I noticed this week British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett had for the first time admitted one of the coalition's supposed exit strategies for Iraq is for it to be broken into three separate states. After all the blood that's been shed in Iraq to date, it probably seems a bizarre call indeed - but historically, it might also be the only feasible solution to a seemingly impossible problem.
It's also appropriate (although not desirable, by a long shot) that the British are involved and (sadly) getting their fingers burnt, because it is largely down to them that the problem of Iraq exists in the first place. To get the idea of how history has a history of repeating in Iraq, you need to turn the clock back about 90 years or so, in the aftermath of WWI, when the victorious British and French got first dibs on the great carve-up of the Ottoman Empire - having just fought a long and very nasty war on two fronts against both the Germans and the Turks.
It began under the secret Sykes-Picot agreement, concluded in 1916 and two years before the war ended, in which Britain and France began marking out their desired spheres of influence in the region should Turkey be defeated. In the final wash-up, the British received a number of mandates to govern in the region, including Palestine (which was to have been under international control) and Iraq, but in reality they were simply artificial creations whose borders were decided at the stroke of a pen. The French got what was to become Syria and Lebanon. The British, as we now know, got control of a whole lot of oil and in Palestine, Jordan and Iraq, more trouble than a bag full of cats.
The three Ottoman Empire districts of Mosul (mainly Kurdish), Baghdad (read: "Sunni triangle'') and Basra (Shia, and heavily influenced by its Persian [Iranian] neighbours), and remembering that three's the important number here, became what is today's modern Iraq - an oil-rich country (and bordering oil-rich Kuwait, which was already under British protection) that had not previously existed, much less been regarded as a single entity. In one fell swoop, that act turned Iraq into what has been called the bastard child of the British Empire, because in a classic example of the very opposite of Britain's proven imperial strategy of divide and rule, it actually brought together a disparate group of dozens of different religious traditions and national identities - Kurds, Sunni muslims, Shia, Sufi, Christians, Assyrians, Armenians, Turkomen, Persians and so on and so forth.
.jpg?t=20120527181101)
Article comments
1 - William
visit Christians of Iraq to read about what is being done to the Assyrians by their Muslim neighbors.
william
2 - Bliffle
George Bush, coward that he is, will push this responsibility off onto a future administration. He's a guy who has never accepted responsibility in his life, and this will be no different. The rest of us will suffer from the bad decisions of this person who has power extending far beyond his judgement and experience. I suppose that fitting retribution for the deluded ones who supported him, but it's sad that so many innocents must suffer from his recklessness.
3 - STM
William, Christians in modern Iraq - although subject to some discrimination - have always been part of government (possibly not a good example, but even Tariq Aziz was Christian) and commerce, and everyday life generally, even the ruling class, without too many problems, even under Saddam, but I worry that things will change again for the worse in Baghdad. Things don't look promising generally.
Bliffle, everyone's to blame. The Brits too. They should have known better, as should Bush's highly paid advisers in Washington.
It is a worry that we aren't always told the whole truth. You expect some untruths from politicians but trying to link Iraq to bin-Laden style terrorism was just ridiculous. We need to find a way out of there.
4 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Stan, If you know Middle East history, then the answer to your essay is a given. Western nations (or more precisely, their leaders) don't give a damn about the wogs who live here - any of us. You, having spent time in Iraq, might, but the big players (sorry, but your PM doe not rate as big player in this, even if troops from Australia are there putting their lives on the line) don't.
The news is a carnival mirror of reality (that story about the Vienamese immigrant to America heing hung out to dry by an Austrian immigrtant to Amerida is a great example of this), and the big players don't give a damn about their repsonsibilities. They give a damn for some good dope and a piece of ass... And we all "benefit" from this, eh? Our "friends with benefits" in high office...
I musta gotten up off the wrong side of the bed this morning. The world looks like a pile of trash.
5 - STM
Mornin' Ruvy ... perhaps that's because it often is a pile of trash. Be nice if we could live in a world where none of this nonsense was going on, eh old boy??
Iraq, I must say, really does worry me though mate. Everyone I speak to who can remember at least recent history says the best time was the short period of the leadeership of the two Arif brothers, but mainly Abdul Salim (who was no saint). Interesting, too, that neither of them had any real liking for the Baathists or Nasserites, and their pan-Arabist ideals were tempered by healthy doses of pragmatism. Both were quite "western" and secular in their outlook, and tried hard to broker some measure of equality between all of Iraq's groups - but most notably with the Kurds.
So of course, they get smashed. Which always seems to be what happens in the Arab world. Be nice to know definitively why that is so, then perhaps we could all work around it and save ourselves a lot of grief in the process.
But just like in Israel, the Brits have plenty to answer for - that's why I can't understand why they have been involved in this worthless exercise (the poorly-planned peace, rather than the well-executed war to remove a madman). They know how dangerous such adventurism can be.
6 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Stan,
This whole deal is a lot bigger than just Mesopotamia and its three provinces... It's all going to go regional in a very public way soon, and we're in the region.
Our boys are in Kurdistan, though if you ask the government, they'll deny it - along with half a dozen criminal charges being laid at their door lately.
The Mossad back door information service, Debka, is starting to piss in its pants. They've been very quiet about the two naval battle groups from the U.S. that have arrived in the vicinity of late. They don't know what to make of it.
When you actually believe in things like prophecy and the messiah, like yours truly, it is a lot easier to figure out what's going on, but secular Israelis in the Mossad have not got a clue.
It's almost symbolic, Stan. In Ma'aleh Levona, when we were in synagogue praying for G-d to "cause the wind to blow and the rain to fall," around 8:30 in the morning, there was a crack of thunder. We had a huge thunderstorm today, complete with heavy winds and dark angry clouds descending from the north.
In Jerusalem, where the "wise men" who comprise our "leadership" reside, there was not a drop of rain, though apparently the day was cloudy. These guys don't give a rat's ass about the basis of our faith, which is the primary reason we buggers are all here, whether we admit it or not. So they can't see the chess pieces being lined up in front of them.
Let me give you something to stick in your pipe and smoke while your watching rugby or cricket in Oz: From Aryeh Gallin of the Root & Branch Information Service
ARYEH: ANALYSIS, LADY AND GENTLEMEN?
Conflicting versions released by Germany and Israel of an incident in which two Israeli F-16 warplanes flying low said to have shot two missiles at a German naval vessel off Lebanon
October 26, 2006, 11:32 AM (GMT+02:00)
DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources have investigated the incident, which was first disclosed by the German daily Der Tagesspiegel earlier Wednesday, Oct. 25. They confirm that it did occur and involved six Israel F-16 warplanes and the German navy command ship, the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern F 218 frigate, which leads the UN naval force opposite Lebanon.
Tuesday evening, Oct. 24, Israeli warplanes were flying low over Damour 20 km south of Beirut on their way to gather intelligence of arms smuggling to Hizballah through the Lebanese coast. The European fleet deployed to monitor the coast for arms smuggling cannot get close enough because the ships are not allowed by the Lebanese government to access coastal waters. On their way from west to east, the Israeli F-16s passed low over the German command vessel, releasing infra-red decoys to ward off any rocket attack. This triggered an alert on the German frigate and its crew jumped to battle positions.
At this point, the Israeli and German versions diverge.
The frigate’s officers flashed Berlin a signal that Israeli air force planes had fired two missiles near the ship. Israel denies this. The Israeli defense minister Amir Peretz, who talked by telephone to the German defense minister Franz Josef Jung Wednesday night, insisted the ship’s officers were wrong. The conversation was described as acrimonious. DEBKAfile’s sources in the German capital add that Israel agreed to send over films taken by its warplanes in the course of the episode to convince the Germans that no missiles were fired and expected Berlin to release a notice of clarification on this point.
DEBKAfile’s military experts say that a clash between Israeli air force and UN naval units was bound to happen. [you don't need to be an intelligence analyst to figure this out, just intelligent - RiJ] The original fault rested with the Israeli government’s acceptance of the clause in UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which denies UNIFIL authority to intercept arms smuggling into Lebanon or armed entry to the south without formal Lebanese government permission.
Such permission is routinely vetoed by Hizballah ministers.
Israeli’s military and intelligence chiefs warned the government against accepting this clause. It has indeed resulted in gunrunning thriving between Syria and Lebanon by land and by sea. In the absence of UNIFIL counter-action, Israel informed Washington, the UN in New York, Unifil commanders and the European governments - which deployed forces in Lebanon - that its air force would be obliged to carry out low passes over the smuggling routes for as long as the UN failed to police them. This was not accepted. The French president and defense minister last week threatened to fire at Israeli planes flying over Lebanon. No one expected the first incident between Israeli warplanes and the UN force to involve a German warship.
------------------30------------------------------
Not mentioned in this story is the fact that the French have threatened to fire on Israeli planes if they violated Lebanese airspace. If the batsmen and bowlers are not overgrabbing of your attention, maybe you can wander over to the Debka site, and see what they have to say. All I can tell you is that whatever is going on here ain't cricket, and the boys at Debka are not sure of what they're seeing either.