Iran has announced its intention to create an oil bourse (market) denominated in euros on its soil. The U.S. will likely not permit its creation if it can prevent it. This appears to be a last desperate effort on the part of the Iranian leadership to create an alternative to Anglo-American financial power in order to become the center of an anti-U.S. resistance worldwide and avoid having to stop their WMD program.
This is a far greater threat to our stability than anything anyone else has come up with. It appears that rumors of a secret plan to attack Iran are largely centered around the U.S. perception of such a threat with the WMD issue being the core issue for which Iran has decided it needs to challenge U.S. power. I believe France's denouncements of Iran are largely being caused by the realization of just what a large threat this situation has become to the whole world.
Iran has decided that is has enough power and balls to confront the entire Western world and the U.S. in particular with this plan of economic sabotage. I think that the new leader of Iran is a dangerous left-brain male infected with machismo and a god-complex who has probably lost his mind as I have stated before. He has not taken into account any of the effects of his actions on people worldwide, but then the Iranian leadership doesn't much care for any feelings except greed for power over their own people and the quite baffling belief that by acting tough and trying to blackmail other countries they are going to secure peace for their corrupted theocracy's continued oppressive existence.
It is simply impossible for Washington planners to ignore this very real threat to American political and economic power at this point. Iran has chosen a suicidal confrontation with the Empire, as Antiwar.com so lovably calls it, because it's leaders refuse to negotiate. America is a convenient scapegoat to project their people's hatred against so that the stupid, irresponsible leadership of Iran can avoid being overthrown by their own people. Now they risk being overthrown by the Americans.
The reason the U.S. dollar is threatened is because high demand for the U.S. dollar and Treasury Bills exist because foreigners need dollars to purchase resources in the primary markets for commodities, specifically oil. Because the U.S. and England, its subsidiary/sponsor, have controlled the major markets and denominated them in dollars, large numbers of dollars have been required to purchase oil and other commodities.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
"The right wing Israeli government is not so bright either. If they decide to blow up Iran's nuclear reactors, the fallout will kill thousands, poison the regional water supply, and guarantee that when Israel finally gets weak they will totally destroyed by vengeful angry Muslims..."
I pulled this quote out of your blog site.
We are not the best equipped country to destroy the Iranian nuclear plants. For us, it would be a royal pain in the neck. Plus there is the very real threat of Iranian retaliation. That means missiles raining down from Lebanon where Iran's Shiite lapdog, Hizb Allah, sits with 10,000 of the babies ready to go.
That is the likely cost not only of an Israeli attack on Iran, but of an American attack on Iran as well. The American oil and banking establishment throws the party, and we Jews get to pay the bill - in blood. And you know what? Your oil and banking establishment doesn't give a damn. So a few (thousand) Jews die - big deal.
But in our hands is also the Samson option. Israeli nukes needn't be aimed at Iran to do the Americans a favor, but at the Aswan High Dam in Egypt and the various dams on the Euphrates and Tigris - to take genocidal vengeance. If it's bad enough, our missiles can also leave Damascus a burning nuclear pit, not to mention Riyadh and Basra. And if it is really bad enough, a stray missile can hit Rome, another one can hit Berlin, maybe even London. If you are going to die, you might as well take as many of the bastards with you as you can, and wreak vengence on a vicious, Jew-hating world.
Read the story of Samson, Chris. It's in the Book of Judges, in any Bible.
And then pray.
2 - Bliffle
We already see a 30% decline of the dollar against the Euro since BushCo ascended, as well as loss against other currencies (we're doing OK against the Mexican peso however!) The dollar achieved it's prominence by having good longterm value, but that's been thrown away by Bush. Inflation will wipe out savings, which will mainly hurt Big Business since that's who holds most of the savings in the US (I think that this is caused by BB-favorable government measures that has reduced the efficacy of re-investing retained earnings and made simple bribery more attractive - higher ROI).
Most citizens are net debtors so they will do OK (pretty soon their houses will be almost free) which will justify the canny judgement of Joe Sixpak who has defiantly not saved, in spite of all the finger-waggling from his 'betters' in economics and government.
The government will be in chaos as it wheels in all directions attempting to wield it's power in SOME way to keep order. Like Nixons stagflation in the 70s. I suppose they'll attempt price and wage controls, maybe shooting rationing violators.
This whole economy is based on Blue Sky: hope. Once faith in the system leaves there will be a big mess.
3 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
This whole economy is based on Blue Sky: hope.
Sounds to me like 1929 all over again - except that in 1929, folks could throw their own money into the stock exchange of fate and gamble. This time round, the government has taken all of you money and flushed it down the toilet of debt.
Looks like lots of dark clouds stating to block the blue skies, gentlemen. I'd by some gold coins if I were you all - and a troy scale.
4 - RedTard
"This whole economy is based on Blue Sky: hope"
Every economic system is. We rely on that little green piece of paper that you can't eat or wear or live in to buy us those necessities. If people lose faith in that green slip then the whole system is doomed.
5 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Red Tard,
If people lose faith in that green slip then the whole system is doomed.
The key is to think the unthinkable. What happens if? The science fiction novel "Warday" gives a good idea of what happens when your currency becomes absolutely worthless. The novel "Heat" gives an idea of what might happen with runaway global warming. The novel, "The Sixth Winter" gives an idea of a sudden ice age enveloping the world.
When I moved out here, I realized only slowly where I was living. I live less than a mile from Emek Yehoshafát - the Valley of G-d's Judgment. That's the place where the expression "jumpin' jehosaphats!" comes from.
You look across the valley from the south and you see the Old City, Mount Scopus in the distance, and in front of you, the place where G-d is suppoed to judge all those who have persecuted my people. When you look across that valley, the prophecies in the Bible look a whole lot less unthinkable than from some place in the Midwestern United States.
I've spent a lot of time thinking about what might happen if those prophecies came true, and how they might come true. Our scholars warn that the prophecy "the king of the south shall come against the king of the north" indicates a coalition of Arab nations led by Persia - Iran - coming against Europe, or possibly America (this is recent), or both (also recent). When I say scholars, I don't mean academentia patients with PHD's and egos the size of hatchbacks - I mean rabbis who lived hundreds of years ago.
For forecasting hundreds of years into the future, these rabbis have come pretty close to what we see now, wouldn't you say? Saudi money financing Arab terror that attacks America and Iranians threatening to shut down the dollar?
Anyway, the simplest thing you can do to protect yourself is get those gold coins. The going might get rough in the next little bit.
6 - jackie
We need a serious dose of SANITY right now..
If we are to have any chance at saving lives, we need to stop this rush to war again..
Everyone is yelling about how bad it will be, but what are we/they doing about it?
We point out that a nuclear war benefits no one except the bomb makers. There will be no water, no food, no light and all, because?????
As a 'country' we have have broken any law that gets in the way of some global congomation that wants to control the oil, the money, the power.
We have invaded countries based on lies and deception.
We have the largest stockpile of nuclear bombs in the world.
We spend more money on bombs, on guns, on new, more deadly ways to kill and maim, then anyone in the world.
We twist international law and American law to justify our actions.
We demand that countries do as we say, and use the threat of our money and our guns against any and all who question us.
We state with bullets, bombs and soldiers that we will enforce UN motions and laws, but
'We' ignore the fact that Israel has had over 160 UN/ Security Council resolutions brought against it, refuses all attempts to moniter and regulate their fully funded, fully fuctioning 200+ nuclear warheads. We ignore the fact that the Palestinian people are being killed, homes distroyed, fences being built by the Israeli government, using American tax-dollars, We are silent, because some-one might say that we are being anti-semitic???
But yet we go to war against Iraq, threaten the rest of the middle east/ world using the threat from nuclear weapons, protection of personal freedoms and democracy as our mantra.
Do we want our children, grandchildren to have to clean up the mess we are causing?
Do we want a nuclear war over oil and control of the world financial markets?
Are the Iranian's setting up their oil exchange using their currency?
No, they are doing it using Euro's.
So, it is not about having control of the money, it is about our continuing abuse of our position as world power and our government's mis-use of power and money.
No-body trusts us and sadly, at the moment they have no reason to start...
Every-one needs to really think about what an attack on Iran could cause.
How many more people will die? today? tomorrow?
Iran, regardless of anything else, as a signatory of the no- nuclear treatise (what-ever it is called) is allowed to have a Nuclear program for peaceful means, they are far from having nuclear weapons.
And before we get sucked into the 'fear-fantasy',
'We' already have 1000's of nuclear weapons and Israel has 100's, there is no threat to us, so WHY are we really going to war???
Oil?
Money?
We have more weapons?
We can???
None of those reasons are good enough for putting my/your children, our country, our very world, in harm's way...
We can stop this. We have to.
It is time for the voice of the people to be heard. We are running out of time..
peace
Jackie.
7 - Dave Nalle
I suspected this would bring out the doom and gloomers.
Here are some facts to consider.
• Iran is responsible for only about 6% of the world's oil production - less than the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia. In fact about half of what the US produces.
• Almost all Iranian oil goes to European nations.
• That oil production accounts for almost 90% of their total national economy.
• All of that oil goes through 9 refineries located in a very small geographical region easily accessible by sea and by air and essentially indefensible.
• None of the other major oil producing nations in the world is likely to join this Iranian market with the possible exception of Venezuela whose production is barely over 1% of the world supply.
Ok, given all of that, here are a couple of scenarios:
• Iran starts up its market and no one significant joins it. Since it's only 6% of the world market and almost all of the oil is going to Europe, the impact is not actually devastating as suggested by the article, but relatively minor for the United States, which goes elsewhere for its own oil, and sees a loss of dollar investment which is on a scale commensurate with Iran's share of the world market, or even less because it's only the Europeans buying in Euros. It's not possible for an Iranian oil market to have impact on the US dollar out of proportion to its share in world oil production. All the US has to do is convince a few major players not to buy from Iran which they will do because they're already heavily invested in dollars, and the market becomes an economic disaster for Iran and has limited impact on the US.
• Not surprisingly the US considers this action the economic equivalent of war, and given all of Iran's other excesses the US has no problem justifying action against them, but instead of actually going to war with Iran, they merely bomb the hell out of Iranian oil ports, pipelines and refineries, shutting down their oil production. This is an attack which Iran essentially cannot defend against and which eliminates them as oil producers alltogether AND totally destroys their economy leading to a pro-western revolution in response to the US promise to rebuild their oil facilities. With Iran no longer selling oil the impact of their new market on the world economy and the US dollar is nonexistent. The US would probably bomb their nuclear reactors at the same time, of course. And, of course, this is a war with minimal risk of US lives and relatively low cost for return. Hard to resist, really.
So is the first scenario attractive enough to justify the risk of the second one? No sane person would think so, but the Iranians might. But either way, the impact of this move on their part to the US is going to be much more limited than the article suggests, if only because Iran does not control enough of the oil supply to cause more than a moderate amount of dollar inflation. And if the impact does seem significant, their oil production is so vulnerable that 'turning off' their oil is a very viable option.
So what this idea comes down to is a either a very empty threat or a suicidally stupid idea.
Dave
8 - nitpicker
"So what this idea comes down to is a either a very empty threat or a suicidally stupid idea."
We have the alternative of changing the foreign policy that got us here.
9 - nitpicker
It's better than playing Russian Roulette.
Or should I call it Iranian Roulette?
10 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Dave Nalle sums up about the Iranian euro-bourse,
"So what this idea comes down to is a either a very empty threat or a suicidally stupid idea."
Given the facts you present, all this is fine. The bottom line is that if Iran is attacked, it will respond by striking us. It is not likely that the US really gives a damn - so a few (thousand or so) Jews die. It's no skin of their butts. This is also dealt with in my peice "Lo Norá - the Iranian Missile Threat"
And that is the issue I addressed above in my first comment, and in my comments about the prophecies in the Book of Daniel where the "king of the south" pushes at the "king of the north" and is crushed. Your scenario supplies the second half of the prophecy.
No gloom - no doom, just a lot of dead Jews.
But if we're pushed into a corner, then watch out. Someone is liable to want to play the "Samson option" that I outlined. Those nukes we have can serve us too.
11 - nitpicker
"Those nukes we have can serve us too."
That is the reason Iran wants nukes.
The US needs a nuke-free Middle East.
12 - ss
I'd have to say Dave's summation of why Iran's new market will fail pretty well sums it up. We have all the major buyers with us (when it comes to protecting the dollar), and Iran can't get enough suppliers to force the issue. IMHO.
The only thing I'd point out is that nobody is bombing anybody's pipelines or production facilities while oil is over $50 a barrel. As pointless as confronting us on this issue is for Iran, it would be nearly as senseless for us to endanger our economy over a nuclear program that's 25yrs old, has had a full set of plans & working centifuges for over five years, and has failed to produce a single working nuke.
When oil gets back under $40 a barrel, then anything could happen. Civilian casualties up front and unforseeable chains of events harming our allies appearantly equals job security in DC, so...
Still my bet is Iran's dancing so hard because their economy is such a mess they can't afford sanctions, and that gives us the leverage to avoid another 'bump at the pump'.
13 - nitpicker
"I'd have to say Dave's summation of why Iran's new market will fail pretty well sums it up."
What was Dave's summation in 2002 about our war failing in Iraq?
14 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Nitpicker quotes me and claims,
""Those nukes we have can serve us too."
That is the reason Iran wants nukes." and concludes that the US needs a nuke free Middle East.
That's nice.
The Americans could have had a nuke free Middle East by shoving the Arab refugees down the throats of the host nations and forcing them to absorb them. We absorbed the Jewish refugees from Arab countries, you know.
We need our nukes to protect us from the Arab states we have been unable to thoroughly punish into submission BECAUSE OF AMERICAN POLICY PROTECTING THE BASTARDS! Iran wants nukes because they want to be an empire. This was true when the shah ruled also. And he had no dsesire to destroy Israel.
We need a Middle East free of Arab nukes. The hell with what America needs.
15 - tommyd
Ruvy, with all due respect, "punishing Arabs into submission" will never work. Any Israeli aggression is always met with more Arab violence. Arabs only submit to Allah. Arabs respond to violence with more violence. Even the obliteration of Iraq by the almighty United States only caused insurgents to kill more and more, fight harder and harder, and bring the whole bloody Iraq mess to a complete quagmire. And, I highly doubt that it's only the United States that prevents Israelis from waging genocide on Arabs....the entire international community would have a problem with that scenario.
Israel says Hamas' won't recognize Israel's right to exist. Hamas says Israel should officially establish it's borders before it can be recognized. That demand by Hamas doesn't seem to warrant Israel's threat to assassinate Hamas leader Haniya. But what do I know.
As for Iran and their bourse, I wish them all the best in their endeavors. I hope it collapses the dollar, and then collapses the bloated and diseased American Empire/New World Order so we can all return to basic sanity again. Iranians are not to blame for pointing out the incredible hypocrisy of Israel and the United States. The Iranian "threat" is being hyped up to incredible heights by warmongers and world bankers without a shred of rational thinking or compromise.
I can feel the insults coming my way now........
16 - Ruvy in Jerusalem
Tommy,
The era of punishing the Arabs into submission has pssed. It is no longer an option. Genocide still is an option if we are backed up against a wall where it no longer matters what the international community thinks.
That could yet happen.
But you raise an interesting point in your comment. Arabs only submit to Allah.
Well, if we Jews served G-d and not some pile of western bullshit, we would not have the problems of worrying about what America thinks.
Submitting only to G-d is what we shold be doing also. The result would be that there would be reconciliation between the Children of Abraham, we would be okay and the rest of you would be screwed but good - you would see the force of the G-d of Israel and believe you me, you would not like it.
You will yet see that force anyway. But because we Jews have not served our G-d, we too will suffer.
17 - nitpicker
Yeah -- let's just all blame God for our stupidity.
18 - Dave Nalle
The only thing I'd point out is that nobody is bombing anybody's pipelines or production facilities while oil is over $50 a barrel. As pointless as confronting us on this issue is for Iran, it would be nearly as senseless for us to endanger our economy over a nuclear program that's 25yrs old, has had a full set of plans & working centifuges for over five years, and has failed to produce a single working nuke.
You missed the point both in the article and my response. The threat isn't the nukes, it's the potential of hurting the dollar. That's what would make us use force. Wiping out the nukes would just be a bonus.
What was Dave's summation in 2002 about our war failing in Iraq?
I think that at that time I was still in favor of disbanding 90% of the US military and assassinating Saddam. It was too early in the process to have an opinion on the outcome of the war itself.
Dave
19 - Dave Nalle
As for Iran and their bourse, I wish them all the best in their endeavors. I hope it collapses the dollar, and then collapses the bloated and diseased American Empire/New World Order so we can all return to basic sanity again.
Well, Tommy, that's about the only way the totalitarian socialist state you favor could come into being. Then we could round up all the blacks, Jews and Mexicans and put them in camps and make America a white nation again, right?
Dave
20 - Dave Nalle
BTW, Ruvy. Horrible though the loss of life might be from an Iranian nuke in Israel, it might be the best thing that could happen for you guys in the long run. It would likely be the straw that broke the camels back on islamic extremism, and discredit those who oppose Israel once and for all.
Dave
21 - nitpicker
“What was Dave's summation in 2002 about our war failing in Iraq?"
"I think that at that time I was still in favor of disbanding 90% of the US military and assassinating Saddam. It was too early in the process to have an opinion on the outcome of the war itself.”
What? Abandon our military before bin Laden and Al Qaeda had been dealt with?
So, you agreed with Bush that Saddam was our real problem?
Weird.
Why should anyone now have any confidence in your assessment of Iran?
22 - MCH
"Why should anyone now have any confidence in your assessment of Iran?"
We shouldn't, then or now, Iraq or Iran, anything to do with military strategy.
23 - Just Chris
Thank you all for your comments. Some of you have some very strong opinions wow. I just wanted to comment real quick on Ruvy's post. Israel is definitely in a weak position when you look at her actual strategic situation. The whole Israeli problem is that when they settled (resettled) in the Middle East they pushed out a bunch of Palestinians as you all know. (See the book The Haj for a decent background from an Israeli perspective). The problem is the Palestinians believe that they were robbed of their land, whereas the Israelis’ believe that the Palestinians are on their land that was stolen from them. So the question is about who owns the land. That is why the land for peace idea has never been too hot among the more extreme groups on either side. Land is power is money is survival. No one wants to give up their piece of the pie.
Now the Palestinians have a bunch of crooked governments in the Arab world backing them up because they need a 5 minute hate directed against some external enemy in order to keep their people distracted from the fact that it is the Arab governments themselves that have been crushing them. Basically the game is played on this playing field. The Israelis’ have the U.S. in their corner most of the time and occasionally some others. I believe Ruvy is right when he (or she?) states that the establishment will sell Israel out if it has to in order to preserve its own money and power. The catch is that many people would support a defense of Israel. I myself don’t believe Israel should be abandoned to its own.
The problem is there is so much projected fear in this area of the world that it is impossible to say what will happen and to whom. It is a question of identity and identity politics. Who do you believe you are, and how does your identity determine how you see things? My identity is simply as a human being. In parts of the world where people kill people based on their identity as out groups, it is very difficult to see that perspective because of the fear that being an out group means you will be destroyed. As a consequence the out group develops an identity based upon the discrimination which they received and incorporates that pain and fear as part of their belief system.
The solution on an individual level is that you can move beyond these identities, but the choice is entirely up to you. If you cling to your fear and pain eventually either you will project that fear as evil and destroy or take something from someone else, or you will be the scapegoat of that someone else who destroys or takes something of yours. Identity politics is a pain in the butt and harms the spirit of humanity in this way.
Anyway, just some thoughts. I'll try to post another article in a few days. Thanks for the comments again.
24 - Howard
Ruvy, you said "Well, if we Jews served G-d and not some pile of western bullshit, we would not have the problems of worrying about what America thinks.
Submitting only to G-d is what we shold be doing also. The result would be that there would be reconciliation between the Children of Abraham, we would be okay and the rest of you would be screwed but good - you would see the force of the G-d of Israel and believe you me, you would not like it."
It's my impression the US has been supporting your Israel since the land was last "divided" up, leaving the Palestians sucking hind tit. Comments like yours make me wish that support had been terminated 50 years ago. Believe me, our relations today with the Arab nations of the world would be much different.
Howard
25 - Dave Nalle
What? Abandon our military before bin Laden and Al Qaeda had been dealt with?
So, you agreed with Bush that Saddam was our real problem?
What on earth are you talking about, Nit. I didn't say anything about Saddam being the real problem or about dealing or not dealing with bin Laden and Al Qaeda. At the time I favored a non-interventionist and certainly non-invasion foreign policy or at most a policy based around limited, very targeted intervention rather than nation building. It would have been a lower risk, much less messy approach to take.
And it's not 'abandon our military', it's restructure our military. Which I still think we should do - especially in light of how things have gone in Iraq.
Why should anyone now have any confidence in your assessment of Iran?
Because unlike most of you I've lived in the middle east, have researched the subject and know what I'm talking about? I still think that full-out invasion and nation building are not the best approach to the region, but that doesn't mean that it isn't a viable, if very slow and expensive course to take.
Dave