian workers, and, without prejudice to the responsibility of the government of Lebanon, to protect civilians under imminent threat of physical violence;
OP13. Requests the Secretary General urgently to put in place measures to ensure UNIFIL is able to carry out the functions envisaged in this resolution, urges Member States to consider making appropriate contributions to UNIFIL and to respond positively to requests for assistance from the Force, and expresses its strong appreciation to those who have contributed to UNIFIL in the past;
OP14. Calls upon the Government of Lebanon to secure its borders and other entry points to prevent the entry in Lebanon without its consent of arms or related materiel and requests UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11 to assist the Government of Lebanon at its request;
OP15. Decides further that all states shall take the necessary measures to prevent, by their nationals or from their territories or using their flag vessels or aircraft,
(a) the sale or supply to any entity or individual in Lebanon of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, whether or not originating in their territories, and
(b) the provision to any entity or individual in Lebanon of any technical training or assistance related to the provision, manufacture, maintenance or use of the items listed in subparagraph (a) above,
except that these prohibitions shall not apply to arms, related material, training or assistance authorized by the Government of Lebanon or by UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11;
OP16. Decides to extend the mandate of UNIFIL until 31 August 2007, and expresses its intention to consider in a later resolution further enhancements to the mandate and other steps to contribute to the implementation of a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution;
OP17. Requests the Secretary-General to report to the Council within one week on the implementation of this resolution and subsequently on a regular basis;
OP18. Stresses the importance of, and the need to achieve, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in the Middle East, based on all its relevant resolutions including its resolutions 242 (1967) of 22 November 1967 and 338 (1973) of 22 October 1973;
OP19. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter.
49 - Dean
Conclusion:
Information overload.
50 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
If that is your attitude towards a live resolution of the UN you love so much, Dean, you shouldn't be commenting at all...
Someone else, with more brains than you, took the trouble to read through this work of art and make notes. I read through it as well, and agree with him. If it's too hot in the kitchen and you can't handle it, get the hell out.
51 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
This is the "celestial omnibus" news report from Rabbi Rachamim Pauli. It just came in a minute ago on my e-mail.
=================================================
I really don't know what is going on here!
A few minutes before candle lighting time in Yerushalayim, Olmert gave the green light to go into Lebanon. The Chief of Staff suddenly says the Udi Adam is a good General. There were terror attempts from Gaza, Yehuda and the Shomron but not making much waves because of other headlines.
It is rumored that the Mossad had its hand in the intelligence work between, Pakistan, M5 and others. There are still planes heard in the skies here.
A cease-fire leaving Hizballah with their weapons, prisoners, etc. is to go into effect supposedly Monday morning our time. Hizballah 'agrees' nice of them. However, if Israeli troops are in Lebanon, fighting will continue. All we will get is French, Russian and Lebanese troops on our border in return for nothing. Guess who wins?
In the meantime rockets fall. Overhead on my Yeshuv from a woman staying here talking on her cellphone to her neighbor up north. "What the house of Yose Alon was destroy and the house of so and so hit! You must be crazy for staying there."
Seven Soldiers died on Shabbos in Lebanon and a helicopter with 4 on board was supposedly hit Motzei Shabbos in Lebanon. More and more troops are now pouring into Lebanon. Our advance was getting closer to Tzur (Tyre) in the west and deeper in the East. We will probably reach the Litani by Tuesday Morning and begin cleaning up the area.
-------------------------------------------------
Israeli forces are pressing forward with the wide-scale operation against Hizballah which DEBKAfile reports was launched four days ago on Wednesday, Aug. 8.
The campaign will continue until the ceasefire called for in Security Resolution 1701 approved Friday, Aug. 11, is enforced on the ground " if and when that happens.
It is carried forward by four expanded divisions of 11 brigades, about 12,000 fighting men. Head of the Ground Forces Branch Maj.-Gen Benny Gantz is leading the IDF’s South Lebanon command.
The first stage of the new operation has succeeded in its objective of encircling Hizballah’s 1,500-strong force in a large swathe stretching from the Litani River in the north, to Tyre in the southwest.
This tactic follows Israel’s 1982 Lebanon War stratagem of pushing Palestinian forces out of South Lebanon up to Beirut and then holding them to siege.
Now, Israeli troops are pushing Hizballah into the Tyre enclave that also encompasses the Palestinian refugee camps of Rashidiya and Bourj al-Shamali, in order to contain it there. In central and northern Lebanon, Hizballah strength will be left intact with two of its three rocket brigades - medium and long range - for the time being. They will be left to the Air Force to destroy.
In the last few hours, Hizballah’s command and control in the south is showing signs of distress after finding itself cut off from reinforcements and re-supply from the north by the rapid Israeli advances of the last four days.
DEBKAfile’s military sources update Israel military movements:
The Northern Division: From Wednesday, this division has been advancing north from Israel’s northernmost town of Metulla towards the plain of Nabatea, north of the Litani River, taking the town of Marjayun en route. Early Friday Aug. 11, when Israeli PM Ehud Olmert and defense minister Amir Peretz gave the go ahead for the expanded offensive, the division split in two. One headed north and entered the village of Blat east of the crook in the Litani River " a vantage point for artillery control of the Nabatean plain to the west, and Hasbaya to the east.
The second segment of the Northern Division has been positioned since Thursday on the southern bank of the Litani after capturing Qantara.
For the moment, this division is positioned on a number of hilltops along the river bank with fire control over parts of the Nabatea plain.
Saturday or Sunday morning, these troops should reach the Hardaleh bridge, one of the two linking central Lebanon to the south.
In this part of the front, Israeli troops are fighting Hizballa’s Sector No. 5.
Our military sources report that the Northern Division has encountered little Hizballah resistance in its push north. They are estimated to have gone to ground to await their moment to counter-attack. Local inhabitants in this area are friendly, some even point Israeli troops to possible Hizballah hideouts and arms caches.
Division 162: Since Wednesday, this division under the command of Brig.-Gen Guy Tsur, has been driving north along the eastern bank of Wadi Saluki in the Eastern Sector of South Lebanon up to the Central Sector. Saturday, this division fetched up at Froun village on a hilltop opposite the Litani and west of Taibe and Deir Mimas. This high point affords the division fire control of the Qeaqea bridge, the second most important one spanning the Litani.
The bridge was destroyed by an Israeli air strike at the outset of the war.
This division is fighting Hizballah’s Sectors 3 and 4.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the division commanded by Tsur is now following a westerly route along the Litani’s southern bank up to the Mediterranean coast and a place called Burj el Haoua, which is midway between Sidon and Tyre south of Beirut.
Once in position there, the IDF will be able:
1. To tighten the siege of Tyre from the north.
2. Be ready to cross the Litani and head north of the river if ordered to do so.
Division 91: Under the command of Brig. Gen Gal Hirsch, this division has also been in motion since Wednesday heading west to the Mediterranean coast from a point north of Bin Jubeil. The members of this division fought heavy battles at Ras Baida north of the Israeli town of Rosh Hanikra, and at the villages of Shmaa, Majdel Zun and Mansura south of Tyre. By Saturday morning, this division had managed to stabilize a line south of Tyre from a point north of Bin Jubeil up to Ras Baida, thereby completing the siege of Tyre from the south.
A fourth division operating mostly undercover with special operations units took control Friday and Saturday of sections of the dividing seam between Divisions 162 and 91. This gap covers the war arenas of Qana village, Jouiya and Maarake. This division has been entrusted with tightening the eastern section of the siege enclosing Tyre and preventing Hizballah harassing the flanks and rear of the two divisions.
Late last week, Hassan Nasrallah managed to rush several hundreds of fighters of his Bader Force to reinforce this arena.
DEBKAfile’s exclusive sources report that this broad IDF campaign is planned to proceed over the weekend and early next week, on the assumption that Washington and the United Nations will step in at some early point and threaten to declare Israel in violation of the ceasefire resolution until it is stopped.
-------------------------------------------------
Seven Israeli soldiers killed, more than 100 injured " 11 seriously " in combat against Hizballah Saturday, Day 2 of wide-scale offensive up to Litani
Number of Katyusha rockets fired into northern Israel Saturday drops by more than half.
An Israeli soldier was killed in Labuna Friday morning by anti-tank fire.
Another 7 were injured slightly in clashes in other parts of South Lebanon " 2 in the central region, 5 from a bomb explosion in Qantara.
-------------------------------------------------
Hizballah shoots down an Israeli Sikorsky helicopter over S. Lebanon’s Central Sector. First report of casualties
Renewed Hizballah rocket fire injures 7 people in N. Israeli town of Safed Kiryat Shemona, Carmiel and other parts of Galilee are under fire Saturday
Friday, more than 120 Hizballah rockets ravaged N. Israel Friday " 70% striking Kiryat Shemona. Several people were injured and the damage to buildings, roads and vehicles was substantial. Earlier, Haifa suffered three volleys including a heavy, long-range Khaibar-1 DEBKAfile’s military sources: The long-range missile landing near Haifa port Friday was a new, unknown type of Khaibar. This means that Hizballah is either taking fresh supplies, and getting them transported to South Lebanon, or still has large, undiscovered caches there. A total of 3,650 Hizballah rockets fired into civilian locations of northern Israel in month of Lebanon conflict.
52 - Les Slater
The increased political power of Hezbollah will bring with it pressure to Hezbollahize the Lebanese armed forces. Hezbollah cadre may find themselves in key command and training positions within the Lebanese armed forces.
53 - Dave Nalle
Thereby advancing further into positions of power, eventually bringing about a communist revolution from within the governmental hierarchy of the decadent Lebanese state, right Les?
One thing which you've got to consider when looking at all of these islamic terrorist groups is that they take their inspiration from the nazis and their politics from the communists - sort of the worst of both worlds. This is why so many on the American left are sympathetic to them, because they know that groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and even the Ba'athists, only pay lip-service to Islam and are basically communist revolutionary movements. They are the last great hope of a failed political philosophy. It's also one of the reasons why Al Qaeda and these groups have never gotten along well together, because Al Qaeda doesn't trust them or see them as true Muslims.
Dave
54 - Les Slater
Dave #53
"Thereby advancing further into positions of power, eventually bringing about a communist revolution from within the governmental hierarchy of the decadent Lebanese state,"
They are likely to get into greater positions of power within the Lebanese stae. There influence will go beyond Lebanon, but this will not accomplish any social revolution.
Hezbollah is a capitalist party that calls for an “Islamic Republic.”
For the liberation of the region, these parties, Hezbollah included, will have to renounce the goal of an Islamic state. That is the obstacle to a lasting unity. To bring the Jews on their side would require for the calling of a Democratic Secular Palestine.
Even that would not bring socialism, never mind communism, to the region.
It will neutralize much of the power of imperialism in the region; only then will the struggle for socialism be on the agenda.
Militant working class parties will be formed ahead of the struggle for socialism, but will not be able to proceed while parties of different nationalities and religions continue to fight each other.
Les
55 - Dean
Ruvy:
We know where to find UN Resolutions when we want to read them, and they are in a more intelligible format.
56 - Dean
Some of the rants here remind me of Jack D. Ripper.
Remember him?
57 - Dave Nalle
Militant working class parties will be formed ahead of the struggle for socialism, but will not be able to proceed while parties of different nationalities and religions continue to fight each other.
You just don't get the Middle East at all, Les. There is NO working class in the Middle East. The paradigms designed for 19th century Germany don't apply there. It's a tribal society with a bit of feudalism thrown in. Princes and peasants. No factories, no mills, no workshops.
Dave
58 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Les, Dave is right in his analysis of the Middle East, at least so far as the Arabs go.
Arab society is largely a tribal society, and this fact cuts across all the "class" lines that a Leninist like you would like to draw. This is not 19th century Germany.
So your proposals, nice as they are, are just not relevant to the situation on the ground. A whole generation of Arabs tried to import Marxism and socialism and found themselves failing miserably.
They are the political dinosaurs here. Bashir Assad tries to survive by being the son in what is really a monarchy. But like the son at the beginning of the Book of Ecclesiastes, he is wasting the father's hard efforts.
Sorry to burst your bubble, Les, but Marxist Leninism, heady opium for the masses that it is, is just not what the doctor ordered.
59 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Now for some news.
This is from the English language version of Haaretz. The full article can be viewed here.
-------------------------------------------------
Syria still transferring supply of rockets, missiles to Hezbollah
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent 13/08/2006
Syria continues its efforts to transfer large quantities of war materiel, including rockets, to Lebanon, in an effort to assist Hezbollah in its war against Israel, a senior Israel Defense Forces source told Haaretz on Saturday.
According to the IDF source, the air force has succeeded in partially stemming the arms transfers, but intelligence shows that supply convoys have managed to cross into Lebanon from Syria.
Senior Syrian army and intelligence officers are involved in the arms smuggling, according to the senior IDF source, who says it is unlikely this
continues without the explicit support of the regime in Damascus.
Two specific types of weapons - anti-tank missiles and rockets used to target Israeli civilians - are of concern.
The alert levels of the Syrian army, especially on the Golan Heights, is at its highest levels since the Lebanon War in 1982. The Syrian preparedness is mostly defensive, but the IDF is not excluding the possibility that Damascus
will initiate a limited ground operation during the closing stages of the war.
-------------------------------------------------
This next piece comes from IMRA.
It is a press release from the Israel Foreign Ministry supplemented with comments from Dr. Aaron Lerner.
[Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA: The folks at the Israel Foreign Ministry declined to share with their readers that the resolution:
#1 Does not require the release of the Israeli hostages.
#2 Includes no time element for the disarming of Hizbullah (this while the resolution is peppered with phrases such as "as soon as possible",
"urgently", "immediate steps").
#3 Provides for UNIFIL to protect human shields ("authorizes UNIFIL to ...without prejudice to the responsibility of the Government of Lebanon, to protect civilians under imminent threat of physical violence")
#2 + #3 = formula for armed conflict between the IDF and UNIFIL.
This and more.
Question: If you are preparing a press release and know that there are problems with the UNSC resolution why hide them when the odds are good that you will later find yourself trying to explain to the very same audience about the problems with the UNSC resolution when the situation sours?
Wouldn't it be more honest to say: "there are good points and bad points to the resolution as detailed below. The Government of Israel will meet on Sunday to decide if, after due consideration, the resolution should be
accepted."?]
====================
Behind the Headlines: UN Security Council Resolution 1701
Information Department, Israel Foreign Ministry - Jerusalem
Website: http://www.mfa.gov.il
Jerusalem, 12 August 2006
UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted on 11 August 2006, contains the essential elements that Israel believes can build a more stable and secure situation and will prevent Hizbullah from ever again being able to create the sort of regional crisis we have witnessed in the past month.
The preamble of the resolution:
- clearly puts the blame for the current crisis on Hizbullah
- calls for the unconditional release of the Israeli hostages, and
- calls for the implementation of UNSC 1559
In the operative paragraphs, the resolution:
- calls for the cessation of all Hizbullah armed attacks
- creates a new, strengthened UNIFIL (15,000 troops)
- gives UNIFIL a improved mandate (to take "all necessary action" to prevent hostile activities of any kind in its area of operations)
- calls that there be no armed groups, foreign or domestic (i.e. armed Hizbullah militia or Syrian and Iranian military advisors) in Lebanon
- establishes an embargo of weapons to Lebanese groups other than the government, enforced by UNIFIL (at airports, seaports and border crossings), and
- forbids Hizbullah armed elements from returning to southern Lebanon, from
the Blue Line to the Litani River.
Thus the resolution contains the fundamental elements which Government of Israel set out to achieve following Hizbullah's unprovoked cross border attack and bombardment on 12 July:
- the return of its hostages
- the removal of the Hizbullah threat to northern Israeli cities, and
- the implementation of UNSC Resolution 1559 calling for Lebanon extend its
sovereignty to all its territory, deploy its army south to the
Israel-Lebanon border and disarm Hizbullah.
Israel expects the international community to take all the concrete steps required in order to bring about the full and effective implementation of the resolution just adopted.
60 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
The following is from Rabbi Rachamim Pauli's "Celestial Omnibus"* series. Received by e-mail
*my title for it, based on the catholic nature of the news posted
-------------------------------------------------
Israeli losses in South Lebanon Saturday rise to 24. They include 5 crew members of a Yasur (Sikorsky) helicopter shot down by a Hizballah anti-air missile in the Central Sector
The chopper's crew are designated missing in action. More than 100 soldiers were injured " 12 seriously.
Hizballah counted 45 dead.
Prime minister Ehud Olmert will ask cabinet Sunday to endorse his acceptance of the UN Security Council resolution ordering a cessation of hostilities. The Lebanese government approved the resolution - with reservations - Saturday night.
DEBKAfile adds Criticism is mounting in the Israeli public and army of the way prime minister Ehud Olmert, defense minister Amir Peretz and the cabinet conducted the Lebanon war now going into its second month, because of which Israel must forego its primary war goals.
Senior IDF officers blame the high proportion of fallen men at the front 1:2 against the Hizballah in the first two days of the broadened ground offensive to the tight time frame Olmert accepted for meeting an arbitrary ceasefire deadline set by the UN secretary for 0800 hours Monday, Aug. 14.
The army was given 60 hours to attain all the tactical goals of its final mission. The result in the last 48 hours has been slapdash improvisations and cut corners. The officers say the time remaining is too short for completing the vital siege of Tyre, Hizballah’s main S. Lebanese stronghold. A large stock of rockets and launchers has still to be eliminated there. Neither can the army finish by Monday morning, the clearing out of Hizballah fighters from the south - even from its bases in the more-or-less empty villages close to the Israel border. Hundreds of buildings are therefore being flattened by air or close-range fire.
In Saturday night media interviews, top-ranking generals made their disapproval of the government known. The chief of staff Lt. Gen Dan Halutz and OC northern command Maj Gen Udi Adam, in particular, let it be understood that the wide-scale ground finally permitted to go forward Friday shortly before the Security Council resolution had come two weeks too late and precious time had been lost.
Twelve of the 24 names have been released: Capt. Shay Bernstein, 24, from Beersheba
- 1st Sgt Itay Steinberger, 21, from Carmei Yosef
- Cpl Yaar Ben Giyat, 19, from Nahsholim
- Sgt Yosef Abutbul, 19, from Gan Ner
- 1st Sgt Tzahi Kripps, 20, from Hamaapil
- Sgt Ankonina, 21, from Netanya
- Cpl Tomer Amar, 19, from Julis
- Sgt Yaniv Tamerson, 21, from Tzipori
- Sgt-Maj Aharon Yehezkiel, 32, from Kfar Yedidya
.................................................
The Worst Government in the History of Israel
Naomi Ragen
We finished a quiet Sabbath in the relative safety of Jerusalem, only to check the news and find out the heartbreaking news that seven more Israeli soldiers have been killed and
eighty-four injured in the worst-led war in Israel's history. In addition, the government who interfered with the military (i.e.go win the war without upsetting CNN and the BBC), imposing guidelines that have helped get not only our
boys killed left and right, but our civilians as well, has now decided to accept a Security Council resolution which ensures that Israel's soldiers and her people have made their ultimate sacrifice for nothing: our kidnapped soldiers
will not be returned. Hezbollah will not be disarmed. And Israeli forces will be replaced by some U.N. force and a bunch of European anti-Semites who will allow Hezbollah to rearm.
The full text of the resolution has been published in YNET.
So far, 1,784 Israelis have responded. The overwhelming majority have this to say:
We went to war to free our kidnapped soldiers. Why aren't they mentioned?
For shame.
Olmert, Peretz, Halutz, the triumvirate of losers. Let me add this: Mr. Olmert, Mr. Peretz, Mr. Halutz: You have squandered the lives of our soldiers. You have squandered our opportunity to free the nation of Israel from
a deadly enemy. You have set the stage for the next war. By September, we will be under attack once more. Do the decent thing: Resign, all of you, and let Mr. Netanyahu, General Alon (who was kicked out because he refused to go along with the disengagement) take over.
Resign Mr. Olmert. Resign in shame for your incompetence.
Your inability to carry out a single one of the objectives you so stirringly announced at the beginning of this war. With all of you and your incompetent Kadima-led government out of
office, we will all be safer and better prepared when the rockets start to fall once again, as they inevitably will with the U.N. and the French guarding our borders.
And if you won't do the honorable thing, We will do everything we can to get you fired. You make me sick. I am ashamed to be a citizen of my country under your leadership. I am appalled to have a son in the IDF under your leadership. For shame, for shame, for shame!
.................................................
Cease fire or no cease fire, once we reach the Litani or further and clean up operations begin, we expect fighting to continue in pockets of Hizballah resistance for about 2 weeks until almost 100 percent clean. We can still expect many losses. I predict not out of prophecy but out of logic that Hizballah could send the Zelzal Missiles to Tel Aviv, Beer Sheva and Dimona tomorrow close to 8 AM when the cease fire is to take effect. I have warned some people about the idea.
Our soldiers need your prayers and Torah learning now more than ever please pick up a Tanach, Mishnah, Rambam, Gemara or something and get cracking.
Be well,
Rachamim Pauli
61 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
The following are a series of analyses of the events that have occurred here and how the Israeli government has totally and ineptly blown this opportunity to wipe out the threats we face.
-------------------------------------------------
Date: Sat, 12 Aug 2006 23:07:54 EDT
Subject: What were you doing while Israel crumbled?
Ehud Olmert is single-handedly destroying the Jewish State. As the article below describes, he made crucial gross errors in his handling of the war that have left Israel in an extremely weak, perilous position, instead of destroying her enemies, striking a severe blow against terrorism and bolstering her standing in the international community.
In addition, during the month-long war, he has succumbed to international pressure that was based on Hizbullah lies and severe media bias, and he has damaged the confidence of the IDF and encouraged disunity among its soldiers and Israel's citizens. Ten days ago, speaking with the Associated Press, he said, "I'll surprise you. I genuinely believe that the outcome of the present [conflict] and the emergence of a new order that will provide more stability and will defeat the forces of terror will help create the necessary environment that will allow me... to create a new momentum between us and the Palestinians (referring to more unilateral withdrawals)." From Arutz Sheva:
Word of Olmert's statements quickly spread through the ranks of the IDF units fighting in Lebanon. Army Radio featured a father from Ofrah, one of the communities slated for destruction due to its proximity on the "other" side of the Partition Wall. "I text-messaged my two sons serving in Lebanon to tell them to come home," he said. "It is outrageous that the man sending them to war states that the victory they are risking their lives for will result in their family being expelled from their home, allowing it to become exactly what Gaza and southern Lebanon have become."
This past Wednesday, despite the war in the north, the call-up of reserves and the needs of children and their parents in bomb shelters, 30 IDF soldiers, police officers and riot policemen were dispatched to destroy the foundations of a Jewish home in Samaria! It was being built by retired IDF officer Shaul Halfon, who served with former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the elite Unit 101. Apparently the war in the north and south is going so well that Olmert decided he had plenty of soldiers to spare to send to destroy a Jewish home, Halfon told Arutz-7.
-------------------------------------------------
[Olmert, Peretz and Peres Prevent IDF from Destroying Hizbullah]
Aug. 10, 2006 23:44 | Updated Aug. 11, 2006 15:00
Analysis: IDF fumes over denied victory
By YAAKOV KATZ (1) - The link to the story is at the end of the email; below is a brief excerpt:
...Only when all that failed did Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his cabinet approve a large-scale incursion into Lebanon and the re-creation of the security zone.
This wishy-washy decision-making process cost the IDF lives, according to one senior officer. "A military force always needs to be on the offensive, pushing forward and keeping the enemy on its toes," he said. "When you sit still for too long, you turn into a target and you begin to get hit again and again."
Most sadly, Defense Minister Amir Peretz and Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres have exacerbated the situation created by Olmert's colossal errors in judgment through their unthinking, untimely words. (2)
â€"The IDF, in its present state, is not capable of beating Hizbullah. When one adds the supposed ethical code the IDF is charged with " “where the Defense Minister praises a soldier for refraining from shooting at a terrorist holding a child on one hand and his gun in the other " there is nno chance for victory." [A quote from Manhigut Yehudit director, Michael Fuah, speaking about Mr. Peretz]
-------------------------------------------------
'It's Hard to Have the Same Confidence'
By Jonathan Finer and Molly Moore
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, August 11, 2006; Page A10 (3)
"Fifteen casualties in one day proves what price we could pay if we do not try to make the most of the political move," Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres said, referring to both the reserve and active-duty deaths on Wednesday.
In light of Olmert's devastating flaws in military strategy and his anti-leadership role during the war, Jewish leaders worldwide must demand of Israel that he be immediately ousted from his position as Prime Minister, and insist as well on Peretz's and Peres' removal from their positions as Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. In addition, international Jewish leaders must reject the UN cease-fire for what it is -- a timeout for Hizbullah to regroup, acquire another huge cache of even more advanced weapons and plan for the future destruction of Israel. THERE IS NO TIME TO LOSE!
Little Falls, NJ
August 12, 2006
-------------------------------------------------
ANALYSIS: GOVERNMENT AND IDF RACKED BY UNPRECEDENTED LEADERSHIP CRISIS
By Jonathan Ariel August 9, 2006 (4)
Relations between the country's political and military leadership are at the lowest point in the country's history, on the verge of a crisis. In addition, there is a growing lack of confidence between Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, the first CoS to hail from the air force, and many of his general staff colleagues from the ground forces, who say he and his "blue clique" [blue being the color of the air force uniform-ed] do not fully appreciate the nature of ground warfare.
According to informed sources, there is an almost total breakdown in trust and confidence between the General Staff and the PM's office. They have described the situation as "even worse than the crises that followed Ben Gurion's decision to disband the Palmach, and Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan's cynical decision to place all the blame for the Yom Kippur fiasco on the IDF's shoulders.
Senior IDF officers have been saying that the PM bears sole responsibility for the current unfavorable military situation, with Hezbollah still holding out after almost a month of fighting.
This plan was supposed to have begun with a surprise air onslaught against the Hezbollah high command in Beirut, before they would have had time to relocate to their underground bunkers. This was to have been followed immediately by large scale airborne and seaborne landing operations, in order to get several divisions on the Litani River line, enabling them to outflank Hezbollah's "Maginot line" in southern Lebanon.
According to these officers, Olmert was presented with an assiduously prepared and detailed operational plan for the defeat and destruction of Hezbollah within 10-14 days, which the IDF has been formulating for the past 2-3 years.
This plan was supposed to have begun with a surprise air onslaught against the Hezbollah high command in Beirut, before they would have had time to relocate to their underground bunkers. This was to have been followed immediately by large scale airborne and seaborne landing operations, in order to get several divisions on the Litani River line, enabling them to outflank Hezbollah's "Maginot line" in southern Lebanon. This would have surprised Hezbollah, which would have had to come out of its fortifications and confront the IDF in the open, in order to avoid being isolated, hunted down and eventually starved into a humiliating submission.
This was exactly what the IDF senior command wanted, as Israeli military doctrine, based on the Wehrmacht's blitzkrieg doctrine, has traditionally been one of rapid mobile warfare, designed to surprise and outflank an enemy.
According to senior military sources, who have been extensively quoted in both the Hebrew media and online publications with close ties to the country's defense establishment, Olmert nixed the second half of the plan, and authorized only air strikes on southern Lebanon, not initially on Beirut.
Although the Premier has yet to admit his decision, let alone provide a satisfactory explanation, it seems that he hoped futilely for a limited war. A prominent wheeler-dealer attorney-negotiator prior to entering politics, he may have thought that he could succeed by the military option of filing a lawsuit as a negotiating ploy, very useful when you represent the rich and powerful, as he always had. Another motive may have been his desire to limit the economic damage by projecting a limited rather than total war to the international financial powers that be.
Whatever his reasons, the bottom line, according to these military sources, is that he castrated the campaign during the crucial first days. The decision to not bomb Beirut immediately enabled Nasrallah to escape, first to his bunker, subsequently to the Iranian embassy in Beirut.
The decision to cancel the landings on the Litani River and authorize a very limited call up of reserves forced the ground forces to fight under very adverse conditions. Instead of outflanking a heavily fortified area with overwhelming forcers, they had to attack from the direction most expected, with insufficient forces. The result, high casualties and modest achievements.
This is the background of yesterday's surprise effective dismissal of OC northern Command Maj. General Udi Adam. According to various media sources, Olmert was incensed at Adam's remarks that he had not been allowed to fight the war that had been planned. Adam allegedly made these remarks in response to criticism against his running of the war, and the results so far achieved.
Olmert's responsibility for inaction goes much further. The US administration had given Israel the green light to attack Syria. A senior military source has confirmed to Israel Insider that Israel did indeed receive a green light from Washington in this regard, but Olmert nixed it.
The scenario was that Syria, no military match for Israel, would face a rapid defeat, forcing it to run to Iran, with which it has a defense pact, to come to aid.
Iran, which would be significantly contained by the defeat of its sole ally in the region, would have found itself maneuvered between a rock and a hard place. If it chose to honor its commitment to Syria, it would face a war with Israel and the US, both with military capabilities far superior to Iran's. If Teheran opted to default on its commitment to Damascus, it would be construed by the entire region, including the restless Iranian population, as a conspicuous show of weakness by the regime. Fascist regimes such as that of the ayatollahs cannot easily afford to show that kind of weakness.
As previously mentioned, Iran's military capabilities are no match for Israel's. Bottom line, all Iran could do is to launch missiles at and hit Israel's cities, and try and carry out terror attacks. If there is one thing history has shown, it is that such methods do not win wars. Israel would undoubtedly suffer both civilian casualties and economic damage, but these would not be that much more than what we are already experiencing. We have already irreversibly lost an entire tourist season. Any Iranian and Syrian missile offensives would be relatively short, as they are further form Israel, and therefore would have to be carried out by longer range missiles. These, by their very nature are much bigger and more complex weapons than Katyushas. They cannot be hidden underground, and require longer launch preparations, increasing their vulnerability to air operations. In addition it is precisely for such kinds of missiles that the Arrow system was developed.
The end result would be some additional economic damage, and probably around 500 civilian casualties. It may sound cold blooded, but Israel can afford such casualties, which would be less than those sustained in previous wars (for the record, in 1948 Israel lost 6,000, 1% of the entire population, and in 1967 and 1973 we lost respectively 1,000 and 3,000 casualties).
The gains, however, would be significant. The Iranian nuclear threat, the most dangerous existential threat Israel has faced since 1948, would be eliminated. It would also change the momentum, which over the past two decades as been with the ayatollahs. This could also have a major impact on the PA, hastening the demise of the Islamist Hamas administration.
Instead, according to military sources, Israel finds itself getting bogged down by a manifestly inferior enemy, due to the limitations placed on the IDF by the political leadership. This has been construed by the enemy as a clear sign that Israel is in the hands of a leadership not up to the task, lacking the required experience, guts and willpower. In the Middle East this is an invitation to court disaster, as witness by Iran's and Syria's increased boldness in significantly upping the ante of their involvement in the war.
Some senior officers have been mentioning the C-word in private conversations. They have been saying that a coup d'etat might be the only way to prevent an outcome in Lebanon that could embolden the Arab world to join forces with Syria and Iran in an all out assault on Israel, given the fact that such a development would be spurred entirely by the Arab and Moslem world's perception of Israel's leadership as weak, craven and vacillating, and therefore ripe for intimidation.
Seeing the once invincible IDF being stalemated by Hezbollah's 3,000 troops is a sure way to radiate an aura of weakness that in the Middle East could precipitate attacks by sharks smelling blood. [ed. Olmert and Peretz have neither the foresight nor courage to erase this aura of weakness.]
62 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
I should have noted that the previous comment was received courtesy of Aryeh Gallin, of the Root & Branch Assn Ltd.
Apologies Aryeh!
Mea culpa, mea culpa!
63 - Les Slater
Dave #57
"There is NO working class in the Middle East. The paradigms designed for 19th century Germany don't apply there. It's a tribal society with a bit of feudalism thrown in. Princes and peasants. No factories, no mills, no workshops."
Dave, you have your head burried in the sand.
From CIA factbook:
Lebanon Industry - "banking, tourism, food processing, jewelry, cement, textiles, mineral and chemical products, wood and furniture products, oil refining, metal fabricating"
This does not mention ports, transportation, etc.
There is a working class in Lebanon.
64 - Les Slater
Ruvy #58
"Arab society is largely a tribal society, and this fact cuts across all the "class" lines"
As I pointed out in my reply to Dave, Lebanon has a working class.
You seem to admit there are classes in Arab Mid East society, but maybe they do not manifest themselves as a concious class. This also is not true.
From the U.S. State Department 2004 Human Rights Report on Lebanon:
"On May 27, the General Confederation of Labor called for a general strike to protest high fuel prices. The protest turned violent when protestors in Beirut closed roads with burning tires. LAF troops attempted to open roads; however, protestors pelted them with stones, and LAF troops opened fire on demonstrators killing 5 persons and wounding at least 17 others (see Section 2.b.). Several of the protesters were arrested and sentenced to 30 to 60 days in jail for disturbing the peace and resisting the army; however, no legal action was taken against any of the soldiers."
Sounds like a councious class to me. 'General Confederation of Labor'? Something immagined by the State Department? Sounds like they had authority and organization sufficient to take on the military in a particular protest.
Les
65 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Les, you may actually have to take the needle off the record player playing "The Internationale" to understand this.
Lebanon has a modern society. By modern, I mean far more advanced than 19th Century Germany. It has a General Confederation of Labor. But that modern society is restricted to certain cities in the country. The rural areas of Lebanon, like those of Syria Jordan and Israel (in those parts where Arabs predominate) are largely tribal societies.
Dave, who has lived in Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, can confirm all this.
You can go back to singing "The Internationale" to the vinyl disk now.
66 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
History sometimes does repeat itself...
Palestinian Media Watch Bulletin - Aug. 13, 2006
History repeats itself: 1948 & 2006
Arabs called to leave Haifa
to facilitate the killing of Jews
1948 - Arab League tells Arabs to leave Haifa to facilitate the killing of Jews
2006 - Hezbollah tells Arabs to leave Haifa to facilitate the killing of Jews
by Itamar Marcus and Barbara Crook
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's request of Arabs to leave Haifa to facilitate the bombing and killing of Jews in Haifa is the identical call heard by the Arabs of Haifa and other cities by the Arab League attacking the new State of Israel in 1948.
2006 - Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah:
"I have a special message to the Arabs of Haifa, to your martyrs and to your wounded. I call you to leave this city. I hope you do this. ... Please leave so we don't shed your blood, which is our blood."
1948 - Palestinian journalist describes Arab leaders action in 1948:
"To the [Arab] Kings and Presidents: Poverty is killing us... yet you are still searching for the way to provide aid... like the armies of your predecessors in the year of 1948, who forced us to leave [Israel], on the pretext of clearing the battlefields of civilians... "
[Fuad Abu Higla, columnist official PA daily Al Hayat Al Jadida, in an article before an Arab Summit, critical of Arab leaders for a series of failures. Al-Hayat Al-Jadidah, March 19, 2001]
Please feel free to forward this bulletin, crediting Palestinian Media Watch
67 - Les Slater
Ruvy #65
"Lebanon has a modern society. By modern, I mean far more advanced than 19th Century Germany. ... But that modern society is restricted to certain cities in the country. The rural areas of Lebanon, like those of Syria Jordan and Israel (in those parts where Arabs predominate) are largely tribal societies."
I pay close attention to the countryside. Don't forget I am a Leninist.
21st Century Lebanon and 1917 Russia have more in common with each other than either does to 19th Century Germany.
There are limitations to that comparison, but it is head and shoulders above boiling it all down to religion and tribal relations.
Les
68 - Dave Nalle
Limits to the comparison? Yeah, like the limits to the comparison of night and day.
21st Century Lebanon - modern, cosmopolitan urbanites surrounded by medieval throwback tribal nomads. No industry or significant agriculture with an economy based on entertainment and service industries. A tiny, farmed out coastal country with no natural resources.
1917 Russia - heavily industrialized but socially primitive urban areas surrounded by peasant farmers. A primarily industrial and agricultural society. A huge, mostly land-locked country with rich agricultural and natural resource potential.
Yeah they're like clones.
Dave
69 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Re comment #68. You tell him, Dave. Just make sure he isn't singing The Internationale when you do tell Les. He may not pay attention.
I wanted to post more news, but there isn't much more to post. Well, there is one item rom Arutz Sheva English edition...
-------------------------------------------------By Ezra HaLevi
Arabs and Muslims from Iran, Hizbullah and the PA are celebrating Israel’s acceptance of the UN ceasefire, dubbing it a "surrender" and calling on Arab states to attack the new "weak" Israel.
“After one month of war against Lebanon's resistance, Israelis are the absolute losers and Hizbullah is the absolute winner of the war,” Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamida-Reza Asefi said Sunday. “The occupiers of Jerusalem failed, despite their military, economic, intelligence and diplomatic backings.”
The Iranian official said the Islamic Republic of Iran is “very pleased” with the ceasefire, according to state-run Iranian news agency IRNA. He warned, though, that attacks on Israel would continue as long as “occupation lingers.” He declined to outline whether occupation included retaining sovereignty in regions such as the Galilee " which Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah has termed “settlements” in his wartime addresses. "Let us not forget that as long as there is occupation there is resistance," he added.
Hizbullah central council member Ahmed Barakat told Qatari newspaper al-Watan Sunday, "Today Arab and Muslim society is reasonably certain that the defeat of Israel is possible, and that countdown to the disappearance of the Zionist entity in the region has begun… If a mere organization succeeded in defeating Israel, why would Arab nations not succeed in doing so if they allied? Many Arabs and Muslims viewed Israel in a fictional way and the resistance has succeeded in changing this."
Barakat boasted that none of Hizbullah’s leadership were injured, and that the group still possesses thousands of rockets and other “surprises” for use in the days following the implementation of the UN ceasefire. He added that the remaining missiles and weapons allow Hizbullah to strike Israel from afar and do not require the group to be near Israel’s border.
Photos of Hizbullah-leader Hassan Nasrallah “hang everywhere in Ramallah,” according to Al-Jazeera, “covering the walls and shop fronts and plastered across T-shirts and demonstration banners.” The number-one song in Ramallah this summer, “blaring [repeatedly] out of shops and streets stalls,” is "The Eagle of Lebanon," referring to the Hizbullah chief.
“Secularists, Christians and Muslims alike refer to the Hizbullah leader as Palestine's newest and truest hero,” the Al-Jazeera report states. “Back at Manara square in Ramallah, Waleed Ayyoub is still selling the Nasrallah images to ‘all people of all ages - even little children.’ He is especially proud of a sale made to an Arab-Israeli woman from Haifa, fleeing the Katyusha attacks on her city.”
70 - Dean
Ruvy says:
"Ehud Olmert is single-handedly destroying the Jewish State."
Does that mean the threat from Iran is moot?
71 - Les Slater
Dave #68
This whole thing started with my #52 simply observing that some of Hezbollah might find itself in important positions within the Lebanese military.
Your #53 turned that into a communist revolution.
My #54 dismissed your caricature of a communist revolution and pointed out that several steps would be needed before any struggle for power could even begin. I stated that working class parties would appear before the actual battle for socialism.
Your #57 flatly denied the existence of any working class at all, “There is NO working class in the Middle East.” Note the capitalization of ‘NO’. You even said that there are not any workshops in the Middle East.
Ruvy in #58 chimes in and agrees, at least as far as the Arabs.
Both of you flatly stated that there is no Arab working class in the Middle East.
My #63 and #64 not only showed conclusively that there is indeed a working class in Lebanon (Middle East, no?), but it is conscious and organized too.
So Ruvy in #65 changes gears and says, oh well, maybe, but they are only in some cities, the countryside is tribal.
From listening to Ruvy, Israel is tribal, so what the fuck is he talking about? Is everything tribal? Actually, classes and class relations transcend any ethnic, tribal, religious or national boundaries. This is where the 19th Century working class slogan ‘Workers of the World Unite’ comes from.
First the two of you deny a working class even exist and now are trying to pretend class antagonisms do not exist outside of the cities. Nonsense!
So, what are your objections to comparing 1917 Russia with 21st Century Lebanon? I said there were limitations on that comparison, but your arguments against the possibility of socialist revolution in Lebanon are the same as were put forward by some against the Bolsheviks putting forward the idea that the working class could lead the broader masses to take power.
There have been revolutions since 1917 where the weight of the working class was even numerically weaker than Russia.
So what the two of you are saying is that there is no possibility of a socialist revolution in Lebanon. First you say that there is NO working class, then point to its relative weakness.
You also have to look at the strength of the capitalist forces. Civil war, defeats of imperialist stooges, etc. put the working class, in conjunction with toiling masses in the countryside, where it will have the objective conditions to take power from the capitalists.
Les
72 - Les Slater
From BBSNews, August 13, 2006.
Hezbollah May be Folded into Lebanese Army
This conservative source ends with:
“The only thing that could possibly make it worse for Israel would be if Hezbollah is fully integrated into the Lebanese forces, effectively changing uniforms. Then it would truly be a war between a united and seemingly very capable resistance from Lebanon against Israeli aggression the likes of which the world has never seen.”
73 - Clavos
Les,
Don't know where you got the idea that Bbsnews, the site you cite in #72 is conservative.
Despite its claim on its masthead, even a cursory reading of some of its posts reveals it to be anything but conservative.
Humbug.
74 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Les, thanks for keeping the article going. I am going to leave off the class arguments for the moment. There is news to report.
This came in to INN last night. The boys in Bet-El are (where Israel National News is headquartered) not yet really awake.
-------------------------------------------------
Northern Command: Hizbullah Has Not Accepted Ceasefire
22:29 Aug 13, '06 / 19 Av 5766
(IsraelNN.com) A senior officer in the IDF’s Northern Command says that as of now, the Hizbullah has not accepted the ceasefire, making it one-sided.
Israel has said the ceasefire will take effect Monday at 7:00 A.M.
-------------------------------------------------
Since five thirty in the morning, when I woke up, I've heard three waves of planes going north...
This is from MEMRI, courtesy of Sergio Tezza.
-------------------------------------------------
WWW.MEMRITV.ORG , VIEWED IN ALL 192 COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD
Special Dispatch-Palestinian Authority
August 13, 2006
No. 1246
Hamas Columnist: Hizbullah's Victory in Lebanon Opens the Door for a Third Intifada
In his August 7, 2006 column in the Hamas semiweekly Al-Risala, under the title "Victory in Lebanon " Towards a Third Intifada," Ibrahim Abu Heija' encourages Hamas to use what he sees as Hizbullah's victory as a springboard for a third Palestinian intifada.
The following are excerpts from the article:(1)
"The Greatest Beneficiary [of the Victory in Lebanon] Will Ultimately Be the Palestinian Resistance"
"What has become evident from the ongoing battles in the proud and resistant south of Lebanon is the confirmation of Israel's failure in achieving its goals, and the confirmation of the decline in its deterrence capability in comparison with what it was before it got embroiled in the Lebanese quagmire " despite the bloody slaughters that Israel committed against unarmed civilians...
"What is noteworthy here is not only the collapse of the Israeli defense doctrine in the face of a well-organized community possessed of faith and will, such as Hizbullah, but what is more important in the Israeli loss is to examine the consequences of the victory and its implications on additional levels.
"Hizbullah, which achieved the victory, will be the least of those who benefit from this victory, due to certain considerations relevant to the Lebanese arena, which is based on sectarian division. This does not mean that it will not gain greater strength and legitimacy than it had before, particularly since the Israeli aggression, as is evident, proceeds without direction and without any reckoning of consequences, and therefore gets itself entangled in guerilla warfare, in which Hizbullah is unsurpassed in its skill, and has a Syrian and Iranian backing that denies it nothing in terms of arms, money, support, and protection.
"It detracts nothing from Hizbullah's standing that it should benefit from the honor of victory and that it should be a shield protecting Syria and Lebanon from breaking apart, and should be a shield for Iran against an attack on its nuclear reactor.
"However, the greatest beneficiary will ultimately be the Palestinian resistance - because all of the Arab, regional, and international equations, whether they are at variance or in agreement, revolve around the Palestinian cause, either in order to liquidate it or to defend it."
"This is an Important Moment, That the Palestinian Resistance Must Seize"
"This is an important moment, that the Palestinian resistance must seize. It benefited from [a similar moment] at the beginning of the Al-Aqsa [Intifada], when the West Bank and Gaza spoke the Lebanese language, after they had long been immersed in American and Israeli illusions. And following [the Al-Aqsa Intifada], the incomplete [Israeli] withdrawal from the Gaza Strip was carried out.
"And now, after the ceasefire [hudna] has been tried and the experience of changing the [Palestinian] Authority reached its peak, the door will be opened for a third Palestinian intifada, that will transform the resistance from the stage of reaction [to Israeli] actions to [resistance] that is carried out at our initiative."
"The Arab Regimes... Showed Solidarity With Israel... and Placed Their Bets on an Old Horse and a Losing Card"
"The intifada will be honed on [several] sides: 1) victory in southern Lebanon; 2) the necessity of developing elites and Islamic and [pan-Arab] nationalist movements, according to their service to the masses. This is especially true after the Arab regimes have lost the thin patriotic coating under which they had hidden, and openly showed solidarity with Israel and manifested their dissatisfaction with the resistance [i.e. Hizbullah] " and it did not occur to them that they had placed their bets on an old horse and a losing card.
"This will fling the door wide open for the strong elites and movements to [make] radical changes in the structures of Arab [society], and the Palestinian resistance will benefit from this, anyway you look at it.
"On the third side, the spectacle of failure in Lebanon will increase the bungling of the American administration in Iraq, and will expose its selective method of reform. This will affect America's Mediterranean plans, and will lead it either to recoil and flee, or else will lead it to measures and solutions which aim to patch together the Palestinian issue through fragile regional and international coalitions. Neither course will save the United State's standing, and will not turn back the clock.
"The Victory in Lebanon Will Weaken Those Palestinian Voices... Calling for Making Concessions... and Ceasefires"
"The fourth side is this: The victory in Lebanon will weaken those Palestinian voices that are heard from time to time, sometimes calling for making concessions, at other times calling for fortuitous ceasefires. Hamas will be given a significant margin to gain legitimacy for carrying out [armed] resistance on various fronts where [at present] the Palestinian Authority objects and the resistance desists.
"The Israeli Defeat in Lebanon Will Force Israel to Move Towards Partial Withdrawals From the Shab'a Farms, the West Bank, and Perhaps the Golan Heights"
"The fifth side: The Israeli defeat in Lebanon will force Israel to move towards partial withdrawals from the Shab'a Farms, the West Bank, and perhaps the Golan Heights, in order to diminish the effects of its defeat " but this will in no way deceive the Palestinians, the Syrians, or the Lebanese. Rather, it will push them all to make yet another move towards achieving their rights.
"In general, it is important for the Palestinian resistance to exploit the effects of the victory in Lebanon for its own interests in order to achieve its rights and move forward towards its objectives, and to encourage the whole public to unite behind its program.
"The growing aggression in the Gaza Strip against children and women is the most important incentive for accomplishing the equation of the new resistance and taking it beyond the merits of the prisoners' document and the consideration of being in authority... towards a third intifada."
Endnote:
(1) Al-Risala (Gaza), August 7, 2006.
-------------------------------------------------
The final piece is by Dave Bedein, Israel's foremeost English speaking independent investigative reporter. Bedein is a social worker by training, and this shows in his piece, called "THINK POSITIVELY"
Note: Elul is the month on the Hebrew calendar that one seeks forgiveness from other people for the sins that he has committed against them. Astrologically, it is associated with "The Maiden," a symbol of purity and innocence.
1. Peace Now had the chance to run Israel's security system and showed, once and for all, what would happen under their rule, while the "social justice" lobby of the Labor Party had their chance to assume power and showed that they would not even take care of the social welfare ministry, leaving it with no minister and leaving Israel with no social policy, with thousands of people left to suffer. The collapse of Israel's social work system in the North has given way to a new Hesed system, which may become a permanent fixture.
2. On the other hand, if a Bibi or an Effie Eitam were PM, "Peace Now" would have brought 400,000 to Kikar Rabin to demonstrate after Kfar Kana and destroyed any national unity.
3. 'Am Yisrael is en route to being united, albeit by a new Haman, yet united.
4. Red Haifa is less pink. And bombed Kibbutzim in the north and in the Negev will be less likely to dispatch people to peace rallies in the future.
5. The permanent schism between the Zionist and anti-Zionist left is now evident. Wait for those high profile treason trials those who supported the enemy during a time of war. "All the noose that's fit to print..."
6. The Israeli Arab leadership and the PA leadership have showed their total support for the genocidal policies of Hizbullah/Iran against the State of Israel. The restoration of military rule over the Israeli Arabs is in the offing, and the disbanding of the Palestinian Fourth Reich may also be in the cards. .
7. The dire consequences of Israel's unilateral surrender policy are being felt by at least half of the Israeli population. Any government that would dare suggest any such policy now will have to cope with a seething population who will not tolerate any such suggestion.
8. Wait for the ultimate investigation commissions to be empowered and convened. It will dwarf the post- Yom Kippur War Investigation commission. Who gave the order for the IDF to run out of Lebanon on May 20th and leave their best equipment for the Hizbullah? Who covered up the warnings of the 12,000 missiles in place? Who gave orders not to prepare the shelters?
9. Aliya of thousands of Jews continues during this time.
10. In IDF units and in many places in Eretz Israel, people who had never prayed to God are now calling out to the Almighty for sustenance. "It's beginning to look alot like Elul, everywhere you go..."
DAVID BEDEIN, Beit Agron, Jerusalem Shel Matah.
75 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
The following is from the Jerusalem Post, confirming the newsbrief from Israel National News in the previous comment...
-------------------------------------------------
Hizbullah refuses to disarm in south Lebanon
JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST Aug. 13, 2006
The Lebanese government was scheduled to meet on Sunday to discuss the
disarming of Hizbullah south of the Litani River, but postponed that meeting
following indications by the guerrilla group that they would not do so.
Hizbullah's refusal was conveyed to Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora
through the group's representative in the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri.