Last December and January, the sabre-rattling started between the United States and Iran. Just last week, Condoleeza Rice retooled a familiar statement once applied to Iraq to our new enemy: "We do not have a problem with the Iranian people. We want the Iranian people to be free. Our problem is with the Iranian regime."
Iran, of course, is the second member of the Axis of Evil. The U.S. is trying to gain multilateral support for action against Iran, but is currently batting 0-for-1 on WMD accuracy with its pitiful performance in Iraq. Congress, and the American people, should be infinitely more cautious this time, even though it was made somewhat clear that the "Experts" viewed Iran as more of a real threat than Iraq in the first place.
What is the threat to the United States of Iran having one or more nuclear weapons? According to the Federation of American Scientists, not much. Even with long range missles from North Korea in a hypothetical "axis of evil" trade, Iran could not reach westward past Greenland from their own territory. Therefore, at the moment there's no good reason to feel that the mainland United States is in any way threatened. The lands that are actually threatened are Europe and, most importantly, Israel.
Israel is scared, and the United States is backing it up 150%. Israel's defense minister stepped out on his own limb, confrontationally stating "If the UN Security Council is incapable of taking action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Israel will have no choice but to defend itself." However, the AP reported that the IAEA has found no evidence "that Teheran had diverted material towards making atomic weapons." Is Israel scared, or are they just pretending to be?
There's another important factor at play, the Iranian oil bourse. Simply put, this is an alternate trading mechanism for oil that is being set up by Iran, using the euro rather than the U.S. dollar as its base currency. Iraq attempted to make the same change, but it was reversed back to the dollar in 2003; is that why the Bush Administration was dead set on war with Iraq from they day they entered office? Iran's potential move is a threat to the economic well-being of the United States as our global neighbors could trade in their dollars for Euros to buy oil, in which case the dollars would flood the U.S. and could bring about deflation and even depression. Others have written about the economic threat, and it should not be taken lightly.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
While the writing in the article can't be criticized, there are so many misperceptions in it as to make intelligent comment impossible. I'd have to rewrite the whole piece.
What are Iranian motivations here? Why should the Iranian regime take actions that expose it to attack from far more powerful nations?
It's not even considered here.
Israel is scared of being attacked by Iran - true. But there is nothing the United States can do about it. The attack would not come from Teheran but south Lebanon, where there is less than two minutes warning time. Hizb Allah is a lap dog of the Islamic Republic. This means that the United States "backing Israel 150%" is just so much hog-wash.
Next is the stale canard of the tail wagging the dog - Israel controlling American policy. If it were only true!
Finally are the misperceptions and total ignorance of the motivating factors in Israeli policy. Zionism has not been a factore in policy here for 20 years or so. There are two competing viwions of what Israel should be, and the power holders largely, but not entiorely reflect one side. I'll outline them, copying from a comment on Desicritics.
There are two visions for the Jews in this country. One is a secular vision of a country that apes Europe and abandons its own culture. The leaders of this vision are the acting prime minister and his cronies, most of the parliament, high court, media and a lot of the business class. For simplicity's sake, let's call this the "Israeli" vision.
Then there is a vision of a religious people, observant of the law, living Judaism as a way of life, the way many Moslems live Islam. In this vision, we have restored to us our historic borders, our Temple, we are actively engaged in gathering in the remnants of the children of Jacob, and teaching Mankind the Seven Laws of Noah (already followed in Islam). For simplicity's sake, let us call this the Jewish vision.
That should do for a beginning, something to be going on with, as the Brits say.
2 - Jim Dunlop
One kickass article JP, THUMBS UP buddy
3 - JP
Ruvy, I sincerely appreciate your input. I still must wonder what American policy toward Iranian nuclear weapons would be if Israel were entirely factored out. No offense intended by that supposition--I hope you recognize my sincere attempts to be respectful in my writing--but I think it would be more of a European problem than a worldwide concern in that case.
I felt Iranian motivation was outside my scope. I believe they have the right to develop nuclear power if that technology is not applied to weaponry; they have a duty to accurately report to IAEA and consequences should follow if we find evidence they are not. It is therefore our duty to prove guilt, rather than assume it. (Note that the question of why Western powers should have the right to nuclear arms, while Arab powers should not, is also outside my scope)
More on Hisb Allah if possible, are you suggesting that the US should be more forceful in confronting them? As for Israel, it seems over 50 years a compromise has not been brokered, so the odds of us solving the dilemna in this discussion are next to none. Still, the land for peace proposal--while denying Jews control of some of the sacred sites in Jerusalem--might be enough to ensure them a land they can call their own. I think this would be somewhere between the "Israeli" and "Jewish" vision you describe.
Finally, do you dispute that the Christian Zionist viewpoint is influential in America? I come from a Catholic background, where such predictions of pending end times are futile. Again, without such influence, I find it hard to believe America would be so hawkish.
4 - JP
Oops. Thanks, Jim!
5 - JP
One other thread I'd like to point out, in terms of the Christian Zionist movement. John Sugg of the Atlanta weekly Creative Loafing wrote in depth about the Reconstructionist movement. They are a similar fundamentalist movement with a focus on claiming America as a "Christian Nation." Dominionists have been known to express the opinion that Katrina's hit on New Orleans was inspired by its sinfulness; I had written about ambivalence toward NOLA in the past, but had not noted the connection.
6 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
JP,
First of all, I'm not suggesting that the US should more forceful with anything. The US is no friend of Israel.
As it stands, there is nothing that the US can do. The 10,000 missiles in the south of Lebanon are like a gun to our heads - a gift of Ehud Barak to our people.
There is no possibility of the US "brokering" a compromise - the Arabs do not respect the secular Israelis who would make it. Shimon Peres can closet himself with his Arab buddies in secret all he wants. In the end, they'll just shoot him if the opportunity arises. The land for peace concept is, ironically, the guarantor of war for the reason I just explained above.
Truth be told, your president regards the Christian right, the Christian Zionists, as a pack of fools. So, given that the president makes your country's foreign policy, the Christian Zionists are wonderful people who have less influence than I wish they had.
As to America being "hawkish," your government is following an aggressive policy overseas, or at least has up til now. If it has anything to do with being the End of Days, it reflects the influence in the next paragraph.
We Jews have an End of Days tradition, which Christians have copied. So you are not quite out of the woods yet. It is our End of Days tradition that dictates much of what I write, and that you see reflected in many of the things I bring to your attention. And it has little to do with your country being "hawkish." It has to do with your country's leaders being seduced into moving their soldiers here... to Israel.
7 - Dave Nalle
the Christian Zionists are wonderful people who have less influence than I wish they had.
The Christian Zionists are pack of egomaniacal headcases and thank god Bush has been able to manage them without giving them undue influence.
Dave
8 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
There is one last point. This is about Iran. The Iranians view themselves as being the rightful rulers of an empire. This would be true no matter who ruled there. So they would eventually pursue nuclear weaponry. But there is another element that has to do with the eschatology of Shia Islam. Shia Islam foresees a messiah called the "Mahdi" who will come and rule, making order out of chaos. The Iranian president is close to messianic circles in his country. For this reason, he takes the risks he does. Go check out my article, "Lo Nora", the Iranian missile threat to Israel.
9 - Dave Nalle
Ruvy, how is the messianic obsession of the Shia any better or worse than that of the Christian Zionists?
Dave
10 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
The messianic tendencies in Shiism are by themselves no more dangerous than those of the Chrisian Zionists and other Protestandts. But the president of Iran believes in them and therefore acts according to his beliefs.
11 - at ruvy
i'm not demeaning you, your replies were quite mature, until they turned to " it's the arabs fault" (more or less)
do i need to remind you , that Yitzhak rabin was on his way to peace with arafat, before Yitzhak was assasinated by an ultra orthodox israeli?
people with glass houses shouldn't toss stones.
that's not to say that some arabs aren't fucked up, but generilizing is just WRONG.
12 - JP
Ruvy, your article is well written and insightful as well. You report Inbar as asserting that "..in the event that the United States could not or would not, for whatever reason, attack Iran, it would be up to Israel to do so." Why isn't it the other way around, as in "unless we can provide solid proof that the world community needs to get involved, ..."?
One problem I see from your perspective is that the burden of proof or threshhold will be higher than it might've been ordinarily, when it comes to getting the US involved--mainly because the US has been in Iraq for 3 years responding to WMD allegations that appear to have been pulled out of thin air. If there's a legitimate threat, and no other option but to get Team America/World Police involved, the case needs to be rock solid--and so far, it's not.
The Madhi tradition appears to fit with my general distaste for fundamentalist end-times thinking in general. I prefer the viewpoint that since we cannot know for sure, we should treat each other with respect until we're "called," since that is what we'll ultimately be judged on. Each of us has the right to our belief system until it infringes on others, no?
13 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
An anonymous fellow writes,
"do i need to remind you , that Yitzhak Rabin was on his way to peace with Arafat, before Yitzhak was assasinated by an ultra Orthodox Israeli?"
When you research the issue, you find out that Yitzhak Rabin was murdered by Yoram Rubin, a Shaba"k guard who is presently helping to guard acting PM Olmert, and that the bullets that Yigal Amir fired at Rabin were blanks.
Yoram Rubin was ultimately in the employ of MK Shimon Peres. Just yesterday, Mr. Peres went to have a secret meeting with Abu Mazen in Amman - something that the Acting Prime Minister has said he'd not do. One of the messages of the meeting may well have been an unspoken one to Olmert from Peres - "I'm the boss here, and my boy Yoram will see to it that I remain the boss."
Now which glass house did you say you lived in? I just found me a number of nasty rocks from a construction site across the street. It's a long time since I lobbed a rock a third of the way round the world...
14 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
JP,
Dr. Inbar spoke from the viewpoint of the Begin-Sadat Institute. Despite the positively scary elements of his message, he was attempting to soothe us. You can bet he will not ever use the phrase "lo norá" in his briefings again.
In terms of the Americans attacking Iran, it is not an issue of "burden of proof." The American president has effectively stolen the war-making powers reserved for your congress and made them his own. I emphasize here that I am not recommending that the Americans attack Iran. If Dr. Inbar is right, we will pay a huge price if they do. And then we will be called on to pay another huge price as the American state department attempts to enforce its "payment" for "protecting" us - withdrawal from Liberated Judea and Samaria.
If it is indeed necessary to attack Iran, I would rather that our own forces did it and face the world's condemnation - on top of missile attacks from South Lebanon.
Were this the case, the condemnation of the world and the missile attacks combined would convince the comfortable secular Israelis who do not share my Jewish vision of this country elucidated in comment #1 that perhaps they are wrong - as they angrily make their way east from their flaming homes, shooting every Arab in sight in Qalqilya, Jenin, Ramallah and other Arab cities and towns. Don't misread what I say here. It is not that I wish death upon these Arabs - I don't. But I can foresee this scenario occurring, and a powerless government in Jerusalem doing absolutely nothing about it.
Finally, with respect to messianic visions, of course we are all free to believe (or not believe) what we wish. But one of us may be right. If so, then the events that one of us foretells from our respective books of prophecy, will come true. What constitutes "being called," reading the signs of prophecy, differs for each of us.
15 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Naturally, I forgot one other aspect that might affect the behavior of the government in Iran. This is the nigh constant student and civil unrest there. Today, there were large and violent demonstrations at several campuses, for reasons that are unclear. HQ's of the Religious police were attacked by students. The latest report I got was that the police were attacking back and that scores of kids had been wounded.
What I'm getting at is that the government sits uneasily on its power base, and this in addition to all the other elements I listed - the desire to be an empire, the messianic impulses of its president, may well be influencing the government's behavior as well.
16 - Israeli
Ruvy, i respect your comments fully, and belive u have much truth in your words, but i have to respectfully disagree with the 'bullcrap' that yitzhak rabin was killed by anyone but Yigal amir.
I am a secular jew who still has strong jewish beliefs, i am proud to be a jew, and practice being a jew, but the commant which u stated is just a theory which the ultra orthodox jews present in a bid to clear the name of one of their own and tryand lay the blame on some one else.
Every society does the same thing at a time of great distress, 9/11, how many people found diffrent theories, bush planning the attack, israelis planning the attack, BLOOMING aliens planning the attack.
17 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Israeli
Let's lay out an ugly fact or two. I commit a sin here, and I'll be judged for it. May G-d forgive me.
Rumor has it that Yigal Amir was a child molester whose "predilections" were noticed by the Shaba"k. I say rumor, because unlike everything else I say here, it cannot be substantitiated. Amir was told by the Shaba"k that he could do jail time as a child molester or as a murderer.
Any intelligent individual, faced with this choice, would choose to do jail time as a murderer. Other prisoners are often fathers too, and the child molester is the lowest of the low. Now you tell me? Does this make observant Jews look good?
Result? Amir was given a gun with empty bullets, and when Rabin left the election rally that night, one of his guards pulled away, giving Amir a clear shot, and Amir fired two blanks at Rabin's back. How do I know this? I saw a film produced by Israel News and obtained that showed just this. And someone shouted "they're blanks" in Hebrew.
Now let's ask some questions.
Why did Rabin not get carried to a MaDA ambulance instead of getting up and getting into his car, followed by Yoram Rubin, a Shaba"k agent?
Why was Leah Rabin kept from her husband in the car?
Why did a five minute trip from the Kikar Malkhei Yisrael to Ichilov Hospital take 20 minutes?
Why did a man admitted with two bullet wounds die from three?
These are just as few of the questions that led a secular Jew, Barry Chamish, to figure out that it was not Amir who killed Rabin.
Read "Mi Ratzáhh et Yitzhak Rábin?" (Who Killed Yitzhak Rabin?) by Barry Chamish.
18 - Christopher Rose
Ruvy, I'm trying to follow this theory of yours in detail and wondered if you could fill in a few blanks.
"Rumor has it that Yigal Amir was a child molester whose "predilections" were noticed by the Shaba"k. I say rumor, because unlike everything else I say here, it cannot be substantitiated. Amir was told by the Shaba"k that he could do jail time as a child molester or as a murderer."
This appears to suggest that the Israeli Secret Service gets involved in criminal cases, which is news to me. As is the "fact" that you can apparently choose what you get arrested for in Israel.
Then, if he was an arrested criminal, why would anybody give him a gun, loaded with blanks or otherwise?
Why then, at the shooting, would someone suddenly shout "they're blanks" and how would they know?
The delays to Mr Rabin's treatment could have been engineered by extremist Jews just as easily as by anybody else, could they not?
I don't have the time or inclination to read Mr Chamish book so please sum it up for us so we can try to follow this somewhat convoluted theory. Thanks.
19 - Christopher Rose
Oh yeah, what sin did you just commit?
20 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Spreading a rumor that could reduce (about Yigal Amir) a man's honor in the eyes of his fellows.
21 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Chris,
A big picture summary to all this is very tricky. The proof is in the details.
So, if this seems less than satisfactory, you know why.
First, the Shaba"k here has broad ranging legal powers - and quite a few " addiitional" powers. If you need to force someone to do something, you research his background, find a weakness to latch on to, and squeeze. That is what is rumored to have happened with Yigal Amir. The Shaba"k gathered sufficient evidence on Amir.
Amir's "choice" was to be tortured in jail (after conviction) by fellow prisoners as a convicted child rapist - or to sit in jail as a murderer. In order to avoid sitting in jail as a rapist, Amir had to agree to be a murderer. He had yet to be arrested or convicted of anything when the Rabin killing took place.
Second, you can hear the difference between a blank and a real bullet, and enough Israelis are veteran enough to know the difference. There was also the effect on the target. He was not bleeding at first. There was no blood on the ground where Rabin fell from Amir's bullets.
Finally, the driver of Rabin's vehicle was a government employee, a secular Jew, not a religious one. He is not known to have had 'extremist" views.
22 - Christopher Rose
Obvious question: If this Yigal Amir fired blanks, why did Rabin go down?
23 - Shay
Christopher, what you're doing is a futile attempt to force some reason into an extremist (in this case - Ruvy). This ruvy - whoever he is - is probably one of very few extremists that believe that the laws of god are ABOVE the laws of the country, and anyone who's a believer cannot be guilty in court of law, unless its the law of god. Yigal Amir IS the convicted killer of Rabin, and i (and the huge majority of Israelis) believe and know its true, and that should be enough. Rabin was NOT killed by any of his security guards, nor by aliens. Ruvy and his conspiracies can go on and think whatever he wants - we're still a democracy here, so he wont be locked up just for thinking like this, so i'd just like to wrap it up and say once again, it HAS BEEN PROOVEN (as KNOWN FOR A FACT) beyond any doubt, that Yigal Amir is the murderer of Itzhak Rabin, and anything else said by anyone here in Israel, is getting the same reaction as if he said "I was abducted by a five-headed alien horses in a yellow school bus"...
Just wanted to make sure my point is clear :)
24 - Christopher Rose
Ruvy is a friend of mine, Shay.
I don't agree with his views or the entire underlying storyline that unites the judaeo-christiano-islamo-deist creation myth but some of his ideas are actually very interesting.
Not these ones mind, but we are enjoying a generally positive dialogue. And he's not hiding in anonymity but standing in plain sight which deserves a lot of respect given the context he lives in.
Finally, his views may be extremist but that's just a relative statement given the limited range of views on offer in the region...
25 - Ahmad Hashem
I think Israel involved itself into it.
What made Jews choose this very special spot to settle their home in the middle of all these people who hate them as people not as governments. The world is large enough for these few millions of jews.
I think Israel is paying the price of its decision.
Israel loves USA and USA loves Israel, then please make it any where else where you can't find any hates.
Israel planted hate and It is harvesting its doings.
What will make Israel satisfied is destroying all its neighbours and make it peace without people.
I hate Israel 'cause It is considering its people unique, higher level than others.
For rational people, God created us similar in chances, different in shape only in outer layer.