Our Leader Paul Martin has said that he will not lead the party into another election, which simply means more sleepy nights to come in the months ahead. Here are my predictions based on current political jockeying going in the party.
Round one candidates whose will consider throwing their names:
-Frank McKenna
-Michael Ignatieff
-Martin Cauchon
-Scott Brison
-Joe Volpe
-Maurizio Bevilacqua
-Denis Coderre
Copps, Manley, Tobin are not coming back. Most of their past key organizers( Klander, Apps etc.) have already joined other potential candidates.
After negotiations and when the leadership starts to heat up, the following will drop to support other candidates.
-Scott Brison
- Denis Coderre
-Maurizio Bevilacqua
All three of them are excellent candidates, young and politically savvy and still have time on their hands. They will join McKenna or Ignatieff in the leadership to build for the next one or later, especially Brison.
There will be four candidates in the final round:
-Frank McKenna
-Michael Ignatieff
-Martin Cauchon
-Joe Volpe
Volpe will be an ‘also ran’ candidate with under 10% support, Cauchon will have 10-20% support with the rest with McKenna and Ignatieff. The battle will come down to be between McKenna and Ignatieff, with McKenna having the edge because of his contacts and experience in politics and most important his ability to raise millions needed for the leadership coffers.
Both McKenna and Ignatieff have a lot of respect for each other and who ever wins, the other person will either be Deputy leader of the party and I won’t be surprised if they talk that ahead of time.
Cauchon, Coderre, Bevilacqua, Brison will make it into cabinet (or shadow) if elected.
Two things that will happen. Potential candidates will have to take a honorable pledge to not get into vindictive things with other candidates and their organizers after the race and this leadership will see more members signed up than then previous one.
Article comments
1 - gypsyman
Care for a little Trudeaumaina? Alexander Truedeau would be fun, probably too young yet. I had forgotten about Frank McKenna, our Amabassador to the U.S. Hmm two former amabassadors fighting it out for leader of the party. Maybe it will even be polite.
gypsyman
2 - Brent
Alexander Trudeau has exhibited little or no interest in politics yet, and I don't think the Liberals would vote him in as leader without him actually doing something risky like running for election.
Any talk of either Stronach (!) or Goodale? What impact would a Liberal leader from the Prairies have on the Liberal Party and on the Prairie support of Liberal candidates.
3 - Triniman
gypsyman, who's the other former ambassador you speak of? McKenna and who?
I believe it would be a huge mistake for Belinda to run. She hasn't earned her way in politics and while Michael Ignatieff isn't a political veteran, either, he's accomplished much more in life on his own.
In Manitoba, the provincial Conservative party appointed their leader about 5 years ago, denying the public the interest and exposure a leadership contest would have had. The guy turned out to be a disappointment. The Liberals should have a healthy contest for leader rather than a coronation for someone. McKenna vs. Ignatieff would be an interesting contest. Canadians don't know Ignatieff very well but he is a riveting speaker, as far as intellectuals go, while McKenna is more of a populist, I believe, ie. more of a man of the people, IMHO.