We are fourteen and a half months away from the presidential election, but the question needs to be asked: Is Obama already a lame duck? Gallup has a poll out today (based on a three day rolling average) that has President Obama's job approval at 38 percent. His disapproval is at 54 percent. That is, as we political junkies like to say in our own opaque jargon, "not good."
To put that into perspective, Obama was at 53 percent approval and 39 percent disapproval less than three months ago. That's quite a steep decline: He's lost 15 percent of the American public in about the same amount of time it takes me to finally do my next load of laundry. This is Dubya, circa 2006, territory we're talking about here.
Rasmussen surveys likely voters instead of all adults. The results of his most recent poll show 45 percent of likely voters strongly disapproving of the way President Obama is performing his role as president. Just 19 percent strongly approve. If you include likely voters who somewhat approve, his approval number rises to 44 percent. But those who at least somewhat disapprove rises to 56 percent. That's minus 12. Again, "not good."
But, you may ask, how does he compare head-to-head against likely GOP challengers? Uh, not very well, for an incumbent president. According to a recent Gallup poll of registered voters, Obama loses to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by two points, is in a dead heat with current Texas Governor Rick Perry, narrowly defeats current Congressman Ron Paul by two points, and also barely defeats current Congresswoman Michele Bachmann by four points. So, two sitting members of the House of Representatives, both of whom are regularly ridiculed in the establishment media as being "fringe" or "extremist," are within striking distance of a sitting president. Wow.
President Obama does, however, destroy former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin by 17 points according to a recent survey of likely voters by Rasmussen Reports. (Sarah, please don't run. Please. Pretty please with caribou on top?)
So. Is there any chance President Obama could turn his poll numbers around? Sure. But he'd need some very good economic news for that to happen, and my Magic 8 Ball is saying, "outlook not so good." Hmmm. So what if President Obama pulls an LBJ, and just declines to run again? Well, I find this to be a rather unlikely possibility. But if it actually happened? Hillary vs. Mitt in 2012?
Stranger things have happened...