We are fourteen and a half months away from the presidential election, but the question needs to be asked: Is Obama already a lame duck? Gallup has a poll out today (based on a three day rolling average) that has President Obama's job approval at 38 percent. His disapproval is at 54 percent. That is, as we political junkies like to say in our own opaque jargon, "not good."
To put that into perspective, Obama was at 53 percent approval and 39 percent disapproval less than three months ago. That's quite a steep decline: He's lost 15 percent of the American public in about the same amount of time it takes me to finally do my next load of laundry. This is Dubya, circa 2006, territory we're talking about here.
Rasmussen surveys likely voters instead of all adults. The results of his most recent poll show 45 percent of likely voters strongly disapproving of the way President Obama is performing his role as president. Just 19 percent strongly approve. If you include likely voters who somewhat approve, his approval number rises to 44 percent. But those who at least somewhat disapprove rises to 56 percent. That's minus 12. Again, "not good."
But, you may ask, how does he compare head-to-head against likely GOP challengers? Uh, not very well, for an incumbent president. According to a recent Gallup poll of registered voters, Obama loses to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by two points, is in a dead heat with current Texas Governor Rick Perry, narrowly defeats current Congressman Ron Paul by two points, and also barely defeats current Congresswoman Michele Bachmann by four points. So, two sitting members of the House of Representatives, both of whom are regularly ridiculed in the establishment media as being "fringe" or "extremist," are within striking distance of a sitting president. Wow.
President Obama does, however, destroy former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin by 17 points according to a recent survey of likely voters by Rasmussen Reports. (Sarah, please don't run. Please. Pretty please with caribou on top?)
So. Is there any chance President Obama could turn his poll numbers around? Sure. But he'd need some very good economic news for that to happen, and my Magic 8 Ball is saying, "outlook not so good." Hmmm. So what if President Obama pulls an LBJ, and just declines to run again? Well, I find this to be a rather unlikely possibility. But if it actually happened? Hillary vs. Mitt in 2012?
Stranger things have happened...
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - roger nowosielski
I'd love to see that race.
2 - roger nowosielski
Pretty please ...
Mr. Wolf's famous line.
3 - RJ
Roger,
You mean Obama vs. Palin? Or Mitt vs. Hillary?
4 - roger nowosielski
The latter of course.
5 - handyguy
Roger, if anything, Mrs. Clinton is further to the right on foreign policy -- more of a hawk -- than Obama. You'd be complaining about her too.
6 - roger nowosielski
Perhaps. But I can't prejudge her would-be stance on the basis of her performance as Secretary of State.
7 - handyguy
Jon Stewart's guess at Obama's revised campaign slogan:
Instead of "Yes We Can" --
"I Thought We Could, But the Other Guys are Assholes"
8 - Tommy Mack
A little more analysis might help. Here is the link you can use to make comparisons from the source.
Tommy
9 - Avenger
The new Ron Paul video from Kaphen DePriest.
10 - Arch Conservative
Anyone who believes historical trends to have any credence in predicting whether or not an incumbent president will be reelected would have to admit that if the unemployment situation doesn't improve dramatically by next summer Obama is finished.
As to who the GOP nominee is at this point....well that is anyone's guess.
Perry and Romney are just two more run of the mill big government, globalist new world order neocons. Bachmann recently guaranteed that if elected she will ensure gas does not go above two dollars a gallon...right after she turns a pitcher of water into wine at her first White House press conference.
Palin is still getting way to much attention given the fact that she has not declared and is not likely to run.
Huntsman's campaign is a complete joke as are the campaigns of Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Chester Copperpot.
So who does that leave? You guessed it. The man everyone loves to ridicule for actually having principles and acting on those principles. Ron Paul.
Paul is polling well in my home state of NH and may very well surprise if not shock some people in our primary. I'm hoping that he will win it. A win for Paul is not entirely unreasonable despite what some would have the American people believe. Paul's libertarian, non-interventionist message plays well in NH. He may indeed not win the NH GOP primary but I don't see him doing any worse than third behind Perry and Romney. As far as I'm concerned Bachmann is a nonstarter in NH.
The NH primary performance of Paul will certainly beg the question as to whether he is electable. I say if he wins or comes in 2nd in NH he will definitely be taken seriously and viewed as electable on a national scale.
We have just had a terrible Republican administration followed up by an even worse Democrat administration. We've witnessed both parties in Congress playing gotcha politics, putting aside the good of the nation in favor of the good of the party. Now is the perfect time for a man like Paul to come along. Now is the time for someone who actually cares about the nation and would at the very least attempt to implement policy that would benefit all Americans.
If Paul were to win the GOP nomination there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he would annihilate Obama in the general election. The question remains..can he win the GOP nomination. Or will we be stuck with George W. Obama part three come 2012.
11 - Ban Michael Vick
It comes down to obama or Ron Paul.
12 - Arch Conservative
The mainstream media and the establishment would rather have anyone other than Ron Paul. Apathy and ignorance are their lifeblood. Ron Paul is the antidote.
13 - RJ
7:
Jon Stewart? Blaming Republicans for Obama's failures and calling them names?
You don't say.
14 - Cindy
Stephen Colbert said it best: "Having Obama for President is like smoking pot. Its all cool and interesting in the beginning but at the end of the day you realize you didn't get anything done."
15 - Jordan Richardson
Yeah, except he did get something done.
16 - Dr Dreadful
Jon Stewart? Blaming Republicans for Obama's failures and calling them names?
No, that's not Stewart, that's Stewart's caricature of an Obama campaign slogan.
Your nuance detector needs new batteries, RJ.
17 - handyguy
Yes, Stewart may be a liberal, but his humor cuts both ways.
Although the best thing he has done recently was to lacerate conservative commentators for being blatantly anti-poor. It was brilliantly funny and devastating. "These people don't seem so badly off -- 25% of them have air conditioning! 99% have refrigerators!" [actual Fox News 'journalism' at work]
18 - handyguy
Stephen Colbert is also very funny, but keep in mind that everything he says on his show is said "in character" with a big dose of irony: he plays an absurd but Fox-like conservative commentator.
The actual quote is "Donating to Obama is like smoking pot. Everything feels new at first, then you realize you haven't gotten anything done."
Mr. Colbert of course now has his own SuperPAC, which he used to promote "Rick Parry" to Ames, Iowa straw poll voters. Great stuff.
19 - Baronius
Yeah, Stewart cuts both ways. He makes fun of conservatives for being conservative, and makes fun of liberals for not being consistently liberal enough.
20 - handyguy
I think that gives a fairly clear indication of just how poorly you comprehend what he does -- if indeed you watch him enough to have an informed opinion.
I'd say he makes fun of absurd people for saying ridiculous things. There just happens to be a bumper crop of eccentrics and loudmouths on the right at the moment. His perspective is definitely from the left -- but his primary goal is laughter, which he gets by pointing out and mocking silliness in public figures -- including CNN reporters and Pres. Obama as well as Fox and Michele Bachmann. It is a time honored tradition.
21 - RJ
19:
Thank you.
22 - David Paladino
Maybe once in a lifetime will a person experience what we are! When has there ever been such a spontaneous and enthusiastic response by the everyday hard-working people of America to one person. She is not an elitist. She is not arrogant, proud, condescending, typical politician which are a dime a dozen. She is one of us! We are in the midst of a historical event. A political revival! The hard-working everyday people are waking up. Were watching our beloved nation crumble at our feet because of self-centered, self seeking, self loving politicians. Turn your plows into swords, (spiritually speaking) grab your helmet and your shield. Let us rise up and go forth. I hear the sound of a mighty army marching as to war. Sarah Palin will not have to do the typical down and dirty political ploys! This is Destiny! We are at a cross road! America must decide! Choose you today the good or the evil? Righteousness or wickedness? Freedom as our forefathers experienced it, or slavery as socialism and communism would have it. Self-governance or government control? What will it be? Let us rise up in the name of freedom and go forth! Sarah Palin is not the answer, she is simply the instrument that God is using to give us a choice. Choose Well, it may be our last choice!
23 - handyguy
Well, in context, the mock 'campaign slogan' definitely didn't come across as pro-Obama. It followed a series of clips of the president's recent bus tour speeches, highlighting the 'inspirational' message the president carried: in each case, Obama slammed the GOP. That's when Stewart inferred the new campaign slogan.
Anyhow, do watch the clips of clueless Fox anchors reciting factoids to 'prove' how 'well off' the 'so-called' poor are as they get a ‘free ride.’ It is masterful.
World of Class Warfare
24 - Clavos
I didn't have air conditioning in my (or my parents') homes here in Florida until I was well into my twenties. It's nice to have, but not really necessary.
25 - Baronius
In Florida?