The following article presents information offered to the House Government Reform Committee on National Security on Friday, September 15. The title of the hearing was 'What Are the Consequences of Leaving Iraq?' and was aired on C-Span. A summary of this hearing is recalled by this writer below. The Panel of witnesses were expert in the study of Iraq and its people with decades of experience focusing on Iraq. See end of article for participants.
Rep. Christopher Shays (R) who chaired these hearings asked Thomas Friedman's question on C-Span's Washington Journal, "Are we baby-sitting a civil war in Iraq?" It is a most pertinent question in light of the hearing discussed below.
Before looking forward to a viable Iraqi government capable or standing on its own, it is vital we look straight at the state of Iraq at the present time. The Kurds are in the best seat in Iraq. Residing in the North of Iraq, they have established their own prime minister, parliament, security forces, laws, and defense zones. For all intents and purposes, the Kurds have an independent state of their own, and their region is prodominantly marked by peaceful relations and the absence of hostilities.
Clearly however, the Kurds do not want the break up of Iraq. They have a vested interest in Iraq remaining a whole state. Part of that interest rests in the fact that the potential oil largesse of Iraq may lie outside their territorial areas. Under the current law, Kurds are entitled to a representative share of Iraq's oil revenues. Another vested interest is in defense. Were Iraq to partition into 3 separate states, the Kurds affinity for modern society and friendship with Western nations could make them a target of theistic fundamentalist Shia and Sunni states which would surround them.
Finally, should the Kurds become an independent nation, they would be overrun by Kurd immigration which would create hostilities with neighboring nations from which other Kurds would attempt to emigrate, eroding those other state's population, tax and worker base, causing conflict with the Iraqi Kurd government. The Kurds are active members in the new Iraqi government and are working diligently to try to hold Iraq together. It is in their self-professed interest to do so.
Some Southern regions of Iraq are contain al-Queda, and separatist Sunni and Shia factions, the Shia being predominant in number. Marriages between Sunni and Shiite men and women are being torn apart by the sectarian war underway between Sunnis and Shiites. This conflict between Sunni and Shia has been growing since just after the invasion, but most rapidly in the last year. Last year at this time their were approximately 400 sectarian incidents of violence per month. Today it is over 800. The worst of it is located in Baghdad where 7 million Sunnis and Shias have divided the city into East and West camps, and the migration to those camps is growing everyday. But this violence is also spreading East, West, and South of Baghdad, as news of the civil conflict increases.
Article comments