As a man who did not vote in November 2000 and 2004 (or in any U.S. election since 1992 for that matter), I was able to consider the U.S. Presidential candidates, George W Bush and John F. Kerry, without a great deal of passion. And, though I know that John Kerry lost in 2004, I am not inclined to rule him out in the future as had a few of his supporters (who dropped criticism on the guy like he was a bad scene in one of the earlier Star Wars prequels).
So what does Kerry and his party have going for them at this point?
First off, Sen. Kerry is going to roll in to 2008 as one of the few recognizable presidential candidates, other than perhaps Sen. Hillary Clinton. Who are the Republicans going to field? Who knows, but it's not going to be Vice President Cheney. Also, you're likely not going to see a Republican governor emerge as a successful presidential candidate who fights the "powers that be" like Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter did against long periods of Republican White House control (such a Republican candidate is part of the "powers that be" to begin with). As for Republican candidates from the Congress , the U.S. military or a previous administration's cabinet, I have to ask, "who do know who has something to fight for?" ...Yeah, see my point. Any Republican is going to be forced to stand by the 2000-2008 U.S. Administration's image to field themselves successfully as a Republican candidate. So Republicans are going to end up going with a relatively little known presidential candidate for 2008 and that candidate is going to be weighed down by being forced to take an inherently defensive position (Republican presidential candidate: ...no really, I'm not joking, the Bush administration executed perfectly for the last eight years). So, I am giving the advantage to the Democrats in 2008.
Then we have the Democratic field: basically, Senator John Kerry, Senator Hillary Clinton and her spouse and various lesser known Democratic politicians. In that pool of candidates, I give it to Kerry. Kerry has already been through the presidential campaign ringer once and he did extremely well versus a sitting president who was in charge of a fearful country that had been attacked by a foreign entity. Kerry has lost other political races before, such as a congressional race in the 1970s; but, he came back from this defeat and won a Senate seat. So, Kerry has shown that he can rebound in to a stronger position. Kerry has already been vetted by the press, both inside and out; he's not perfect: a "summer" (three months) in Vietnam does not a tour make. But, nevertheless, everything appears to be legit. People say Kerry quit in 2004; I disagree. Kerry knew that he would lose, despite months of recounts and investigations of technicalities, etc. and he wisely chose to surrender and fight another day rather than politically bleed out in some kind of last stand that would have surely alienated him even from members of his own party (Remember, this is an institutionalized political contest in a civilized Democratic Republic we are talking about, not Battle Royale).
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - RJ
Amazon link needed...
2 - RJ
Most Dems still believe Bush was weak in 2004, and only won re-election because Kerry was such a shitty candidate. Therefore, the Dems will not re-nominate Kerry in 2008.
Hillary is a lock.
3 - Silas Kain
I can't see Kerry nominated at all. Many Dems think he was weak, indecisive and the singular reason for Bush's election. As I've mentioned previously, we need a transitional President - someone who will just come in for four years and do a bang up job to straighten the mess out. It's not that difficult to understand.
4 - John Bambenek
It'll be Hillary vs. Guiliani
Only wild card is POSSIBLY Condi.
5 - Silas Kain
I disagree. There are too many Conservatives within the GOP who detest Giuliani. As much as I would like to believe that America is smart enough to look toward a Black woman as President, I don't see that, either. The racial divide in America thrives just below the surface. Hillary is a possibility but she's far from a lock. She needs to beat the GOP war machine next year first.
6 - Scott
Do you think the extreme right-wing conservative christians would throw their support behind Giuliani? I doubt it...
7 - Marty Thau
People seem to forget that Guiliani was despised in New York by blacks.
That should be enough to cancel him out.
8 - Big Time Patriot
It could well be Hillary, but there is plenty of time for someone else to come on strong for the Democrats before then, maybe even that DA from New York, Spitzer...
Guiliani? Maybe he could be the first President to have an official First Mistress like he did in New York when he paraded around his girl friend while still married...
Don't think Republican moderates could out fight the Religious wing nuts to get Guiliani nominated.
9 - Big Time Patriot
I forgot to mention that I agree with RJ that Kerry was a crappy candidate and I think a lot of us Democratic leaning people are pretty pissed at him.
10 - Sacto Dan
Stick a fork in Kerry, he is done.
11 - SFC SKI
Gore-Kerry 2008, because we can't learn from history.
12 - dee
I am pissed at Kerry. The man is too wishy washy. One day he is for something and the next day he is against it. Don't force me to vote republican again !
13 - Pamela
Interesting analysis... Kerry is far from done - here
14 - John Bambenek
There may be many conservatives who detest Guiliani, but in the end, there is no one else left who can run...
Frist? Senators never win, and he's new regardless. Rommey? Please. There is no one but Guiliani who has any recognition AT ALL. Conservatives may detest him, but they detest Hillary more.
15 - Lono
Hillary? No, the Repubs are already painting her as a lesbian - and the gay angle has always worked in Rove's favor.
Won't be Kerry either. If he couldn't beat the shittiest sitting president in history, what chance does he have against a real opponent (I am thinking a Guiliani/ McCain ticket).
nope, us Dems need a red blooded retard somewhere from the heartland.
16 - Dave Nalle
I find it hard to imagine anyone deluded enough to think that Kerry will get nominated again. He was an absolute disaster as a candidate, and the moveon.org folks who now 'own' the democratic party were never fond of him.
Dave
17 - Paul D
All you democrats who are writing off Kerry are dead wrong. You're so weak that you repeat the Rove lines like "wishy washy". It is you who are weak and let America down if you voted for Bush. While Bush may be the worst president ever, republicans are ultra loyal to him and many Americans were reluctant to switch in wartime. How badly they wish had switched now!
John Kerry is all grit. He flattened Bush in the debates and had a great convention. It's his toughness, foreign policy and military expertise which will make him a VERY attractive candidate in 2008. Furrthermore, his integrity is impeccable. That's why they had to try and denigrate his Vietnam service. That is now old news now that they'll be unable to use. He has the experience to win and will be a great president.
18 - Mia Schatz
I agree Kerry will be back. He's been very active since the election and has been slamming Bush's inept foreign policy. He will definitely get my vote. I admire his toughness. He's an excellent speaker too, whereas Hillary will put you to sleep.
Kerry came within inches against a wartime incumbent in 2004 and will win in 2008.
19 - chris franklin
And if Kerry had won, we'd hear people say the following: "he was such a great candidate, always strong on the issues, the Kerry revolution is just getting started, he's as smart as Bill Clinton but taller..." :)
20 - Eric Berlin
Paul - I agree that Kerry is a fine candidate with great character, but he ran only a so-so campaign. So he shares the blame along with Shrum and the rest of them.
Hillary is the front-runner in 2005. But 2008 is a long long way off. There will be serious competition from the likes of Edwards and Biden (who already announced, pretty much!).
I don't think Kerry will fare very well in '08. To be honest, Gore has a better shot at coming back.
The really interesting primaries will be on the GOP side, and it may well be a Battle for the Soul Of type of deal.
I'd not be surprised to see a social conservative win the nomination, as a Sure Lock winner in the general like McCain gets eaten by his own.
21 - Tan The Man
If Hilary wins the nomination and somehow manages to win the presidency, it will be proof that the presidency means absolutely nothing if someone who's as underqualified as Hilary wins. Then Congress and the House become ever more important to the stability and integrity of this country.
22 - Eric Berlin
Explain how Bush is/was more qualified than Hillary Clinton.
If qualifications were the marker, we'd be in Year Five of the Gore Administration.
Damn, imagine how different things would be now...
23 - andy marsh
kerry still hasn't signed the SF-180 and I promise you he doesn't stand a chance until he does!
24 - andy marsh
and more than likely...once he does...he surely be toast!
25 - JR
Marty Thau: People seem to forget that Guiliani was despised in New York by blacks.
Forget? I never knew it in the first place.
...or did I?
In any case, if most people forget, it probably doesn't matter.