Is North Korea about to crack?

This past June the Goethe Institute opened in Pyongyang.

Significant?

I'd say so: it's the very first foreign cultural center in North Korea.

It offers over 8,000 books, CDs, videos, and German newspapers and magazines - all freely available to any North Korean.

Sure, you could argue that there are probably about seven North Koreans not connected with the government who understand German, but that's not the point.

It's that the Institute exists.

Combine that bit of news with the recent reports filtering out of the locked-down country that pictures of

Kim Jong Il, North Korea's leader, have been coming down from walls all over the country, for no apparent reason, without being returned to their places, and one doesn't have to be under deep cover to realize something is indeed afoot.

You can bet the South is cautiously optimistic: that's because, having watched the fall of the Berlin Wall lead to West Germany's still-struggling efforts to incorporate the East, South Korea wants no part of a sudden collapse of the barriers, both economic and political, between the two countries.

Seoul would much prefer that the North Korean army slowly take the country back from its near-war footing to a more conciliatory, gradual thaw.

But then, I said the CIA and the Pentagon would throw the election to Kerry, so what do I know?

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  • 1 - Harry Forbes

    Nov 26, 2004 at 10:36 pm

    I would guess that the pictures of The Dear Leader coming down say more than the existence of a German Institute. Walking through the doors of the Goethe Institute is for a North Korean citizen slave likely the shortest route into the Gulag.

    But why would Kin Jong Il's picture's be coming down? Who knows?

  • 2 - RJ

    Nov 27, 2004 at 12:09 am

    I am going to try to be cautiously optimistic about North Korea. But I honestly cannot see that regime falling without massive bloodshed.

  • 3 - Thomas

    Nov 25, 2006 at 4:05 pm

    "Sure, you could argue that there are probably about seven North Koreans not connected with the government who understand German"

    Actually, millions of them speak German. North Koreans share a strong affinity towards Germany; it has even been said they consider Germans their "chosen relatives". And besides, German is among the very largest major world languages after all.

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