My father had a very annoying habit - he was almost always right! Even about foreign affairs 30 years after he died!
My father*, may he rest in peace, was born in Russia-Poland in 1908. Many of the adults he knew, the Jews in the village of Yenzhiveh where he lived, were veterans of the disastrous Russo-Japanese War that had occurred only a few years before he had been born. Some of these veterans came home famous, like Joseph Trumpeldor, a man who didn’t live in Yenzhiveh. He lost an arm in battle, and emigrated to the Land of Israel to help found Jewish villages there. He died fighting Arabs in 1920 at Tel Hai. His name is memorialized in the Zionist youth organization, Beitar, for which this mnemonic is used - brit hano’ár ha’ivrí ‘al shém yósef trumpeldór – “Covenant of Hebrew Youth Founded upon Joseph Trumpeldor’s Name”. Most of the veterans of the Russo-Japanese War, however, resumed their daily lives and did not rise to such fame.…
Article comments
26 - Ruvy
Roger,
Debt cancellation (your big hope here) is generally an act of enlightened self-interest. And it is usually taken in an "us against the world" attitude to strengthen the new entity being created. Thus, there was debt assumption by the federal government that was to underly the establishment of a strengthened United States in 1787. The same was true for Switzerland in the mid 1800's to strenthen the Swiss Confederation, for Canada in 1867 to establish the Dominion of Canada, for the Prussians in establishing the North German Confederation of 1867 (the real predecessor of the German Empire of 1871), and for the Australian colonies in 1900 in establishing the Commonwealth of Australia.
However, the establishment of a "world government" under the aegis of the Chinese will not necessarily involve debt cancellation for the Ubnited States - not before the Chinese have thoroughly humiliated the Americans in a number of ways, and thoroughly humiliated the Europeans and Russians as well. There will be no "us against the world" element involved - as there will be no world to be against. And the Chinese have very solid reasons to desire to humiliate those nations that humiliated China 100 years ago - vengeance. In addition, consider how the west has raped and humiliated Africa. The Chinese are not saints and from my limited understanding of them, they want money - and power. But their sense of justice may include humiliating those who have brutally humiliated others - like the western nations.
So a policy of leadig the world to the brink of economic disaster - and then taking a hefty share of its wealth as the price of leading the world away from that economuc disaster - may be a far more realistic long run (remember, East Asians do favor long run strategies) strategy being hatched in Peking.
"All you need is love" was nice for John Lennon to sing - but "all you need is cash" is a more likely Chinese tune. Finally, I would remind you of these lines from the Book of Job:
Nothing on earth is like him,
One made without fear.
He looks on everything that is high;
He is king over all the sons of pride.
That is the Leviathan.
27 - Ruvy
And this is just a remider for the lot of you: the Chinese invented both "cash" and paper money - and know far more about their own inventions than any Harvard or Oxford don can, no matter how many degrees hang from their walls.
28 - Joanne Huspek
I have only read the piece and not all the comments (I'll come back to that later) but I will say that your dad sounds like a wise man. Unfortunately, many of the things you have written about here are true. The US is no longer a "superpower" and we only have ourselves to blame. Where that puts us in the hierarchy of the world stage is yet to be seen.
I'm wondering if they are looking for immigrants in China... Just a thought.
29 - Ruvy
I'm wondering if they are looking for immigrants in China....
I don't think so, Joanne. It's less crowded here. Most of one and a half billion people live in an area about half the size of the United States, if that gives you any idea of what kind of crowding I'm talking about. A small portion of that 1.5 billion live in the non-crowded areas of the west of China, Chinese Turkestan, Tibet, Outer Mongolia etc.
With forced abortion to keep the population down, I don't think they're looking for newcomers.
30 - roger nowosielski
Not to mention, they're probably more ethnocentric than any other race (if I may be allowed to use this not very PC expression).
31 - zingzing
ruvy: "With forced abortion to keep the population down, I don't think they're looking for newcomers."
you're joking. they want your western businesses, they want your western clothes, they want your western eyes, they want your western money, they want your western language...
they are actively seeking western immigration (if you're the right type).
32 - roger nowosielski
I don't think so, zing. You must be joshing. The least thing they want is a repeat of the past. It is a homogeneous society and they don't want "the white devils" and their corrupting influence.
33 - zingzing
eh? you ever been there? white devils?
34 - roger nowosielski
I've been married to a fifth generation Chinese-American, a Mandarin - Susie Wong was her stage name; appealed in Playboy and a movie with Nancy Kwan "Flower Drum Song." So I know something about it.
"white devil"
A word used by the Chinese to refer to Caucasians, particularly from the aspect of the skin tone. Comes from the words "Guai" (Ghost/devil/spirit) and "Lo" (Man) or "Pak" (White) and "Guai".
35 - roger nowosielski
Flower Drum Song
36 - Baronius
Every time I see an article like this, I'm reminded of the inevitable rise of Russia in the 1970's, Japan in the 1980's, and Mexico (via NAFTA) in the 1990's. The three countries had a few things in common, as it turned out: corruption, lousy infrastructure, and trading rivals who were willing to work for even less. Russia and Japan also share severe problems with alcohol and suicide, both societal red flags.
China has a terrible government, supressing simmering political unrest. They have buildings that fall over, and a serious pollution problem. As they improve their standard of living, they're going to price themselves out of the labor market, except within their massive prison system. On top of that, any society with such a high percentage of unmarried men is bound to have outbreaks of violence.
Plus, they've got a prosperous, stable neighbor in North Korea.
The US should definitely take China seriously, and we have got to stop running up our foreign debt. But just like living well is the best revenge, a nation's economic rivals are no threat if that nation is booming.
37 - Christopher Rose
Fortunately, it seems we may not have to worry too much just yet about countries like China taking over the West, as this new article, based on facts rather than flights of fancy, indicates - Think Again: Asia's Rise.
38 - zingzing
roger: "I've been married to a fifth generation Chinese-American, a Mandarin - Susie Wong was her stage name; appealed in Playboy and a movie with Nancy Kwan "Flower Drum Song." So I know something about it."
and i dated a second-generation chinese-american, a han, and have visited china with her. i was treated with respect, dignity and maybe even a bit of celebrity. of course, i was in a smaller city (only 4 mil) southwest of beijing... i was treated to dinners with communist officials (heads of the school the girlfriend attended over there) and put up in fine hotels, etc. so, i too know something about it... and more recently than you do, i'd wager.
""white devil"
A word used by the Chinese to refer to Caucasians, particularly from the aspect of the skin tone. Comes from the words "Guai" (Ghost/devil/spirit) and "Lo" (Man) or "Pak" (White) and "Guai""
yeah, but you'd have to go back several decades to see the last time that was anywhere near a prevailing attitude. it would be around the same time as "chink" was last an acceptable name for chinese people. times have changed, roger.
39 - roger nowosielski
I don't know about that, zing. Prejudices are very slow to die. We may not use the "chink" name anymore, but many still think it. It was only fifty years ago that Chinese Americans weren't allow to marry whites or they'd face deportation. And they are perhaps the most homogeneous people on earth. They've certainly tasted the fruits of exposure to white, and these things are not easily erased from the national psyche.
Don't forget, too, the Asian capacity for double-face. Japanese are the best at it. They may be more courteous than anyone you've ever met. But you never know what they really think.
My ex wasn't a fool. Her father, too, was a highly educated man, an architect. And one of the top honchos in the Hop Sing Tong.
40 - Glenn Contrarian
Roger and zing -
You would be referring to 'quai-loh' - which can refer not only to whites, but can be translated also as 'foreign devil'.
That's one of the sad things about the world - the preference we whites are given - in China, in Southeast Asia, in India, and in Africa (with the recent and only temporary exception of Zimbabwe).
But why is that? Not because we're white, but because of money and power...and who has had the most money for the 1500's? Europeans, and later Americans.
For proof of this I point to the 1980's, how many were giving preference to Japanese...and how Japanese men were suddenly attracting white women as wives.
As time goes on, if China is successful in assuming the role of world leadership, then they - and ethnic Asians as a whole - may find themselves receiving the preferential treatment that we whites do now...
...AND world leadership by China may not be a bad thing, because if global warming turns out to be as bad as scientists are predicting, it will take strong leadership to take the steps necessary to mitigate the worldwide effect of global warming. Strong leadership on such a global scale does not appear to be possible by Washington, regardless of who is in charge. IMO only China may have the financial and industrial wherewithal combined with the political will to take the necessary actions.
But of course global warming doesn't exist - I'm reminded of this every time I look at Mount Rainier and see that the Nisqually glacier is less than a quarter of what it was in photos from the 1930's....
41 - roger nowosielski
The actual term she used is "lao fun/fan" The last part is phonetic - don't know the Chinese character. But the meaning is pretty much the same.
I don't share your optimistic view about Chinese benevolence. They're totally unto themselves. Have been so throughout their history. And they've always regarded themselves superior.
You can't undo this, what I regard as, national character trait overnight, not even in the climate of national cooperation, necessary as it may be because of the impending globalization process which waits for no one.
42 - Cindy
But why is that? Not because we're white, but because of money and power...and who has had the most money for the 1500's? Europeans, and later Americans.
For proof of this I point to the 1980's, how many were giving preference to Japanese...and how Japanese men were suddenly attracting white women as wives.
It's like an outline for a vignette on human soul sickness and craziness.
43 - Glenn Contrarian
Roger -
I don't think I ever said the Chinese were 'benevolent'. I agree that they've always regarded themselves as superior.
What I was referring to was that if global warming starts tumbling to its worst-case scenario, the world will need strong leadership that brooks no dissent...and the Chinese, whose governments have always been about self-interest (as most governments are, really), might be humanity's last, best hope at minimizing GW's damage to civilization.
44 - zingzing
glenn: " I agree that they've always regarded themselves as superior."
of course, they're wrong, because we're the ones who are superior. (and we've always regarded ourselves as such.)
45 - roger nowosielski
Miss the point, zing. We're all inclusive (except for the likes of Archie Bunker). Chinese are anything but.
46 - Ruvy
I looked at the article from Foreign Policy that Chris Rose offered up. Another case of whistling past the graveyard. The issue is not when Asian countries will "catch up" to the weat. The issue is how fast will the west collapse under self-induced hyper-inflation, and whether the countries in hock to the Chinese will actively resist the Chinese seizing assets when the west - particularly the US, cannot cough up the cash.
At some point the Chinese will realize that the west (a.k.a. the USA) belongs to them already - and that it is just a matter o how to take possession without killing a goose that might yet lay a few golden eggs.
47 - roger nowosielski
"Seizing the assets" and "taking possession."
There are rather drastic actions if not backed by the military. Do you really envisage such a scenario, like we're just gonna roll over and die?
I keep on repeating. China needs the West for export. It can't cut off the hand that feeds it.
48 - Ruvy
Roger,
Let's make this simple for you to understand. Let's say you have 8 kids to feed and you are in hock to the grocer for $75,000 because you haven't been economizing but buying the fanciest and most expensive foods. Your house is worth $80,000. The grocer isn't going to kick you into the street and let you starve - he doesn't want to "lose" the market - but he wants what is rightfully his and cuts you a deal. He gets deed to your house and continues to feed you to the tune of ten thou over the $80 grand. But you have to start to economize.
Something like that is what I envision for the United States in the not too distant future - 25 months, rather 25 than years.
49 - roger nowosielski
So what? We've sold the Rockefeller Center to the Japanese a while back, and in spite of the initial shock of it, what's the big deal. Lots of US assets are already in foreign hands. Yes, there will be deals and international settlement. I spoke of that. But it's not going to be a lose-lose situation. It will be workable.
50 - Ruvy
Roger,
Chinese takeovers are all going to be more like the Russian exploitation of Poland was a half century ago or more than some deal with the Japanese. Americans will become strictly aware of how much is being skimmed off the top to go to China, adn there will be immense resentment over this.
That's 'so what'.
51 - Christopher Rose
Folks, please note that the Foreign Policy article about Asia I linked to in #39 was written by a person with a Chinese name and based on facts and reasoning.
This is in stark contrast to everything Ruvy is saying on the subject, which is based on a stupefying (to him) combination of unsupported suppositions and faith based superstition.
Ruvy tries to brush off reason at every opportunity because it is his mortal enemy, so we get dismissive remarks like "Another case of whistling past the graveyard."
There's a graveyard not 100 yards from where I live and I walk past it most days and have never felt the need to whistle, but then I don't go around with a head full of hate and superstition.
Everything he is saying, both on this thread and over at the Jewish Guilt article, isn't based on actual contemporary facts but ancient and outdated creation myths, resentment of the past, hatred and fear of others, and the desire to infect others with his silliness.
Don't buy in to it; there is nothing to fear except fear itself...
52 - Ruvy
The Foreign Policy article, contained straw men - "all Asia is not one unit" - duh! It spent its time on false issues and analogies that were interesting and even persuasive - if you could actually believe in the stability of western economies.
And that is the real issue. The stability of the western economies - particularly that of the United States - is not credible any longer. This is clear in the States, where the whole Ponzi scheme of bad bankers loans is coming crashing down and unemployment - real unemployment - has surpassed 14 million people.
So the focus of the article - how fast will Asian countries "catch up" to the west - is a false focus. The true focus ought to be on how fast will hyper-inflating economies collapse, reaching the level of "Asia" today.
My father's fantastical yarn - told him as a child - was an analogy. And this analogy is coming to fruition now, over thirty years after he passed to his reward. And that has been the point of this article.
53 - Christopher Rose
That's right, Ruvy; you can snatch six words out of context and call it as straw man. Way to go with the compelling reasoning, it is so persuasive.
You're not an economist, you're not a politician, you're not a banker, you're just an ex fast food worker now living in a tiny village in the Middle East, but you know better.
Must be all that magical thinking you do, the magic being in how you manage to sell such drivel to yourself...
54 - roger nowosielski
Ruvy,
I was living in Poland when it was a satellite. In addition to military presence, the Polish Politburo was manned if not by the Soviets outright, then at least by those who towed the party line. There was no room for opposition.
If those are some of the features you're referring to, sorry - it ain't gonna happen.
55 - zingzing
roger: " Chinese are anything but [inclusive]."
i don't know why you think that.
56 - roger nowosielski
Perhaps I'm going by what I see in the Chinese immigrant community.
57 - Glenn Contrarian
Roger -
That reminds me of when I was working for the USPS. An tall, gaunt, frankly spooky-looking old man had just finished his transaction, which was a small package he was sending to Latvia. He turned to go, and I said, "Spaceeba, tovarisch!"
He turned back to me and said in a deep voice, rich with a Eastern European accent, "Don't ever say that to me again."
By what had to be my deer-in-the-headlights expression, he probably felt he had to explain. "That's what the KGB would say when they were about to take you away."
When he said that, you KNEW he knew what the heck he was talking about. To this day, I still shiver when I remember the tone in his voice.
The Cold War was no joke.
58 - Glenn Contrarian
Roger -
Comment #57 was in reference to what you said about living in Poland, btw.
If it makes you feel better, my Filipino nephew was walking around the house today wearing a t-shirt that had a picture of a lot of crumpled beer cans. The caption was, "What I did in Krakow".
59 - roger nowosielski
Poland was nowhere near as bad as Russia. Even so, let me direct you to Eminent Domain, a fairly grim and realistic picture of the Polish Politburo (with Donald Sutherland and Anne Archer).
Worth watching.
60 - Ruvy
That's right, Roger. There was no room for opposition in Poland. But there were shitloads of real resentment. And that is what you will see when the Chinese attempt to take their due in the States.
From the looks of things, when Obama realizes that he can't play anymore shit and shinola with the Chinese, he will start coughing up the goods like a man worshipping at the ivory throne.
Your goods - not his. This guy is a slick thief from Chicago. He hangs only with the best - like Rahm Emanuel and Hot-rod Rodney.