There also continue to be problems in the Venezuelan economy. People do not feel that they are sharing fairly in the success of the country's oil industry, contrary to Chavez' promises. Over the past 10 years they have suffered with a cumulative inflation rate of 800%. Unemployment, which had been declining, rose sharply during the first half of 2008, after the nationalization of oil industry holdings and changes in government policy which created a hostile business environment. General Motors' Venezuelan auto assembly plant has been closed for two months and GM is considering not reopening it because it has become too difficult to do business in Venezuela, between the pressures of high taxation, regulation hostile to foreign businesses and governmental corruption.
In the face of the very real possibility of losing even more popular support in the upcoming regional elections and suffering the same kind of embarrassment he did in the 2007 referendum, Chavez has developed a radical election strategy. It is based around directing popular anger at foreigners, businessmen and especially the United States, as he has done in previous elections, but now with the added twist of expanded efforts to precipitate some sort of actual regional crisis to force the US to intervene, in order to make his paranoid accusations of assassination attempts and coups seem legitimate. Increased funding of FARC operations in Colombia, providing massive military and financial aid to the Morales regime in Bolivia, and giving the Russians a place to show a symbolic military presence in the Western Hemisphere to balance the US missile defense system deployment in Poland, all figure into an effort to raise tensions and force a reaction. The expulsion of the US ambassador is just the latest symbolic gesture aimed at aggravating the Americans into doing something he can point to as a justification for increased crackdowns and perhaps negating the results of the upcoming election.
Chavez clearly believes that if he can provoke the United States sufficiently, then the Bush administration might abandon its strategy of just ignoring Chavez while trying to stabilize neighboring countries like Colombia and Bolivia. The problem is that indirect US efforts in Bolivia and Colombia have been surprisingly successful, and despite all of the Russian arms and oil money which Chavez has poured into those countries, FARC is increasingly ineffective and the Morales regime may be forced to make an accommodation with rebellious local governments. That being the case, aside from the Russian military presence, Chavez doesn't hold a lot of cards when it comes to provoking the United States. Russia doesn't want a direct conflict with the US and, having made its point, is pulling its visiting planes and warships out of the area, . That leaves Chavez impotently waving his fist in front of crowds of hireling loyalists and thugs, screaming about plots which clearly don't exist and threats which never materialize.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - MARLOWE
For once Dave we agree... Great article. Thanks...
Marlowe
2 - Thomas Carden
Good article, but a little optimistic. Chavez has already enacted most of the legislation that was defeated. His next step will be to simply stop holding elections, or when they start going against him, have them ruled invalid because of Yankee interference. To many billions are at stake for his cronies to let him leave power.
3 - junior
wow Dave, you defenetly got everything figured out i guess your knowledge in latin america are that great....well i think you watch too much CNN.
1- that cocaine-socialist. his name is Evo Morales and he was elected in a Democratic way. HE was elected by the poor people of Bolivia the Indians of the region. plus this is something that you dont hear in cnn.
2-President Hugo Chavez . you think he is crazy man. but before hugo chavez US comany used buy a ton of steel for 50cents, and the barrel of oil was 1 dollar.. does this sounds fair. plus he helped a lot of country in latin america including cuba , haity and so on...give them oil and they can repay with goods or food raice, bean.
he created mercasur wich is a bank for the poor nations in the continent given them a alternative from the US Goverment that interest rate are in the clouds.
3- Since 1824- 1994 the Us had made 73 invasion to latin america. and assingin Dictators like Rafael Trujillo. that kill Hundreds of people. Kennedy onces said...Trujillo is a Tyran, but at least is our tyran. So chavez has all the right to be Alarmed to a possible US invasion.
please excuse the gramar. junior
4 - cuervodeluna
I believe, given the hypterically Chicken Little content and tone of this rant that a more apt title would be Nalle's Last Meltdown.
Still posting other folks' opinions as evidence, Dave.
No wonder you could never get a real journalist job. Even at a rag like the Miami Herald.
Show us some evidence for your shrieking and blathering. You've been writing the same drivel for years and Chavez just gets stronger and you just get more shriveled and shrill.
better luck next lifetime.
5 - Christopher Rose
I should have known that Chavez would lure you out, mooncuerva. (Apologies to all English and Spanish speakers for mangling both languages.)
6 - Dave Nalle
wow Dave, you defenetly got everything figured out i guess your knowledge in latin america are that great....well i think you watch too much CNN.
If you follow the links in the article, most of them are to latin american sites, most of them inside Venezuela and many of them pro-Chavez.
1- that cocaine-socialist. his name is Evo Morales and he was elected in a Democratic way. HE was elected by the poor people of Bolivia the Indians of the region. plus this is something that you dont hear in cnn.
He was the chief representative of the coca growers union and was elected based on support from the cocaine cartels for whom the poor people of Bolivia work.
2-President Hugo Chavez . you think he is crazy man.
No, I think he is an egotist who is increasingly out of control.
but before hugo chavez US comany used buy a ton of steel for 50cents, and the barrel of oil was 1 dollar.. does this sounds fair.
No, it sounds made up, or else like really weak propaganda.
plus he helped a lot of country in latin america including cuba , haity and so on...give them oil and they can repay with goods or food raice, bean.
And by doing so he has propped up incredibly repressive governments which might have fallen without hsi financial support.
he created mercasur wich is a bank for the poor nations in the continent given them a alternative from the US Goverment that interest rate are in the clouds.
US aid programs to south and central america usually provide grants which don't even require repayment. A small portion of US aid is in the form of loans and loan guarantees usually at little or no interest, and often completely forgiven if certain conditions are met. No US government aid programs charge interest at anything near a market rate.
Dave
7 - Matthew T. Sussman
If Ron Paul ever has brunch with Hugo Chavez, Dave will hit a personal word count record.
8 - Dave Nalle
Still posting other folks' opinions as evidence, Dave.
There are 13 links in the article. Most are to sources from Venezuela. In instances where we are discussing public reaction to Chavez' actions the opinions of people in Venezuela ARE evidence. Other links are purely factual, but it's unclear that you really know what facts are.
Dave
9 - joe
ugh...This doesn't classify as journalism, does it? You consider Venezuelan news media a reliable source?
Good luck getting a real reporting job.
10 - cuervodeluna
Well 'ole Dave (and getting older as Chavez gets younger), I looked for EVIDENCE in your link about misuse of public funds, and found an OPINION piece.
It only takes one of those gambits to destroy a REAL journalist's credibility forever.
And you, it goes without saying, are destroyed forever.
Lies are always lies--no matter who tells them and how many clones he invents to say they agree with his OPINION.
Busted again, Dave.
11 - cuervodeluna
Rosebud: Thanks for the hearty welcome.
12 - Christopher Rose
I just hope your visit will be marked by a little respect for the house style, that way it will last longer...
13 - cuervodeluna
Rosebud:
My visits will last as long as I choose.
One of the many advantages of using internet cafes all around the planet.
Thanks, again, for the welcoming posture.
14 - Christopher Rose
As I have stated before, you are welcome here so long as the focus is on the message not the messenger.
15 - cuervodeluna
Apparently you have never heard of that 60s prophet, Marshall McLuhan.
His statement, "The medium is the message", was really quite famous.
And it is particaularly applicable to this site.
I suggest that you stop baiting me and condescending and get on with your life.
16 - junior
sorry dave. you sound like you are a smart person, but to tell you the truth . i think this work is to "sensacionalista" this spanish for putting your own sentiments and views to exagerate. i can tell you that i been in venezuela,Dominican Republic,El salvador,Haiti.
i know what works and what dont. that money that goverment give is not for the poor people is for the goverment. poor people dont see it... they see raw material like GAs or Food or work on a decent rate. is not hard being here and looking down on latin america ("the US Backyard" like bush calls it.)this rebels this lefty , this communist , this and that. i dont think thats right. is a popular feeling of dependecy to the US, is that notion that the USA sells, of being the ultimate destination where all you dreams come true. then they come in the masses to get deported. latin america is bound to change we will change you like it or not we would come out of being third world country like the US clasified us. lol third world thats the most racist thing i ever heard and i hear a lot... junior.... once again excuse my gramar .. im from the third world.
17 - cuervodeluna
Junior,
No need to be concerned about your grammar.
There's plenty of nonsense and lies floating around the internet--including on this site, blogcritics--written in acceptable English grammar and syntax but not worth anything.
Gringos tend to be allergic to reality.
18 - Dave Nalle
that money that goverment give is not for the poor people is for the goverment. poor people dont see it... they see raw material like GAs or Food or work on a decent rate
If that were true then it would be somewhat justifiable. The problem is that despite promises, Chavez is no longer passing on the profits to the people.
. is not hard being here and looking down on latin america ("the US Backyard" like bush calls it.)this rebels this lefty , this communist , this and that. i dont think thats right.
To be entirely frank, most people in the US don't think about Latin America beyond Mexico at all, and the Bush administration is taking a very laid back and indirect approach to dealing with the region. Obviously they have other more pressing concerns.
is a popular feeling of dependecy to the US, is that notion that the USA sells, of being the ultimate destination where all you dreams come true. then they come in the masses to get deported.
Here in the US the constant complaint is that they are NOT being deported. In fact that you can't get them deported if you try. You can call ICE and point out illegals to them and nothing is done about it.
latin america is bound to change we will change you like it or not we would come out of being third world country like the US clasified us.
I agree and I think it's a very good thing. I think that trade with the US is one of the things which will bring that change about. It is only through raising up the economies of latin America that we can make sure that chaos in that region is discouraged and provide an incentive for people to stay and work and live in their own countries and not come here.
Dave
19 - cuervodeluna
Perhaps Dave would like to condescend to fleshing out his libelous claims with a few facts that provide EVIDENCE for them.
He could start by SHOWING us (not linking us to some obscure opposition pol's OPINION, as opinions do NOT become evidence just because Dave says they do)evidence for the people of Venezuela NO LONGER receiving profits from petroleum sales.
I suggest that Dave present the EVIDENCE in the form of a chart or narrative that indicates the amount of petroleum profits being passed on to the people of Venezuela from 1999 through the second quarter of 2008.
That chart or narrative needs to be linked to REAL FIGURES from REAL SOURCES--again, not someone's OPINION.
When Dave gets through providing that, the US presidential election will have passed and there will be a new set of complaints to write about.
So, somwething useful will have been done.
And Mr. Nalle will have taken his first step towards learning that hypotheses (journalistic, scientific or others) are only as credible as the facts and information produced to either prove or disprove them.
20 - Dave Nalle
As I'm sure you know perfectly well, Venezuela goes to great lengths to keep the assignment and even the amount of its oil revenues secret from its own people and international observers. So your request for a chart of how petroleum profits were used is a straw man, because you know perfectly well that no such chart exists.
What can be observed is where they spend money, and a great deal of their oil income is going into their various international subsidy programs, bribery of foreign leaders and the pockets of Chavez cronies. Much of this is done through the PDVSA which administers oil revenues and does it largely in secret.
I realize that you have a history of categorically rejecting any sources which disagree with you, no matter how legitimate, but nonetheless - or mainly for the interest of those who still have open minds - I direct you to this report from the CFR which addresses the issue of oil revenues from Venezuela.
In addition, there is an informative article in Foreign Affairs from this Spring which goes into considerable detail on the increasing inequality in wealth between the general population of Venezuela and the government-connected elite. The conclusion of the article is that despite all of his promises, Chavez has done no more for the poor in Venezuela than prior regimes did, and it points out that measures of living conditions suggest that conditions are worse in areas of health and services than they have been, including an increase in GINI during Chavez' time in office. The article attributes (as I do in my article) Chavez' reversals in the constitutional referendum to general dissatisfaction in the population. Polls show that 50% of the Venezuelan population believes that poverty has increased under Chavez.
In the Foreign Affairs article Francisco Rodriguez, who was Venezuela's chief economist from 2000 to 2004, draws conclusions working from his direct experiences with Chavez and research inside Venezuela which are basically the same as I have drawn working from journalistic sources, NGOs and accounts from people inside Venezuela. He concludes:
I'm sure you'll find some reason to reject Rodriguez and his first-hand research and inside information, but the facts are what they are. My sources may not be as good as his, and I may be more naturally suspicious of Chavez, but he and I both come up with the same conclusions that anyone who looks at the situation in Venezuela reaches, that the problems there are getting worse and that the Chavez regime is not sustainable.
Perhaps you'll eventually learn that statements are not 'libelous' if they are true. Real journalists know this. Those whose main interest is in silencing the truth may forget how libel works when it makes a convenient threat.
Dave
21 - cuervodeluna
Dave, Dave, Dave:
Still throwing words at the wall and hoping enough of them will stick to make it look like you know what you are talking about.
1. You claimed that oil profits were no longer being passed to the people of Venezuela--and then refused to follow my suggested way to document your assetrion, claiming secrecy on the part of the Venezuelan government--which is much more bogus than the use of a straw man, as it simply is not true--PDVSA provides annual AUDITED financial statements (don't even try to go there with Enron or some other failed US company and its audits as you will just dig yourself deeper).
So, yes, you could have tried to construct a narrative of comparison, since your own source did thaT, and I quote:
"According to International Oil Daily, an energy trade publication, PDVSA spent $14.4 billion on social programs in 2007 (as compared to $6.9 billion in 2005). These programs include projects such as medical clinics providing free health care, discounted food and household goods centers in poor neighborhoods, indigenous land-titling, job creation programs outside of the oil business, and university and education programs."
Admittedly, your source--with a strong anti-Chavez bias--then went on to speculate that maybe it wasn't true--but that's OPINION and PROPAGANDA,
Nalle.
Since your claim was that Chavez is no longer passing any oil profits to the people, your own source CONTRADICTS you by indicating that in 2007 more than TWICE the 2005 amount was allocated to social programs.
2. You claim that I have a habit of dismissing any information that I don't agree with. It would appear that YOU, in fact, don't even bother to READ information in your OWN sources that you don't agree with.
3. I am not going to bother with the rest of your rant, as what you posted in response to my request for evidence gave evidence that completely contradicted your assertion.
That is beyond sloppy journalism, Nalle. And this is not the first time--as you have a history of just grabbing sources out of the air of internet and hoping that no one will bother to check whether they support or do not support your claims. You are consistent, I will say that for you.
But then Ralph Waldo Emerson had something to say about a foolish consistency being the hobgoblin of small minds--or something like that.
4. You are going to have to do a WHOLE lot better than your last post to rate any credibility at all--even on THIS site. This professor gives you an F.
22 - miriam
Your article is well researched, and welcome news if true. Unfortunately, guys like Chavez don't go gently into that good night....Kicking and screaming is more like it.
Bad cess to him.
23 - Franco
Dave, concerning the [Edited] lies for Chavez. Have a little faith. The majority of Venezuelans see right though Chavez [Edited].
What is disheartening for the Venezuelan's is that Chavez has enacted most of the laws that the majority of the people voted down in the referendum. So your article is timely as things are not well there.
But as post #2 by Thomas Carden points out.
"Good article, but a little optimistic. Chavez has already enacted most of the legislation that was defeated. His next step will be to simply stop holding elections, or when they start going against him, have them ruled invalid because of Yankee interference. To many billions are at stake for his cronies to let him leave power."
However Chavez pulls it off, he is going to pull it off and he will not let anyone in the country even critizs him about any of it. This just in!
If [Edited] truly cared about the people's votes in Venezuela she would be addressing Chavez canceling them out by decree, and she would be addressing Human Rights Watch (a big critic of the US by the way) as well. [Personal attack deleted by Comments Editor].
24 - Dave Nalle
Grim news, Franco. But hardly unexpected. HRW has been on top of Chavez' civil rights abuses for a couple of years. They and Reporters Without Borders have been consistent in holding him accountable for abuses.
And read the article, cuervodeluna. I didn't say Chavez was taking all the money from the people, just that he wasn't fulfilling his promises and was taking a lot of the money from them. Yes, he spent $14 billion on infrastructure. That would be a fraction of what's needed and given yearly oil revenues well over $100 billion, you've got to wonder where the rest of the money is going.
As usual, cuervodeluna, the facts speak for themselves and they aren't on your side no matter how much you wail and gnash your teeth.
Dave
25 - Cannonshop
You know Dave, if I couldn't find any other reason to support opening every oil reserve in North America that's on U.S. territory, Crazy Chavez is a pretty good one. Just let him sit there and turn his country into a paranoid hell-hole. I only wonder how long before the PRC has to send troops to 'stabilize' when one of Chavez's close confidantes finally gets tired of table scraps and ices him for the profits.