In the past I've cringed a little when critics called our president the "liar in chief," if only out of respect for the office, but there comes a point where the spin and deception coming out of his flaks and showing up on his teleprompter go beyond what I can excuse.
This week, while speaking in economically ravaged Wisconsin, President Obama had the gall to boast about the fact that unemployment in Wisconsin has apparently dropped by 1 tenth of a percent in the last month from 7.9% to 7.8%. I guess it sounded good to an audience of paid union cheerleaders, but it's a classic example of the maxim that "there are lies, damned lies and statistics."
In our ongoing recession in which there has been no recovery, despite the president's continued laughable claims to the contrary, we have learned that the official unemployment figures mask a reality in which, even with endless extensions of unemployment payments, more and more people have just given up on finding decent jobs, have taken temporary work, gone off the books, or taken jobs far below their skills and pay level. Many of them have just stopped looking for work entirely and are living hand-to-mouth with one income in a former two income household or getting by on the kindness of relatives.
Wisconsin provides a perfect example of this. Sure, the official unemployment figure is down by .1% in a month. It's even down by 1.1% over the past year. But the actual figures tell a different story. In fact, 3200 fewer people have jobs in Wisconsin than did last month and 38,000 fewer have jobs than did at the same time next year. That's not more people working as the president claims, that's more people walking the streets or sitting home watching TV in despair drinking a beer they can barely afford. Maybe some were lucky and packed up to look for jobs in another state, but they aren't working in Wisconsin.
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Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Ruvy
Dave, there is an easy way to tell if a politician is lying - his lips are moving.
2 - jeannie danna
Dave,
LOL! We thought of YOU during the speech on Labor Day!
It must have been killing you to see the president of the United States SUPPORTING the American labor force, instead of UNION- BUSTING from the Oval Office as his predecessors did. GO UNION!
and...Where is a link? How do you get away with the slander of the American worker? I thought only celebs and politicians were fair game.
You say we need the freedom to create our own jobs out of one side of your mouth while the other slams the very people who risk their lives in-order to keep the middle class alive!
I've got an extra serving tray around here, Dave, I'll send it to you.
JD Go Union!
3 - handyguy
The national unemployment rate went from 9.5% to 9.6% in August because there were more people looking, so Dave's facile reasoning for calling the president a liar is shaky.
In a population as large as the US, those numbers are often fluctuating. A more important fact is that the private sector has added jobs for eight months in a row now. And manufacturing activity has increased for 13 months in a row.
What we have is a modest, slow recovery -- too modest and too slow to satisfy anyone.
But to leap to the conclusion that this "proves" current policies are failing is just political rhetoric, a caricature, and, yes, a lie. If the policies were failing, companies would still be shedding jobs, and manufacturing activity would be going down.
And repeatedly disparaging extended unemployment benefits, in a recession as deep as the one we're slowly pulling out of, is not only crass and cold, it ignores one very important fact:
That unemployment checks are nearly always 100% spent, not saved, and immediately. They are strongly stimulative, especially for retailers.
4 - Baronius
Jeannie, your comment doesn't make any sense.
5 - Dave Nalle
A more important fact is that the private sector has added jobs for eight months in a row now. And manufacturing activity has increased for 13 months in a row.
Do you have a source for this? BEA statistics don't agree on manufacturing. They show almost all sectors down for the last 12 months except for investment. As for private sector jobs, the BLS shows them down substantially over the period you indicate, with the only signficant growth being in federal government jobs and healthcare. And the federal jobs took a huge hit in August as they started letting census workers go. All told we've lost 300,000 jobs in the last three months, negating much of the weak job growth we had this Spring, which barely made a dent in last year's 4.8 million jobs lost.
Dave
6 - Dave Nalle
Jeannie, your comment doesn't make any sense.
I know. I don't think she read the article.
Dave
7 - handyguy
From USA Today, last week:
The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.6% from 9.5% as 550,000 people, including discouraged workers who had been on the sidelines, entered the labor pool.
Private employers added 67,000 jobs, more than the 40,000 expected by economists, with gains in construction, health care and professional and business services. The loss of 54,000 jobs overall was more modest than the 105,000 economists anticipated.
Equally heartening: Job losses for June and July were revised downward by 123,000 and private-sector job increases for that period were revised upward by 66,000.
Stocks surged after the report.
8 - handyguy
"Manufacturing activity" is not exactly the same as adding jobs, but it is [modestly] good news. The figures come from the monthly survey by ISM, basically purchasing managers at companies nationwide:
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the 13th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 16th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.
[sample individual responses:]
- "Still experiencing intermittent delays in electronic components due to capacity and raw materials." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- "International sales are especially strong. Domestic business is solid." (Chemical Products)
- "Orders and business still strong." (Primary Metals)
- "Order rate has slowed some. Supplier capacity in general seems to be improved." (Machinery)
9 - Dave Nalle
Exports are also up. Perhaps that's where the manufactured goods are going. However, productivity is down, so how they are producing more goods with fewer workers being less productive is certainly mysterious.
Dave
10 - handyguy
Google "eight consecutive months private sector jobs" and you'll see several articles from the last week. The census jobs being added and subtracted during that period make separating private jobs out more useful. It's actually "9 of the last 10 months," every month from Nov '09 to Aug '10 except December.
We still need to add a lot more: 200,000 to 300,000 a month to make a significant dent in unemployment. But considering that we were losing half a million jobs a month, or more, in late '08 and early '09, things are at least much improved.
And keep in mind that these are net numbers. 4 million jobs a month are filled in the US, but nearly as many were lost in recent months. At least the balance has been mildly positive lately.
11 - Capt. Williard
"we have learned that the official unemployment figures mask a reality"
"We"? Speak for yourself, kemosabe. That's old news. If you think this is new to Obama, you're fooling yourself. Did you trust former politicians claims about employment numbers?
12 - jeannie danna
Yes, I read it, Dave and why can't you and Baronius understand the comment?
I was mentioning how much I admired the President for supporting Union workers, unlike, Bush SR. who scolded the American Teachers Union in public. There are many other incidents...
What you don't want to admit is that the unions are why YOU make a living wage today, even without being in one.
JD
13 - jeannie danna
My entire comment came from this:it sounded good to an audience of paid union cheerleaders,
14 - jeannie danna
GO UNION!
15 - jeannie danna
You also took the Presidents words out of context, Dave.
If you recall, he was comparing them to what they would have been without any stimulus money.
If we are waiting for the GOP to take over and save this economy, we are all going to wait a long time. The private sector could have created jobs years ago, they are just biding their time. Jobs now would make the Obama Presidency look good; they are soo preoccupied with smearing him, that the rest of us can all go to hell!
JD :(
16 - Tommy Mack
Last Friday the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Employment Situation Summary, should anyone care to look.
Dave’s point is interesting. Have you considered what things would look like in a McCain/Palin administration? There are a couple of world class liars " McCain claiming Arizona border violence is up even though FBI statistics say ‘no they are not.” And who can forget the Palin “Death panels.”
Imagine what they could do with real statistics.
Tommy
17 - jeannie danna
OM G, Have you considered what things would look like in a McCain/Palin administration?
I did and got really ill, we no longer had insurance, college credit, edible food and clean water(anywhere). The Draft was reinstated and Social Security wasn't even privatized for growth, it was just taken outright. They still hated *fereners*, but they were allowed to stay, if they became maids and servants with the rest of us. There weren't any unions to help form, individual-worker's bargaining-power so, child labor came out in the open(instead of hiding it and it's profit's offshore(like they do now).
JD My picture describes a type of America that we actually had not so long ago...
18 - jeannie danna
Anyone that's scared by the GOP's insistence that we aren't safe from terrorists, should consider the fact that we aren't safe from the GOP.
This is who you should fear.
19 - Dr Dreadful
I confess that we who administer the Section 8 program may be partly responsible for the uptick in the unemployment rate. When our clients report to us that they've lost their jobs, we make them prove it by filing for unemployment, even if they know they're not eligible (they got fired, they resigned for no good reason, they haven't worked enough etc).
And I'm still waiting for Dave to make good on his claim that the decrease in Wisconsin's unemployment rate is entirely - not largely, mind you, but entirely - because people are giving up looking for work.
20 - Braden
Great article, Dave. I chuckled in hearty agreement as I read it.
21 - handyguy
Tommy's link got messed up, so here you go, fellow policy wonks:
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bureau of Economic Analysis
22 - handyguy
For those who haven't seen the president's stunning and fiery speech today in Ohio:
Obama’s Ohio Speech
I hope this knocks Braden's chuckles down a notch. John Boehner deserves every bit of the negative attention he gets in the speech.
23 - Zedd
What is more disturbing is how these so called patriotic types don't want the country to do well. They just want power not even for themselves...for wealthy people. CONFOUNDING!!
Dave big business is doing okay. How about a positive piece on that. Not a spin or a really off the wall retelling of that reality to prove that what is working is actually not.
You are no patriot or libertarian or anything. You just want to be right, at any cost.
People like you are the problem in this country. If you are serious about starting a movement you will start a movement to eradicate bandwagoning issue-less bobble heads.
24 - Baritone
There are a lot of contradictory numbers floating around out there. Dave and others may bitch about Obama cherry picking those that support his agenda, but then, the Rs cherry pick their own #s to paint their picture. Who is telling us true? Anybody's guess.
But, the preponderance of data has generally supported the notion that the economy is slowly - painfully slowly - recovering.
It's just like losing weight. We fatsos didn't gain 75 pounds overnite, and we won't lose it overnite. The economy didn't go into the dumpers in an instant, nor will it recover with the snap of John Boehner's well bronzed thumb and over-used middle finger.
Not everything that Obama has done regarding the economy has worked, but neither has it all failed. Gains have been made. Two steps forward, one step back, as they say.
I believe there is some legitimacy to the notion that cons are so loathsome of Obama, that some are, in fact, actually holding back their own business recovery just to defeat the Dems in Nov and Obama in 2012. They would rather sit on their cash, withhold expansion, withhold hiring, just to get their licks at a president they hate.
Could be.
B
25 - jeannie danna
Can anyone justify borrowing 700,000,000,000,000 to give to the top 2%, leaving the rest of us to pick-up the tab?
Don't say they will trickle it down on our heads; that's what they've been doing for the last forty years...
JD